Official Trade Thread - Part XXIV

[nate33]

It would be madness to take Vesely's option if the premise is that we plan to resign Okafor so therefore we won't have cap room. If resigning Okafor is Plan A, then EG should be fired. Okafor is a respectable role player and I'm happy with how he has helped in the locker room and on the court, but the guy is barely an average starter and he'll start declining real soon. Resigning him should be Plan B or Plan C, after we've tried Plan A - which is to acquire a guy with talent, youth and the upside to be an above average starting big man.

[payitforward]

...92.7% of the time I agree with your analyses.

That's higher than my own rate of agreement w/ my analyses -- way to go!

As to "stats only" -- I've been an NBA fan for 40 years. I got interested in stats because a) other kinds of assessments didn't correlate w/ wins and losses, and b) I like all the math crapola -- better than wasting time at www.lumosity.com!!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not really buying any of the following guys as saviors. Can these guys add a few wins to the win total & raise the Wizards profile around the league? Eh, maybe, but will any of these guys make us legit contenders? I simply don't see it.

DeMarcus Cousins ... Expecting a perpetually unhappy, immature guy to help lead his team throughout the regular season and tough playoff wars seems unrealistic. I question his mental toughness. Even if he's on his best behavior, what happens when things get really heated in the playoffs?

And this goes without even mentioning the massive improvements he needs to make in his game to become a guy that can actually help a team win. What he's done so far doesn't equate to winning basketball. The shot selection and selfishness, the poor defensive rotations, the unwillingness to make the little plays that don't show up in the stat sheet. He is incredibly talented but he's got a long way to go before you can even mention him as a leading man or co-star on a playoff team.

Sounds very familiar. I couldn't stand Wall's game for going on three years. You loathe Cousins, Dat. Here's a link to a Dime article, Cousins' Top 10 plays:

http://dimemag.com/2013/08/happy-birthd ... ba-career/

I think Cousins has had worse teammates than Wall. His talented teammates have been very young. He just turned 23 three days ago. He's a very good player whose best games are ahead of him.

[payitforward]

It would be madness to take Vesely's option if the premise is that we plan to resign Okafor so therefore we won't have cap room. If resigning Okafor is Plan A, then EG should be fired. Okafor is a respectable role player and I'm happy with how he has helped in the locker room and on the court, but the guy is barely an average starter and he'll start declining real soon. Resigning him should be Plan B or Plan C, after we've tried Plan A - which is to acquire a guy with talent, youth and the upside to be an above average starting big man.

I'm sure we'll pick up Vesely's option -- you think Ernie is going to admit failure? No way. *Maybe* on Singleton, but even in that case I doubt it.

More importantly, I think you're wrong about Okafor. First off, I opposed trading for him and even if I'd seen how well he was going to play in a crystal ball I still would have thought it was a mistake. That said, if you look at Centers who played 25 minutes a game, Okafor was @ #10 among them in productivity. That's a lot better than "barely an average starter."

Of course, you are right that he may "start declining soon." So, to me, the question is how much we have to pay to re-sign him, not flat out whether we do or not. At $14m+, which is what we're paying him now, forget about it -- he's not helping to build a contending team in the future.

But at half that, I'd sign him in a minute -- whether or not we were to pursue Monroe or Cousins (he put up better numbers than either of them last year, btw).

[hands11]

It would be madness to take Vesely's option if the premise is that we plan to resign Okafor so therefore we won't have cap room. If resigning Okafor is Plan A, then EG should be fired. Okafor is a respectable role player and I'm happy with how he has helped in the locker room and on the court, but the guy is barely an average starter and he'll start declining real soon. Resigning him should be Plan B or Plan C, after we've tried Plan A - which is to acquire a guy with talent, youth and the upside to be an above average starting big man.

No, its is not madness. And no he shouldn't be fired if this is the plan. Because you know what? It won't be his plan. It will be Ted and his plan. Actually, probably more Ted then him. Whatever happens, at a min, Ted is signing off on it. But knowing Ted, Ted is leading the strategy. He always was.

They can do both.

Okafor would make an awesome back up center. Not many team have back up as good as Okafor would be. If they can get him on a 2 year deal, that would be a fine. Might take playing a little more each year for a two year but its worth it.

The acquiring is going to come in the form of a trade, not a UFA pick up.

Hey, just telling you what I think they are going to do and how it can make sense taking that approach.

The target for big splash in prime UFA is 2016. Along the way they will shoot for past prime big names like a Dirk. A player that could help them go all the way now. I don't see them going for a Cousins. Besides, he isn't going to opt out and leave all that money on the table. But they could trade for a Patrick Patterson if SAC is dump enough.

If they miss on them, the team will still continue to develop and raise asset values. Pick up MLE's. Draft and Draft and Stash. Tom is still developing over season on someone elses dime. He can become another trade asset.

Wall and Beal will continue to mature and be smack in their prime in 2016. Thats the target date as I see it. Those two in their prime and the Wizards on back to back playoffs will attack to big name FA's.

They are going to keep solid vets like Nene, Okafor and Webster around if they can. They will continue to pick up an AL type once a year. Hell, I think they resign Trevor A if they can.

Back to back playoffs with assets in hand to trade and cap space in 2016 I can see that plan working out. So I see them closer to Lux tax area then I do clearing the decks to a FA in 2014.

Actually, here is the bold prediction. They not only make the playoffs this year, but they make it to the second round. If not, at least to game 7

[payitforward]

...you know what? It won't be his (i.e. Ernie's) plan. ...knowing Ted, Ted is leading the strategy. He always was.

Yup, and there's the problem in a nutshell. We have an owner who thinks he knows what he's doing but doesn't, and we have a GM who's used to mediocrity, comfortable with it, and more than happy to take home his big paycheck feeling confident that he doesn't have to perform to any standard -- failures belong to the guy whose strategy it was.

We might find it hard to attract good GM candidates to replace Ernie. The best guys don't want to be yes men. And they are certain to know more than Ted about how to build a successful nba franchise.

[hands11]

It would be madness to take Vesely's option if the premise is that we plan to resign Okafor so therefore we won't have cap room. If resigning Okafor is Plan A, then EG should be fired. Okafor is a respectable role player and I'm happy with how he has helped in the locker room and on the court, but the guy is barely an average starter and he'll start declining real soon. Resigning him should be Plan B or Plan C, after we've tried Plan A - which is to acquire a guy with talent, youth and the upside to be an above average starting big man.

I'm sure we'll pick up Vesely's option -- you think Ernie is going to admit failure? No way. *Maybe* on Singleton, but even in that case I doubt it.

More importantly, I think you're wrong about Okafor. First off, I opposed trading for him and even if I'd seen how well he was going to play in a crystal ball I still would have thought it was a mistake. That said, if you look at Centers who played 25 minutes a game, Okafor was @ #10 among them in productivity. That's a lot better than "barely an average starter."

Of course, you are right that he may "start declining soon." So, to me, the question is how much we have to pay to re-sign him, not flat out whether we do or not. At $14m+, which is what we're paying him now, forget about it -- he's not helping to build a contending team in the future.

But at half that, I'd sign him in a minute -- whether or not we were to pursue Monroe or Cousins (he put up better numbers than either of them last year, btw).

What part is he right about ? That he "may" start to decline.

I see no reason to think Okafor will post numbers any less efficient then he did last year for the next 2 years. He takes great care of himself. It's not like he is some high flying dunker. And he turns 31 in Sept, not 41.

If anything, his efficiency was down last year on increased attempts. He hadn't taken 12 or more attempts per 36 since 2005.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... oem01.html

He shot more from outside last year.

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... on=2012-13

With Wall and Beal doing more of the scoring and them playing Nene or Okafor at center with a S4 separately more, I would expect Okafor to be more efficient. Plus, even when they play him with Nene, he now has had an entire summer to work on that top of the key shot.

[payitforward]

I'd love to have Omer Asik -- and I know we've discussed him in this thread. The Rockets have $66m guaranteed to only 4 players next year, if you can imagine that, and almost $15m is due Asik. Kinda high for a guy backing up Howard, no?

But this year he only makes $5.2m. Do we have to match anything beyond this year's salary to make a trade?

If not, then Seraphin, Vesely and Singleton would give him three guys he could simply ditch, and if we got back Asik, Greg Smith and Patrick Beverly that would be a steal. I'm dreaming, right? Ok then Asik and Smith for two of them. Still dreaming? Fine fine -- how about Asik for Vesely and Singleton?

Morey can get rid of those guys easily -- don't pick up their options -- and he's out from under $15m next year. We slip under the cap next year, if my mental addition is right (at least very likely), and we've got a much much better team all of a sudden. Don't extend Seraphin but do re-sign Okafor if at a reasonable price.

I must have something wrong here, but... what?

[hands11]

...you know what? It won't be his (i.e. Ernie's) plan. ...knowing Ted, Ted is leading the strategy. He always was.

Yup, and there's the problem in a nutshell. We have an owner who thinks he knows what he's doing but doesn't, and we have a GM who's used to mediocrity, comfortable with it, and more than happy to take home his big paycheck feeling confident that he doesn't have to perform to any standard -- failures belong to the guy whose strategy it was.

We might find it hard to attract good GM candidates to replace Ernie. The best guys don't want to be yes men. And they are certain to know more than Ted about how to build a successful nba franchise.

Maybe. Or maybe we have some fans that don't understand the time horizon they are working toward.

So what NBA teams are we talking about where the owner isn't involved.

Laker - Buss, GM Mitch -- yeah, I think the Buss's are involved.
Mav - Mark Cuban, Do they even have a GM ?
Bulls - Reinsdorf, GM John Paxson - Chicago owner totally known to get involved.
Miami - Micky Arison, GM Pat Riley. Hey, we are talking Pat here and they have Lebron, Wade and Bosh
Spurs - Peter Holt - GM, R. C. Buford
Pacers - Herb Simon and Bird

Owners are involved. Its their money. Their asset to appreciate. They decide who they want to give a max to. They decide if they are building longer term or trying to win now. They decide if they are willing to trade draft picks. They decide what control they want to give up and what they want to have a final decision in.

[payitforward]

What part is he right about ? That he "may" start to decline.

I see no reason to think Okafor will post numbers any less efficient then he did last year for the next 2 years.

You could be right, but Okafor had been declining (overall only slightly and pretty slowly) for the previous few years before last year, so he may regress to the mean.

Anyway I only said Nate was right that Okafor "may start declining soon." How could the statement be wrong? Anyone may....

[payitforward]

Hands -- of course all owners "are involved." Ted dictates team-building strategy. He's... more involved. Is that ok?

[hands11]

What part is he right about ? That he "may" start to decline.

I see no reason to think Okafor will post numbers any less efficient then he did last year for the next 2 years.

You could be right, but Okafor had been declining (overall only slightly and pretty slowly) for the previous few years before last year, so he may regress to the mean.

Anyway I only said Nate was right that Okafor "may start declining soon." How could the statement be wrong? Anyone may....

lol

Right. That may have been my point. I think. Yeah. That was my point. At least one of them.

But it did provide me an op to post some actual numbers to see if there was any "may" in that "may"

I think it is statistically unlikely. If I had to attempt a guess. I would say there is at least a 90% or better chance Okafor is as efficient as last year. I would actually expect him to be more efficient. Not decline.

I expect to see more Nene and Okafor playing center and a little less of them both out their together. That will allow Okafor to stay closer to the basket.

[dckingsfan]

What part is he right about ? That he "may" start to decline.

I see no reason to think Okafor will post numbers any less efficient then he did last year for the next 2 years.

You could be right, but Okafor had been declining (overall only slightly and pretty slowly) for the previous few years before last year, so he may regress to the mean.

Anyway I only said Nate was right that Okafor "may start declining soon." How could the statement be wrong? Anyone may....

I think we will either see a slight decline or his mpg will stay depressed... I think the same will happen with Nene.

If we can keep both of their minutes low - then their productivity should stay up - just an opinion but one will probably prove itself out.

[hands11]

Hands -- of course all owners "are involved." Ted dictates team-building strategy. He's... more involved. Is that ok?

In my opinion. Yes. It is ok.

If it was my team that I bought from 600M dollars or whatever they cost, I would be the one outlining what I could afford to do and over what time period. I would also decide what kind of players I wouldn't sign. You have to know people. Me personally. If I was the lakers. I wouldn't have messed with Howard. He was a proven flake. To get him on a 1 year deal and then pick a coach that wasn't his style and with Kobe still there.

That was kind of dump.

I would defer sometimes. I would want input. I would ask, what do you think. But on max contracts and stuff like that. I'm going with my evaluation of a players personality and if I trust them with the contract I am about to give them. If I bought a basketball team for that much, I damn sure did it in part because I watch a lot of basketball and know a think or two. Now if its just an investment and I know nothing, sure, get someone that can do it all. Get a Bill Parcels type.

For me, my gut... I would have never inked Gil to that contract. No way no how.

But we know Abe was involved in deciding that. Abe thought Gil was his own kid.

Owners get involved. That's why I keep hounding on how import it is who owns the team. Abe is why they sucked for 20 years. They had lots of GMs. Lots of coaches. The fish stinks from the head down brother. In his earlier years, Abe was better. He fired good GMs and they hired good coaches.

Now take someone like Jack Kent Cooke. He was an awesome owner. He was also involved. He used to negotiate contracts directly with several player. Some players had direct access to him. But now you are talking a football team with 80 people coming into camp and an offense, defense and special teams. In football, there is a lot more delegating going on. But Cooke was on the sidelines at practice. Cooke also selected the right people to give that control to. He hired Beathard and Bobby found Gibbs. And when they didn't see eye to eye, and it happened often, Cooke broke the tie. He was involved.

Well I expect Ernie sees what he sees and Randy tells him what he wants and what he sees. I expect it is more of a team approach then you realize. I expect the same in SA.

Some GMs are stronger. Some owners are stronger. Some coaches are stronger. I expect Phil Jackson probably bulled some weight. But there was also Buss.

[jivelikenice]

...you know what? It won't be his (i.e. Ernie's) plan. ...knowing Ted, Ted is leading the strategy. He always was.

Yup, and there's the problem in a nutshell. We have an owner who thinks he knows what he's doing but doesn't, and we have a GM who's used to mediocrity, comfortable with it, and more than happy to take home his big paycheck feeling confident that he doesn't have to perform to any standard -- failures belong to the guy whose strategy it was.

We might find it hard to attract good GM candidates to replace Ernie. The best guys don't want to be yes men. And they are certain to know more than Ted about how to build a successful nba franchise.

I don't think its fair to say that Ted doesn't know what he's doing. Ernie has a track record so its safe to say he's mediocre at best, but Ted took over this team when there was very lite little talent or financial flexibility. After three and a half year of ownership he has the team in position to compete for a playoff birth with three top three picks on the roster and financial flexibility next offseason. It could be a lot worse....jury's still out on Ted IMO.

As to your second point, you'll have no issue finding gms interested in this gig. I don't think Ted is making individual moves, but he wants to have GM who shares his philosophy which I imagine is common throughout the league.

In general I'm confused about all the whining in general. The only bad move this offseason was signing Maynor IMO. But the whining has included the following:
1. Otto. "I know I shouldn't judge based off two SL games but I am anyways...he sucks!!!"
2. Glen Rice- "how could we not use both 2nd round picks!!! I could have found the next ROY in the second round!! And instead we took the next Javaris Crittendon."
3. Signed Wall to a max. "He sucks minus for one month in his third year. We should sign steph Curry for what he got! I wish we had Kyrie....he can't play D or pass and hasn't won in this league but its fun watching him score!!
4. Signed Martell. "How coukd we give him the full MLE!!!"
5. Signed Al to the minimum. "They took away pt for Trevor Booker. How dare they?!"

I'm totally on board with criticizing the Maynor deal and think not getting Nate Robinson was a big mistake. But it's gotten to the point where every move is viewed with immediate skepticism and a "I could do better attitude". Sure skepticism is appropriate here, but I think it gets in the way of sound judgement. To get a fair perspective on the Wiz you have to go to national coverage and for the most part it's been positive with optimism about the future. We have three young building block, our picks moving forwards, and can easily create caproom next offseason if we want to trade for salary or if we can get a free agent to sign. It hasn't been determined if this team is destined for mediocrity or if they can become a contender. That will depend on how good Wall/Beal become and what caliber big they can acquire.

[payitforward]

I think we will either see a slight decline or (Okafor's) mpg will stay depressed... I think the same will happen with Nene.

If we can keep both of their minutes low - then their productivity should stay up - just an opinion but one will probably prove itself out.

I think this is quite a good point, actually. Emeka had a banner year last year -- his best numbers per 40 minutes played in the last 4 years and right up there with his best overall (but below his very best year -- '06-7). But he did this on 26 minutes a game. Back some years ago, he could log 33+ per game at a high level of productivity.

You can see a similar pattern in Nene's career and recent years.

[payitforward]

I don't think its fair to say that Ted doesn't know what he's doing. ...Ted took over this team when there was very lite little talent or financial flexibility. After three and a half year of ownership he has the team in position to compete for a playoff birth with three top three picks on the roster and financial flexibility next offseason. It could be a lot worse....jury's still out on Ted IMO.

Ted gets credit for the 3 top 3 picks being on the roster? We got lucky w/ the ping pong balls. And Ted decided to sacrifice financial flexibility not increase it. Moreover, no we don't have financial flexibility next off-season. Why do people keep saying that I wonder?

...no issue finding gms interested in this gig.

You're right about that -- I overstated the point a bit. Still, I like the owner to set the financial parameters and to have the GM make all decisions within those parameters. Otherwise, how do you know whether your guy is effective?

it's gotten to the point where every move is viewed with immediate skepticism ... it gets in the way of sound judgement. To get a fair perspective on the Wiz you have to go to national coverage....

Wow. Who got us to this point? The one where "every move is viewed with immediate skepticism"? What's our record in the Ernie Grunfield era? Note btw that skepticism is usually regarded as the foundation of sound judgement, not in its way.

And you want to judge our off-season based on national coverage? On the media? I really don't think so....

[hands11]

I think we will either see a slight decline or (Okafor's) mpg will stay depressed... I think the same will happen with Nene.

If we can keep both of their minutes low - then their productivity should stay up - just an opinion but one will probably prove itself out.

I think this is quite a good point, actually. Emeka had a banner year last year -- his best numbers per 40 minutes played in the last 4 years and right up there with his best overall (but below his very best year -- '06-7). But he did this on 26 minutes a game. Back some years ago, he could log 33+ per game at a high level of productivity.

You can see a similar pattern in Nene's career and recent years.

Nope

He didn't have a banner year. I posted this already. Here it is again.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... oem01.html

He actually had a sub par year. His TS% and eFG% were down on increased usage. His ORtg was down.
His FGA was up. His shooting from outside was up.

Nene and Okafor was effect for the team when paired with Wall, Beal and Webster, but it didn't make Okafor more productive. He was less productive.

If they can find other PF to pair with him ( Al, Kevin, Ves, Singleton, Trevor A, Webster ) then he can play in the post more and be more effective again. Also, he has had an entire summer to work on that top of the key shot. I expect him to improve there when he does takes it. Last year, he had nights he was hot from there, and night he was not. He needs to smooth that out.

And the team as a whole will be better with more Nene at center or Okafor at center. I think they will still play them together, but I think it will be less this year then last. As a result, Okafor should be more effective, not less. Maybe less minutes and less shots per minutes, but more efficient.

[hands11]

I don't think its fair to say that Ted doesn't know what he's doing. ...Ted took over this team when there was very lite little talent or financial flexibility. After three and a half year of ownership he has the team in position to compete for a playoff birth with three top three picks on the roster and financial flexibility next offseason. It could be a lot worse....jury's still out on Ted IMO.

Ted gets credit for the 3 top 3 picks being on the roster? We got lucky w/ the ping pong balls. And Ted decided to sacrifice financial flexibility not increase it. Moreover, no we don't have financial flexibility next off-season. Why do people keep saying that I wonder?

...no issue finding gms interested in this gig.

You're right about that -- I overstated the point a bit. Still, I like the owner to set the financial parameters and to have the GM make all decisions within those parameters. Otherwise, how do you know whether your guy is effective?

it's gotten to the point where every move is viewed with immediate skepticism ... it gets in the way of sound judgement. To get a fair perspective on the Wiz you have to go to national coverage....

Wow. Who got us to this point? The one where "every move is viewed with immediate skepticism"? What's our record in the Ernie Grunfield era? Note btw that skepticism is usually regarded as the foundation of sound judgement, not in its way.

And you want to judge our off-season based on national coverage? On the media? I really don't think so....

Ted knows. He knows what he was involved in and not. Thing isn't him knowing, its you knowing. In order for you to know, you have to actually listen to what he says he was involved in and remember what that was. Ted doesn't have that problem. He knows what meetings he was in. He knows if he broke a tie. He know what direction he set. He know how evolved his is or isn't.

As for you last point. I just wrote about this flawed evaluation method and logic in another post. Actually, I first started pointing this out years ago.

That's way over simplifying the situation and you know it. Ted is not responsible for 20 years of failed Wiz under Abe. He is responsible for rebuilding the team he bought to a winner. They have made lots of moves. Tanked for picks. Had some luck. You don't rebuild in a year and get instant results. What he acquired wasn't the Boston franchise that could trade a bunch of assets and get KG and Ray Allen to join PP such that the team was instantly good. It wasn't Miami with the cap space, reputation, etc to get LeBron and Bosh. They were the Wizards with a bad reputation and Gil's long boat anchor contract. It required a total reboot.

Chill. The better results are just ahead of them. As in.. THIS YEAR. It didn't take too long. Actually, you would have seen it last year if not for Walls and other injuries. That's not an excuse. Its a fact supported by evidence and sound logic.

This isn't the past so its not sound logic to continue to act like it is. Different owner. Different vision. Different time frame. Different players. Different plan.

You have your era's wrong and so your evaluation method is wrong. Its the Ted Era. Not the Ernie Era. Ernie is only a sub plot. Not the title of the movie. Well Randy is also a subplot.

When you finally except that fact, you will evaluate things more accurately because your method will be correct.

Wall is the star actor, not Gil. Beal is your CB level star. Nene vs AJ. Okafor vs Haywood.

Time to stop living in the past brother. You sound like an old man complaining about those damn kid pocking at their new phone and The Google.

Hey, just trying to help. Cuz all the complaining in the world isn't going to stop whats about to happen from happening. They are going to play well and make the playoffs. Might even get out of round one. So if you insist on not seeing what has actually happened, enjoy your remaining last months of it. Its Aug 17th. You should be able to get at least another 3-4 mouth of it in.

[payitforward]

Who's complaining? I'm telling you how I like to see an NBA franchise run -- owner sets financial parameters, GM does the rest. GM succeeds, he gets the credit; GM fails, he gets the boot. Tell me, please, who owned the Celtics when Red Auerbach made them a perpetual winner? You don't know, do you?

In fact, that's how anyone who's ever run a business knows is the best way. HIre great people and make them responsible.

As to Ted, I've been familiar with him, who he is, what he's done, his career in business, etc. since the early 1990s -- lots longer than you I'm going to guess. And I was delighted when he took over the Wizards. But, no, I don't think competing to make the playoffs in the 4th season after you start rebuilding is a good result. In fact, go compare our results to, for example, the turnaround of Seattle/OKC and the most recent Celtics turnaround, and the Clippers turnaround, and Houston, and... do I really need to add more to the list?

All that said, I think we should be a pretty good team this year. I haven't put in my prediction yet (still cogitating), but I think I'll probably come in more optimistic than you. Just as I did last year.

So... don't put me in a box I'm not in. Not down in the dumps here, just analytical.