nate33 wrote:popper wrote:Ugh - great analysis on this page. It really does not look very promising. The only possibility I see to really upgrade the team (and reverse the EG first round bust syndrome) is to renounce Singleton and Booker.....trade Oke and or Ariza for young talent and start another mini-rebuild. Or, renounce Singleton and Booker and go over the cap next year to acquire another key player or two. Last, the wildcard here is Porter. I hope I'm wrong but there's a distinct possibility that he will be no more valuable than a minimum-salary veteran SF. Depressing ........... please fire EG ASAP Ted.
I wouldn't say that. I think the future is pretty good. We lack an elite young big man so it's tough to see us as legit contenders, but I think the prospects are good for us to win 45-50 games a year for the next several years. Basically, our long term core is Wall, Beal, Webster, Porter, Nene and whatever we can buy on the free agency market for $15-20M. If what we get is a stud big man, we should be in pretty good shape. If we get a hodgepodge of overpriced role players, then we'll be stuck in 45-win purgatory for a while.
We have two windows of opportunity to really improve the team: Summer 2014 and Summer 2016. In 2014, Okariza comes off the books and we can take a shot at Cousins or Monroe. If that doesn't pan out, we resign Okafor (or maybe someone like Pau Gasol) to a 2-year deal and then we'll have max cap room again in 2016 when Nene also comes off the books. In 2016, Durant and Love will be unrestricted free agents and both guys might be looking to move after several years of frustration with their existing team.
How often do teams get top players via out right cap space FA vs sign and trades or trades. Seems like you get more deal like the Harden, PP, KG ones then you do Howard to Houston. And teams that successfully do something like the Howard deal are usually good for several years first before they can do that. Teams want to maximize their assets. Players like Monroe will get matched/resigned. If you want him, you probably have to trade for him. Same with Cousins, etc. So I doubt the Wizards just let player walk so they have max cap. More likely the sign the ones that will retain some production, upside or trade value.
So instead of clearly a lot of cap space, another approach is to load the team up so it's just under the lux cap. Key is to have a mix of bigger contracts like Nene, Trevor A, Okafor and some mid levels. Goal is to make sure you actually have movable talent signed. For example, a player like Okafor is going to remain a valuable asset for another 3-4 year at least. Either a good team needs help from the bench or a team like SAC will need a solid professional vet to help it grown up. Kind of like the Wizards needed him. So Okafor resigned for 2-3 years on a reasonable contract makes sense for the Wizards. At a min he is a solid bench player, solid locker room guy. He helped Wall. He is the leader of workouts on the team. So I wouldn't be so quick to move him. Him signed is worth more then his cap space.
In that model you resign you own to good contracts, use the MLE to add pieces, draft and draft and stash, and keep the team near max but have all the contracts shorter and line up to end in 2016 when KD comes free. You manage you balance of vets like Nene, Okafor, Trevor A, Al so that Wall and Beal and other young players have something solid so they can develop.
This is the approach I expect them to take. They will lean toward resigning the players that still have upside and renounced, cut, or trade those that don't.
Singleton is in the back of the pack in my view, he might get cut, sent to the DL, traded or renounced.
Kevin will get resigned. He still has upside and should develop into a solid back up PF. Tradable in a package.
Temple at 1M is a FA UTR type. If he continues to be liked by the Wall, Beal, Randy, etc, they will resign him.
Trevor A - we have to see how that develops this year and if he would even want to resign here.
The only real big question as I see it is Ves, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they ride it out. That's when the board goes on full melt down. Yeah, he is going to be way overpaid for what he produced so far but because of all the other moves I expect them to make, they are going to be over the cap anyway so all they will have it the MLE. So picking up his 4.4M option isn't really a big deal.
So a expect a full on board melt down before Oct 31 gets here.
There's an "incomplete roster charge" during the offseason if a team has fewer than 12 players under contract. When that happens, the team gets a cap hold in the amount of the rookie minimum for the number of players it would take to get them to 12.
