Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#261 » by dice » Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:38 am

Trader_Joe wrote:
dice wrote:
Trader_Joe wrote:The question is does:

49 wins as a baseline
+Improved growth + confidence from the ECF
+Granger
+Scola
+Watson
+Copeland
+Non-horrible regular season from Hibbert
-DJ Augustin
-Gerald Green
-Tyler Hansbrough

still trump:

45 wins
+Rose
+MDJr
-Nate
-Marco
-Continued wear and tear of Deng, Boozer, Noah, Hinrich

for starters you're neglecting the emergence of jimmy butler, who did not start until the end of last year and himself alone might be a bigger factor than any of the pacer factors. secondly, you're better off using the 62 win bulls teams of the previous two years as a baseline for comparison

subtract brewer, korver, watson, asik
add butler, dunleavy, hinrich, nazr

basically that's a big upgrade at STARTING 2 guard and a big downgrade at BACKUP center

That was 3 seasons ago and a much different landscape in the East.
Last years team is much more comparable.

2 seasons ago. unquestionably much more comparable as derrick rose is a constant
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#262 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:40 am

Well, don't forget this is my rough draft. I may change some predictions after I do my first revision. I doubt if I'll be dropping Denver 14 games though.

Ouch!
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#263 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:47 am

jazzfan1971 wrote:Well, don't forget this is my rough draft. I may change some predictions after I do my first revision. I doubt if I'll be dropping Denver 14 games though.

Ouch!


Will be curious to see how many you ultimately do. 14 feels high to me, but dropping them even 10 doesn't.

Espn has Phx only 2 games off the Wiggins race, which feels closer then the margin you have, but the safety of a 12 win season looks pretty nice. :D
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#264 » by Trader_Joe » Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:50 am

dice wrote:
Trader_Joe wrote:
dice wrote:for starters you're neglecting the emergence of jimmy butler, who did not start until the end of last year and himself alone might be a bigger factor than any of the pacer factors. secondly, you're better off using the 62 win bulls teams of the previous two years as a baseline for comparison

subtract brewer, korver, watson, asik
add butler, dunleavy, hinrich, nazr

basically that's a big upgrade at STARTING 2 guard and a big downgrade at BACKUP center

That was 3 seasons ago and a much different landscape in the East.
Last years team is much more comparable.


2 seasons ago. unquestionably much more comparable as derrick rose is a constant

Last season Chicago won 45 games..2012-2013
Two seasons ago 50 in a lockout season..2011-2012
Three seasons ago 62..2010-2011

And no the roster is much more similar (and I mentioned the additions) and the East more comparable (though better)
How many games do you think the Bulls wins?
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#265 » by dice » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:10 am

Trader_Joe wrote:Last season Chicago won 45 games..2012-2013
Two seasons ago 50 in a lockout season..2011-2012
Three seasons ago 62..2010-2011

which projects to 62 in a full season. it was essentially the same roster with the same results as the previous year

And no the roster is much more similar

i don't know what that means. but the reality is that the roster of two years ago and the coming year's roster differ in only 2 significant respects: starting SG and backup C. and those changes more or less cancel each other out

How many games do you think the Bulls wins?

more than the pacers, around as many as the nets. upper 50s assuming rose is more or less back to normal. gun to my head i go 1 heat 2 bulls 3 nets 4 pacers
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#266 » by floppymoose » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:19 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:ESPN consensus predictions: Warriors 50 wins, Denver 43.

Of course, every ESPN analyst picked Denver over GSW in the playoffs last season, so what do they know.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#267 » by nakedput » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:25 am

floppymoose wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:ESPN consensus predictions: Warriors 50 wins, Denver 43.

Of course, every ESPN analyst picked Denver over GSW in the playoffs last season, so what do they know.

considering how well Denver played during the season + the at-home dominance, I really do not think picking Denver over GS was a terrible pick.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#268 » by floppymoose » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:27 am

It wasn't terrible. But it was wrong. And ALL of them got it wrong. And there were a LOT of them on their "expert picks" listing on their playoff pages. 18 to be exact. They went 0-18 on that matchup.

I'm not even sure if any of the experts got more than 6 of the 8 1st round series correct. I got all 8 correct two of the last three years... so I'm wondering how expert they really are, because I don't follow the nba for a living.

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2013/ma ... s-warriors
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#269 » by HartfordWhalers » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:32 am

floppymoose wrote:It wasn't terrible. But it was wrong. And ALL of them got it wrong. And there were a LOT of them on their "expert picks" listing on their playoff pages. 18 to be exact. They went 0-18 on that matchup.

I'm not even sure if any of the experts got more than 6 of the 8 1st round series correct. I got all 8 correct two of the last three years... so I'm wondering how exert they really are, because I don't follow the nba for a living.


Espn needs to give you a small stipend. :)

Here it is 215 experts, although a good portion of the experts look to be local bloggers. So, it can be more than 18 wrong when they blow something.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#270 » by floppymoose » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:39 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:Espn needs to give you a small stipend. :)

Unfortunately that would be a conflict of interest for me. :-P

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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#271 » by Trader_Joe » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:01 am

dice wrote:
Trader_Joe wrote:Last season Chicago won 45 games..2012-2013
Two seasons ago 50 in a lockout season..2011-2012
Three seasons ago 62..2010-2011

which projects to 62 in a full season. it was essentially the same roster with the same results as the previous year

And no the roster is much more similar

i don't know what that means. but the reality is that the roster of two years ago and the coming year's roster differ in only 2 significant respects: starting SG and backup C. and those changes more or less cancel each other out

How many games do you think the Bulls wins?

more than the pacers, around as many as the nets. upper 50s assuming rose is more or less back to normal. gun to my head i go 1 heat 2 bulls 3 nets 4 pacers

If you clarified that they won 50 games in the lockout season which was the equivalent of 62 games that would eased the confusion a while ago. Otherwise they did win 62 games 3 seasons ago and they technically did not win 62 games 2 seasons ago.
At minimum it seems you agree with me that the East is tougher though, as you have them winning less games.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#272 » by Guzman_9 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 7:41 am

If you really think the addition of Rose, Dunleavy and the "emergence" of Butler is more significant than the addition of Scola, Granger, Watson and Copeland then well you are in for a big surprise Bulls fans.

Dunleavy is not an upgrade over Bellineli. He was a better player in Indiana then he is now and he wasnt all that great here. His defense is horrendous, You dont even know What Rose you will get back yet and I love Rose.

Nate played out of his mind last year so dont ignore that. Marco also stepped up too. Without them two playing like they did, the Bulls would have probably only won 40 games.

Hibbert played bad on offense the first half of the season because he hurt his shooting wrist during the offseason training in MMA.

Our bench should be greatly better than this past season.

I personally would want Granger coming off the bench because Stephenson meshes well with the first unit.

Watson>Augustin
Scola>Hansbrough
Copeland>Green
+Solomon Hill
+More experienced Orlando Johnson

All coming off the bench.

The Bulls had a better overall team a couple seasons ago. More all around players and weapons. They replaced those players with one way players and in the process their starters have been plagued with injuries.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#273 » by NZB2323 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:29 am

Guzman_9 wrote:If you really think the addition of Rose, Dunleavy and the "emergence" of Butler is more significant than the addition of Scola, Granger, Watson and Copeland then well you are in for a big surprise Bulls fans.

Dunleavy is not an upgrade over Bellineli. He was a better player in Indiana then he is now and he wasnt all that great here. His defense is horrendous, You dont even know What Rose you will get back yet and I love Rose.

Nate played out of his mind last year so dont ignore that. Marco also stepped up too. Without them two playing like they did, the Bulls would have probably only won 40 games.

Hibbert played bad on offense the first half of the season because he hurt his shooting wrist during the offseason training in MMA.

Our bench should be greatly better than this past season.

I personally would want Granger coming off the bench because Stephenson meshes well with the first unit.

Watson>Augustin
Scola>Hansbrough
Copeland>Green
+Solomon Hill
+More experienced Orlando Johnson

All coming off the bench.

The Bulls had a better overall team a couple seasons ago. More all around players and weapons. They replaced those players with one way players and in the process their starters have been plagued with injuries.


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What former MVP did the Pacers add to their roster?

Last year, Nate Robinson averaged 13 points on 43% shooting and 40% from downtown and 4 assists per game while making 1.6 free throws per game. Marco Bellinelli averaged 10 points on 40% shooting and 36% from downtown. Without those two putting up these amazing numbers, the Bulls would've won more than 40 games because of our defense and rebounding. Last year the Bulls were 24th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions at 100.4. The previous year we were 5th at 104.5. What player are the Pacers adding to their roster that will make them jump 19 spots in offensive efficiency? The Bulls offense had zero spacing last year, and Derrick Rose solves that problem.

Mike Dunleavy averaged 11 points on 44% shooting and 43% from downtown. We added some rookies who are good at shooting threes and may work out. Our bench is improved by adding Kirk Hinrich to it.

It's funny how you say that the Pacers will be better because Hibbert was injured last year and then say the Bulls players will be plauged by injuries.

Also, don't sleep on Jimmy Butler. He's an elite defensive player who has a well rounded game and is improving. He's a much better, more complete player than Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, or a washed up Rip Hamilton.

I agree that the Pacers have improved and are an elite team, but acting like Watson and Scola will have a bigger impact on the season than Derrick Rose is ridiculous.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#274 » by Trader_Joe » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:48 pm

The one thing in have learned about the Bulls is that Thibs is their MVP. It's because of his defense and system that
A. They can win 45 games without Rose and win a round in the playoffs and play Miami well.
B. Thibs always says we have enough to win no matter who is playing
C. Rose can miss nearly half a season and they still win the equivalent of 62 games like they did the year before.

Indy won 4 more games last year and won the season series 3-1 (despite Chicago going 9-3 against the 3 other top teams in the East... Miami, new York and Brooklyn)

Indy has since added back Granger, Scola, Watson, Copeland and have sky high confidence and valuable experience from their ECF run.

Is adding Rose and MDJr enough to make up that difference?
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#275 » by jazzfan1971 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 7:16 pm

Bulls up.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#276 » by Nuntius » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:12 pm

SF_Warriors wrote:Any reports on Granger? He was one of my favorite players on that team. He does seem to miss significant time each season.


Prior to this season he only missed significant time in his 4th and 5th season.

Rookie season: 4 missed games
2nd season: 0 missed games
3rd season: 2 missed games
4th season: 15 missed games
5th season: 20 missed games
6th season: 3 missed games
7th season: 4 missed games

Granger had a relatively healthy career until this season. Of course, we cannot know how things will work after his return but up to that point he wasn't injury prone at all.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#277 » by Nuntius » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:14 pm

KissedByaRose1 wrote:People are forgetting that Roy Hibbert was below average offensively for the whole season and playing against the Heat who have no serviceable bigs made him look like Patrick Ewing for 7 games.


People also forget that Hibbert was only below average offensively prior to the ASG. He was playing with an injured wrist prior to the ASG as well. You are free to check his numbers post-ASG and throughout the 3 playoff series. That's when Hibbert was healthy. When he was healthy, he produced.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#278 » by Nuntius » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:18 pm

dice wrote:scola and watson frankly aren't big upgrades.


Frankly, that's only your opinion. Scola is a significant upgrade over Hansbrough and Watson is an upgrade over Augustin.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#279 » by Nuntius » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:21 pm

dice wrote:for starters you're neglecting the emergence of jimmy butler, who did not start until the end of last year and himself alone might be a bigger factor than any of the pacer factors.


Jimmy Butler is great but he isn't a bigger factor than Paul George.
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Re: Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary 

Post#280 » by Nuntius » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:33 pm

NZB2323 wrote:What player are the Pacers adding to their roster that will make them jump 19 spots in offensive efficiency?


Well, we were #10 in Offensive Efficiency in 11-12 and #20 in 12-13. So, losing Granger affected our offensive efficiency a lot.

Adding Granger and improving our bench will certainly improve our offense. I don't believe that we will jump 19 spots but we will improve.

NZB2323 wrote:Also, don't sleep on Jimmy Butler. He's an elite defensive player who has a well rounded game and is improving. He's a much better, more complete player than Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, or a washed up Rip Hamilton.


Oh, no one is sleeping on Jimmy Butler. But don't sleep on Paul George either :)

NZB2323 wrote:I agree that the Pacers have improved and are an elite team, but acting like Watson and Scola will have a bigger impact on the season than Derrick Rose is ridiculous.


No one is saying that Watson and Scola will have a bigger impact than Derrick Rose, my friend. Rose will have the biggest individual impact out of everyone in these two teams. But we're talking about overall impact here and the Pacers added more than the Bulls in this off-season. We will see how it works out.
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