Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LX Offseason Edition)

KingRobb02 · Post #1181 » by **KingRobb02** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 8:53 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:It's solely WARP based?

Yeah. Completely objective.

silent1900 · Post #1182 » by **silent1900** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 9:12 pm

I do not care for Afflalo, but I have a very hard time believing that he does not contribute more to a team's success than several of the guys on that list.

BadMofoPimp · Post #1183 » by **BadMofoPimp** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 9:18 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:Bradford Doolittle released his list of the NBA's top point guards. In an indication of the opinion on Afflalo outside of Orlando, he is not in the top 18.

In my humble opinion, Afflalo is not a Point Guard. I wouldn't rank him amongst the top 32 PG's if not further down he list. He just doesn't have the handles, court vision and ability to lead the team as a PG.

KingRobb02 · Post #1184 » by **KingRobb02** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 9:20 pm

BadMofoPimp wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:Bradford Doolittle released his list of the NBA's top point guards. In an indication of the opinion on Afflalo outside of Orlando, he is not in the top 18.

In my humble opinion, Afflalo is not a Point Guard. I wouldn't rank him amongst the top 32 PG's if not further down he list. He just doesn't have the handles, court vision and ability to lead the team as a PG.

Sorry, just fixed that. Thanks for pointing it out

j_n · Post #1185 » by **j_n** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 9:24 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:It's solely WARP based?

Yeah. Completely objective.

I dont know what is this WARP thing but any stat that puts JR Smith as a top 7 SG has to be flawed.

Post #1186 » by **Bensational** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 9:38 pm

How is warp rating calculated? And how is a projected warp rate calculated?

I'd rank Monta, Klay Thompson, Mayo and JJ over anyone on that list from 6 onwards. AA too, actually. But that's purely opinion.

rcklsscognition · Post #1187 » by **rcklsscognition** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 10:19 pm

Bensational wrote:How is warp rating calculated? And how is a projected warp rate calculated?

I'd rank Monta, Klay Thompson, Mayo and JJ over anyone on that list from 6 onwards. AA too, actually. But that's purely opinion.

Sort of complicated. But, it calculates a players added value compared to an average nba player at their position. Win Shares uses Dean Oliver's offensive and defensive ratings to determine a player's contribution in marginal points on offense and defense; these numbers are then linked to wins by dividing by the league's marginal points per win.

The complete formula is: TmAst/TmFGM * (1.53 - 1.442 * [Ast/Min / (TmAst/(TmMin/5))] -0.041 * ((OReb/Min)*48) - 0.787*Usage + 0.014*(3A/FGA)^2*(1/Usage)^2)

More here: http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=1858

MasterGMer · Post #1188 » by **MasterGMer** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 10:36 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:
Bensational wrote:How is warp rating calculated? And how is a projected warp rate calculated?

I'd rank Monta, Klay Thompson, Mayo and JJ over anyone on that list from 6 onwards. AA too, actually. But that's purely opinion.

Sort of complicated. But, it calculates a players added value compared to an average nba player at their position. Win Shares uses Dean Oliver's offensive and defensive ratings to determine a player's contribution in marginal points on offense and defense; these numbers are then linked to wins by dividing by the league's marginal points per win.

The complete formula is: TmAst/TmFGM * (1.53 - 1.442 * [Ast/Min / (TmAst/(TmMin/5))] -0.041 * ((OReb/Min)*48) - 0.787*Usage + 0.014*(3A/FGA)^2*(1/Usage)^2)

More here: http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=1858

Is this calculation always correct? What was the projection last year this time? Who was among the leaders?

rcklsscognition · Post #1189 » by **rcklsscognition** » Fri Aug 2, 2013 10:48 pm

It appears fairly accurate. Hard to find database of old projections though. Hollinger has a similar stat called EWA. Afflalo was 12th best SG in EWA in 2011-2012

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

OrlandO · Post #1190 » by **OrlandO** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 3:37 am

Oden signs two year deal with Heat (2nd yr player option)

The Real Dalic · Post #1191 » by **The Real Dalic** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 4:03 am

tiderulz wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:Oh ok. That sucks then. I was hoping we would buy him out instead.

a buyout would still count against the cap

Oh really? I didn't know that.

RickB-Orlando · Post #1192 » by **RickB-Orlando** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 8:22 am

The Real Dalic wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:Oh ok. That sucks then. I was hoping we would buy him out instead.

a buyout would still count against the cap

Oh really? I didn't know that.

Either way, it's a 50% cap hit the next two years based on the guaranteed salary. Magic are responsible for paying any difference between what he receives from another team (assuming he signs somewhere) and that number.

The advantage of a buyout is they might have been able to pay less. The advantage to Harrington of a buyout was themMagic could have dealt him anywhere if they could have gotten value, versus Al now choosing which suitors he finds most attractive.

Apparently he didn't have much value or surely Henny would have tried to get something. He'll go ring chase somewhere. Personally I thin Al's a pretty quality guy and if healthy has the ability to contribute a solid 12-16 minutes per game (heck, maybe 20) but he'd have either struggled for PT here or held back our younger players. Best for all involved for him to move on.

The Real Dalic · Post #1193 » by **The Real Dalic** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 5:54 pm

RickB-Orlando wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:
tiderulz wrote:a buyout would still count against the cap

Oh really? I didn't know that.

Either way, it's a 50% cap hit the next two years based on the guaranteed salary. Magic are responsible for paying any difference between what he receives from another team (assuming he signs somewhere) and that number.

The advantage of a buyout is they might have been able to pay less. The advantage to Harrington of a buyout was themMagic could have dealt him anywhere if they could have gotten value, versus Al now choosing which suitors he finds most attractive.

Apparently he didn't have much value or surely Henny would have tried to get something. He'll go ring chase somewhere. Personally I thin Al's a pretty quality guy and if healthy has the ability to contribute a solid 12-16 minutes per game (heck, maybe 20) but he'd have either struggled for PT here or held back our younger players. Best for all involved for him to move on.

Thanks!

I didn't know much about buying someone out, so this really helps.

The Real Dalic · Post #1194 » by **The Real Dalic** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 5:56 pm

Is Lamarcus Aldridge a free agent next offseason? Cause if so, if the Magic could draft a Wiggins or Parker and sign LMA next offseason I think we'd be set.

rcklsscognition · Post #1195 » by **rcklsscognition** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 6:50 pm

The Real Dalic wrote:Is Lamarcus Aldridge a free agent this offseason? Cause if so, if the Magic could draft a Wiggins or Parker and sign LMA next offseason I think we'd be set.

No, not even next summer. Got two more years. Free agent summer of 2015.

The Real Dalic · Post #1196 » by **The Real Dalic** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 6:54 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:Is Lamarcus Aldridge a free agent this offseason? Cause if so, if the Magic could draft a Wiggins or Parker and sign LMA next offseason I think we'd be set.

No, not even next summer. Got two more years. Free agent summer of 2015.

Damn, I was watching Dentons mailbag yesterday and I heard him say theres 2 gruntled players from Portland and Minnesota that will become free agents next offseason. I assumed it was LMA and Kevin Love.

rcklsscognition · Post #1197 » by **rcklsscognition** » Sat Aug 3, 2013 9:05 pm

The Real Dalic wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:
The Real Dalic wrote:Is Lamarcus Aldridge a free agent this offseason? Cause if so, if the Magic could draft a Wiggins or Parker and sign LMA next offseason I think we'd be set.

No, not even next summer. Got two more years. Free agent summer of 2015.

Damn, I was watching Dentons mailbag yesterday and I heard him say theres 2 gruntled players from Portland and Minnesota that will become free agents next offseason. I assumed it was LMA and Kevin Love.

He was talking about LMA, but got it wrong. Portland would be wise to move him this season though before the deadline.

In other news, both Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless grew 1 inch this season, they are now listed at 6'9". We have 7 players over 6'9" on the roster, and 5 of them are not centers.

Our Dwight Howard trade exception expires one week from today (August 10th).

Neon1 · Post #1198 » by **Neon1** » Sun Aug 4, 2013 12:06 am

rcklsscognition wrote:
In other news, both Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless grew 1 inch this season, they are now listed at 6'9". We have 7 players over 6'9" on the roster, and 5 of them are not centers.

They also moved Oladipo's listed height back to 6'4" after raising it to 6'5" for no apparent reason. Harkless real height was always 6'9" I believe. Pretty sure he was measured at 6'8.5" at the combine. Harris was 6'7.75". Nicholson was 6'9.5" at the combine I think.

KillMonger · Post #1199 » by **KillMonger** » Sun Aug 4, 2013 1:29 am

Bit of feel good news

Magic owner Rich DeVos is 87 years old, but he has no plans to sell the club, as Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel writes in an early Eastern Conference preview. Instead, he has given his four children shares of the Magic with the intent that the family will continue to own the team for decades to come.

OrlandO · Post #1200 » by **OrlandO** » Sun Aug 4, 2013 2:27 am

Bobby Ray wrote:Bit of feel good news

Magic owner Rich DeVos is 87 years old, but he has no plans to sell the club, as Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel writes in an early Eastern Conference preview. Instead, he has given his four children shares of the Magic with the intent that the family will continue to own the team for decades to come.

great news