Otto Porter

[stevemcqueen1]

On any other team I would have taken Noel, but no way do I trust this FO when it comes to:

1. Developing raw talent
2. Rehabbing someone coming off a torn ACL

Porter was the best pick for US. Good chance Noel has the better career but I still think Porter will make a good 3rd Musketeer to Wall and Beal.

I had similar concerns.

Our track record with developing raw players is awful, especially bigs. Scared me with Bennett too, though I thought he at least had the offensive skills to command some minutes on the floor.

I thought our best chances at actually having the pick work was to pick someone with definite go to skills and a very mature personality--Zeller or Porter.

[ChiTownLegend85]

Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate.

Agree, that looks correct.

With those shooting percentages and attempts, to make the math work Porter can take between 10-15 shots a game, but have to shoot 50% from 2. He can shoot less at a higher percentage, or more at a lower percentage. 10 shots a game at those percentages, he'll come out at exactly 11 ppg without FT's factored in. 15 shots a game will make him a 15.8 ppg scorer without FT's. Assuming a 2ish ppg bump from FT's (Estimated from Tayshaun Prince's averages. He could surprise us all and get 4-5 ppg from the FT line), Porter can hit 16.5 ppg by taking 13-14 shots a game.

Doable, but pretty damn high. Gerald Wallace only had 1 season where he topped 14 fga/36. Iggy also. Kirilenko's never taken that many shots. But hey, fga doesn't include getting to the line. I'm just saying, for the game that we're expecting him to play: off-ball, spot-up shooter that doesn't get much iso opportunities and the FTs afforded such players, 16.5 ppg is asking a lot.

I think 15 ppg 2.5 apg 6 rpg 1spg would make Porter an unmitigated success in my book. The real outlier is 3.8 apg. I don't foresee any forward in the league (short of Lebron) netting that many dimes.

Wow, great post. Very informative, and you backed it all up. Thank you for your time sir, great job.

Oh and in regards to the dimes, 7 SFs this past season averaged over 4 ast per game... 8 if Iguodala is included... that being said, maybe 3.8 ast is still to high... so maybe more like... 3.7? haha just kidding. Maybe 2.5-3 ast:)

[closg00]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Zeller received 5 votes in the draft thread, I can assure you that I was one of those votes.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1252608

[stevemcqueen1]

With those shooting percentages and attempts, to make the math work Porter can take between 10-15 shots a game, but have to shoot 50% from 2. He can shoot less at a higher percentage, or more at a lower percentage. 10 shots a game at those percentages, he'll come out at exactly 11 ppg without FT's factored in. 15 shots a game will make him a 15.8 ppg scorer without FT's. Assuming a 2ish ppg bump from FT's (Estimated from Tayshaun Prince's averages. He could surprise us all and get 4-5 ppg from the FT line), Porter can hit 16.5 ppg by taking 13-14 shots a game.

Doable, but pretty damn high. Gerald Wallace only had 1 season where he topped 14 fga/36. Iggy also. Kirilenko's never taken that many shots. But hey, fga doesn't include getting to the line. I'm just saying, for the game that we're expecting him to play: off-ball, spot-up shooter that doesn't get much iso opportunities and the FTs afforded such players, 16.5 ppg is asking a lot.

I think 15 ppg 2.5 apg 6 rpg 1spg would make Porter an unmitigated success in my book. The real outlier is 3.8 apg. I don't foresee any forward in the league (short of Lebron) netting that many dimes.

Porter has a definite knack for getting to the FT line. It's a notable part of his game. I also think he'll get a lot of post up opportunities to create for himself.

He should find his 3 ball range well before his fourth season. As rapidly as he added it to his college game, and as well as he shot from range as a college player, he should eventually be a reliable shooter, not a streak shooter. He was a knockdown shooter last season who could be counted on to almost always make the open ones.

Porter simply doesn't have any bad habits. He doesn't take bad shots and he barely ever turns it over. He's going to have high shooting percentages once he has his 3 ball. I expect him to shoot over 50% by year 4, over 40% from 3, and rarely turn it over. He's not going to need a lot of shots or possessions to get to 15 PPG and I think he's got a chance to get some assists in the offense we're likely to run. It's going to be all transition scoring and heavy on the ball movement in the half court like San Antonio. We don't have any ISO dribblers aside from Wall. Pass penetration is how we're going to get the ball inside for everyone except Wall and it'll be how we get open perimeter shots. We'll have a higher percentage of assisted buckets than most teams as a result, so everyone's assist numbers should be inflated.

[stevemcqueen1]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Zeller received 5 votes in the draft thread, I can assure you that I was one of those votes.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1252608

Oh I believe you. I just wish you and his other supporters had been there to back me up in the draft thread. Wasn't any fun to talk about Zeller up until the combine. Then after he killed the combine, being Pro-Zeller simply meant that you wouldn't be immediately flamed.

[closg00]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Zeller received 5 votes in the draft thread, I can assure you that I was one of those votes.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1252608

Oh I believe you. I just wish you and his other supporters had been there to back me up in the draft thread. Wasn't any fun to talk about Zeller up until the combine. Then after he killed the combine, being Pro-Zeller simply meant that you wouldn't be immediately flamed.

The lack of Zeller talk was resignation that Porter was going to be the pick, the prior year Beal was a lock. A few brave soles advocated for Drummond. Kevin had Zeller as a top-5 pick in Yoda so I was confident that he would be the anti-Vesely.

[pancakes3]

I'm still on the Porter train, fwiw. Logjam and physical measurements aside, I really like Porter's game and I think the hometown Hoya factor plays a role. All things considered and emotions under check, it'd probably be a coinflip. However, I hate to bash Porter before he plays even a preseason minute but goddang I was pissed when we didn't pick up Noel. I mean, what kind of knee injury is prohibitive at 1-5 but fine for pick 6 onwards? To me, a young buck either bounces back (like Dejuan Blair, Adrian Peterson - twice, etc.) or he completely flames out like Greg Oden. There shouldn't be an in-between where he regains 75% of his game.

[hands11]

I had Noel rated slightly ahead of Porter. But only slightly. Porter rates in YODA as a solid prospect worthy of being picked in the top 5.

not sure if you have shown this or not
but who are some people who rated similarly to Porter in YODA ?

From the statistical doppelganger page in YODA, here are the players in the database who showed up as "most similar" to Porter:

- Will Barton (SO)
- Jared Dudley (SO)
- Bradley Beal (FR)
- Chase Budinger (FR)
- Wesley Johnson (JR)
- Jimmy Butler (JR)
- Gordon Hayward (SO)
- Antawn Jamison (FR)
- Caron Butler (SO)

No big stars, but most of 'em are/were good players.

Considering in that last draft, the #3 was like a #8ish pick in a normal average draft, that not a bad hall.

[hands11]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Hold your shorts there. I gave Cody plenty of love after I learned he wouldn't be playing center and he could shoot from outside.

Thu May 30, 2013 8:03 pm

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1251880&start=1470

keynote wrote:

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5937816576

An impressive workout indeed. If Zeller is a true stretch 4/5 candidate, that might change my assessment of him.

Hands11

That was a key for him. Watch his draft stock rise.

I posted that updated DraftX video shooting he had good form. I'm was surprised his release was high but not surprised he can shoot.

In a weak draft, this could shoot him into top 3-4

...

He got picked 4th.. DraftX had him going 10th

----

nate33 wrote:
The more I think about it, the more I like Zeller. If he really can hit three's that changes everything. He would be a perfect fit on our roster as a PF who can defend well and hit from the perimeter, while also having good touch around the basket and a high bball IQ.

sfam
If Zeller is accurate out to the 3, I would put him over Porter.
Edit: I also doubt Zeller lasts long, so we should draft him at #3 if we want him.

--
And that just from the page of my post and a few pages after.

[hands11]

On any other team I would have taken Noel, but no way do I trust this FO when it comes to:

1. Developing raw talent
2. Rehabbing someone coming off a torn ACL

Porter was the best pick for US. Good chance Noel has the better career but I still think Porter will make a good 3rd Musketeer to Wall and Beal.

I had similar concerns.

Our track record with developing raw players is awful, especially bigs. Scared me with Bennett too, though I thought he at least had the offensive skills to command some minutes on the floor.

I thought our best chances at actually having the pick work was to pick someone with definite go to skills and a very mature personality--Zeller or Porter.

Yeah, Wall is developing terribly. Same with Beal. And they totally blow both of their injuries.

[Illuminaire]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

I wasn't terribly active in the draft thread, but I stated my support of Cody firmly and early. I think he will turn out to be a better third-banana than Porter.

(That said, I think Porter will be playing well for a long, long time)

[The Consiglieri]

I'll freely own that I loathed the idea of Zeller at #3. Hated it, didn't like it much at 8th either.

My board was if memory serves:

#1 Noel
#2 Oladipo
#3 Bennett

I had Porter flip flopping between 6th and 8th overall, nowhere near our slot, and Zeller generally slotted in around 11th for me before combine and workouts, than just inside the top 10 after. Not confident in his game at all, and only warmed to him after he killed it from 3 during work outs. That was intriguing, and suggested he could convert to a 4/stretch 4, and be reasonably effective at least on one end of the court, maybe moreso. Never loved or liked him that much though. I am warming more to him than to Porter over time, however, can say that, but I would have never picked either of them at #3 period.

[dangermouse]

I had Zeller above Bennett. Porter was always my #1. Dipo was up there too, but the fit wasnt right. Zeller was my #3 in the end. He could have fought for backup PF minutes with Booker. His height and athleticism, despite the t-rex arms, could have worked on a running team like ours. I think he could have developed into our stretch 4, too.

Im not about to write off Porter though. Ill wait till about Jan/Feb to make any sort of judgement.

[Zonkerbl]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Hey! I was there. Just not a volume poster. I said my piece, got mocked and trivialized, and I was done. Only so much IU hate I can stand.

[miller31time]

Didn't want anything to do with Zeller but definitely preferred Noel with the 3rd pick. Really liked (and like) Porter but I felt that we needed to take a chance with a potentially dominant defensive big-man.

[Dat2U]

Well, beyond Noel (still injured) and Porter the rest of my top five looked really good in the summer league. Oladipo, Zeller & Olynyk all stood out. Admittedly I wasn't in love with the idea of Zeller at 3 (would have been cool with a trade down scenario) but looking back he may prove to be a solid pick by Charlotte and likely a solid pick at 3 if we had made it. I'm hopeful Porter will return stronger & in shape and buoyed by his summer experiences come training camp. Porter was too good of a college prospect to turn out to be Jeff Green-lite.

[GhostsOfGil]

My list was:

1. Noel

2. Bennet
..
..
..
..
3. Trade or take Porter
4. Oladipo
5. Zeller

I am still furious we passed on Noel for Porter.

[Nivek]

My list was:

- Oladipo
- Zeller
- Noel
- McLemore, Porter, Adams Bennett
- Burke, Olynyk
- Carter-Williams, Dieng, Caldwell-Pope, Larkin

[Zonkerbl]

Where were all the Zeller supporters in the draft thread?

Felt like Ruzious and I were damn near the only ones who liked him. All year long it was basically nothing but "T Rex arms, future bust, overrated, big white stiff, etc." whenever we brought him up.

Zeller received 5 votes in the draft thread, I can assure you that I was one of those votes.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1252608

Oh I believe you. I just wish you and his other supporters had been there to back me up in the draft thread. Wasn't any fun to talk about Zeller up until the combine. Then after he killed the combine, being Pro-Zeller simply meant that you wouldn't be immediately flamed.

Oh, well, yeah, I didn't even get interested in the draft until after the combine. Frankly I know nothing about draft prospects, I just got interested in Zeller 'cause he's from IU. But the more I looked at him the less I understand why people were so down on him. It wasn't fact based.

[pancakes3]

I can only remember Jroseth as a big Zeller supporter, Dipo also. In retrospect, I can also see Closg00 and Zonk being staunch supporters. Ruz and McQueen had their hands in too many honeypots to make an impression on me.