Dr Positivity 2014 mock draft

[Dr Positivity]

1. Philadelphia 76ers - PF Julius Randle
2. Phoenix Suns - SF Andrew Wiggins
3. Orlando Magic - PG Kasey Hill
4. Sacramento Kings - PG/SG Dante Exum
5. Charlotte Bobcats - SF/PF Jabari Parker
6. Los Angeles Lakers - PF Aaron Gordon
7. Boston Celtics - SF Mario Hezonja
8. Utah Jazz - PF/C Isaiah Austin
9. New Orleans Pelicans - SF Alex Poythress
10. Toronto Raptors - PG Marcus Smart
11. Detroit Pistons - PG Andrew Harrison
12. Washington Wizards - PF James McAdoo
13. Denver Nuggets - C Willie Cauley-Stein
14. Dallas Mavericks - SG/SF Glenn Robinson III

[Cammo101]

No chance Kasey Hill goes this high. I'd be pretty surprised if he ends up in this draft at all.

[Jazzfan12]

Ehh, I liked McAdoo coming out of high school, but he's shown he's a really bad basketball player in college.

[Baddy Chuck]

You really have the Bucks making the playoffs?

[Dr Positivity]

1. Utah Jazz - PF Julius Randle
2. Sacramento Kings - SF Andrew Wiggins
3. Denver Nuggets - SF/PF Jabari Parker
4. Orlando Magic (from New York, via Denver) - PG/SG Dante Exum
5. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn) - C Joel Embiid
6. Washington Wizards - SF/PF Aaron Gordon
7. L.A. Lakers - PG Marcus Smart
8. Milwaukee Bucks - PG Andrew Harrison
9. Chicago Bulls - PF James Michael McAdoo
10. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SG Gary Harris
11. Cleveland Cavaliers - SF Rodney Hood
12. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - SF/PF Montrezl Harrell
13. Memphis Grizzlies - SF Glenn Robinson III
14. Houston Rockets - SF/PF Dario Saric

[dorkestra]

hey doc,

do you think mcadoo can still realistically be top ten? seem to be a lot of people that slid him back in their mocks after last year's slight disappointment.

[Dr Positivity]

After a few weeks, I'll have to say no to that lol

12/01/13

1. Utah Jazz - C Joel Embiid
2. Milwaukee Bucks - SF/PF Jabari Parker
3. Denver Nuggets (from New York) - PF Julius Randle
4. Sacramento Kings - SF Andrew Wiggins
5. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG/SG Dante Exum
6. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn) - PG/SG Marcus Smart
7. Philadelphia 76ers - PF Aaron Gordon
8. Boston Celtics - PF Noah Vonleh
9. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SF Rodney Hood
10. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - SF/PF Dario Saric
11. Memphis Grizzlies - SG Gary Harris
12. Minnesota Timberwolves - PF/C Montrezl Harrell
13. Phoenix Suns - SF James Young
14. LA Lakers - PG Jahii Carson

[MellowRose]

^No Magic?

[Dr Positivity]

The Magic were tied for 8th when I made the mock (and I give the higher pick to the team with the worse point differential)

[bwgood77]

You really think Jahii Carson can go as high as 14?

[Dr Positivity]

12/16/13

1. Milwaukee Bucks - C Joel Embiid
2. Utah Jazz - SF/PF Jabari Parker
3. Philadelphia 76ers - SF Andrew Wiggins
4. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart
5. Denver Nuggets (via New York) - PF Julius Randle
6. Sacramento Kings - PG Dante Exum
7. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn) - SF/PF Aaron Gordon
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - SF Rodney Hood
9. Washington Wizards - PF Noah Vonleh
10. Memphis Grizzlies - C Willey Cauley-Stein
11. LA Lakers - SF James Young
12. Philadelphia (from New Orleans) - SG Zach Lavine
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - SG Gary Harris
14. Utah Jazz (from Golden State) - SF Glenn Robinson III

[Dr Positivity]

01/26/14

1. Milwaukee Bucks - C Joel Embiid
2. Orlando Magic - PF Julius Randle
3. Philadelphia 76ers - PG/SG Marcus Smart
4. Boston Celtics - SF Andrew Wiggins
5. Utah Jazz - PF Noah Vonleh
6. Sacramento Kings - SF/PF Jabari Parker
7. Los Angeles Lakers - PG Dante Exum
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Willie Cauley-Stein
9. Denver Nuggets (from New York) - SG Zach Lavine
10. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SG Gary Harris
11. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - SG Jordan Adams
12. Minnesota Timberwolves - SF Rodney Hood
13. Orlando Magic (from Denver) - SF Kyle Anderson
14. Memphis Grizzlies - PF Aaron Gordon

[LloydFree]

01/26/14

1. Milwaukee Bucks - C Joel Embiid
2. Orlando Magic - PF Julius Randle
3. Philadelphia 76ers - PG/SG Marcus Smart
4. Boston Celtics - SF Andrew Wiggins
5. Utah Jazz - PF Noah Vonleh
6. Sacramento Kings - SF/PF Jabari Parker
7. Los Angeles Lakers - PG Dante Exum
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Willie Cauley-Stein
9. Denver Nuggets (from New York) - SG Zach Lavine
10. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SG Gary Harris
11. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - SG Jordan Adams
12. Minnesota Timberwolves - SF Rodney Hood
13. Orlando Magic (from Denver) - SF Kyle Anderson
14. Memphis Grizzlies - PF Aaron Gordon

76ers will not pass on Wiggins to draft Smart. And I'd bet every cent I have that Utah will pick Parker over everyone in the draft.

Caulie-Stein won't get drafted in the top 10, and I doubt he gets drafted in the lottery.

[Dr Positivity]

My logic for the Smart-PHI pick is the rise of analytics-based drafting which favors steals, blocks, rebounding, assists all around stats-stuffing - which MCW and Noel fit the profile of like a glove, in addition to Hinkie's general analytics background

I think UTA is too smart to make a decision based on the Mormon connection and marketing. They may pick Jabari but I don't think that's why they pick him. Overall I'm expecting Jabari's draft stock to cool off due to the non elite athleticism and how he's just an OK shooter (hitting under 30% from 3pt in his last 17 Gs/after the first 3 games of the season)

[OleSchool]

01/26/14

1. Milwaukee Bucks - C Joel Embiid
2. Orlando Magic - PF Julius Randle
3. Philadelphia 76ers - PG/SG Marcus Smart
4. Boston Celtics - SF Andrew Wiggins
5. Utah Jazz - PF Noah Vonleh
6. Sacramento Kings - SF/PF Jabari Parker
7. Los Angeles Lakers - PG Dante Exum
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Willie Cauley-Stein
9. Denver Nuggets (from New York) - SG Zach Lavine
10. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SG Gary Harris
11. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - SG Jordan Adams
12. Minnesota Timberwolves - SF Rodney Hood
13. Orlando Magic (from Denver) - SF Kyle Anderson
14. Memphis Grizzlies - PF Aaron Gordon

Interesting mock you have, I like it cause its not the same as everyone else's.

Never thought ORL would go PF, needing a PG so bad but def. plausible.

Like your thinking on the Philly pick, I like Smart, ALOT but don't know if any GM could pass Wiggins at 3.

Disagree about the Utah pick. They have Favors and supposedly Kanter is also playing the 4 can't see Utah taking another PF, unless you're moving Vonleh to C, but he just committed to PF this year.

I can see Clev. taking WCS

Agree with 9 and 10.

Im not high on Adams and if we did take Smart really no reason to take Adams at 11

Do you think Minn would take Gordon to hedge their bets about Love leaving?

[Dr Positivity]

My current top 10/talent grades (25 = Perennial all-star talent, 23-24 = Fringe Perennial all-star talent, 19-22: Blue Chip starter talent, 17-18: Fringe Blue Chip starter talent, 14-16: Rotation player talent, 11-13: Fringe rotation player talent)

1. SG Nik Stauskas - 24
2. PF Julius Randle - 23
3. C Joel Embiid - 23
4. PF Aaron Gordon - 22
5. PG Jahii Carson - 22
6. PF Adreian Payne - 22
7. SF Andrew Wiggins - 21
8. PF Noah Vonleh - 21
9. PG Dante Exum - Around 20-21
10. SF Rodney Hood - 20

[Dr Positivity]

02/17/14:

1. Milwaukee Bucks - C Joel Embiid
2. Philadelphia 76ers - SF Andrew Wiggins
3. Orlando Magic - PF Aaron Gordon
4. LA Lakers - PG Dante Exum
5. Sacramento Kings - SF/PF Jabari Parker
6. Boston Celtics - SG Nik Stauskas
7. Utah Jazz - PF Julius Randle
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Willie Cauley-Stein
9. Denver Nuggets (from New York) - PF/C Noah Vonleh
10. Charlotte Bobcats (from Detroit) - SG Gary Harris
11. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans) - PG/SG Marcus Smart
12. Orlando Magic (from Denver) - PG Tyler Ennis
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - SF/PF Doug McDermott
14. Memphis Grizzlies - SF Rodney Hood

[Cammo101]

My current top 10/talent grades (25 = Perennial all-star talent, 23-24 = Fringe Perennial all-star talent, 19-22: Blue Chip starter talent, 17-18: Fringe Blue Chip starter talent, 14-16: Rotation player talent, 11-13: Fringe rotation player talent)

1. SG Nik Stauskas - 24
2. PF Julius Randle - 23
3. C Joel Embiid - 23
4. PF Aaron Gordon - 22
5. PG Jahii Carson - 22
6. PF Adreian Payne - 22
7. SF Andrew Wiggins - 21
8. PF Noah Vonleh - 21
9. PG Dante Exum - Around 20-21
10. SF Rodney Hood - 20

How did you come up with these numbers?

[Dr Positivity]

I grade players talent level 1 to 11 in these categories for their position, before adding them for a total grade

Athleticism, Ballhandling, Size ("Physical impact")

Shooting, posting, or passing ("Skill impact")

Feel for the Game (Largely signified by fluidity/change of pace for young players)

For eg. Stauskas ranks so high due to great/elite ratings in the skill impact and feel for the game categories and while the other category, is his weakest, I still have him around a 6 or 7 in it (due to elite ballhandling for his position and underrated athleticism anyways, the combination I believe will make him a slasher in the NBA and gives him Manu/Harden potential when added to his other gifts)

Here was my final grades for the 2013 draft, albeit there's a few ratings I feel I made a mistake on (Think I overrated Olynyk's athleticism and underrated Giannis', for one) http://asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com/ ... june-2013/ Overall it is still an imperfect science to grade the players right in each category, even if I had 99% confidence in the overall system. For example in the 2012 draft (my first using it) where my methods were overall v unpolished, my biggest regret was misrating Drummond due to giving him a low rating in skill impact and feel for the game categories at the time, whereas now I would rate him above average in feel for the game (around 7/8). If using fluidity and 'natural' aesthetic to judge the category as I do now instead of results at the time, I feel confident I would do that grade correctly now. As for his skill category he is still not a standout but there is a difference between him and Vesely/Biyombo, as he can finish around the basket well, add in his size alone giving him some post ability and he is more like 4 or 5. I don't rate anyone below a 3 or 4 in the category anymore bc of giving them the benefit of the doubt so again I think I'd have done better rating him there now.

[Cammo101]

I think the concept is cool, but I think having more categories would likely give you a more accurate read on where guys stand. As it is now it seems to overrated the smart, jumpshooter because they ace two of the three categories. Guys like JJ Redick or even someone like Andy Rautins would score really well here because they shoot the lights out and have a very good feel for the game.

Also, defense doesn't seem to get weighted in anywhere.

Just my two cents.