The vaunted 2014 free agent class is a myth. It doesn't exist. The highlight of the 2014 free agency class starts and ends with LeBron James, who can potentially terminate his contract with the Miami Heat and become an unrestricted free agent next July. At that point, he'll be able to sign with any team he wishes with the requisite cap room, which as of today, includes the Los Angeles Lakers.
Beyond James? There isn't much there. Let's break down the list as it stands today:
Unrestricted free agents: Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Danny Granger, Luol Deng and Andrew Bogut
Do any of those guys look like franchise saviors to you? Both Bryant and Dirk will be 35+, and neither is expected to leave his current team. Gasol is an attractive option even at 34 in a year's time, but if he was such a great option to build around, the Lakers would be proceeding with that now. Andrew Bogut could be a franchise changing player who will be only 29, but he does most of what Dwight Howard does, except missing more games due to injury and he, quite frankly, isn't as good as D12. Deng and Granger are really nice players, but both will be 30 next year and have had a very real recent history of injury problems. Even at their fully healthy peaks, there's some debate as to whether they're better building blocks than Howard. Personally, it's not even a debate.
Restricted free agents: Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Derrick Favors, Eric Bledsoe, Greg Monroe, DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George
Restricted free agency is: when a player can sign an offer sheet with another team (meaning a team can offer him years and money), but his former team has the ability to match any contract offer. The most recent example is Eric Gordon having his 4 year, $58 million dollar offer sheet from the Phoenix Suns matched by the New Orleans Hornets last off-season. Gordon was quoted as saying "his heart is with the Suns", but NOLA had no responsibility to bend to their shooting guard's whims.
Irving, Wall, Monroe and George? You want a premium free agent with youth on his side? You got it!
But not really. As explained above, these players will only be free agents insofar as they can get offers from other teams, but could have their contracts fully matched by their current teams. Cleveland, Washington, Detroit and Indiana are not letting their young stars go, even if another squad offers a maximum contract. None of those franchises have had the most solid leadership over the years, but it's almost a no-brainer to keep around these players who are entering their primes but won't have even hit their 26th birthdays next year. None of these players are coming to the Lakers barring a serious injury, in which case handing out a large contract would be a very controversial decision.
Bledsoe, Cousins and Favors are both questionable additions here, but whoever their teams are at the end of next year will almost assuredly match contract terms based on sheer potential. Even still, is the Lakers fan base salivating at the notion of starting anew with a 36 year-old Kobe, a 41 year-old Steve Nash and either Eric Bledsoe and Derrick Favors?
The bottom line? These players are free agents in name only. There is close to zero percent chance they will be wearing purple and gold in a year.
Early Termination Option: LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony
Early termination option is: when a player can end his contract prematurely and become an unrestricted free agent. This is much more common in baseball when a player in his prime opts out of his deal in order to sign for more years and more money. Of course, the player can forgo his ETO and continue on with the deal he originally signed.
First and foremost: Amar'e Stoudemire is not electing to punch his ETO. He's got $23 million coming to him, which is a bigger sum of money than he'll probably make the rest of his career. Besides, his best days are behind him; no one is looking to STAT as a building block.
Bosh and Wade are much better players than they may appear when playing next to James and subjugating their skills for the sake of winning, but more than likely won't be franchise cornerstones in a year's time. Wade has broken down the last 3 postseasons and will be 32 next summer. Bosh will be just 30, and even as a twenty-something in Toronto, didn't prove himself as being someone that could carry a team.
If any team is looking forward to next summer to find a franchise building block, the answer is singular: LeBron James. He is the only player potentially reaching unrestricted free agency that could be a complete game changer for any team looking to build from the ground up. Any organization clearing cap room, including the Lakers, has to have one name in mind. And that's it. Next summer we're not talking about multiple options if Dwight Howard leaves: there is only one option. If Howard walks and LeBron re-signs in Miami or returns to Cleveland, LA has no other fallback plans. 2014 is about getting a shot at LeBron James, period. Considering the reigning MVP's greatness, it's not a terrible plan, but is a gigantic gamble.
In 12 months, there is one target: LeBron James. That is it. This is not a situation where Dwight Howard leaves and the Lakers will be back on their feet in a year. The rebuilding will most likely be delayed another year, when the targets will be Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, Rajon Rondo and LaMarcus Aldridge could all become free agents.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have limited assets and don't control their 2015 first round draft pick. I'm not suggesting the Lakers cannot find a way to grab a franchise player within the next one, two or three years, but what I am saying is that the blithe dogma of July 2014 being a shoe-in for reloading is only true as long we're talking about LeBron James specifically. Even more to the point, maybe we should all revisit if we should be so eager to see Howard walk all the way to Texas.
Next summer's free agent class of saviors is a myth. More of a myth is that that the free agent class is still great even without Howard in purple and gold. Next summer, there is one free agent savior. And that is what we should all be talking about in the case that Dwight leaves LA.
http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2013/7/1/4481538/disassembling-the-myth-of-the-2014-nba-free-agent-class
This article is from a Lakers blog but I think it applies to the Suns too. I have heard about how we should wait til next summer so we can spent money on all these stars and everything. But truth is, other than LeBron and Melo, there are really no stars that we can/should sign which would make sense for a rebuilding team like us.
Wade, Gasol, Amare, Bosh, Deng, Granger, Nowitzki, Kobe, Bogut all don't make sense for a team like us. Those guys are at best complementary pieces for a title team, they would have no place on a rebuilding squad like the Suns imo.
Now it would be nice to get Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Derrick Favors, Greg Monroe, DeMarcus Cousins or Paul George but I think its fairly certain that their current teams will match the offer sheet that these guys will sign (aka NO with Eric Gordon). Maybe Monroe becomes available if the Suns are willing to overpay cause I don't know how comfortable the Pistons are with him, Josh Smith and Drummond all sharing a front court.
And as far as LeBron and Carmelo go...I think its pretty obvious that we won't get either. LeBron has won 2 back to back titles and isn't leaving all that even if Miami doesn't win again this year. Only team he may leave Miami for is Cleveland and that's cause its his hometown and he wants to fulfill on his promise of bringing them a ring. And Carmelo wanted to go to NY so damn bad, I can't see him leaving there now. He's from New York and now he gets to play for his home team in the biggest stage in Madison Square Garden...plus in a year, Amare's contract comes off the books opening up cap space for them to go after other stars to pair with Melo.
So as the article says, the real FA period that we should be looking forward to spending money should be in the 2015 summer when hopefully Bledsoe/Goodwin/Len/'14 draftees will have developed well and we could get Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Eric Gordon, Jeff Green, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert and/or LaMarcus Aldridge among others to pair with them.
In the mean time, if a deal comes up where we can get a potential star by taking on salaries, then you gotta do it. But I believe McDonough's already said as much.
