Spurs post-Duncan- will they be able to keep winning 50+

[Durins Baynes]

Assume in 2 more seasons Duncan and Manu retire. Will the Spurs be able to put together a team to keep winning 50+ games a season? I was going to post some of my thoughts on how this could happen, but the problem with the Spurs is that it's really hard to predict their moves, since they usually don't do what is expected. Some of it also comes off as pretty hard for casual fans to believe, because some of the Spurs guys like Kawhi and Corey are just massively underrated. So rather than propose any specific plan I'll just ask the question, and interject as necessary.

They do have some obvious assets- 2015 cap space (a lot of it), Kawhi (who they're hoping/thinking becomes a star; say James Worthy with a 3pt shot) who will be 24 in 2015, Parker will be 33 in 2015 if they want to keep him, Tiago will be 30, Danny Green will be 28 and a free agent. Bench players who might still be solid contributors at that point include Corey Joseph (if they retain him), turning 24, Baynes turning 29 (if they retain him), Belinelli turning 29 (free agent). The Spurs also will have 2 draft picks overseas who look promising once they've had more seasoning- Davis Bertans and Livio will be 22 in the 2015 offseason. I could see both becoming very good bench players (Bertans a 3 filling in at the 4, Livio a stretch 4 off the bench), maybe more.

There are lots of free agents who'd fill the Spurs need of a PF in 2015, such as Aldridge (who is from Texas) and Marc Gasol (who might be drawn by the appeal of an international team if Memphis completely collapses by that point). More likely additions are guys like Paul Milsap or Varejao, or maybe overpaying for Reggie Jackson or Klay Thompson. Other less realistic free agents include Hibbert (who is buddies with Tim), Kevin Love (not giving up money to come to SA), Zach (too old), etc.

The Spurs will also keep having 1st and 2nd rounders to add value as they usually do.

Can the Spurs do it?

[Texas Chuck]

Im going to say no. I think SAS post Duncan/Pop(another meaningful loss you didnt mention) will have the same trouble attracting top FA that all small market teams have. They would have to overpay for 2nd tier players and I doubt they will go that route. I imagine Parker will be traded and likely Splitter too, they will retain Kawhi and build slowly through the draft.

[penbeast0]

Post Duncan, especially if Popovich retires, the Spurs will probably slide to under .500 or at best a marginal playoff team without a significant rebuild. Manu is coming to the end too and even Parker is coming to the age where he will start slowing, especially without another top offensive threat to take the pressure off. Parker/Leonard/Splitter isn't a top 3 that is going to compete with the big dogs unless they pull another diamond out of the sand.

[pacers33granger]

Knowing the Spurs, Jean Livio Charles or some other random Euro prospect they get/have will be a star in a few years. Other than that though I think they will have a tough time for a few years.

[Trader_Joe]

I trust their scouting, their GM and their coaching so they should be fine.

But, my question is.. why is this on the trade board?

[Durins Baynes]

It was about how they would rebuild their team- Like I said, I figured people here would have some more specific ideas they wanted to discuss.

[Scoot McGroot]

I think they'll eventually fill out their future roster by making trades.

(There, now this can fit on the trade forum and not the general forum where it should probably go ).


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[KiDdFrESh]

Say Timmy D and Manu retire in 2 years. Does Pop stick around or does he retire as well?

To be honest I don't see them trading Parker either unless he requests a trade. They may be bad for a year, get a great pick and another franchise player and be right back in the mix again.

[Durins Baynes]

Knowing the Spurs, Jean Livio Charles or some other random Euro prospect they get/have will be a star in a few years. Other than that though I think they will have a tough time for a few years.

Generally Spurs fans are more excited by Davis Bertans from what I've seen:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzbTAkou8DE[/youtube]

He looks pretty good. Still not quite 20.

[NashtyNas]

I trust their scouting, their GM and their coaching so they should be fine.

But, my question is.. why is this on the trade board?

I agree with what you're trying to say, however if Pop retires along with Duncan (and Manu) as expected, I think they will have a tough time staying competitive. The first 2 have been such a big part of why the teams have succeeded that to find a winning recipe without them will be extremely tough. That is not to say that Pop and Duncan will completely go away from the Spurs franchise - I see both of them being re-involved within a short time, either in front office or coaching roles (for Duncan, specifically).

I don't think they'll be winning 50+ right away, and I do think Parker will be moved at some point when those guys are gone. However I also don't believe they will be a bottom dweller for long. For many reasons, players WANT to play for a franchise like the Spurs that's become synonymous with discipline and winning.

[Mykhyn]

A lot of it depends on where Kawhi ends up in terms of production.


But I mean Parker - Green- Kawhi- Splitter-Baynes isn't too terrible. They need more spacing from 4-5s but that isn't exactly a bad team. Really if Kawhi takes a couple steps forward.

[PDXKnight]

I think they'd have a drop off, maybe down to the 48 win range. It really depends on how the other guys step up for SA. Clearly they have the scouting expertise to make a quick turn around and IF Popovic and the scouting staff stay the same or at least similar, I think they already have a great path to continual success as an organization.

[Durins Baynes]

A lot of it depends on where Kawhi ends up in terms of production.


But I mean Parker - Green- Kawhi- Splitter-Baynes isn't too terrible. They need more spacing from 4-5s but that isn't exactly a bad team. Really if Kawhi takes a couple steps forward.

I think the plan would be to bring a 4 on board with their cap room in 2015, or Marc Gasol if they got astonishingly lucky.

[RollingWave]

They remain relevant, but to consistently stay above 50 win is really hard.

Bold prediction, they completely suck the year after Duncan retires, gets the #1 pick, and picks an awesome center

[BlackFalconGSW]

Knowing the Spurs, Jean Livio Charles or some other random Euro prospect they get/have will be a star in a few years. Other than that though I think they will have a tough time for a few years.

Generally Spurs fans are more excited by Davis Bertans from what I've seen:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzbTAkou8DE[/youtube]

He looks pretty good. Still not quite 20.

He was ready to come over this year if I'm not mistaken, but he torn his ACL at the end of the season, right now he's rehabbing in SA, let's see how he'll do next year with Partizan. Livio also is pretty good and may become even better, I think that both have a potential to be very good backups in this league if not starters.

[Durins Baynes]

I don't think Bertans was coming next season. At most he was coming over for summer league ball.

[inquisitive]

if they can get KD as a free agent...sure.

[sonictecture]

The smart move would be to trade Parker when Duncan retires for a draft pick and use their own pick as they start to rebuild through the draft.

[Durins Baynes]

Trading Parker won't work, because he's a free agent in 2015 and will want to dictate where he goes. He's also 33 that year. Not many teams with good draft picks will be keen on him. Plus the classy thing is to let him retire as a Spur if he's amendable to that. Let Corey Joseph gradually get more minutes, and keep Parker fresh, while having a few more playoff runs. The Spurs may need to use the lotto after Duncan retires, but they might feel like they've got enough talent to give winning a try first.

[Ice102]

Why even use the draft after Duncan retires?

Make it their #1 priority to sign LaMarcus Aldridge and keep the international approach with solid scouting.

-Ice