The RealGM Stretch 4 Obsession

[spolgar]

Season PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
2009-10 8.5 .391 .379 11.6 31.1 21.7 5.8 1.2 1.8 14.5 19.1 86 97 -0.1 0.2 0.1 .043
2010-11 8.3 .429 .367 8.0 13.9 10.9 3.5 1.9 0.5 3.0 10.9 109 101 0.1 0.2 0.4 .119
2011-12 7.1 .510 .477 5.9 9.5 7.7 4.3 1.0 0.9 16.0 16.0 95 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 .010
Career 7.8 .453 .417 7.9 15.8 11.9 4.3 1.4 1.0 12.1 14.8 96 104 0.0 0.5 0.5 .056

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nced::none

That's just not very good... at all.

When Anderson is playing teams that don't really game-plan for him, he's very solid. If/once teams specially prepare for Anderson however, his limitations become very apparent.

Say no to Ryan Anderson.

That is alarming. To be fair, the first year he was playing behind a good Rashard Lewis and didn't get much burn. The second time Rashard Lewis was still there, even if he was less effective, and then Anderson was either covered by Josh Smith, Al Horford or Marvin Williams, Not much of a break. Then the last time he went to the playoffs, his team lost 4-1 to an up and coming Pacers team with the talent to D up on Dwight employing single coverage, thus nullifying most of the effectiveness of the stretch 4. I am willing to let Ryan Anderson slide that he might just be in the wrong place at the wrong time whilst playing for the Orlando Magic, but even with suspending my disbelief, Asik is too high quality of a player to give up even if Ryan Anderon's circumstance are to be regarded with the utmost optimism.

[moofs]

P.S. This is not directed at anyone in particular. I get a bit of a kick out of fans of other teams suddenly chime in how our roster should go when before Harden's acquisition, both high risk signings were panned collectively by the majority of NBA fans, that we had a team of mostly power forwards until August 2012 worried everybody who liked Houston basketball, and garnered nothing but jeers from others. Now that we're winning, and because of Morey's strategy of acquiring assets, we've been able to align ourselves to the new CBA quicker than most other teams. We're frigging stacked. Now people wanna feel safe, root for somebody popular and chime in on a process that they have never been part of, but enjoyed jeering at before the results came into fruition.

It's funny. I am at odds with sitting on my hands laughing at this, and buying stocks in Li Ning. I am pretty confident in knowing now that eventually many Americans will ditch Nikes if this Chinese apparel company sponsors the right combination of stars, as Americans often seek maximum return for their time and attention, even if it is to the detriment of everything else. It would be much akin to the working class switching from cars of the big 3 to Toyota and Honda during the 70s energy crisis, even if it meant putting their neighbors out of a job eventually.

[madbucky]

I just don't get it. You look around this site and it seems like everyone is obsessed with the idea of getting the Rockets a "stretch 4" a.k.a. a Power Forward who can stretch the floor to open up the offense for Dwight.

I agree. I don't think a Stretch 4 is the only solution. When you try to force it, then you put an undersized guy like Delfino at PF, and he'll be struggling on the defensive end. Of course it'd be nice to have a PF who can shoot outside, but if that also means he's undersized, can't rebound, can't defend, then overall it's worse.

[Durins Baynes]

If you could get a true 4 who stretched the floor like KG or Horford that would be even better than a stretch 4 like Ersan, but you may as well hope that a unicorn will fly them over here given how unlikely that is. At least Ersan is in the realms of possibility. 4's with true size and floor spacing capability are extremely rare and valuable, I can't see you getting one of those.

[Nebula1]

I think the stretch 4 is reasonable when discussing Howard and the Rockets. And it's also based heavily in advanced stats which promotes shooting tons of 3s with high efficiency guys.

However, I've long advocated rebounding as a critical factor which suffers a bit from having 4 guys camping on the 3pt line.

Of course, Kevin Love is my ideal candidate for PF on the Rockets. I think a PF rotation of Love and Ilyasova would be perfect.

[RollingWave]

A few general thoughts.

Stretch 4s are only useful if said player is actually a better overall player, that's the part I think a lot of folks are missing on this whole debate , it is not that they are really more ideal as the simple fact that right now there isn't that many traditional 4s who are GOOD. The closet to mind is the Jefferson / Millsap combo which proved to be at least relatively effective despite having almost no competent guard play and iffy defense. this is evidence to a degree that you can still compete with more traditional lineups, the question is do you have the personnel?

If you look around, most 4s today can shoot a decent out side jumpshot, but not that many can really dominate inside the paint, Luis Scola is closer to a traditional 4 , and he did just fine (again, relatively speaking.) David West is a traditionalish 4, they were 1 play away from going to the finals. Zbo is closer to a traditional 4 than not as well etc.

I think we're generally fine as it is personnel wise, there's enough talent there to work with for sure, it's really up to the coaches and players to put it together.

Defensively, Dwight + Asik isn't really a problem, both of them are highly mobile for their size, Dwight is almost certainly faster than most 4s, stretch or not. While we were covering LMA / Dirk type players with Asik anyway last year to begin with. The toughest of those players sometimes present nearly impossible issues anyway, when Dirk is on, it really doesn't matter who's guarding him. we all know that, But if it's Asik / Dwight then you'd at least be in a bigger rebounding advantage when he miss, and probably present a tougher defensive matchup due to the simple fact that Dwight is a gigantic offensive threat. (literally.)


Trade wise, I think they'll certainly keep it in mind, especially if this year isn't working out well or we do poorly in the playoffs. I can think of quite a few plausible trade cases. But it's all too early to speculate on that.

If you read Bickerstaff's interview last week, he does present some good points on coaching in the NBA, in that specialist tend to do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs can often get game planned into obscurity, we saw that a lot last playoff with the likes of Tony Allen and Tiago Splitter, this may also explain why Ryan Anderson's not too effective in the playoffs . and keeping that in mind, it's probably a good idea to try to run this season with this crew and see what we got.

[LarsV8]

This team is blessed and needs to stop chasing stars players. Other teams need them.

Jk...go for the throat. You don't try to build a champion, you try and build the best team ever and crush anyone standing in your way.

[pr0wler]

I'd rather roll with D-Mo and see how he does. While he's not exactly a LMA, Kevin Love, or Ryan Anderson type jumpshooter, I believe he will be able to knock down shots from 15 feet and 3-point land with reasonable consistency. Add in his elite post moves and good height for his position, he could be great next to Howard. His suspect D is partially covered by Asik/Dwight so his weaknesses won't hurt our team as much as others. I'd love to give him a shot.

[Nebula1]

I'd rather roll with D-Mo and see how he does. While he's not exactly a LMA, Kevin Love, or Ryan Anderson type jumpshooter, I believe he will be able to knock down shots from 15 feet and 3-point land with reasonable consistency. Add in his elite post moves and good height for his position, he could be great next to Howard. His suspect D is partially covered by Asik/Dwight so his weaknesses won't hurt our team as much as others. I'd love to give him a shot.

I'm hoping D-Mo comes back better than ever, but the Rockets need to be thinking championship. While I like D-Mo, is he a championship caliber PF? I'm not certain and that's why I want Kevin Love. Love is a great rebounder and can hit the 3 and I think he's the ideal fit for this Rockets team.

[RollingWave]

I

I'm hoping D-Mo comes back better than ever, but the Rockets need to be thinking championship. While I like D-Mo, is he a championship caliber PF? I'm not certain and that's why I want Kevin Love. Love is a great rebounder and can hit the 3 and I think he's the ideal fit for this Rockets team.

Sure, but how do you get Love? (the matchup is terrible at this point given that our 2 main trade piece is a C and PG, and their two best player after love is .... a C and PG...) would downgrading at several other places be worth getting a guy who's going to be a 3rd option on this team? see Chris Bosh pre and post big 3 to see what turning a #1 option to a #3 option is like. people think that's Bosh declining, it's NOT, it's just him getting less shots.

Is Udonis Haslem a championship calibler PF? is Mario Chalmers even a starting caliber PG? is Derek Fisher DA BEST POINT GUARD EVAH COUNT THE RINGZZZ (he has just as many rings as Magic, and in an era with more teams, so by this logic, we can safely conclude that yes, Derek Fisher is indeed the best PG ever, Chris Paul can't hold his bootstrap ), etc... your not going to be perfect everywhere.

If you look at Miami, they essentially left one spot (the Haslem one) as a free matchup spot where no one is a real full time starter and they just mix and match with Haslem / Anderson / Miller / Battier all the time. our PF spot is very likely to be just like that next year.


Fun theoretical question , if we trade Asik + Lin for Chris Bosh, which team got better?

[pr0wler]

Yeah I'd "love to have Love" but realistically, it's going to be tough to get him. Also, I don't think we're going to win a championship this season anyway so I wouldn't mind giving D-Mo at least a look and see what he can do in starters minutes. If he or T-Jones prove to be inaffective, then next off-season we can explore more trade options using Asik as the main piece to grab a PF.

[moofs]

Fun theoretical question , if we trade Asik + Lin for Chris Bosh, which team got better?

Well ok. Nice question. I found myself thinking "no way do I do that", yet I've bandied about Asik->Ilyasova (questioningly, mind you) this offseason.

Perhaps it's due to my prior considerations of pre-decline (silly 28 year old rookies) Scola being as good as pre-Heat Bosh.

The alternatives would obviously be me undervaluing Asik or overvaluing Ilyasova.

[RollingWave]

Fun theoretical question , if we trade Asik + Lin for Chris Bosh, which team got better?

Well ok. Nice question. I found myself thinking "no way do I do that", yet I've bandied about Asik->Ilyasova (questioningly, mind you) this offseason.

Perhaps it's due to my prior considerations of pre-decline (silly 28 year old rookies) Scola being as good as pre-Heat Bosh.

The alternatives would obviously be me undervaluing Asik or overvaluing Ilyasova.

Theoretical argument.

Bosh is the best player of the bunch that's obvious, in terms of "if he's your #1 on a team"

The problem is that he's the #3 player on the Heat, and the # of shots he get is limited because of that.

The problem is for the Rockets and Bosh..... is that he's ALSO the #3 player on the Rockets if that trade happens. which puts him right back in the same spot, though maybe with slightly better role coverage as he's not asked to be a fake center.

However, Lin and Asik actually address the two biggest holes on the Heat roster right now A. a real center B. Norris Cole.

We saw what Hibbert and Duncan and even Noah on 1 leg did to them. it's obvious that the Heat matchup poorly against physical centers. Asik does solve this problem to a large extend.

The other issue is that Norris Cole is probably 3 of the worst player in the NBA who manage to play more than 20 min a game, he's the Heats "hey we'll give you a chance to beat us" player, Lin is clearly a massive upgrade from that if only because Cole is that bad.

Lin fits reasonably well into what they want to do in terms of transition and ball movement and spacing, he probably won't play over Chalmers either due to defense but he does give them another depth / matchup weapon to go around. as if they didn't have enough of those guys already and it's really that sort of matchup ability the put them over the top, if they went with Haslem all the way they probably lost to the Spurs.

Of course, the concern we haven't address is Asik would force the heat to change it's system to some degree, which may or may not be a good thing, certainly when you just won a 2 strait title your not going to blow things up though, your just not.

------------------

I really like Ilyasova as well, I think he's actually the better version of Ryan Anderson, not quite the shooter, but more well rounded player.

In short though, I really really think the Rockets should just try to run with this group and see a few things first. that appears to be the plan anyway, if they can make Asik / Howard combo work enough to keep Asik that would be the best outcome really when you consider the relative marginal utility the 4 would actually bring versus the crazy drop off between Asik to most backup centers.

[moofs]

In short though, I really really think the Rockets should just try to run with this group and see a few things first. that appears to be the plan anyway, if they can make Asik / Howard combo work enough to keep Asik that would be the best outcome really when you consider the relative marginal utility the 4 would actually bring versus the crazy drop off between Asik to most backup centers.

I don't disagree. Every Asik trade I've put out has come with a caveat of uncertainty. If I was Morey, I'd roll with the A-Train too, but I'm bored, and we have a question mark at the 4, so taa daa.

[moofs]

As far as your theoretical argument, I'd say Heat, but I've always considered Bosh overrated.

[RollingWave]

I don't think Bosh is overrated, I think he is an example that when your a #1 option scorer who is made into a #3 option it's not pretty. Allen had the same thing happen too just that people didn't pounce on that narrative as much.

But yeah, I think that theoretically Heat gets better, caveat being that we don't know how the system shakes out.

[Nazrmohamed]

Yall shoulda went after Al Harrington. I remember when he played for the Knicks he did very well as a stretch four. Andhes actually a decent size at 6'9 250 but moves like a SF. Streaky, but would fit in with that style you guys were great at last yr. I think the Wizards signed him though.

One guy, and I havent seen him in two yrs is Jared Jeffries. No offensive game but he is a decent defender, often taking charges and can stay withperimeter players. Hes to the late stage in his career that at least he knows where he fits in IQ wise and when you got the perimeter you have and the inside dominance now with Dwight, my concern is everybody seems to want an offensive stretch four, while putting alot of pressure on Dwight defensively. I think you guys could still bolster your defense and Jeffries does that while allowing you to play the way youre used to. Louis Amundsen is another hustle guy you could use. Yall need a grinder.

[moofs]

I don't think Bosh is overrated, I think he is an example that when your a #1 option scorer who is made into a #3 option it's not pretty.

To clarify, I thought that when he was on the raps as well.

[moofs]

Yall shoulda went after Al Harrington. I remember when he played for the Knicks he did very well as a stretch four. Andhes actually a decent size at 6'9 250 but moves like a SF. Streaky, but would fit in with that style you guys were great at last yr. I think the Wizards signed him though.

One guy, and I havent seen him in two yrs is Jared Jeffries. No offensive game but he is a decent defender, often taking charges and can stay withperimeter players. Hes to the late stage in his career that at least he knows where he fits in IQ wise and when you got the perimeter you have and the inside dominance now with Dwight, my concern is everybody seems to want an offensive stretch four, while putting alot of pressure on Dwight defensively. I think you guys could still bolster your defense and Jeffries does that while allowing you to play the way youre used to. Louis Amundsen is another hustle guy you could use. Yall need a grinder.

You do know that Daryl Morey is our GM and not Glen Grunwald, right?

[RollingWave]

if it's Al Harrington from a few years ago that would be nice, but there is a pretty legit question as to if that Al Harrington still exist.