Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[DCZards]

Not a chance. Austin Rivers is just a terrible basketball player. A conscience-less, unrestrained chucker.

Exactly what would the predicted total turnaround be based on? And what exactly is the prediction based on?

I sometimes wonder whether guys ever look back to see how often their crystal ball is cracked and cloudy.

Well, it's far too early to look back at that crystal ball as far as Rivers is concerned, pif. Yes, it could turn out that my crystal ball on Rivers is indeed cracked and cloudy...or it could turn out that your crystal ball is.

[DCZards]

Jordan vs Wittman
Haywood = Okafor
Jamison (healthy for 3000 minutes) > Nene (1600 minutes, mostly on one foot)
Butler > Webster
Stevenson < Beal
Arenas > Wall
Blatche, Songaila, Daniels = Ariza, Booker, Seraphin, Temple

I'd say the Jordan team had a much better advantage. But once Wittman got Wall healthy, they had comparable records.

A little quibble with you, nate. I think Okafor is a better player than Brendan, if only because he's tougher, smarter, more consistent -- and much more mature.

And you're right about Arenas being better than Wall (at least at this point), but JW is far better than Arenas at making the players around him better.

[Kanyewest]

I wonder how good Arenas would have been without EJ in his prime. Jordan did add offensive efficiency to pretty much everyone that he coached- no one seemed to do better before or after once they played for EJ. But yeah his defense was terrible. Still, I think the Wizards defensive woes stemmed a lot from Antawn Jamison.

[payitforward]

Not a chance. Austin Rivers is just a terrible basketball player. A conscience-less, unrestrained chucker.

Exactly what would the predicted total turnaround be based on? And what exactly is the prediction based on?

I sometimes wonder whether guys ever look back to see how often their crystal ball is cracked and cloudy.

Well, it's far too early to look back at that crystal ball as far as Rivers is concerned, pif. Yes, it could turn out that my crystal ball on Rivers is indeed cracked and cloudy...or it could turn out that your crystal ball is.

Sure it could. But don't count on it, because I don't use a crystal ball Zards. I use what the guy has actually done on a basketball court. Rivers has been awful, and he was a terrible college player too.

Could he turn out well? Of course! Anything can happen.

But almost always what does happen is a version of what's happened all along. And although there are false positives -- cases where a guy has e.g. been quite good in college but not good as a pro -- false negatives are very very rare -- cases where a guy has been bad in college, or at least meh, but then he's good in the pros.

[closg00]

Rivers is just a kid, I suspect he will eventually learn to play under control. I agree with Zard for a change

[montestewart]

Jordan vs Wittman
Haywood = Okafor
Jamison (healthy for 3000 minutes) > Nene (1600 minutes, mostly on one foot)
Butler > Webster
Stevenson < Beal
Arenas > Wall
Blatche, Songaila, Daniels = Ariza, Booker, Seraphin, Temple

I'd say the Jordan team had a much better advantage. But once Wittman got Wall healthy, they had comparable records.

A little quibble with you, nate. I think Okafor is a better player than Brendan, if only because he's tougher, smarter, more consistent -- and much more mature.

And you're right about Arenas being better than Wall (at least at this point), but JW is far better than Arenas at making the players around him better.

I think (or at least I hope) that Wall reaches the same heights Arenas reached, and I hope he stays there longer. Jamison, Butler, Hughes, DS had their best seasons playing next to Arenas. Arenas' ability to penetrate defenses and catch fire from deep helped soften the defense on his teammates, and his court vision allowed him to find them. On offense, I think Arenas made the players around him a lot better, but Wall's contribution on both ends maybe already gives him the edge there.

[Ruzious]

Comparing Randy Wittman & Eddie Jordan as coaches would make for a fair debate.

You'd be comparing two guys with very ugly winning percentages.

Eddie Jordan 257-343 .428 winning percentage
Randy Wittman 147-291 .336 winning percentage

I'd say it's a push, Wittman never had Gil in his prime. Witt has been better here than in Minnesota but hasn't exactly inspired greatness in DC.

You lost me at .428 vs .336 is a push.

Jordan had better talent than Wittman. My point is neither is good, just varying degrees of bad.

You really lost me when you said Eddie Jordan is a very good coach. Since when is .428 very good?

"Surround him with X's and O's guys and a supportive GM/AD, and he's a very good coach."

Grasshopper, Eddie Jordan got to the playoffs with a backcourt of Stephenson, Daniels, and Mason. I kinda doubt Wittman could have done that.

[DCZards]

Dub post

[DCZards]

Sure it could. But don't count on it, because I don't use a crystal ball Zards. I use what the guy has actually done on a basketball court. Rivers has been awful, and he was a terrible college player too.

Could he turn out well? Of course! Anything can happen.

But almost always what does happen is a version of what's happened all along. And although there are false positives -- cases where a guy has e.g. been quite good in college but not good as a pro -- false negatives are very very rare -- cases where a guy has been bad in college, or at least meh, but then he's good in the pros.

One year of college ball and a little more than a half season of pro ball is far to small of a sample to make a final call on a young guy's career, especially one who was arguably the best player in his h.s. class. It sometimes takes a while for a youngin' to adjust to not being "the man." I think that's what Rivers is going through.

Here's some of what was being said about Rivers after his stellar summer league play.

LAS VEGAS — Austin Rivers’ poor start to last season got a lot of attention — he was genuinely awful. Historically awful. For the season he ended with a PER of 5.9, the kind of number that normally would suggest his next paycheck will come from Europe. It’s the worst PER ever for a rookie who played more than 1,000 minutes.

What wasn’t noticed is that at the end of the season he played better — in his last 20 games he shot 50 percent overall, 40 percent from three. He wasn’t scoring a lot, but you could see improvement.

“Last year was up and down for me, I didn’t have a great year,” Rivers said Thursday after the Pelicans were eliminated from the Summer League tournament. “That was tough, it was the first time in my life where everything wasn’t roses and success. I had to look in the mirror and be like, ‘What am I going to do? Listen I have to play better I got to figure something out.’

“Then bam I figured it out and I’m playing really well, and then I break my hand. I was like, ‘golly, what is going on I finally start playing well and my hand breaks. Then I was like this is a test, I’m going to rehab the heck out of my hand and come back even better.”

He’s looked better in Las Vegas — he averaged 17.3 points a game in the Pelicans first three games to lead the team and shot 46.5 percent. He had 16 points on Thursday, but on 5-of-14 shooting.

His decision making with the ball is improved, and his defense is improved (but has a ways to go). Rivers has a ways to go, but he’s taking steps.

All of which is to say, if you’ve written Rivers off you did it too soon. He is looking more like a guy who can play in the league.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I'm not surprised that the stats show that Ves had a better rookie season than Rivers. I had HIGH hopes for Jan going into his second season...and Rivers struggled big time as a rookie. I'm one of those Zards fans who thought Ves could be an impact player for us, especially with his size, athleticism and Bball IQ. But he's let us down. I'd put money on Rivers having a better second season--and NBA future than Ves.

The biggest and most obvious difference between the two players is that Ves totally lacks self-confidence, while Rivers has a ton of confidence and swag--as well as a dad in his ear who will make sure he continues to mature and get better.

I like Seth Curry. I was surprised he didn't get drafted. He'll eventually land a spot on a NBA roster. He's too good of a shooter not to.

I am a dad of a 13-year old whose playing football, and also soccer. His 11-year old brother is on the same soccer team. Curry's dad is no doubt in his ear but one thing I've learned from my sons is they have their very own process. They assimilate their own way. You can give them what you think is great advice, but they might have other ideas. I respect that. Often, they arrive at the same thing you told them .... a long time ago. But not until it's their time. In fact, I find I'm sometimes better off not saying anything, and waiting for them to ask for advice. Austin's dad IMO might be helpful or he might be getting tuned out. Doc Rivers could overshadow his son or talk down to him, even though he loves him dearly and wants him to succeed.

I feel like Knute Rockne, Eddie Robinson, Paul "Bear" Bryant, John Wooden, and all the other coaches I know who seemed to motivate and achieve excellence over time with their players. Yet, my sons have my DNA and their mom's. Neither their mom or me was a great athlete who got paid to play sports. Austin Rivers, IIRC had an athletic mom and we know about his dad. DCZ, you're probably right. His dad will be in his ear. Eventually, he will maximize his athletic gifts with that wisdom to guide him. But I still don't think he was #10 good....

About swagger and Vesely: DCZ,Vesely kissed his GF on draft night. Dude has all kinds of swag IMO. Even in his latest workout vids where he's running on the beach, I noticed his GF (pardon the intentional pun) was shagging balls. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shagging_(baseball) She was rebounding basketballs for that three-point shot Vesely has been working on. Tall girl in the video I THINK was the same girl. I liked seeing that. When I was his age I had a GF who told he she had a crush on Michael Jordan, but if she kiddingly told me that if she dated him she'd give me the money he gave her. That girl meant that. I had some swagger back then, too ...

I digress...

I think Vesely just got buried by Okafor and Ariza. That trade for better players, veterans, guys to place around Wall; it buried Jan's confidence. That and Wall not being healthy changed the way Vesely had to play. On top of that, Wittman is not a fan of Jan IMHO. He basically called him scared and a guy who doesn't believe in himself. While that IS true, I think this coach doesn't necessarily have Vesely's best interest--and this coming from me, a guy who really likes Coach Randy Wittman.

DCZ, Vesely really hasn't disappointed me. I think he had a bit of a mental breakdown. Been there.

You mentioned dad for Rivers. Seems like Vesely at least has a mentor and shooting coach he trusts, and his GF in his corner. I don't think Jan ever has had a dude get in his face like Randy Wittman does. I see a lot of young kids who have soldiers for dads. Some dads literally are fighting in Afghanistan one year, but they return to be "dad" or "coach" to young boys who've been basically raised by mom. Some of them are probably scared of dad. I know I was definitely afraid of my day, who went to Vietnam a couple times. Loved him and respected him as a kid. Mostly, was scared. After my parents divorced, I had a bit of problems getting negativity from my HS football coach. Dude was terrifying to me.

I think I see why Vesely isn't so confident, but I could be wrong.

My thoughts are that Vesely is that player you and I both liked his rookie season, DCZ. I believe the guy is going to break out and get much respect. I like that he's behind veterans. I think Al Harrington will help Vesely. I think Wall already knows Jan's strengths.

The only thing is Randy has other players he can rely on. Vesely IMO is probably going to be better off on another team. Europe or NBA. I will be interested to see if the Wizards extend a qualifying offer to Jan Vesely.

Ernie and Flip drafted JV sixth overall. Their reputations are on the line. In typical Wizard fashion, just like with Blatche and just like with McGee, the young player has already been blamed and labeled a failure.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sure it could. But don't count on it, because I don't use a crystal ball Zards. I use what the guy has actually done on a basketball court. Rivers has been awful, and he was a terrible college player too.

Could he turn out well? Of course! Anything can happen.

But almost always what does happen is a version of what's happened all along. And although there are false positives -- cases where a guy has e.g. been quite good in college but not good as a pro -- false negatives are very very rare -- cases where a guy has been bad in college, or at least meh, but then he's good in the pros.

One year of college ball and a little more than a half season of pro ball is far to small of a sample to make a final call on a young guy's career, especially one who was arguably the best player in his h.s. class. It sometimes takes a while for a youngin' to adjust to not being "the man." I think that's what Rivers is going through.

Here's some of what was being said about Rivers after his stellar summer league play.

LAS VEGAS — Austin Rivers’ poor start to last season got a lot of attention — he was genuinely awful. Historically awful. For the season he ended with a PER of 5.9, the kind of number that normally would suggest his next paycheck will come from Europe. It’s the worst PER ever for a rookie who played more than 1,000 minutes.

What wasn’t noticed is that at the end of the season he played better — in his last 20 games he shot 50 percent overall, 40 percent from three. He wasn’t scoring a lot, but you could see improvement.

“Last year was up and down for me, I didn’t have a great year,” Rivers said Thursday after the Pelicans were eliminated from the Summer League tournament. “That was tough, it was the first time in my life where everything wasn’t roses and success. I had to look in the mirror and be like, ‘What am I going to do? Listen I have to play better I got to figure something out.’

“Then bam I figured it out and I’m playing really well, and then I break my hand. I was like, ‘golly, what is going on I finally start playing well and my hand breaks. Then I was like this is a test, I’m going to rehab the heck out of my hand and come back even better.”

He’s looked better in Las Vegas — he averaged 17.3 points a game in the Pelicans first three games to lead the team and shot 46.5 percent. He had 16 points on Thursday, but on 5-of-14 shooting.

His decision making with the ball is improved, and his defense is improved (but has a ways to go). Rivers has a ways to go, but he’s taking steps.

All of which is to say, if you’ve written Rivers off you did it too soon. He is looking more like a guy who can play in the league.

Great. Austin Rivers had an adjustment to make and an injury to overcome.

He sounds self aware and very much owns his success and failure. His responses of looking in the mirror and rehabbing to be better each give me a lot of faith that Austin Rivers will do just as he says he will do.

FWIW, Vesely had an injury, too. That and he was asked to change positions and bang, once the Wizards acquired both Webster and Ariza. Vesely also has a language barrier. All of that said, Jan's around the same age/mentality as young Austin Rivers. JV probably never had failed to impress before, either.

I will root for Rivers (if he's not jacking shots as Kevin Seraphin did last season), as well as I will root for Jan Vesely, who I like. He is a high-energy player who also has a high basketball IQ, at near 7 feet tall.

[Dat2U]

Sure it could. But don't count on it, because I don't use a crystal ball Zards. I use what the guy has actually done on a basketball court. Rivers has been awful, and he was a terrible college player too.

Could he turn out well? Of course! Anything can happen.

But almost always what does happen is a version of what's happened all along. And although there are false positives -- cases where a guy has e.g. been quite good in college but not good as a pro -- false negatives are very very rare -- cases where a guy has been bad in college, or at least meh, but then he's good in the pros.

One year of college ball and a little more than a half season of pro ball is far to small of a sample to make a final call on a young guy's career, especially one who was arguably the best player in his h.s. class. It sometimes takes a while for a youngin' to adjust to not being "the man." I think that's what Rivers is going through.

Here's some of what was being said about Rivers after his stellar summer league play.

LAS VEGAS — Austin Rivers’ poor start to last season got a lot of attention — he was genuinely awful. Historically awful. For the season he ended with a PER of 5.9, the kind of number that normally would suggest his next paycheck will come from Europe. It’s the worst PER ever for a rookie who played more than 1,000 minutes.

What wasn’t noticed is that at the end of the season he played better — in his last 20 games he shot 50 percent overall, 40 percent from three. He wasn’t scoring a lot, but you could see improvement.

“Last year was up and down for me, I didn’t have a great year,” Rivers said Thursday after the Pelicans were eliminated from the Summer League tournament. “That was tough, it was the first time in my life where everything wasn’t roses and success. I had to look in the mirror and be like, ‘What am I going to do? Listen I have to play better I got to figure something out.’

“Then bam I figured it out and I’m playing really well, and then I break my hand. I was like, ‘golly, what is going on I finally start playing well and my hand breaks. Then I was like this is a test, I’m going to rehab the heck out of my hand and come back even better.”

He’s looked better in Las Vegas — he averaged 17.3 points a game in the Pelicans first three games to lead the team and shot 46.5 percent. He had 16 points on Thursday, but on 5-of-14 shooting.

His decision making with the ball is improved, and his defense is improved (but has a ways to go). Rivers has a ways to go, but he’s taking steps.

All of which is to say, if you’ve written Rivers off you did it too soon. He is looking more like a guy who can play in the league.

I don't buy it. Rivers was horrible ALL YEAR LONG. He scored in double digits TWICE in 2013. Twice. There was no breakout, if he improved, it was to go from worst player of all time to simply terrible. Wow. Congrats on the improvement. It's not like he could get any worse unless he just started handing the ball to the opponent each time up the floor.

I thought Rivers was a terrible college player as well. He had one good game and lives off the rep of his daddy's name. You were one of the main culprits that talked me into thinking he'd be at least decent when I initially thought he'd be no good. I'm not buying it again. When I scouted him, he didn't look like an NBA player. When I watched him this past year, he didn't look like an NBA player. One summer league of so-so play isn't going to change my mind. He's got some physical issues that he may not be able to overcome (i.e. strength, size & so-so athleticism).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Great point, Dat. His dad was a physically-gifted, fast, strong, power dunker. However, Austin Rivers isn't blessed with the ability to finish well at the rim.

His FT shooting perplexes me, too.

Austin Rivers is sort of in the same position as Jeffrey Jordan and Marcus Jordan. Daddy's game just might be better ... Austin also had a lot of hype leading up to his college. I believe the Jordan sons probably would have gotten drafted, too, if they had been good enough to suit up for Coach K and get minutes at Duke like Austin did.

Earlier in this thread I mentioned I wasn't that impressed with Austin at Duke (unlike how I was impressed with Seth Curry this past season and even before, when Austin was a teammate).


I just got through telling DCZ I thought he'd improve as he said. Yep, I don't have a clue and I already feel like a hypocrite regarding Austin Rivers.

I can say I lean more to agree with Dat than DCZ. I'm not expecting greatness from Austin but he can be a decent role player.

[Nivek]

Even at the end of last season, Rivers was terrible. In February/March (last 16 games), he did shoot better (.506 from 2pt range and .429 from 3pt range), but on very low usage -- just 14 total 3pt attempts and 91 total FGA in that span. And he shot .545 from the 3pt line. And that was the STRENGTH of his game during that time -- in February/March (when Rivers said he "figured it out" and "playing really well") he was getting per 40 minutes: 2.7 rebounds (his 2nd worst month behind the 2.6 he got in January), 3.2 assists (worst month of his season), 0.3 steals (worst month of his season), 0.1 blocks (worst month of his season), and 4.0 fouls (2nd worst month of his season behind January). On the bright side, it was his lowest month for turnovers per 40 minutes; 2nd best (behind December) for turnover rate (turnovers per possession used).

Rivers rated below replacement level for every month he played last season. I wouldn't say it's impossible for him to become a decent NBA player, but the kid has a TON of work to do on his game and his body. If he does it, kudos to him for putting in the work. He has a very long way to go.

And, just to echo Dat's point -- in my pre-draft analysis, I had Rivers with a "don't draft" grade. Inefficient offense and no other production. Smart of him to come out when he did and get the money. Unless he improves a ton, he won't get another NBA contract.

[Kanyewest]

Comparing Randy Wittman & Eddie Jordan as coaches would make for a fair debate.

You'd be comparing two guys with very ugly winning percentages.

Eddie Jordan 257-343 .428 winning percentage
Randy Wittman 147-291 .336 winning percentage

I'd say it's a push, Wittman never had Gil in his prime. Witt has been better here than in Minnesota but hasn't exactly inspired greatness in DC.

You lost me at .428 vs .336 is a push.

Jordan had better talent than Wittman. My point is neither is good, just varying degrees of bad.

You really lost me when you said Eddie Jordan is a very good coach. Since when is .428 very good?

Phil Jackson also had better talent than Wittman. Therefore, Wittman=Phil Jackson

[closg00]

Any word on camp invites? I see that the Bulls are taking a look at Dexter Pittman and the Pistons have given Josh Harrelson a partially guaranteed contract. I suppose Ernie is happy with the prospect of Jan Vesely being part of our front court depth.

[nate33]

Any word on camp invites? I see that the Bulls are taking a look at Dexter Pittman and the Pistons have given Josh Harrelson a partially guaranteed contract. I suppose Ernie is happy with the prospect of Jan Vesely being part of our front court depth.

You never let up, do you closg00?

The Wizards already have 15 guys under contract. EG not looking at any big names isn't an indication of laziness or ineptitude. It's merely an acknowledgement that we won't be anyone else added to the 15-man roster. Also, any decent prospects will recognize this and look to join training camps of other teams where they actually have a shot of making the team.

I'm all for bashing EG when warranted, but your reflexive bashing of him on every conceivable decision or non-decision gets tiresome.

[closg00]

Any word on camp invites? I see that the Bulls are taking a look at Dexter Pittman and the Pistons have given Josh Harrelson a partially guaranteed contract.

You never let up, do you closg00?

The Wizards already have 15 guys under contract. EG not looking at any big names isn't an indication of laziness or ineptitude. It's merely an acknowledgement that we won't be anyone else added to the 15-man roster. Also, any decent prospects will recognize this and look to join training camps of other teams where they actually have a shot of making the team.

I'm all for bashing EG when warranted, but your reflexive bashing of him on every conceivable decision or non-decision gets tiresome.

"Fixed" For "correctness" Is it so wrong to fantasize that Singleton & Vesely are going to be waived and that we are looking for replacements? A guy can dream can't he?

[hands11]

Jordan vs Wittman
Haywood = Okafor
Jamison (healthy for 3000 minutes) > Nene (1600 minutes, mostly on one foot)
Butler > Webster
Stevenson < Beal
Arenas < Wall
Blatche, Songaila, Daniels = Ariza, Booker, Seraphin, Temple

I'd say the Jordan team had a much better advantage. But once Wittman got Wall healthy, they had comparable records.

A little quibble with you, nate. I think Okafor is a better player than Brendan, if only because he's tougher, smarter, more consistent -- and much more mature.

And you're right about Arenas being better than Wall (at least at this point), but JW is far better than Arenas at making the players around him better.

I think the numbers have been posted in the Wall thread. Year to date, Wall has been better than Gil after 3 years.

[nate33]

Jordan vs Wittman
Haywood = Okafor
Jamison (healthy for 3000 minutes) > Nene (1600 minutes, mostly on one foot)
Butler > Webster
Stevenson < Beal
Arenas < Wall
Blatche, Songaila, Daniels = Ariza, Booker, Seraphin, Temple

I'd say the Jordan team had a much better advantage. But once Wittman got Wall healthy, they had comparable records.

A little quibble with you, nate. I think Okafor is a better player than Brendan, if only because he's tougher, smarter, more consistent -- and much more mature.

And you're right about Arenas being better than Wall (at least at this point), but JW is far better than Arenas at making the players around him better.

I think the numbers have been posted in the Wall thread. Year to date, Wall has been better than Gil after 3 years.

That's not what I said. I said that Arenas under Eddie Jordan was better than Wall under Wittman. That's pretty much irrefutable.

Wall may indeed pan out to be a better player over his career. I'd say the Wall of last March was better than peak Arenas because he was nearly as impactful on offense while being significantly better on D. Of course, Arenas probably had a few months here and there when he was even better than March Wall.