Otto Porter

[Wizardspride]

Hello everyone, just curious, what do you guys think Porter's future stats look like in 4 years? (I'm doing a Build Your Own Team draft for the next five years, and I picked Otto Porter )

Maybe...

16.5 pts 46% FG, 1.5 3pt made, .378 3pt FG%
3.8 ast
6.5rbs
1.5stl

Does this look pretty realistic?

Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Hello everyone, just curious, what do you guys think Porter's future stats look like in 4 years? (I'm doing a Build Your Own Team draft for the next five years, and I picked Otto Porter )

Maybe...

16.5 pts 46% FG, 1.5 3pt made, .378 3pt FG%
3.8 ast
6.5rbs
1.5stl

Does this look pretty realistic?

Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate.

Agree, that looks correct.

[stevemcqueen1]

Hello everyone, just curious, what do you guys think Porter's future stats look like in 4 years? (I'm doing a Build Your Own Team draft for the next five years, and I picked Otto Porter )

Maybe...

16.5 pts 46% FG, 1.5 3pt made, .378 3pt FG%
3.8 ast
6.5rbs
1.5stl

Does this look pretty realistic?

PPG might be a bit high. The FG % will be higher than 46 IMO. I think he's capable of shooting above 50 by year 4, and 40 % from 3.

[AFM]

Didn't like the pick then. Don't like it now. Passing on Noel for a role player was stupid.

[Dat2U]

Yeah, I'm having a bit of buyer's remorse. Noel would have been my choice but I didn't have any problem with Porter being the pick going into draft night. But now I can't help but think Noel would have answered some long term questions at C that we may not be able to find an answer for elsewhere. Then I look back at Webster's season and see that he had the 2nd highest WS/48 of any SF in the East least year (only behind George). So yeah, I'm really hoping Porter works on his strength, 3 pt shot and off the dribble game and proves his worthiness as the 3rd pick.

[tontoz]

I assumed all along that Noel would be gone when we picked. When several teams passed on him i assumed that there were long term medical red flags. If that was not the case then passing on him could definitely bite us in the ass down the road.

[Nivek]

I had Noel rated slightly ahead of Porter. But only slightly. Porter rates in YODA as a solid prospect worthy of being picked in the top 5.

[Dat2U]

I assumed all along that Noel would be gone when we picked. When several teams passed on him i assumed that there were long term medical red flags. If that was not the case then passing on him could definitely bite us in the ass down the road.

IMO the only reason to pass on Noel was if he was red flagged by docs. If the docs gave him a clean bill of health then shame on the Wizards for being too scared to select him.

[AFM]

Right. If other teams passed on him too, but that just proves that most GMs are incompetent.

[pancakes3]

Hello everyone, just curious, what do you guys think Porter's future stats look like in 4 years? (I'm doing a Build Your Own Team draft for the next five years, and I picked Otto Porter )

Maybe...

16.5 pts 46% FG, 1.5 3pt made, .378 3pt FG%
3.8 ast
6.5rbs
1.5stl

Does this look pretty realistic?

Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate.

Agree, that looks correct.

With those shooting percentages and attempts, to make the math work Porter can take between 10-15 shots a game, but have to shoot 50% from 2. He can shoot less at a higher percentage, or more at a lower percentage. 10 shots a game at those percentages, he'll come out at exactly 11 ppg without FT's factored in. 15 shots a game will make him a 15.8 ppg scorer without FT's. Assuming a 2ish ppg bump from FT's (Estimated from Tayshaun Prince's averages. He could surprise us all and get 4-5 ppg from the FT line), Porter can hit 16.5 ppg by taking 13-14 shots a game.

Doable, but pretty damn high. Gerald Wallace only had 1 season where he topped 14 fga/36. Iggy also. Kirilenko's never taken that many shots. But hey, fga doesn't include getting to the line. I'm just saying, for the game that we're expecting him to play: off-ball, spot-up shooter that doesn't get much iso opportunities and the FTs afforded such players, 16.5 ppg is asking a lot.

I think 15 ppg 2.5 apg 6 rpg 1spg would make Porter an unmitigated success in my book. The real outlier is 3.8 apg. I don't foresee any forward in the league (short of Lebron) netting that many dimes.

[Higga]

On any other team I would have taken Noel, but no way do I trust this FO when it comes to:

1. Developing raw talent
2. Rehabbing someone coming off a torn ACL

Porter was the best pick for US. Good chance Noel has the better career but I still think Porter will make a good 3rd Musketeer to Wall and Beal.

[Ruzious]

I would have preferred Noel, but it's way too soon to be thinking buyer's remorse. I'm really looking forward to the high team BBIQ we'll see on the court by midseason - with Beal and Porter complementing Wall - and Webster coming off the bench firing in 3's. Praying that Nene comes in healthy and stays healthy.

[Zonkerbl]

I would have preferred Cody Zeller.

[rl25g]

I had Noel rated slightly ahead of Porter. But only slightly. Porter rates in YODA as a solid prospect worthy of being picked in the top 5.

not sure if you have shown this or not
but who are some people who rated similarly to Porter in YODA ?

[Nivek]

I had Noel rated slightly ahead of Porter. But only slightly. Porter rates in YODA as a solid prospect worthy of being picked in the top 5.

not sure if you have shown this or not
but who are some people who rated similarly to Porter in YODA ?

From the statistical doppelganger page in YODA, here are the players in the database who showed up as "most similar" to Porter:

- Will Barton (SO)
- Jared Dudley (SO)
- Bradley Beal (FR)
- Chase Budinger (FR)
- Wesley Johnson (JR)
- Jimmy Butler (JR)
- Gordon Hayward (SO)
- Antawn Jamison (FR)
- Caron Butler (SO)

No big stars, but most of 'em are/were good players.

[GhostsOfGil]

I had Noel rated slightly ahead of Porter. But only slightly. Porter rates in YODA as a solid prospect worthy of being picked in the top 5.

not sure if you have shown this or not
but who are some people who rated similarly to Porter in YODA ?

From the statistical doppelganger page in YODA, here are the players in the database who showed up as "most similar" to Porter:

- Will Barton (SO)
- Jared Dudley (SO)
- Bradley Beal (FR)
- Chase Budinger (FR)
- Wesley Johnson (JR)
- Jimmy Butler (JR)
- Gordon Hayward (SO)
- Antawn Jamison (FR)
- Caron Butler (SO)

No big stars, but most of 'em are/were good players.

And who were Noel's doppelgangers?

[Nivek]

Noel was relatively unique (at least among the players in my database; at least compared to Porter).

His closest comps:

- Tim Duncan (FR)
- Greg Monroe (FR)
- Hasheem Thabeet (SO)
- Andre Drummond (FR)
- Derrick Favors (FR)

Then Taj Gibson (FR, SO, JR) and Gorgui Dieng.

Noel was about as similar to Monroe as Porter was to Caron.

[closg00]

I would have preferred Cody Zeller.

+1 Per my sig. In this year/one-shot at the playoffs before heading into FA 13/14, I felt our playoff bench and bolstering of our front court would have been complemented nicely by the addition of Zeller, especially given the FO's desire to bring back Webster....but we had/have too-much invested in Ves

I sincerely hope that we show Porter the ropes and send him to the D-League while we wait for him to fill-out into an NBA body. We can give him garbage time minutes later in the season.

[stevemcqueen1]

I would have preferred Noel, but it's way too soon to be thinking buyer's remorse. I'm really looking forward to the high team BBIQ we'll see on the court by midseason - with Beal and Porter complementing Wall - and Webster coming off the bench firing in 3's. Praying that Nene comes in healthy and stays healthy.

I thought I would have preferred Noel, but when the draft got here and he was actually available, I found I was relieved we picked Porter instead. Noel falling to 6 is an indication to me that his body and his knee were much bigger problems for NBA teams than those of us who supported Noel realized. He was supposed to be the slam dunk #1 pick. Those guys don't fall like that unless something is wrong.

If Charlotte had gone running up to the podium to pick Noel immediately after we made our selection, I'd be more worried about passing on him.

I had Porter second on my board to Noel, but very close with Bennett and Zeller. I think I'm happiest with Porter, we had him #1 on our board and I'm happy we got our guy. I also think he's going to be the best two way player from that group by far. I think he was the best two way player in the class.

[stevemcqueen1]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.