RealGM Bucks board Draft project (Top Five picks)

[paulpressey25]

I do not have the time to do it this week, but I know a few of you guys can knock this off in a few hours, so let's do some participatory research.

Can you guys come up with two lists:

a) The player name and draft position for all guys drafted since 1991-2010 (20-years of draft history) who have made at least two all-star games in their career

b) The player name and draft position for all guys drafted from 1991-2010 (20-year of draft history) who have made an all NBA team (first, second or third) at least twice in their career

I'm picking those metrics so that we have players that have been in the league at least two seasons (i.e. why I'm cutting the draft off at 2010). Also I know all-star and all-nba are subjective, but by putting in the two time appearance guys, we cut off the anomaly guys like Redd and Mo.

Once we get both lists, part II will be then for your stats guys to do some basic percentage analysis of where most of these guys come from as far as draft position. Obviously logic and prior studies tell us that top five is where things are at. Just curious if using these metrics bear this out.

[emunney]

I'd like to see just a very simple one: all-star selections per draft selection at each slot. Maybe I'll put that together for this time period.

[jeremyd236]

Well, from the other thread and from the top of my head:

Kobe
Dirk
Paul Pierce
Tony Parker
Manu Ginobli
Steve Nash
Tracy McGrady
Marion
Ray Allen

For guys that were not top 5 picks and fit both of the criteria. I think most of the others are likely top 5 picks.

I can't think using just one of the criteria, but it'd definitely open the door for guys like Joe Johnson, Arenas, etc.

[paulpressey25]

I'd like to see just a very simple one: all-star selections per draft selection at each slot. Maybe I'll put that together for this time period.

Appreciate any serious go at this someone wants to do today versus names off the top of the head.

That said, I really like the 2x qualification since I'd like to then have us use this research with the local media and Bucks. If we only go 1x then the Bucks will trot out there usual stuff about the draft being a crap shoot and how we got Michael Redd in the second round and now Hammond has SIX second rounders to use, etc, etc.

Also would like us to use player names. The universe isn't going to be that great if you go with 2x qualification. Then we can write off Kobe as a high school era exception versus having "pick #13" as the data point to focus on.

[emunney]

Well, you know I don't believe in that high school era exception argument. There have always been exploitable frontiers and there will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Before the HS guys it was the small school guys. After HS it was int'ls who hadn't played in a top league yet. There's still a lot of boom/bust going on in Africa. The next great Chinese player will probably be undervalued. The first great Indian player may be a decade away, but he's coming and people will be skeptical.

Anyway, I like the ASGs/draft slot idea. Think it'll make a clean graph.

[paulpressey25]

Well, you know I don't believe in that high school era exception argument. There have always been exploitable frontiers and there will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Fair point. Agreed on the Africa thing. That may be the next frontier. We can debate all the different outliers once the full chart is in place.

[engelmartin]

Well, you know I don't believe in that high school era exception argument. There have always been exploitable frontiers and there will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Fair point. Agreed on the Africa thing. That may be the next frontier. We can debate all the different outliers once the full chart is in place.

Hey, I'm working on putting together a list of all the All-stars and where they are drafted. So, if anyone else is working on this and further along than me let me know.

[raferfenix]

Would be great to see these data points!

I presume that the point will still be firmly made even with high schoolers, international players, etc.

And if we include those outliers, then it preemptively takes away the main rebuttal the cronies and MJS would make in terms of questioning our methodology.

[emunney]

[emunney]

Here's a fun fact:

The #1 overall pick has accounted for as many all-star selections over this time period as 12-60 combined.

[Ron Swanson]

Interesting statistics. Pretty much reinforces the notion that a top 10 pick is, by far, the easiest way to acquire "franchise" talent.

The NBA has always been a top heavy league with little parity, so even if you have good scouts and talent evaluators, it all doesn't amount to whole lot if you don't have either A) A high lotto pick, or B) enough assets to trade for a high lotto pick or established superstar (rare).

[TwentyOne920]

Here's a fun fact:

The #1 overall pick has accounted for as many all-star selections over this time period as 12-60 combined.

I think Shaq/LeBron/Timmy account for at least 60% of those selections, but the point still stands.

[coolhandluke121]

LMAO at #6, 7, and 8. Yi, Bucket of A$$, Respert, Ford, Day... the Bucks are almost single-handedly responsible for that abyss. I guess the Clippers have something to do with it too, but still...

[TwentyOne920]

The spike at #9 coincides with Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion.

The little bump near the end of the graph is Manu Ginobili.

[jeremyd236]

I don't know if it's the 6-8 range being so bad or the 9-11 range being randomly pretty strong.

Amare, Dirk, and T-Mac were all drafted 9th overall.

Joe Johnson and Pierce were 10th overall.

[emunney]

Here's a fun fact:

The #1 overall pick has accounted for as many all-star selections over this time period as 12-60 combined.

I think Shaq/LeBron/Timmy account for at least 60% of those selections, but the point still stands.

Shaq, LeBron and Duncan account for less than half (37/82). LeBron isn't in the top 3 for the #1 overall pick yet. Iverson made it 11 times.

9 and 10 have combined for 7 multiple all-stars, but the last one was drafted in 2002. Paul George is likely to break that drought in the near future.

[Ron Swanson]

I'm also always surprised to see how many #2 overall selections have busted in the last decade. Okafor, Beasley, Turner, Thabeet, Marvin Williams, Derrick Williams, Darko (just off the top of my head). The 2nd pick just seems to be an unlucky draft position as of late.

[KidA24]

Well, you know I don't believe in that high school era exception argument. There have always been exploitable frontiers and there will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

Fair point. Agreed on the Africa thing. That may be the next frontier. We can debate all the different outliers once the full chart is in place.

Hey, I'm working on putting together a list of all the All-stars and where they are drafted. So, if anyone else is working on this and further along than me let me know.

I'll head into doing ALL-NBA team stuff.

[TwentyOne920]

I'm also always surprised to see how many #2 overall selections have busted in the last decade. Okafor, Beasley, Turner, Thabeet, Marvin Williams, Derrick Williams, Darko (just off the top of my head). The 2nd pick just seems to be an unlucky draft position as of late.

That's because in most cases the clear cut top player is off the board and the second-tier prospects are up. They tend to go for potential or need despite the red flags.

[engelmartin]

Fair point. Agreed on the Africa thing. That may be the next frontier. We can debate all the different outliers once the full chart is in place.

Hey, I'm working on putting together a list of all the All-stars and where they are drafted. So, if anyone else is working on this and further along than me let me know.

I'll head into doing ALL-NBA team stuff.

Sounds good, I should have it done by 2ish.