Revamping the lottery system
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Revamping the lottery system
- fatlever
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Revamping the lottery system
http://www.nba.com/2013/news/08/12/morn ... um=twitter
great article today by steve kerr.
what are your opinions on the subject? i honestly like a lot of his ideas. the current system is bad for the league, but GMs have no choice but to try to lose in order to get a superstar. its not healthy for the league and it sucks for the fans of teams trying to be bad on purpose.
great article today by steve kerr.
what are your opinions on the subject? i honestly like a lot of his ideas. the current system is bad for the league, but GMs have no choice but to try to lose in order to get a superstar. its not healthy for the league and it sucks for the fans of teams trying to be bad on purpose.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Eoghan
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
I don't think you can fix it to where it would be satisfactory to all teams involved. You have to enable the worst teams the best chances of drafting at the top or else there's no point in having the draft in the first place. We're a shining example that tanking doesn't ensure top draft picks so what can discourage teams from being the worst on purpose more than ending up like the Bobcats?
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- LamarMatic7
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
The ideas are good but don't you get a feeling that each one of them has some shortcomings that bother you? ****, it's starting to frustrate me. What timing for you to post this article as I just had a post about the tanking problem in one of the other threads

Re: Revamping the lottery system
- JDR720
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
i think the worst teams should have the best chance to win the lottery, if the lottery teams all had equal odds there would be a lot more terrible teams than there are now probably, because there chances of getting a good pick go down a lot
maybe the worst 3 teams all have equal odds, maybe 14%
the next 3 have equal odds, maybe 9%
next 3 have 5%
and then the 5 other lotto teams all have 3%
that adds up to 99% you can add some tiny %'s to get that up to 100% i think an extra .10% to each teams odds would work
still better odds than the current lottery system with the best lotto team having just a tiny .5% chance to win
maybe the worst 3 teams all have equal odds, maybe 14%
the next 3 have equal odds, maybe 9%
next 3 have 5%
and then the 5 other lotto teams all have 3%
that adds up to 99% you can add some tiny %'s to get that up to 100% i think an extra .10% to each teams odds would work
still better odds than the current lottery system with the best lotto team having just a tiny .5% chance to win
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- fatlever
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
i think its ridiculous to have 5+ teams openly trying to lose in order to land a top pick. i think its sad that half the fans on realgm are currently rooting for their teams to be bad in order to land a top pick. i think its embarrassing that some teams are made fun of for trying to win even though they know they arent good enough to win the finals.
at the very least i would like to see restrictions placed on a team winning the lottery more than once over a given period of time (5-10 years). thats just a start though. i definitely would like to see more incentive for teams to make the playoffs as a 7/8 seed.
at the very least i would like to see restrictions placed on a team winning the lottery more than once over a given period of time (5-10 years). thats just a start though. i definitely would like to see more incentive for teams to make the playoffs as a 7/8 seed.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Eoghan
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Yeah, I thought Kerr's #2 idea was interesting. It would be nice for the 7-8 teams to have something more to play for besides being instant 1st round exits but this isn't the lottery's fault, this is the fault of the previous CBA allowing stars like LeBron to form big 3s of Superfriends. Hopefully the new CBA will reduce the chances of 1st rd match ups being between superteams and small market treadmills.
I think we have to remember that the vast majority of fans rooting for their teams to tank on the internet are in the minority. Most fans just want something to do and the ability to see a big star against their team. I don't think tanking is hurting the NBA as much as people think, there is always going to be a handful of cellar dwellers that are just godawful thanks to injuries, poor coaching, bad management, luck, and crappy players, tank or no tank. Like Billy Bob Thornton said to Thurman Merman in Bad Santa, "They can't all be winners, can they?"
How many teams are clearly tanking this year? Philly, Phoenix, and maybe Orlando? Philly for example had a roster that was destined for mediocrity and I applaud their management for seeing the writing on the wall and hitting the reset button. The real problem with the lottery and NBA in general is that the time it takes to turnaround a franchise is too long. Cleveland has been talent collecting for the past 5 years and they're still pretty bad if Bynum et al don't work out. Compare that to soccer where your AS Monaco's and PSG's can spend like crazy and become relevant in no time. Obviously, the NBA doesn't have a giant talent pool of international leagues to fish out of, it's the draft and that's it.
Maybe what they should do is reintroduce a 3rd round and literally bar the top 8 teams (4 from the East and 4 from the West) from the previous season from having a pick in the 1st round. Most of the best teams don't need high-profile draft picks anyway really and if bad teams are picking up 1st round talent more often (or give those picks the elite are banned from to the lower seeds and 9th, 10th place teams) than maybe these teams can rebuild quicker.
I think we have to remember that the vast majority of fans rooting for their teams to tank on the internet are in the minority. Most fans just want something to do and the ability to see a big star against their team. I don't think tanking is hurting the NBA as much as people think, there is always going to be a handful of cellar dwellers that are just godawful thanks to injuries, poor coaching, bad management, luck, and crappy players, tank or no tank. Like Billy Bob Thornton said to Thurman Merman in Bad Santa, "They can't all be winners, can they?"
How many teams are clearly tanking this year? Philly, Phoenix, and maybe Orlando? Philly for example had a roster that was destined for mediocrity and I applaud their management for seeing the writing on the wall and hitting the reset button. The real problem with the lottery and NBA in general is that the time it takes to turnaround a franchise is too long. Cleveland has been talent collecting for the past 5 years and they're still pretty bad if Bynum et al don't work out. Compare that to soccer where your AS Monaco's and PSG's can spend like crazy and become relevant in no time. Obviously, the NBA doesn't have a giant talent pool of international leagues to fish out of, it's the draft and that's it.
Maybe what they should do is reintroduce a 3rd round and literally bar the top 8 teams (4 from the East and 4 from the West) from the previous season from having a pick in the 1st round. Most of the best teams don't need high-profile draft picks anyway really and if bad teams are picking up 1st round talent more often (or give those picks the elite are banned from to the lower seeds and 9th, 10th place teams) than maybe these teams can rebuild quicker.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
I like the idea of the top 14 draft slots being made by drawing the bottom 14 teams out of a hat each with an equal chance of getting any particular spot. Eliminates tanking since the marginal benefit of missing the playoffs is small. The benefit of making the playoffs will dissuade most teams from tanking near the end to get into the bottom 14.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- countryboi
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
the only one that i like and that really could work is taking the last three years combined records. i would do that and just give them the top picks based on record.....the biggest problem with tanking is the same teams tanking over and over because they miss out that lebron because of some ping pong balls
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
- fatlever
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
i do like the idea of some kind of tournament towards the end of the year, where the bad teams play for lottery position and the middle-pack teams play for the final playoff spots and the good teams get a week of rest.
no idea the most fair way to pull it off but it would be very entertaining.
no idea the most fair way to pull it off but it would be very entertaining.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- SpearNMgicHelmt
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
It's a very creative idea to have the bad teams playing to win the best picks. I like it! He's also on to something with rewarding the teams that make the playoffs as a low seed.
Stuff like that would make the games at the end of the season for bad teams have some meaning. And it would eliminate the conflicted way we watch those games, where we want the team to play well, but lose.
I remember being at the last game of the year, fan appreciation day in year two where our victory caused us to end up with the same record as New Orleans and ultimately meant we didn't get Chris Paul. It wasn't any fun watching the game. Seems like it was against Detroit, who was playing all bench guys, so a loss would have been extra humiliating. But it made my blood boil to think about the Hornets getting a higher pick than us. (I wanted Marvin Williams, so it's a good thing I wasn't in charge)
With all the tank-talk this year, I'm about to decide that fairness about giving the worst teams the highest picks isn't as important as eliminating the tanking.
The Bobcats are due this year to get lottery luck. For that to coincide with the name-change is just too perfect.
Stuff like that would make the games at the end of the season for bad teams have some meaning. And it would eliminate the conflicted way we watch those games, where we want the team to play well, but lose.
I remember being at the last game of the year, fan appreciation day in year two where our victory caused us to end up with the same record as New Orleans and ultimately meant we didn't get Chris Paul. It wasn't any fun watching the game. Seems like it was against Detroit, who was playing all bench guys, so a loss would have been extra humiliating. But it made my blood boil to think about the Hornets getting a higher pick than us. (I wanted Marvin Williams, so it's a good thing I wasn't in charge)
With all the tank-talk this year, I'm about to decide that fairness about giving the worst teams the highest picks isn't as important as eliminating the tanking.
The Bobcats are due this year to get lottery luck. For that to coincide with the name-change is just too perfect.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Eoghan
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Here's my problem with the "entertaining as hell" tourney. If a team is that committed to tanking, they can intentionally suck all year and get into the lottery tourney and then actually win, a team like Cleveland for example that already has enough talent to be a decent team and beat up on the crappy teams. It just changes tankers into being ringers.
I honestly think the best system for punishing tanking is the promotion/relegation system but it won't work in the NBA unless they scrap the D-league and make it a 2nd division, and then you'll have complications from when the unanimous no 1 pick decides to go back to school b/c he doesn't want to get drafted by the newly promoted Ft. Wayne Mad Ants.
I honestly think the best system for punishing tanking is the promotion/relegation system but it won't work in the NBA unless they scrap the D-league and make it a 2nd division, and then you'll have complications from when the unanimous no 1 pick decides to go back to school b/c he doesn't want to get drafted by the newly promoted Ft. Wayne Mad Ants.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Dr Positivity
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Here's my idea: The teams who get one of the 3 lottery spots, are ineligible to be top 3 the next draft - Or even better, they can't pick top 5 in the next draft
Ways this discourages tanking:
- As many as 3 lottery teams who've incentive to tank is lowered, once they're topping out at the 4th or 6th pick
- Discourages "multi-year" tanking. Meaning for teams like PHI, ORL, etc. that every 2nd year they can't pick top 3/5, makes it less encourages to just suck for years on end
- Tanking in years with a "bad draft" reputation, probably next to non-existent. For example going into the 12-13 season teams would know that if they got a top 3 pick, they wouldn't have a chance at one in the 2014 draft, a much more hyped high school class. So it'd be a costly decision if a team wanted to tank in the 2013 draft.
Overall it just makes lottery picks less valuable because they come at a cost, but the bad teams still get the highest picks
Ways this discourages tanking:
- As many as 3 lottery teams who've incentive to tank is lowered, once they're topping out at the 4th or 6th pick
- Discourages "multi-year" tanking. Meaning for teams like PHI, ORL, etc. that every 2nd year they can't pick top 3/5, makes it less encourages to just suck for years on end
- Tanking in years with a "bad draft" reputation, probably next to non-existent. For example going into the 12-13 season teams would know that if they got a top 3 pick, they wouldn't have a chance at one in the 2014 draft, a much more hyped high school class. So it'd be a costly decision if a team wanted to tank in the 2013 draft.
Overall it just makes lottery picks less valuable because they come at a cost, but the bad teams still get the highest picks
Liberate The Zoomers
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- HornetJail
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Nanogeek wrote:I like the idea of the top 14 draft slots being made by drawing the bottom 14 teams out of a hat each with an equal chance of getting any particular spot. Eliminates tanking since the marginal benefit of missing the playoffs is small. The benefit of making the playoffs will dissuade most teams from tanking near the end to get into the bottom 14.
So you'd like a 9th seeded Laker team next year to nab Wiggins?
Okay. Do you realize who terrible all the bubble playoff teams would be just for that 7% chance at Wiggins?
investigate Adam Silver
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- fatlever
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Dr Positivity wrote:Here's my idea: The teams who get one of the 3 lottery spots, are ineligible to be top 3 the next draft - Or even better, they can't pick top 5 in the next draft
Ways this discourages tanking:
- As many as 3 lottery teams who've incentive to tank is lowered, once they're topping out at the 4th or 6th pick
- Discourages "multi-year" tanking. Meaning for teams like PHI, ORL, etc. that every 2nd year they can't pick top 3/5, makes it less encourages to just suck for years on end
- Tanking in years with a "bad draft" reputation, probably next to non-existent. For example going into the 12-13 season teams would know that if they got a top 3 pick, they wouldn't have a chance at one in the 2014 draft, a much more hyped high school class. So it'd be a costly decision if a team wanted to tank in the 2013 draft.
Overall it just makes lottery picks less valuable because they come at a cost, but the bad teams still get the highest picks
i like this idea. this is something i have been thinking about for many years and i think we have discussed here before.
something like
1) if you land the #1 pick you are ineligible to receive the #1 pick again for 5 years and ineligible to pick in the top 3 for 3 years.
a) for the 1st 3 years after you land the #1 pick your team will have no balls in the lottery machine. you will pick according to record once the top 3 teams are decided.
b) in years 4 and 5 after you win the lottery if your lotto combination comes up you are automatically slotted in the the #2 spot.
c) if two or more teams that have won the lottery in the past 5 years are in this situation they 2nd spot goes to the team further removed from winning the lottery and so on.
2) # of lotto balls would be decided based on average record for 3 years. this is to discourage a former playoff team from tanking hard one year while a star player is injured (such as the spurs when david robinson was hurt) or a team that has been competitive for a long time from tanking, getting lucky and bouncing right back into the playoffs (the celtics this year)
3) teams that picked in the lottery the previous year would be ineligible to land in the top 3 the following year. they will pick based on record after the 3 lottery teams are decided.
based on this formula, for the 2014 lottery:
- the cavs would not be allowed to pick in the top 3 and they would have 0 balls in the lotto machine (if they miss the playoffs)
- the magic would not be allowed to pick in the top 3 and they would have 0 balls in the lotto machine (if they miss the playoffs)
- the wizards would not be allowed to pick in the top 3 and they would have 0 balls in the lotto machine (if they miss the playoffs)
- the hornets would not be allowed to pick in the top 3 and they would have 0 balls in the lotto machine (if they miss the playoffs)
- the clippers would not be allowed to land the #1 pick (if they miss the playoffs)
now obviously this specific formula greatly favors the 2014 bobcats, but thats not why i am in favor of it. it really would reduce some incentive to tank for multiple years. it reduces the incentive to strip a playoff team for the chance to win the lottery the following year. it reduces incentive for borderline playoffs teams to try and miss the playoffs for the chance at the lottery. it rewards teams that have been bad for several years but unlucky. it punishes teams that win the lottery and remain bad for years following.
i also like the idea of rewarded the playoff teams with 2nd round picks in reverse order of record. there should be some incentive to making the playoffs and high 2nd round picks are valuable.
31st and 32nd picks go to 8th seeds
33rd and 34th picks go to 7th seeds
etc...
the lottery teams pick in the 2nd round after the playoffs teams have picked.
OK everyone, pick holes in that plan and lets try to improve until we come up with the best possible plan and then we pitch it to silver and save the league and we are knighted as heros.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Biz Gilwalker wrote:Nanogeek wrote:I like the idea of the top 14 draft slots being made by drawing the bottom 14 teams out of a hat each with an equal chance of getting any particular spot. Eliminates tanking since the marginal benefit of missing the playoffs is small. The benefit of making the playoffs will dissuade most teams from tanking near the end to get into the bottom 14.
So you'd like a 9th seeded Laker team next year to nab Wiggins?
Okay. Do you realize who terrible all the bubble playoff teams would be just for that 7% chance at Wiggins?
If that is the way the ball bounces then so be it.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Eoghan
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
The problem with Dr. Positivity's idea is that it punishes teams that are honestly bad enough to be in the top 3-4 for consecutive years. Teams like Sacto would never climb out of the cellar and it would increase the margin of error for getting the pick right.
The other problem with a team getting the first pick and being ineligible for x amount of years is that some drafts really suck. Imagine if Toronto picked Bargnani #1 overall and couldn't draft in the top 5 for the next 5 years. They'd be better off contracting that franchise.
The other problem with a team getting the first pick and being ineligible for x amount of years is that some drafts really suck. Imagine if Toronto picked Bargnani #1 overall and couldn't draft in the top 5 for the next 5 years. They'd be better off contracting that franchise.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- countryboi
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
I think a team that gets the first pick should at least be ineligible for the first pick for at least the next 3 years
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Diop
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
BrotherDave wrote:The problem with Dr. Positivity's idea is that it punishes teams that are honestly bad enough to be in the top 3-4 for consecutive years. Teams like Sacto would never climb out of the cellar and it would increase the margin of error for getting the pick right.
This just made me think of the successful Sacramento team, did draft picks have much to do with their success?
They traded for all their main players didn't they?

Re: Revamping the lottery system
- Eoghan
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
Sachmo wrote:BrotherDave wrote:The problem with Dr. Positivity's idea is that it punishes teams that are honestly bad enough to be in the top 3-4 for consecutive years. Teams like Sacto would never climb out of the cellar and it would increase the margin of error for getting the pick right.
This just made me think of the successful Sacramento team, did draft picks have much to do with their success?
They traded for all their main players didn't they?
They drafted Jason Williams, Peja Stojakavich, and to a lesser extent Hedo Turkoglu (gave some good bench minutes) and Gerald Wallace (literally glued to the bench). But outside of Peja, they basically traded for their main guys. White Chocolate was traded for Mike Bibby, Divac was signed, and Mitch Richmond and Otis Thorpe were traded for Webber.
Jason Williams, crazy as he was, was a pretty good pick where they got him (controversial as hell at the time) and Peja was obviously a great pick.
Re: Revamping the lottery system
- fatlever
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Re: Revamping the lottery system
BrotherDave wrote:The problem with Dr. Positivity's idea is that it punishes teams that are honestly bad enough to be in the top 3-4 for consecutive years. Teams like Sacto would never climb out of the cellar and it would increase the margin of error for getting the pick right.
The other problem with a team getting the first pick and being ineligible for x amount of years is that some drafts really suck. Imagine if Toronto picked Bargnani #1 overall and couldn't draft in the top 5 for the next 5 years. They'd be better off contracting that franchise.
check out my revisions to his idea on page 1. thoughts?