Interesting BSOTS Article: Rebuilding, or something bigger?

[Durins Baynes]

Not to mention all the players who RE-signed here, or came here for rehabilitation purposes and went on to play like stars again, like Grant Hill.

Run along, guy.

Grant Hill was an old man when he came here, who nobody wanted, and he did not "play like a star", or anything remotely close to his prime. Look, I don't think Phoenix is a bad destination per se, it's just not a top shelf one... and even top shelf ones find it tough to rebuild via free agency (just ask the Knicks, or the Lakers post 2014). I can't see how you would possibly rebuild the team that way.

[Revived]

Phoenix has a pretty strong history, but it can't stand up to the big markets or the shine of places like Boston. The only big name FA I can remember you guys getting under the post 99-CBA was Nash- and that was because his team (foolishly as it turns out) massively underbid (maybe a few in the early days who were mostly injured and overpaid). The time where the Suns could hope to use free agency to rebuild the team are gone. Under the current CBA it is hard for teams to lose stars, and on the rare occasions they do it is to a big and successful team/market, or it is completely random (and rare) because teams don't recognise the value of the player on the market (i.e. Harden/Nash). You can't plan that way.

Hmm..funny cause LAL is a big market and yet they have only signed one star free agent in the past 25 years and that's Shaq.

And LA is a much bigger market than Boston too.

So I guess if the Suns have signed as many star FAs as the Lakers have, then we're not in that bad of a shape now are we?

[BurningHeart]

ok

[Durins Baynes]

It's hard to reload via free agency even if you're a good market. That's the point. The fact you guys are a middle of the road market makes it even less likely, especially under the modern CBA's.

[Revived]

It's hard to reload via free agency even if you're a good market. That's the point. The fact you guys are a middle of the road market makes it even less likely, especially under the modern CBA's.

If the Suns can get their own superstar, like a Harden or a Pierce or a Wade, the Suns WILL be able to attract other free agents as long as we have the cap space for it.

But first the Suns need to get their own superstar, hopefully something that we will be able to achieve through the draft next summer or through Bledsoe (if he gets there).

Players care more about teaming up and playing with other star player(s) while getting paid more than they do about what kind of market the team is in.

If Charlotte had James Harden, guess what? Dwight and future free agents would be lining up to sign there if they have the cap space to sign those guys.

Once the Suns get their superstar, we'll be set. Players will wanna come play for us even if they think Arizona is hotter than hell.

[Durins Baynes]

You just compared Bledsoe to Paul Pierce. I don't think I should need to reply after that.

[Revived]

I used him as an example. Bledsoe, according to some so called experts and Caron Butler, has superstar potential and will be one once he gets more minutes.

Obviously Bledsoe likely won't be a HOFer like Pierce but my point of if the Suns can get at least one star then other stars will want to come play for us if we have cap space stays true.

Are you a Celtics fan?

[Durins Baynes]

No, I am not a Celtics fan. But to compare Bledsoe to Pierce, as you did, was just insane. There is nothing remotely comparable about them, even on the most generous trajectory for Bledsoe as a player.

[Frank Lee]

Bledsoe is more of a non-asshole-rondo

[Durins Baynes]

Even that seems way too generous. Rondo is an all-NBA teamer. Who is seriously projecting Bledsoe to be that? He more realistically projects as "good starter", which is why you were able to get him for so little on the trade market, despite him having been shopped for months.

[Frank Lee]

Perhaps.... but at least their games have more similarity.

We'll see the true Rondo when he runs a season w/o the old studs he has been pampered with. No doubts Paul Pierce would make any PG better.... oh... and that KG cat too.


PS.... Bledsoe shopped for months ? Seemed like mostly rumors till post season ended. Couldn't see theClips moving him till then. You ?

[Durins Baynes]

I think if he resembled an all-nba team player then the Clippers would have been given a heck of a lot more value for him.

[DRK]

I think if he resembled an all-nba team player then the Clippers would have been given a heck of a lot more value for him.

It's all about relative value.

Clippers already had argueably a Top 5 PG of all time, and are contending for a championship. They gave up Bledsoe, but got exactly what they needed to push their team towards a championship in the short term

[rsavaj]

Is the NBA Draft Pick becoming overvalued now that so many teams are embracing the "Presti Plan"?

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/8/5/45 ... mark-cuban

[jcsunsfan]

Harden had no choice in where he went. Given the Thunder were shopping him to teams like the Bobcats and Wizards, I daresay he'd have jumped at the Suns. But guys like Harden aren't something you can plan on. He's virtually unique. Since 1999 (and the new CBA's) there has never been a player like Harden, who is a surefire, legit max player (aged 23) on a restricted contract, whose team is being forced to trade him because ownership can't afford to pay the new luxury tax. If a team relies on a one off like that happening, they'll be very disappointed. You also need the assets to get a player like that in the first place. Assets which involved picks and such. Indeed, it's amazing how many teams turned the Thunder down- the Bobcats were offered him for the #2 pick and said no, the Wizards for the #3 pick (and they said no), the Warriors said no, etc, etc. Tough to imagine that combination of circumstances coming up twice, and you being the one team who cashes in on it.

I think it will begin to happen more often with the new cba. Golden State might be next.

[Durins Baynes]

Next years draft looks to have 5-7 sure all-stars already (with more who could break out as the college season goes). No, draft picks have not become overvalued. Plenty of teams are trying to "win now", and that's fine, but teams need to understand who they are, and where they're going. If you're happy being a 45 win team for the immediate future while you try to gradually improve, knowing you'll almost certainly never contend, that's fine. It might suit your fanbase to do that, where you say "ok, it's been 10 years sucking, 1st round exits for a while will strengthen our brand and give us consumer credibility again". As I said, fine. But the problem is anti-tankers constantly often insist they can become contenders without tanking, with "clever trades that rip off everyone else" or "the free agency market". It doesn't work like that 99 times out of 100, especially since circumstances you can't control need to be with you.

Take Morey for instance. What a genius right? Except for the part how he isn't. If Morey had his way, the Rockets would have acquired Pau Gasol, which would have prevented them from acquiring Harden and Dwight (certainly they wouldn't have been able to get both). How smart does Morey look then? He doesn't. Morey was "waiting for a right move" in acquiring assets, except Morey had no way to know that:
- Harden, a (worthy) restricted max player aged 23, would be available on the trade market... since, you know, that has never happened in the history of the CBA's since 1999. And why was Harden available? Because of freak circumstances that will almost never arise- the owners wouldn't pay him, because the team had too much star talent, and could happily win 60+ games with Harden on the bench (or without Harden at all as it turned out). Harden wasn't even the right player to start for them.
- But it gets better. Morey only was able to get Harden because a large number of other GM's undervalued him. Morey actually had no ability to get Harden, unless other GM's said no to very reasonable deals. The Bobcats were offered Harden for the #2 pick, the Wizards for the #3 pick, the Warriors for a package based around Klay, etc, etc. Morey was the last girl at the party who lucked out. And to get Harden? He still needed what were effectively 2 lotto pick assets (one of which ended up being a little lower than hoped) and a good role player with an expiring.
- It was good Morey got Dwight, but again outside circumstances gifted him with Dwight, who actually wanted to go to Brooklyn, and out of a series of disasters Morey lucked into him. He should get credit for making the most of others misfortunes, but the idea Morey was able to make a long term plan to acquire a player like Dwight is fanciful. Certainly most teams can't, because there is only ever one Harden and one Dwight, and every other team who doesn't get them misses out.

I don't think the Warriors will start shedding costs btw. To the contrary, they've been massively adding costs (despite not needing to), and have a new super rich ownership group who is moving the team to a bigger part of the SF market, with what looks to be on of the best located arenas ever.