Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

[Trader_Joe]

You'll hear a lot of names pop up when it comes to top GMs but who has started with less than Morey was given when he took over and has had this level of success? Even Pat Riley would approve.

What did Morey start with in the way of assets/players when he first started?
It would be cool to do a side by side comparison of the roster and picks he had, and what he has now.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2007.html

This, more or less. Yao and T-Mac were making max money. His early moves included trading a 2nd rounder for Scola, drafting Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry, and trading a 1st for Artest. After 2009, Yao and T-Mac were essentially max contracts sitting on the injury reserve.

Did he start with any cap space, any extra picks from other teams or the rights to any foreign players?
Also, I can't tell from looking at then who he started with and who he signed.

[NZB2323]

Interesting that you have Houston below Indiana. I mean, I'm loving this Indiana team and we'll have to see how Dwight fares, but their lineup scares me.

Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. The Rockets were not a good defensive player last year and Dwight's defense was not impressive.

If these rankings are about the regular season, Indiana plays in the East.

If these rankings are about chances at winning a title, Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Will Houston even be average defensively?

[jazzfan1971]

These rankings are all about regular season wins and losses.

[Trader_Joe]

Interesting that you have Houston below Indiana. I mean, I'm loving this Indiana team and we'll have to see how Dwight fares, but their lineup scares me.

Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. The Rockets were not a good defensive player last year and Dwight's defense was not impressive.

If these rankings are about the regular season, Indiana plays in the East.

If these rankings are about chances at winning a title, Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Will Houston even be average defensively?

Orlando was one of the best defensive teams year after year with Dwight.
I wouldn't take much away from last season when Dwight was coming off injury, didn't want to be there and was having to cover for one of the worst defensive back courts in the game in Nash/Bryant.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Don't get me wrong, I love this Pacers team. We have a very good bench to go with one of the best starting units statistically over the last two years. Chandler Parsons and James Harden with Dwight could be tough to stop. Especially with Asik coming off the bench. They just built a pretty impressive roster.

[jazzfan1971]

Next up: The Clips.

[Trader_Joe]

Don't get me wrong, I love this Pacers team. We have a very good bench to go with one of the best starting units statistically over the last two years. Chandler Parsons and James Harden with Dwight could be tough to stop. Especially with Asik coming off the bench. They just built a pretty impressive roster.

The thing you have to remember about the Rox (until they get a better fit at PF and/or PG), they essentially upgraded their C position from Asik to Dwight (Asik and Dwight won't see much time together, and even when they do I question the pairing). The two biggest things Dwight brings to the table are defense and rebounding, which Asik is already elite at. I'm not sure that will trouble Indy much as they have arguably the best front line in the league to throw at them.

And don't get me wrong either, in that I like the Rox line-up a lot and they most certainly did improve plenty, but Indy was clearly the better team last year and while they didn't improve quite as much as the Rockets, they didn't have to, to stay better than them.

[NZB2323]

Interesting that you have Houston below Indiana. I mean, I'm loving this Indiana team and we'll have to see how Dwight fares, but their lineup scares me.

Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. The Rockets were not a good defensive player last year and Dwight's defense was not impressive.

If these rankings are about the regular season, Indiana plays in the East.

If these rankings are about chances at winning a title, Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Will Houston even be average defensively?

Orlando was one of the best defensive teams year after year with Dwight.
I wouldn't take much away from last season when Dwight was coming off injury, didn't want to be there and was having to cover for one of the worst defensive back courts in the game in Nash/Bryant.

Orlando's defense was decent without him, Dwight may never be as good as he was in 2009, and Hardrn/Lin was one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA last year. And I think that Dwight was happy to be in LA at first.

EDIT: also last year Asik was a much better defensive player than Dwight, and the Rockets defense was still bad.

[Trader_Joe]

Orlando's defense was decent without him, Dwight may never be as good as he was in 2009, and Hardrn/Lin was one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA last year. And I think that Dwight was happy to be in LA at first.

Maybe before training camp.
And no.. Orlando went from a top 5 defensive team year in and year out with Dwight to bottom 5 last season, their 1st season without him.

The Rox will be a top 10 defensive team this year.
The Lakers will be bottom 10.

[Nuntius]

Especially with Asik coming off the bench.

I don't see Asik coming off the bench. He definitely deserves to start, imo. Trading Asik for a good fit at PF seems like a move that the Rockets will do sooner or later.

[NZB2323]

Orlando's defense was decent without him, Dwight may never be as good as he was in 2009, and Hardrn/Lin was one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA last year. And I think that Dwight was happy to be in LA at first.

Maybe before training camp.
And no.. Orlando went from a top 5 defensive team year in and year out with Dwight to bottom 5 last season, their 1st season without him.

The Rox will be a top 10 defensive team this year.
The Lakers will be bottom 10.

The Magic were equally defensively to the Lakers last year, and the Rockets were worse than both of them while having Omer Asik as their starting center. The Rockets defense will struggle to be average. Omer was vastly superior to Dwight defensively last year.

[HartfordWhalers]

Orlando's defense was decent without him, Dwight may never be as good as he was in 2009, and Hardrn/Lin was one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA last year. And I think that Dwight was happy to be in LA at first.

Maybe before training camp.
And no.. Orlando went from a top 5 defensive team year in and year out with Dwight to bottom 5 last season, their 1st season without him.

The Rox will be a top 10 defensive team this year.
The Lakers will be bottom 10.

The Magic were equally defensively to the Lakers last year, and the Rockets were worse than both of them while having Omer Asik as their starting center. The Rockets defense will struggle to be average. Omer was vastly superior to Dwight defensively last year.

This felt untrue. Really untrue. So I bothered to check. 82games numbers first, bbref in parenthesis, as they calculate possessions slightly different.

Magic: 110 points per 100 possessions on defense (109.1)
Lakers: 107 points per 100 possessions on defense (106.6)
Houston with Asik: 105 points per 100 possessions on defense (103)

In short, no.

[vincecarter4pres]

It's all about correctly anticipating Duncan's decline. Manu absolutely showed signs of decline last season. Eventually Duncan will as well. When he does, the Spurs will move down. Is this the year? I certainly couldn't tell you, but it doesn't seem outlandish to think it could happen.

And I don't think jazzfan's opinions are colored by what team he roots for. He has a good fantasy basketball track record, and you need to be objective to do that (or at least, more objective than your opponents).

And here's the thing, Duncan had already declined, then last year bounced back like no one expected.

And those year's in the past few seasons when Duncan had slowed, the Spurs were a fringe contender, or at least a contender in the sense they had a great regular season, everyone in the West was mainly evenly matched, they had great to very good players, yet most felt and ultimately rightfully so, that everything needed to go perfect for them in order to even have a legit shot once the post season got in swing. And again, that is talking the 2 or 3 years prior to last season.

Duncan doesn't need to fall off a cliff for them not to contend, he simply needs to play very well for his age, but well below the incredible season he had last year while Manu continues to be up and down, with a lot more down and Kawhi can improve, but he'd have to become a real star, not just Iggy or Crash and right now.

I still have them higher then Jazzfan and as a fringe contender with the potential to be legit, but they aren't favorites in the traditional sense for a team coming off a season like they just did IMHO.

[Prospect Dong]

It's all about correctly anticipating Duncan's decline. Manu absolutely showed signs of decline last season. Eventually Duncan will as well. When he does, the Spurs will move down. Is this the year? I certainly couldn't tell you, but it doesn't seem outlandish to think it could happen.

And I don't think jazzfan's opinions are colored by what team he roots for. He has a good fantasy basketball track record, and you need to be objective to do that (or at least, more objective than your opponents).

And here's the thing, Duncan had already declined, then last year bounced back like no one expected.

And those year's in the past few seasons when Duncan had slowed, the Spurs were a fringe contender, or at least a contender in the sense they had a great regular season, everyone in the West was mainly evenly matched, they had great to very good players, yet most felt and ultimately rightfully so, that everything needed to go perfect for them in order to even have a legit shot once the post season got in swing. And again, that is talking the 2 or 3 years prior to last season.

Duncan doesn't need to fall off a cliff for them not to contend, he simply needs to play very well for his age, but well below the incredible season he had last year while Manu continues to be up and down, with a lot more down and Kawhi can improve, but he'd have to become a real star, not just Iggy or Crash and right now.

I still have them higher then Jazzfan and as a fringe contender with the potential to be legit, but they aren't favorites in the traditional sense for a team coming off a season like they just did IMHO.

The other point is that Parker is 31. He's not going to fall of a cliff either, but there's every chance that he loses half a step relative to his pretty incredible last season. I think the expected decline from their most important player eats up any expected improvement from their younger role players, even Leonard.

[jazzfan1971]

Clippers up.

[Prospect Dong]

I think you're way too high on the addition of Mullens. I really like that as a vet min 5th big type signing, but you seem to see him as somewhere between 2A and 2B with Jordan. Like you I think he's a great fit in that role, skills-wise, but I don't think he's anywhere close to talented enough to be playing 25+ mpg on a contender, or even on an NBA team for that matter. He should be a 5mpg change of pace type player, nothing more.

Everything else is on point, and if they can pick up a solid ring chasing big man later in the season, or if Mullens improves a lot in a more limited (though not all that much more limited in your view) role then all bets are off, but right now I see them as too thin up front to make it out of the second round, even with the better wing shooters and better coaching.

[jazzfan1971]

It's not so much that I'm high on Mullens, as it is there is nobody there to challenge him for minutes as the 3rd big. Hollins has always looked worthless to me when I've seen him play. So, I don't think he'll earn much run except when there is foul trouble or the occasional blowout. That leaves only 3 guys to split 96 minutes. And Neither Griffin or Jordan have been high minute guys. Last year Griffin played 32.5 minutes and Jordan played 24.5 minutes. That leaves 39 minutes left to be filled by someone. Even if you bump up Griffin and Jordan's minutes and give Hollins a little run, that still leaves a ton of time left for Mullens.

That's why I see him getting a good amount of run. Not so much that he's a stud as of necessity. But, I do think it's possible that he could challenge Jordan in Rivers eyes as his most trusted player to line up with Griffin. Unless they bring in another big Mullens almost looks guaranteed to get 25mpg.

[ItsDaBrush]

The Clippers have the rare combination of having poor post defenders and no defense on the wings, Memphis is about the only top 5 team that they could outscore because they're so poor offensively

[HartfordWhalers]

The Clippers have the rare combination of having poor post defenders and no defense on the wings, Memphis is about the only top 5 team that they could outscore because they're so poor offensively

Paul, Barnes and Dudley are not bad perimeter defenders

[ItsDaBrush]

The Clippers have the rare combination of having poor post defenders and no defense on the wings, Memphis is about the only top 5 team that they could outscore because they're so poor offensively

Paul, Barnes and Dudley are not bad perimeter defenders

Paul is the only good defender but wing defense for the 2/3 spot is terrible for their team. Barnes gets overrated on defense because he tries hard except he's average at best. Dudley would be good in a defensive system that can compensate for his lack of athleticism like Chicago, Indiana, Memphis but the Clippers will do no such thing. Watching the Clippers try to defend Durant, Thompson/Iggy/Barnes, Harden/Parsons, hell even Chandler/Fournier/Gallo when he returns on the wings will be laughable.