Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[Dat2U]

If they only win 39 games, then the Wall contract was a HUGE mistake. There's no other way to look at it than that.

I think there is... all you have to do is look at our frontline behind Nene & Okafor and our backcourt behind Wall & Beal.

If we've got lineups where were starting Seraphin or Booker/Harrington or Temple/Maynor.... we'll have a tough time beating anyone.

[Upper Decker]

If all goes right they'll be a 55 win team. When I say all things go right I mean:
1. Wall continues his dominate play from the last two months of the season, 80% possibility.
2. Beal stays healthy all season and averages what he did in Feb'13 (18,5,2), (60%)
3. Webster stays healthy and shoots above 40% from the behind the arch. (50%)
4. Nene stays healthy (30%)
5. Okafor does exactly what he did last year, (50%)
6. Maynor, Ariza, Harrington lead the second unit which is at least league average. (10%)
7. One of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin surpise. (30% on the strength of Booker)

Clearly all of these things won't work out, so using the ceiling of 55 wins and adjusting that based on all the percentages, my PPA matrix calculates 43 wins

[hands11]

If they only win 39 games, then the Wall contract was a HUGE mistake. There's no other way to look at it than that.

They aren't winning only 39 games.

And besides, the extension is for the following year. This year he is on his old contract.

Pretty sure Wall is going to out produce $7,459,924 this year.

[hands11]

If all goes right they'll be a 55 win team. When I say all things go right I mean:
1. Wall continues his dominate play from the last two months of the season, 80% possibility.
2. Beal stays healthy all season and averages what he did in Feb'13 (18,5,2), (60%)
3. Webster stays healthy and shoots above 40% from the behind the arch. (50%)
4. Nene stays healthy (30%)
5. Okafor does exactly what he did last year, (50%)
6. Maynor, Ariza, Harrington lead the second unit which is at least league average. (10%)
7. One of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin surpise. (30% on the strength of Booker)

Clearly all of these things won't work out, so using the ceiling of 55 wins and adjusting that based on all the percentages, my PPA matrix calculates 43 wins

1. Wall continues his dominate play from the last two months of the season, 80% possibility.
2. Beal stays healthy all season and averages what he did in Feb'13 (18,5,2), (75%)
3. Webster stays healthy and shoots above 40% from the behind the arch. (75%)
4. Nene stays healthy (70%) - meaning he play 78 games
5. Okafor does exactly what he did last year, (100%) I think he will be better
6. Maynor, Ariza, Harrington lead the second unit which is at least league average. (80%)
7. One of Booker, Vesely, Seraphin surpises. (50%) - it will be Kevin or Ves, not Booker. I think Booker will be Booker.

Pretty good breakdown and why I still only have them at 45. But I updated to my percentages.
But they have a tough start schedule.

I could see them better then 45. But that alone would be 16 games better then last year. And while the front court should be better this year, there are still questions there. And some teams got better. D Rose will be back. If they could play last years conference, it would be easier to project them higher.

[doclinkin]

Doc - You've got me down for 43 and 39 wins. I believe I should be down for 39. One thing people seem to be forgetting is that the Wizards had a league-worst road win total last year IIRC. We also have a brutal 20 back-to-back games

I ain't got nobody down for nuffin. That's another dude.

As for me, still waiting on the Vegas line, but I'm leery of a few things:

No quality depth behind either of Nene or Okafor. If either of these players goes down then we suffer. If Okafor is out then we're in tank mode, we have nobody who will pick up the slack of rebounding contested bounces. Harrington adds a dimension that makes our offense kinda pretty, but a spread four is a gadget player unless he also can cover a ton of ground on defense. A coat of paint over a rust spot. Might look nice, doesn't fix a problem.

The reckless headlong attacking style of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Each of these guys spends minutes each game picking themselves up off the floor. That suggests they'll spend some time on the bench, recuperating from nicks and dings.

Depth there too: We have back-up for B-Real, each of 'Tell, 'Riza, and Rice can fill in at the spot approximating what he does. But there are maybe 2 players in the league who do what John does, and while I have supported the Maynor signing it is primarily a cosmetic improvement. Offense sells, he's a pass first guy where Price was a defense and caution guy, Maynor stands to make the back-ups look a little better and improve their value in trade. That does not immediately count in the win column, but teams have done well picking up DC castoffs who blossom elsewhere, they may see hidden value in XYZ player and blame the organization.

Incentive for trainers to slow-play recovery time. The prize for tanking is plentiful and ripe. The organization may be concerned about their own jobs and may push, but if we are out of it and have the injury excuse then perhaps there is room for one last bite at that apple.

Trevor Ariza means a great deal to our defense, and we will surely trade him to a contender mid-season. What we land in trade makes me nervous in Ernie's win-now year, I want picks and prospects not late-career grinders, but still the likelihood of trade is there unless we really catch fire and are contending.

Some teams in our conference are tanking but others shored up their weaknesses and added players with immediate effect. Poerter ain't it, nor Rice. We're stocking depth in a column, which allows us to preserve a tank strategy since that is the surest way to a championship.

My gut says stick to your 'pessimistic-happy-surprise' strategy: I want to say 34 wins? Shoot low and either you are right or you are pleasantly surprised. Last year I was trying to drag the board average up and let the cojones pick for me. There are nights when this team will ripsaw through opponents. Balls says 50 wins. Heart says 45. Brain is waiting on the Vegas line.

Then too if we are slipping, I do expect a midseason trade, which will shake things up and chemistry will take some time to settle in. I'm predicting a tantrum/meltdown/hissy fit/fight from Boogie Cousins that gutshoots his value, and Ernie does love a reclamation project, but I'm not happy about the prospect of swapping Okafor/Ariza plus picks for a perpetual malcontent who will cost a manure pile to sign.

[dckingsfan]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
53 - Chocolate City Jordanaire
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, Upper Decker
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, hands11, Dat2U
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Off Rating

TwentyOne920 has 106 (rounding)
DCKingsFan has 101

Defensive Rating

TwentyOne920 has 104
DCKingsFan has 102
hands11 has 86
Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Higga has Yes
DCKingsfan has NO

Porter wins ROY honors

DCKingsfan has NO

Games Lost due to injury - has been canceled due to a dispute

[FreeBalling]

I am excited to be a Bullets fan this year, our team has a great chance to be the 6th or 7th seed.

My prediction for this year is 43 wins and 39 losses.

I also think Bradley Beal has a successful season to the point where people start questioning whether Beal is the best young player on the team.

The answers are found in my icon's swim top or the matrix.

[CaPtaiN eYeSaNo]

46 wins!

[dckingsfan]

Scoring reminder:

Wins - 5 points for 1st, 4 points for 2nd, 3 point for 3rd.

Example where Wizards wing 46 games:

48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360

Jimmy (for the) Recard and sfam would receive 5 points, those with 47 or 45 points would receive 4 points and those with 48 or 44 points would receive 3 point.

We need your offensive and defensive ratings... and so do you, Offensive and Defensive Ratings 3 points for 1st, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd. Where can I find those ratings?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2013.html

Wall Makes the AllStar Squad and Porter wins ROY honors are worth 1 point each.

[hands11]

Scoring reminder:

Wins - 5 points for 1st, 4 points for 2nd, 3 point for 3rd.

Example where Wizards wing 46 games:

48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360

Jimmy (for the) Recard and sfam would receive 5 points, those with 47 or 45 points would receive 4 points and those with 48 or 44 points would receive 3 point.

We need your offensive and defensive ratings... and so do you, Offensive and Defensive Ratings 3 points for 1st, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd. Where can I find those ratings?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2013.html

Wall Makes the AllStar Squad and Porter wins ROY honors are worth 1 point each.

So if you say Otto ROTY - No and you are right, you get 1 pt ?

If so, who in their right mind would say yes. Odds are way to low that you would be right.

ROTY should be a tie breaker bonus and the answer should be open to all rookies. Not a yes or no.

Wall making the AS team is a little different. There are several slots open there. But again, the odds are low for this kind of thing if it just a yes no. Not sure what the best way to weigh that in would be. If no gets you 1 pt and there is only a 20 or 30% chance that he makes it, seems saying no would be the best calculated guess. Even though I would want to vote yes.

I wouldn't factor this in. Just complicates things.

Record
Off Rating
Def Rating
ROTY

That's probably enough. Actually, even that is probably to much. We usually just do the record. If I did anything to this mess, it was only because I was messing about since the thread was started so early.

[dckingsfan]

So if you say Otto ROTY - No and you are right, you get 1 pt ?

If so, who in their right mind would say yes. Odds are way to low that you would be right.

ROTY should be a tie breaker bonus and the answer should be open to all rookies. Not a yes or no.

Wall making the AS team is a little different. There are several slots open there. But again, the odds are low for this kind of thing if it just a yes now. Not sure what the best way to weigh that in would be. If no gets you 1 pt and there is only a 20 or 30% chance that he makes it, seems saying no would be the best calculated guess. Even though I would want to vote yes.

I wouldn't factor this in. Just complicates things.

Record
Off Rating
Def Rating
ROTY

That's probably enough. Actually, even that is probably to much. We usually just do the record. If I didn't to this mess, it was only because I was messing about since the thread was started so early.

Did you run the thread in previous years - I am still new here.

I think the ROTY should stay Wizards specific - but you have a good point - would could change it to Porter going to the AllStar game - or eliminate it. I am good with either.

[hands11]

oooooo

[dckingsfan]

Can we keep this as a prediction thread?

[FreeBalling]

I am excited to be a Bullets fan this year, our team has a great chance to be the 6th or 7th seed.

My prediction for this year is 43 wins and 39 losses.

I also think Bradley Beal has a successful season to the point where people start questioning whether Beal is the best young player on the team.

The answers are found in my icon's swim top or the matrix.

I'll take a shot at this.

Def Rtg: 101.1
Off Rtg: 105.2

[dckingsfan]

oooooo

Sorry, my bad

[dckingsfan]

Wins

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
56 - jeffsays
53 - Chocolate City Jordanaire
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality, nuposse04
49 - AFM
48 - DaRealHibachi, GhostsOfGil
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, hands11
44 - TGW, dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, Upper Decker, FreeBalling
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, MJG, The Fax
39 - DCKingsFan, closg00 - a wise choice
38 - Ruzious, hands11, Dat2U
37 - Earth2Ted
36 - truwizfan4evr
35 - FAH1223
30 - Knighthonor

Offensive Rating

106 - TwentyOne920
105 - FreeBalling
101 - DCKingsFan

Defensive Rating

104 - TwentyOne920
102 - DCKingsFan has
101 - FreeBalling
86 - hands11

Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Higga has Yes
DCKingsfan has NO

[dckingsfan]

Defensive and Offensive ratings? And why?

[stevemcqueen1]

Record: 42 wins. 8th seed. First round 5 game loss.
Wall makes the AS game as a reserve. Porter has a quiet rookie season where he comes off the bench behind Webster, doesn't get a ton of minutes, spends most of the year adjusting to NBA speed, ranges, developing his body, etc.

Beal looks good but not great, puts together most of a quality year with something like a 16 or 17 PER and solid averages.

Nene has a good season, second best player on the team by a solid margin, spends most of it fairly healthy (let's say ~65-70 games) but his averages won't reflect his impact.

And my sleeper prediction, Seraphin and Booker both show signs of life and utility, putting together nice seasons as role players off the bench for a playoff team. Seraphin comes closer to looking like a starter.

ROTY: Zeller.

ROTY usually goes to a guard, but I have a hard time seeing any of the guards run away with it. I don't think Oladipo will score enough, and I think Burke might have a tougher transition than expected. I'd say Burke is the most likely guard, Zeller the most likely big.

I think Olynyk will get ROTY burn though. He's older and more developed. He's playing with Rondo. Boston has absolutely no one else to give minutes to at C. And Boston is going to need someone to score because nobody else will be putting up volume. I could see Jared Sullinger and Olynyk doing a lot of the volume scoring though I don't know if you could play them together without the defense being horrific. Though maybe that's what the Cs are going for.

[barelyawake]

If injuries don't play a major role, then my head says 42 and my heart says 49. I always lead with my heart. So 49.

I think people are undervaluing how good a healthy Harrington is for our line-up. Look over the league's depth charts, and ask yourself if a healthy Harrington (even at his age) is better than other teams' back-up PF. I'd easily rank him a top ten back-up PF. And that radically changes how effective our second line is. A top ten back-up PF replacing Ves and Porter allowing Webster to be our primary back-up two are both huge improvements. It means that we can continue to get buckets (with real ball movement versus Crawford going one on five play after play) and still defend. With Maynor, Nene, Wall, Webster and Porter passing, Harrington will get many open looks that he has proven he can convert. If Beal can take the next step and start becoming a threat attacking the paint, then things really open up. Then, Beal can stay on the floor to lead the second unit -- slashing and dishing back out to shooters (Porter, Harrington and Webster). And that will be leagues better than our hero ball and/or bumbling benches of the past.

Despite the grumbling, EG did a good job with Maynor and Harrington. And we will see the difference (if healthy).

[LyricalRico]

If injuries don't play a major role, then my head says 42 and my heart says 49. I always lead with my heart. So 49.

I think people are undervaluing how good a healthy Harrington is for our line-up. Look over the league's depth charts, and ask yourself if a healthy Harrington (even at his age) is better than other teams' back-up PF. I'd easily rank him a top ten back-up PF. And that radically changes how effective our second line is. A top ten back-up PF replacing Ves and Porter allowing Webster to be our primary back-up two are both huge improvements.

<snip>

Despite the grumbling, EG did a good job with Maynor and Harrington. And we will see the difference (if healthy).

Yep, totally agree. I understand why some have misgivings (especially with Maynor) but I'm expecting good things. Mid 40's in wins if everyone's healthy IMO.