Toronto Star: Alex Anthopolous's worst deal

[polo007]

http://thestar.blogs.com/baseball/2013/ ... -deal.html

But the trade Anthopoulos made that will look worse and worse with time was with the Astros on July 20, 2012. He obtained J.A. Happ (LHP), Brandon Lyon (RHP) and David Carpenter (RHP) for Francisco Cordero (RHP), Ben Francisco (OF) and five, count ’em, five prospects — Carlos Perez (c), Asher Wojciechowski (RHP), Joe Musgrove (RHP), David Rollins (LHP) and Kevin Comer (RHP). This is becoming the worst deal AA has made, and what was he thinking?

Anthopoulos was asked heading into the 2011 off-season whether he had targeted specific players in trade and what he envisioned for opening day. His response was that he had no priority list of targets.

A year after the Happ deal, the 30-year-old lefty has demonstrated that unless he makes some changes, he is a 5-6 inning, 95-105 pitch starter that can at best be described as a No. 5 starter or swingman in the tough AL East.

Now let’s balance that Happ scouting report against the minor-leaguers the Jays gave up. Here’s a look at how they’re doing this season, at what level, and how/when the Jays had obtained them:

Carlos Perez (C, 22, FA 2008): AA-AAA, 91 games, .271, 3HR, 37RBI, .689 OPS

Asher Wojciechowski (RHP, 24, 1st Rd 2010): AA-AAA, 11-8, 3.32 ERA, 160.0 IP, 131 SO

Joe Musgrove (RHP, 20, 1st Rd 2011): Rookie ball, 1-3, 4.41 ERA, 32 2/3 IP, 30SO

David Rollins(LHP, 23, 24th Rd 2011): A-AA-AAA, 9-8, 3.89 ERA, 136 1/3 IP, 137 SO

Kevin Comer (RHP, 21, 1st Rd 2011): A-, 2-5, 4.80 ERA, 45 IP, 43 SO

[Schad]

Not close, Griffin. That was a bad deal, absolutely. But the worst-case of that deal doesn't even begin to approach that of the Mets trade. Woj might be a very solid mid-rotation guy in short order. Carlos Perez is, unfortunately, not living up to his potential. Musgrove hasn't gotten beyond rookie ball due to injury. Comer is struggling to overcome injuries.

So, yeah: bad deal? Sure looks like it. But it pales in comparison to at least one -- and possibly two -- of our other deals in the past twelve months.

[torontoaces04]

Boo Alex, Alex bad!!!

[Randle McMurphy]

Let me know when any of those guys establish a MLB career as good as Happ's (or even establish a MLB career at all), Griffin. Until then, no.

[Schad]

Let me know when any of those guys establish a MLB career as good as Happ's (or even establish a MLB career at all), Griffin. Until then, no.

Happ has posted less than 1 fWAR in a Jays jersey. It's a pretty low bar to clear.

[Randle McMurphy]

Let me know when any of those guys establish a MLB career as good as Happ's (or even establish a MLB career at all), Griffin. Until then, no.

Happ has posted less than 1 fWAR in a Jays jersey. It's a pretty low bar to clear.

Happ's actually posted 2 fWAR as a Jay over his 113.2 IP (and 5.5 fWAR for his career in total). There's just no guarantee that any of the guys they traded (even Woj) will ever be that effective in the majors (assuming they actually make it, which seems to be a big question mark for several of them).

I never did understand getting all up in arms about the insignificant trade of a bunch of fringe prospects for a #5 starter and I still don't get it now a year later. Over that time, it's not as if major league starting pitching depth has ceased to be an issue for this team.

[satyr9]

I was expecting to find by the list of stats for the players that they'd blown up. I knew Woj had turned it up and that's great for HOU, but wouldn't at least one of Perez, Musgrove, and Comer have to be lighting it up for this story to come close to making any sense? If anything he's proving the point that trading 5 prospects for a middling MLBer can be an okay plan, which I never would've thought was the case prior to his piece.

[Lateral Quicks]

Definitely not his worst deal, but still a bad one. The real rub is that he went out and extended Happ in spring training for two more years. It makes little sense to spend significant dollars on your #5 guy, particularly when he's very much a fringey #5 guy.

AA has shown an inability to recognize his mistakes. He's kept Happ. He kept Jo-Jo, CoCo, Bonifacio, etc. around much longer than he should have. All this makes me very concerned that JPK will be back next year, and that he'll make the QO to Johnson.

[Graham's Cracker]

Of the 5 prospects traded 3 of them are rule 5 eligible. Woj will definitely be protected, Perez went unclaimed last year and had a fairly dissapointing season this year. Rollins has exceeded expectations, will be interesting to see if they protect him. He'd probably make a good claim for someone that needs a LHP in the 'pen.

[Michael Bradley]

I said it at the time and I will say it again, the Happ deal was the definition of a "meh trade". The Jays did not give up any top prospects, and the player they got back is average at best. Now, it's possible that one or two of the players Houston got will turn out to be productive, but what's the upside? Will they be as good as Happ? Relievers?

The worst trade AA made (if we discount the Halladay deal) was Napoli for Francisco. At the time it looked terrible, and in hindsight it looks worse. The deal with the highest chance of looking bad in the future is the Dickey trade since the Jays legitimately gave up 2 of their best prospects in that deal.

People really overrate the significance of the Happ deal. Sure it would be nice to have Carlos Perez right now (he is the only player in that deal I didn't want to see go), but the pitchers don't have a tremendous amount of upside, and now the Astros are in the AL, so they will have to face the good AL offenses instead of inflating their numbers in the NL. Could some of these pitchers have been traded for something better than Happ? Maybe. We will never know. But the trade itself was boring and will probably be forgotten in a few years, unless one of the Astros players really blows up.

[Skin Blues]

Let me know when any of those guys establish a MLB career as good as Happ's (or even establish a MLB career at all), Griffin. Until then, no.

Happ has posted less than 1 fWAR in a Jays jersey. It's a pretty low bar to clear.

Happ's actually posted 2 fWAR as a Jay over his 113.2 IP (and 5.5 fWAR for his career in total). There's just no guarantee that any of the guys they traded (even Woj) will ever be that effective in the majors (assuming they actually make it, which seems to be a big question mark for several of them).

I never did understand getting all up in arms about the insignificant trade of a bunch of fringe prospects for a #5 starter and I still don't get it now a year later. Over that time, it's not as if major league starting pitching depth has ceased to be an issue for this team.

People cared so much because Alex traded three of his very recent first round draft picks for a fifth starter. So either his draft picks sucked almost immediately, or he traded good prospects for a fifth starter that is being paid damn near what he's worth (not much surplus value).

[dagger]

A bad trade, but it also helped bury a couple of first round picks who weren't going to pan out. I agree with Skin Blues, the real story of that trade might be the admission that they were ready to give up on three recent first rounders.

[flatjacket1]

Worth noting a few of the guys we traded were rule 5 eligible (Perez) and we could have lost them for nothing...

[Randle McMurphy]

Happ has posted less than 1 fWAR in a Jays jersey. It's a pretty low bar to clear.

Happ's actually posted 2 fWAR as a Jay over his 113.2 IP (and 5.5 fWAR for his career in total). There's just no guarantee that any of the guys they traded (even Woj) will ever be that effective in the majors (assuming they actually make it, which seems to be a big question mark for several of them).

I never did understand getting all up in arms about the insignificant trade of a bunch of fringe prospects for a #5 starter and I still don't get it now a year later. Over that time, it's not as if major league starting pitching depth has ceased to be an issue for this team.

People cared so much because Alex traded three of his very recent first round draft picks for a fifth starter. So either his draft picks sucked almost immediately, or he traded good prospects for a fifth starter that is being paid damn near what he's worth (not much surplus value).

Whether the Jays have drafted well is a different issue entirely.

If AA thought so little of these guys to trade them all in a deal for J.A. Happ a year or two after they were drafted, though, I'd say he didn't like those draft picks much. Might as well get something for the guys you think are going to fail before their value diminishes to nothing.

[Mehar]

Not as terrible as the Dickey deal, but still a bad trade overall trading 5 prospects for Happ (even if all the prospects do not pan out). I am waiting to see what Alex will do in the off-season. I will give him one more off-season, but if 365 days from now- the Jays are in a similar spot as now, there is no reason why Alex should not be fired. What makes the Dickey deal more worse is no longer having D'arnaud as a potential mlb ready Catcher for the Jays in 2014. Hopefully AA can go to the free agent route, get some more dollars from Rogers and get a solid everyday Catcher for this team, because i think it is best for both JPA and the Jays to part ways after this year.

[There There]

Worth noting a few of the guys we traded were rule 5 eligible (Perez) and we could have lost them for nothing...

There was not a few, just Perez.

And no one was going to take a 21 year old who had yet to play above A ball and run him out there as the back up catcher all season.

It was poor use of assets at the time and with Woj again looking like a potential back of the rotation guy, at a fraction of the cost of Happ, it is worse now.

That said, Napoli/Francisco is worse. And if Anthopoulos had planned all summer to make big moves last off season, then Happ at least filled an immediate need of depth.

Obviously Syndergaard/d'Arnaud could top them all, although again, after the Marlins deal, there was legit cause to go all out for someone like Dickey. So regardless what happens, it's hard to outright hate that deal.

[Graham's Cracker]

Worth noting a few of the guys we traded were rule 5 eligible (Perez) and we could have lost them for nothing...

There was not a few, just Perez.

And no one was going to take a 21 year old who had yet to play above A ball and run him out there as the back up catcher all season.

It was poor use of assets at the time and with Woj again looking like a potential back of the rotation guy, at a fraction of the cost of Happ, it is worse now.

That said, Napoli/Francisco is worse. And if Anthopoulos had planned all summer to make big moves last off season, then Happ at least filled an immediate need of depth.

Obviously Syndergaard/d'Arnaud could top them all, although again, after the Marlins deal, there was legit cause to go all out for someone like Dickey. So regardless what happens, it's hard to outright hate that deal.

Rollins and Woj join the rule 5 eligible this year. Woj will certainly be protected, I think Rollins is a good bet to be picked if they don't add him to the 40 man. He looks he can at least be a decent lhp in the bullpen for some team that would claim him.

[There There]

Rollins and Woj join the rule 5 eligible this year.

Correct... but last year, only Perez was eligible. And there was zero chance of losing him last off season to the rule 5.

[Graham's Cracker]

Rollins and Woj join the rule 5 eligible this year.

Correct... but last year, only Perez was eligible. And there was zero chance of losing him last off season to the rule 5.

Yeah, he was a long way from being major league ready even as a lightly used backup.

[Hoopstarr]

Let me know when any of those guys establish a MLB career as good as Happ's (or even establish a MLB career at all), Griffin. Until then, no.

Happ has posted less than 1 fWAR in a Jays jersey. It's a pretty low bar to clear.

Happ's actually posted 2 fWAR as a Jay over his 113.2 IP (and 5.5 fWAR for his career in total). There's just no guarantee that any of the guys they traded (even Woj) will ever be that effective in the majors (assuming they actually make it, which seems to be a big question mark for several of them).

I never did understand getting all up in arms about the insignificant trade of a bunch of fringe prospects for a #5 starter and I still don't get it now a year later. Over that time, it's not as if major league starting pitching depth has ceased to be an issue for this team.

When the quantity of fringe prospects is FIVE it's very significant. They weren't quite as fringe back then either.