Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[hands11]

The average NBA team over the 2001-2011 seasons lost 86 man-games per season to injury (the Wizards, being the Wizards, lost an average of 125 games/season to injury, worst in the league, with the Clippers and the Warriors following at 117 -- the Spurs and Suns were league-best with 40 and 50 games respectively.)

How many games do we predict the Wizards will lose to injury next season? And based on that, how does it affect your opinion of their record?

I feel like the Wizards are permanently hexed, and will lose 120 games to injury. That suggests to me, say, 30 games for Nene, 10-15 for Wall, and 10-15 for Beal (among other flotsam and jetsam losses.) To me, at least, an "at full health" team for the Wizards is an unlikely thing, unfortunately.

Based on that, I'm going with a record of 41-41 and the 8th seed.

I posted this before but if you havnt seen it, brace yourself:



Our AVERAGE is higher than your prediction

You have an updated chart ? This one is missing the last two years. Not that they weren't years with injuries. Just curious to see the latest numbers.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

That chart shows a ton of missed games in 2009. That was also the year they blow up the team to cut salary and go full tank so injury didn't really matter. Losing was a good thing. It got them into range to luck into the #1 pick.

I hope that chart is smart enough to account for players leaving the team. CB only played 47 games for the Wizards that year and only missed 3 games. Gil missed 52 Miller 30. Foye 14 Nick 10

[dckingsfan]

I saw a 47 and 68 in there.

All signs point to a healthy season for them.

There is no Gil knee or D Song or DSleez back on this team.

The two biggest injury concerns are Nene and Booker and I think both will be fine this year. And Booker isn't critical anyway.

Hey, don't go putting me down for 86. I said < 86

So 85?

[closg00]

39-43 here.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1713 ... on/page/19

[hands11]

How do we know that chart is accurate ?

How is it calculated ? I question those numbers as accurate.

In 2010, it has 68 games lost.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

Young played 64 18 games
Blatche 64 18 games
Wall 69 13 games
McGee 79 3 games
Howard 18 64 games
Yi 63 19 game

So how is 68 the total when Howard missed 64 all by himself ?

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... cleid=2225

This page show the three years of 2010, 2011, 2012 at 561. That other chart when added up is only 487

And it doesn't account for playing injured. Example. Wall came back in January and played, but he was on a minutes limit for a while. Not sure how anyone could gather and tally that information. Players are often injured and playing but clearly they happens at different levels.

I mean Kobe plays with a dislocated finger or a torn ligament in his hand for a season and scores 30 pts while teams that are tanking would sit a player with that level of injury. So playoff team probably report less games lost to injury. Maybe they are playoff team in part due to health. But then again, playoff team players probably suck it up and play more injured. Both are probably true.

[The Fax]

Sign me up for 40-42.

We'll start off strong. Wall/Nene will impress a lot of folks early on and put the team on their backs. Nene will probably fade out but Wall will maintain his steady play (given that he's still 100% healthy) . Beal will start off slow due to his injury but he'll be back to the 20ppg scorer we know he's capable of being around the all star break. Porter is going to struggle and we're going to inevitably panic. He'll also look much better as the season goes on.

I'm expecting a 7th seed out of this team. I think we're going to be in for some promising flashes of what the future holds for this core of players. Maybe even take a 1st round series to 6 or 7 games. A Bulls-Wizards match-up would be pretty sweet, I really want a Wall-Rose rivalry to build up!

[dckingsfan]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11 (to be adjusted)
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, closg00
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, hands11
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Off Rating

TwentyOne920 has 106 (rounding)
DCKingsFan has 101

Defensive Rating

TwentyOne920 has 104
DCKingsFan has 102
hands11 has 86
Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Higga has Yes
DCKingsfan has NO

Porter wins ROY honors

DCKingsfan has NO

Games Lost due to injury - has been canceled due to a dispute

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kiss of death, probably means they'll win (just) 35 games but here goes ...

Put me down for 53 wins.

I think Nene's health is going to be good. I think Beal is going to be much-improved, and one of the best three point shooters in the league, as well as a good defender. Wall is going to have an MVP-worthy season. Everybody's poised to be better. Ariza and Okafor are in contract years. I think Vesely and Temple will improve. Seraphin will bounce back. Maynor will be very solid.

I think the Wizards will be a 4 or 5 seed, and they'll even win a round or two in the playoffs.

I swing big and miss big at times. This will be no exception if I miss. However, the Wizards played like a 50-win team before they tanked. Their continuity is better than most other teams. I believe they're much better than advertised. Nene's health and Wall's health being key. If either of them go down, then 35 will have been a much better prediction.

[dckingsfan]

Kiss of death, probably means they'll win (just) 35 games but here goes ...

Put me down for 53 wins.

I think Nene's health is going to be good. I think Beal is going to be much-improved, and one of the best three point shooters in the league, as well as a good defender. Wall is going to have an MVP-worthy season. Everybody's poised to be better. Ariza and Okafor are in contract years. I think Vesely and Temple will improve. Seraphin will bounce back. Maynor will be very solid.

I think the Wizards will be a 4 or 5 seed, and they'll even win a round or two in the playoffs.

I swing big and miss big at times. This will be no exception if I miss. However, the Wizards played like a 50-win team before they tanked. Their continuity is better than most other teams. I believe they're much better than advertised. Nene's health and Wall's health being key. If either of them go down, then 35 will have been a much better prediction.

Wow, that actually has me in a positive frame of mind about the Wizards. How many days until preseason?

[closg00]

CCJ, your 53 win projection is very generous considering our precarious front court depth. I think the battle for seeds 5-8 is going to be tough despite this season being considered a "tank year". One or two of the bottom-feeder teams is going to better than anticipated.

[Dat2U]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11 (to be adjusted)
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, closg00
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, hands11
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

The Board has historically forecasted too high a win total. I think it's no different here. Looking at the East, the playoffs are a possibility but not a stone cold lock. My gut tells me were going to have some injury excuses and will likely fall short of .500 and just short of the playoffs. I'm seeing 9th or 10th seed and a very late lottery pick without any additional moves.

I think too much rides on Wall. Any time he's going to be out, you might as well put down a loss. My biggest fears: Maynor starting a decent chunk of games & Al Harrington playing significant minutes.

Wall missing 10 games may be the difference b/w playoffs and lottery.

I also have a hard time seeing Nene stay healthy. Rest is good, but his injury is chronic and he's not getting any younger. This is where Harrington playing huge minutes may really kill us.

I also wonder about Beal's reckless style causing him to miss more time and Webster's injury history.

At the moment, put me down for 38 wins and no playoffs. Worst of all words. No playoffs & no high lottery pick but enough progress that Ted gives Ernie & the gang another 2 year extension because were on the 'cusp of success'.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

closg, you're absolutely right that it's generous. That number just kept coming up and after a week of thinking about it, I decided to go with it right or wrong.

I think Detroit and Charlotte both will be a lot better. At the same time, I'm thinking teams expected to be much better won't be. Atlanta's going to be interesting. Millsap for Smith and Lou Williams should be healthy. Brooklyn added old guys to where they were already sort of strong. I think they'll be slow to defend kind of like the Lakers were last season. There also aren't enough basketballs.

The reason I decided to be optimistic is that last season the Wizards beat pretty much every team. They beat Miami, OKC, New York, Memphis, Chicago etc. Beal could be an all star as early as this season. I expect Wall will become an all star. The Wizards have a bunch of grinders and three point shooters, as well as a potential superstar at PG. They're going to be a little like the Detroit Pistons were 8-10 years ago.

But yeah, closg, I would think most would rate Miami, Indiana, Chicago, Brooklyn, and probably New York as better teams. Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, the Wizards, and maybe Cleveland would probably be ranked as the next tier of teams. Most would say 6th is as high as the Wizards can realistically hope to finish.

[dckingsfan]

Hmmm, I would take the halfway point between your post and CCJ's in a heartbeat... both are possible.

[dckingsfan]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
53 - Chocolate City Jordanaire
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11 (to be adjusted)
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, closg00
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, hands11, Dat2U
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Off Rating

TwentyOne920 has 106 (rounding)
DCKingsFan has 101

Defensive Rating

TwentyOne920 has 104
DCKingsFan has 102
hands11 has 86
Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Higga has Yes
DCKingsfan has NO

Porter wins ROY honors

DCKingsfan has NO

Games Lost due to injury - has been canceled due to a dispute

[dckingsfan]

At the moment, put me down for 38 wins and no playoffs.

I think you are one game low

[hands11]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
53 - Chocolate City Jordanaire
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11 (to be adjusted)
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, closg00
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, Dat2U
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Off Rating

TwentyOne920 has 106 (rounding)
DCKingsFan has 101

Defensive Rating

TwentyOne920 has 104
DCKingsFan has 102
hands11 has 86
Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Higga has Yes
DCKingsfan has NO

Porter wins ROY honors

DCKingsfan has NO

Games Lost due to injury - has been canceled due to a dispute

Fixed. I was in two places.

[payitforward]

Just looking at the shape of the list, you can see that like most such spreads this is a bell-shaped curve (the "bell" is sideways of course).

How does the fat part of the bell compare w/ last year's projections, hands? Do you have this info handy?

[hands11]

Just looking at the shape of the list, you can see that like most such spreads this is a bell-shaped curve (the "bell" is sideways of course).

How does the fat part of the bell compare w/ last year's projections, hands? Do you have this info handy?

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1206963&start=210

I thought I remembered seeing it not to long ago. It was a few pages back.

I think the lower part of the curve makes sense. 29 wins. With the Bell busting out at 32

Remember, most thought Wall would be back in Dec sometime. Really did know when Nene would return. And aside from them, Trevor A missed a lot, Beal went down lots more then expected. etc.

Would have been easy to see 3 more wins. Hell, healthier, could have easily had 10 more wins.

Wall out was bad. Beal out was actually worse. Way bigger drop off in wins last year when he was out. And

Beal missed 26 games.
Nene 21
Trevor A 26
Price 25
Wall 33

So yeah, 3 more wins could have projected to pretty easy if they got 6 more games healthy on average each from the group. Given they played at least .500 when healthy, if you cut those players down to say 5 missed games each, can see 8-10 more wins pretty easy. So they could have been right there fighting for the playoffs.

[dckingsfan]

Too funny - which one do you want?

[closg00]

Doc - You've got me down for 43 and 39 wins. I believe I should be down for 39. One thing people seem to be forgetting is that the Wizards had a league-worst road win total last year IIRC. We also have a brutal 20 back-to-back games

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If they only win 39 games, then the Wall contract was a HUGE mistake. There's no other way to look at it than that.