Early Projection: Andre Drummond

[tmorgan]

I don't think I'm going to do one of these for everyone, because frankly, our bench (in terms of minutes) is a complete unknown, but I think I'll do one for each of the four sure-thing starters. Feel free to join in with your opinion, and if you want, your rationale.

Andre Drummond

PPG: 12.8
RPG: 11.0
APG; 0.9
SPG: 1.4
BPG: 2.4
TO/G: 1.8

MPG: 29.8
FG%: 57%
FT%: 43%
PER: 19.5

Dre is obviously going to play more than last year's 20.7 MPG, but the question is, how much? I don't see him getting over 30, because he's likely to be the first starter to sit, and because Monroe is going to play significant minutes at center. There's also a greater possibility of foul issues while playing more minutes against starting-quality players. All that and learning curve fatigue makes me think under 30 MPG is correct.

That issue of quality of opposition is likely to make Drummond somewhat less efficient as well, although some of that will be mitigated by his development. I don't expect to see many plays run for him, but I do expect an even greater involvement in P&R sets, especially when Josh Smith is on the bench and Dre is playing with the second unit -- which he will, as he'll probably be coming back in once Monroe and Jennings take their first rests. So, I think his scoring on a per-minute basis will go up a little, even if he's less efficient about it.

I see some modest improvement in FT%, but a decline in FG% because he'll face tougher defense on average. I do think he'll keep his absurdly high rebounding rate, because he's just that big of a force, even at age 20. He'll probably be improving for at least another three years, so I don't want to expect too much yet.

[MrBigShot]

That's actually a very reasonable projection. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 3 blocks a game though. He showed quite a bit of improvement in terms of defensive rotations in the summer league. Last year I felt that he had good rim protecting instincts and timing, this year I think he's taken another step forward to becoming an elite defensive player. He's not there yet and won't be this year, but I think eventually he will be a FORCE defensively.

[tmorgan]

I didn't really discuss that part, I guess. I projected his blocks/minute to stay about the same, but that could still be defensive improvement. He's no longer the only good shot blocker on the team (Smith), and they will be playing some together, so that could slightly reduce his responsibility in the paint, especially when Moose is sitting and Josh is at PF.

[kurtis48239]

I think what is really going to help not just dre but also moose is josh.At the level he plays at, will make those two raise their level in a friendly but competitive drive in games.It will be great to watch those 3 play off each other.I think dre will suprise alot of people this year and his avg will be higher than what most people think,if he can stay healthy and keep his stamina up,I could see him avg 15/12.Not only does he have moose who is a good passer but now josh who is a good passer ,not to mention a better pg in jennings in the PR.He also has had a full year of practicing,working on health,and more confidence.Whatever happens its going to be a great year and iam sure full of great game threads around here.

[ImHeisenberg]

We're going to do another Drummond projection thread?

[DetroitDon15]

I don't think I'm going to do one of these for everyone, because frankly, our bench (in terms of minutes) is a complete unknown, but I think I'll do one for each of the four sure-thing starters. Feel free to join in with your opinion, and if you want, your rationale.

Andre Drummond

PPG: 12.8
RPG: 11.0
APG; 0.9
SPG: 1.4
BPG: 2.4
TO/G: 1.8

MPG: 29.8
FG%: 57%
FT%: 43%
PER: 19.5

Dre is obviously going to play more than last year's 20.7 MPG, but the question is, how much? I don't see him getting over 30, because he's likely to be the first starter to sit, and because Monroe is going to play significant minutes at center. There's also a greater possibility of foul issues while playing more minutes against starting-quality players. All that and learning curve fatigue makes me think under 30 MPG is correct.

That issue of quality of opposition is likely to make Drummond somewhat less efficient as well, although some of that will be mitigated by his development. I don't expect to see many plays run for him, but I do expect an even greater involvement in P&R sets, especially when Josh Smith is on the bench and Dre is playing with the second unit -- which he will, as he'll probably be coming back in once Monroe and Jennings take their first rests. So, I think his scoring on a per-minute basis will go up a little, even if he's less efficient about it.

I see some modest improvement in FT%, but a decline in FG% because he'll face tougher defense on average. I do think he'll keep his absurdly high rebounding rate, because he's just that big of a force, even at age 20. He'll probably be improving for at least another three years, so I don't want to expect too much yet.

I'd love to see Drummond play 36 but that isn't happening. I think if we get a double double with 25 minutes per game played i'll take it. I'm not sure he will play a lot of games at 30 plus. He Is still learning to play in the NBA and Frank killed his develop by not playing him more when this season was over. Jason Maxiell had no business being in the starting line-up as much as he was.

[Warspite]

That looks like a high end to homer projection. When I look at our front court rebounding wise it looks so good as a trio that ind stats my suffer. Ewing/Oakley for example. Ewing looks like a so-so rebounder with his 10rpg and 14% reb rate but he played with Oakley who was a monster on the boards.

I would guess hes going to 80% of what tmorgan projects. Near double double but closer to 25mpg.

[tmorgan]

Well, if you're taking off about 16% of his projected minutes and about 20% of his production, then all you're really arguing is how much he'll play, not how he'll produce on a per-minute basis.

As many others have said in other threads, I don't think all three quality bigs will be on the court together more than about 10-12 minutes a game. It's probably true that Smith OR Monroe will be on the floor with Dre for most of his minutes, but I don't think that's going to cut his rebounding rate much -- there are going to be plenty of rebounds, both because of quality defense and because we aren't exactly a top-notch shooting team.

[Warspite]

Well, if you're taking off about 16% of his projected minutes and about 20% of his production, then all you're really arguing is how much he'll play, not how he'll produce on a per-minute basis.

As many others have said in other threads, I don't think all three quality bigs will be on the court together more than about 10-12 minutes a game. It's probably true that Smith OR Monroe will be on the floor with Dre for most of his minutes, but I don't think that's going to cut his rebounding rate much -- there are going to be plenty of rebounds, both because of quality defense and because we aren't exactly a top-notch shooting team.

Oh yeah...

Drummonds per min production will be higher the fewer mins he plays. As he plays more that production will decline. If I think he will have similar production per min as you but think he will play fewer mins then we differ because you think that his min production would not decline while I think it will. Its a small differance to be honest.

I dont know about the rebounds. Im reading today about how the NBA is continueing to slow down and jack up more and more 3s.

However its all conjecture and I have no right to question you as Im as much or more in the dark. It seems to me that your expectations are not extreme so once again you will be the voice of reason during the season when fans get to high and to low.

[Clarity]

I like & agree w/ the original posters predictions.

[Cowology]

That looks like a high end to homer projection. When I look at our front court rebounding wise it looks so good as a trio that ind stats my suffer. Ewing/Oakley for example. Ewing looks like a so-so rebounder with his 10rpg and 14% reb rate but he played with Oakley who was a monster on the boards.

I would guess hes going to 80% of what tmorgan projects. Near double double but closer to 25mpg.

While that makes sense, Ewing was also a jumpshooter and comfortable playing further away from the basket. In our case it should be Monroe who is pushed further away. I'm not saying there won't be any impact at all, but Drummond should be the guy parked under the basket impacting the rebound rate of Monroe/Smith. He's got no place else to go and he's the more dominant guy on the glass with his quickness, size and athleticism.

[Brapman]

Don't underestimate how great Drummond is defending all over the court. His agility and mobility and his freaky-good hands is really an unreal package - maybe even beyond what Howard could ever do. He's got Hakeem/Howard level athletic ability in a much bigger frame.

We want him switching out and covering around the perimeter. He's got the AA to do that and still defend in the paint - which is crazy. But with Josh Smith on the team, we've now got a second guy who can rotate into and defend the paint and rim, as well as covering out at the perimeter. There really isn't another duo like this in the NBA. It's the defensive strength of our team to have these two.

[need4detroit]

Don't underestimate how great Drummond is defending all over the court. His agility and mobility and his freaky-good hands is really an unreal package - maybe even beyond what Howard could ever do. He's got Hakeem level athletic ability in a much bigger frame.

We want him switching out and covering around the perimeter. He's got the AA to do that and still defend in the paint - which is crazy. But with Josh Smith on the team, we've now got a second guy who can rotate into and defend the paint and rim, as well as covering out at the perimeter. There really isn't another duo like this in the NBA. It's the defensive strength of our team to have these two.

Fixed.

Howard isn't as athletic as Dre nor Hakeem. Too stiff.

[Cowology]

I half-agree. Drummond definitely has the ability to switch and cover guys on the perimeter. My favorite play from last season was him picking Wade's pocket on consecutive possessions. But that should be more the exception than the rule.

Several years ago during the Artest/Big Ben debates for DPOY we frequently made the argument that while Artest was a lockdown defender, it's simply more valuable to have somebody protecting the paint and impacting all 5 guys on the other teams roster as opposed to shutting down one. That still rings true.

There will be times when Drummond will switch, but despite how good and capable he may be his presence will still be most felt when he's dominating the middle and you don't want to stray to far from that.

As for comparing bigs, I agree Drummond is more athletic than Howard. Hakeem is a tougher comparison. He was quicker than Howard, had better footwork, hand-eye coordination etc, but Howard is stronger and can jump higher. I guess it depends on how you define athleticism. Obviously Hakeem was superior in basically every single facet of the game... but I'm not sure if he could put a quarter on top of the backboard and dunk a basketball.

[theBigLip]

A lot of factors go into predicting numbers - how many minutes Drummond plays, what kind of tempo the Pistons play, how many points Smith and Jennings consume. So I'm not going to guess.

That being said, I want him to be a defensive force and play 30mpg. He doesn't need to score 20ppg, but I want teams to stress about how to guard him so it opens things up for all our 3 point shooters.

And last but not least, I want him to start hitting 60-70% from the line. Otherwise, it becomes challenging to have him in the lineup late in the game.

[ComboGuardCity]

I don't want Dre coming out on switches at all. His biggest advantage is in the paint. Sure, he can show on screens but 95% of the time he needs to be protecting the rim. That's why we spent money on Josh.

[ripper3264]

I don't want Dre coming out on switches at all. His biggest advantage is in the paint. Sure, he can show on screens but 95% of the time he needs to be protecting the rim. That's why we spent money on Josh.

How many steals last season did he get when coming out on switches? Alot. Its not the worst thing in the world

[ImHeisenberg]

I don't want Dre coming out on switches at all. His biggest advantage is in the paint. Sure, he can show on screens but 95% of the time he needs to be protecting the rim. That's why we spent money on Josh.

Depends on the line-up and situation. If Smith rotates towards the rim, it would be advantageous of Dre to use his speed and size to break a play apart, chasing somebody away from the paint.

[Brapman]

We want both of them flying all over the court - as long as they are within the scheme of the defense. Each of them have great defensive attributes - and the ability to cover obscene amounts of space on the court and bother anyone anywhere on the court is one of those attributes.

This will be the closest thing we've had to having a Ben Wallace or Rodman on the court. The thing is, we've never had 2 of those guys at the same time.

I so want to see Mitchell on the court with them at times. Imagine 3 guys like this on the court at the same time. Sick sick sick potential of D.

[ComboGuardCity]

I don't want Dre coming out on switches at all. His biggest advantage is in the paint. Sure, he can show on screens but 95% of the time he needs to be protecting the rim. That's why we spent money on Josh.

How many steals last season did he get when coming out on switches? Alot. Its not the worst thing in the world

Maybe 10 total. I don't think its something that should be seen as a focal point on defense. You want your best interior defender in thr interior.