The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[Nivek]

I just don't see the point in acquiring Nowitzki, unless it's a rental kinda thing to put a team over the top. It'd be easier to get him than to find the next Nowitzki because of the fact that he's 35 and doesn't have much time left. Great player in his prime, but that prime is 5 years ago. He's still good, but I just don't see the point.

If the Wizards made this move, it would be defeatist in my view. It would be an incredible admission from Grunfeld and Leonsis (who should be hyper-competitive) that they're unable to put together a deal to acquire a true building block so they'll just tape together other leftovers and hope to get lucky sometime, some way.

To me, it would be a repeat of the Okafor/Ariza trade -- just punting on cap room because they lack the competence and confidence to build a real contender.

[stevemcqueen1]

I wouldn't see it as defeatist Nivek.

Ted and Ernie view Wall as that building block you speak of.

Acquiring Dirk would be intended as a compliment to Wall--finding a role player to play a key role on a contender like Miami signing Ray Allen.

Dirk knows he's going to have to take a major pay cut next contract. He's talked about it openly. I also think Dirk has absolutely no intention of leaving Dallas. And I think Cuban will have some sentimentality here and try and take care of Dirk because players like him don't come around very often. Similar situation as Kobe and LA except Kobe won't take a pay cut.

I don't think Dirk is realistic for us. I don't think there is going to be interest from either party. I don't think it's realistic we'll sign any big name TBH. But if we did, I think the two most realistic options are Cousins and Love. For both to be even remotely realistic, Minny and/or Sacramento have to keep losing.

[hands11]

Cuban's in it to win championships. If they can't compete, he'll rebuild. And they can't compete with what they have now.

He's won a championship in the recent past with Dirk as his centerpiece.
He's a lot closer to winning a ring with Dirk than without him.
And he's a wholehellalot closer to winning with Dirk than he would be with whatever he would get from the Wizards in trade.

Look at Dallas' roster. It's nowhere near as good as the championship roster. I'm not sure how you think there's ANY chance that roster competes for a championship. If you do, enlighten us. Dirk is 35. He's the only asset they have that can get siginificant pieces to start a rebuild. If they wait, they can lose him for nothing - and their rebuild likely takes a couple years longer. Wright and Blair were nice small starts, but that's a team that probably doesn't make the playoffs and gradually continues in deterioration mode if they keep Dirk and put off rebuilding.

That's the same thing Boston was dealing with and why they set PP and KG free.

Cube is going to have to take him lumps at some point. If he really loves Dirk, he would do this. Its the respect you give a HOF player that has done so much for your franchise. They will likely look for the right trade. If they can't find it, Dirk will likely walk and Dallas gets nothing for it.

Tough situation for a franchise to deal with but they have to deal with it.

Dirk would be perfect with the Wizards. What would be a better fix/destination for him ?

For the Wizards, he is just 3 years removed from winning a title. Its a KG, Ray Allen like move. 70% of regular Dirk is still an awesome player. You can give it to him at crunch time. You can't cover his shot from outside and he would be wide open with out roster. Age isn't stopping that. He doesn't even jump and have all kind of ways to get you off balance. He knows how to win it all. He is 7 foot and shot .414 from 3 last year.

You'll are fooling yourselves. If we inked Dirk for 2 years without losing any important pieces, you would be doing back flips.

Wall
Beal
Webster/Otto
Dirk, AH
Nene, Okafor

Thats a very strong core roster. And if he is a UFA, we can keep other pieces we already have.

[hands11]

Dirk Nowitzki? He is 35. No, great players don't stay great forever. He's been trending down overall the last few years and -- as with every single player! -- will continue to trend down. If we are looking at contending for a title, we're looking two+ years out and should acquire youth not old age. Ditto on a number of other names mentioned in this thread.

"Names" is the key word -- you don't win by collecting big "name" players at the ends of their careers. If we are going to indulge in fantasies, fine, but lets at least fantasize about guys entering the middle of their careers! Kevin Durant, etc. -- not that he's in any sense likely to come here either!

We already have youth in Wall, Beal, Otto, Glen and maybe one of Kevin, Ves

We don't need more youth as the next step though we have a draft every year to add some. We need established winners to help us win now and PF step with an experience long ball shooter like Dirk would be perfect. As long as its only a two year deal we can get Wall and Beal the valuable deep playoff experience they need now so they are the bomb playoff tested producers in two years. Then you reload around them with KD and keep it going. Gotta think big or go home.

Cousins isn't a proven winner. He doesn't get you there. Love isn't a FA for a few more years.

Forever building with youth doesn't get you very far. I don't believe Cleveland is as close as people think. We aren't getting a top 3 pick in this years draft. You can keep loading with latter round players but almost every young player takes 2-3 years to get good enough to produce in the playoffs unless they are surrounded by vets.

Time to end the kiddy go round. Get a proven vet like Dirk. Even 3/4 of Dirk prime is still a ton added to the team. Get a Dirk and win in the playoffs with Nene, Wall and Beal and others will follow in his foot steps.

[hands11]

I wouldn't see it as defeatist Nivek.

Ted and Ernie view Wall as that building block you speak of.

Acquiring Dirk would be intended as a compliment to Wall--finding a role player to play a key role on a contender like Miami signing Ray Allen.

Dirk knows he's going to have to take a major pay cut next contract. He's talked about it openly. I also think Dirk has absolutely no intention of leaving Dallas. And I think Cuban will have some sentimentality here and try and take care of Dirk because players like him don't come around very often. Similar situation as Kobe and LA except Kobe won't take a pay cut.

I don't think Dirk is realistic for us. I don't think there is going to be interest from either party. I don't think it's realistic we'll sign any big name TBH. But if we did, I think the two most realistic options are Cousins and Love. For both to be even remotely realistic, Minny and/or Sacramento have to keep losing.

If Kobe wasn't inked for 30M next year his ass would be seriously considering greener pastures. But coming off injury and being signed for 30M. Kobe is going to tow the company line of winning in LA. Lets see what he is saying next year.

HOF players don't want to end their careers playing out the string on a rebuild. They want to be in the fight.

[verbal8]

While getting the "next Dirk" like Ryan Anderson or Ilyasova at a reasonable price would be a great move I don't think those are likely. Mainly because I don't think those guys are available for a reasonable price.

A scenario where Dirk was available as a rental(the Mavs go full on tank) and the Wizards are trade "buyer" seems pretty unlikely and even more so when you look at the assets to match Dirk's salary. Players like Webster and Ariza are nice to have, but they aren't going to make anyone give up even an aging Dirk. Okafor almost has to be included from a salary matching point of view, but then that leaves the Center position pretty thin.

I think a more likely rental target would be Dalembert, Carter or even Bernard James.

[Ruzious]

Ernie's kids may finally find a useful purpose as trade filler.

[verbal8]

Ernie's kids may finally find a useful purpose as trade filler.

IMO that is the biggest justification for keeping Vesley and Singleton on the roster.

[hands11]

While getting the "next Dirk" like Ryan Anderson or Ilyasova at a reasonable price would be a great move I don't think those are likely. Mainly because I don't think those guys are available for a reasonable price.

A scenario where Dirk was available as a rental(the Mavs go full on tank) and the Wizards are trade "buyer" seems pretty unlikely and even more so when you look at the assets to match Dirk's salary. Players like Webster and Ariza are nice to have, but they aren't going to make anyone give up even an aging Dirk. Okafor almost has to be included from a salary matching point of view, but then that leaves the Center position pretty thin.

I think a more likely rental target would be Dalembert, Carter or even Bernard James.

He is a UFA next year.

Paul George says he is signing an extension with Indy as expected. Cross one more name of the list of who Cuban could bring in to make a different enough that Dirk would stay.

They are going to have to land one of Melo, Pau or Bosh for it to make sense for Dirk to resign in Dallas and two of those players have player options to stay were they are and make a boat load. Pau might be Cubans best shot. But that doesn't answer their SF issue.

Ok, if Melo and Paul go to Dallas they have a chance again, but they have Monte Ellis as their SG.

Just not looking good for Dallas. Hopefully Cuban is clueless enough to try to hold onto Dirk all year thinking he can land a Melo or Pau, then when he doesn't, Dirk walks and he gets nothing for him.

We sign Dirk for 2 year at about 10-12M, team option on the 3rd. Okafor resigns for 6-7M years, 3rd team option.

Edit. Exact numbers aren't important. This is just a wag at cost.

EG signs with Dallas to monitor the tank for the next 3 years.

[dangermouse]

Someone will offer Dirk more than that, and someone will offer Okafor more than that, too.

[rockymac52]

If Okafor's going to be out for a while, and no trades are in the works, then I'd probably be ready to cut Singleton (or Temple, honestly, although I know some like him here) in order to open up another roster space to sign a backup CENTER who can protect the rim and rebound the ball.

The guy I'm looking at is somebody I mentioned as a possibility for us to sign for the minimum or BAE at the start of the summer: Cole Aldrich.

I'm not saying he's going to blossom into a star, or that he's a sure-thing, but I think he has some talent and his strengths fit in perfectly with what we currently need. He's still very young, and has room to grow. However, it's never a good sign when you've been on 3 teams in your first 3 seasons, and no one has given you even a minimum guaranteed deal yet. He played sparingly in his first three seasons, typically only in garbage time against scrubs, it appears. So his limited stats might even be somewhat inflated because of that. But he's proven to be a very good rim protector, evidenced by his career 4.9 BLK% and 2.4 BP36. He's also been a very good rebounder on both sides of the floor, evidenced by his career 9.3 ORR, 23.6 DRR, and 16.6 TRR. Offensively, he's very limited, but he converts the few shots he takes at the rim at a pretty good rate.

If he's good enough to warrant more than garbage time minutes, great. It appears that the rest of the league thinks he isn't that good though, so maybe there's a reason he's still a free agent, and we should leave him be. But at the same time, we're talking about our 15th man, and at least he gives us depth and skills at a position of need, whereas Singleton is honestly just wasting a roster spot at this point. Just throwing the idea out there, not saying it's a move that needs to be made or anything like that, but I think it's our best option if we're looking at a free agent.

[hands11]

If Okafor's going to be out for a while, and no trades are in the works, then I'd probably be ready to cut Singleton (or Temple, honestly, although I know some like him here) in order to open up another roster space to sign a backup CENTER who can protect the rim and rebound the ball.

The guy I'm looking at is somebody I mentioned as a possibility for us to sign for the minimum or BAE at the start of the summer: Cole Aldrich.

I'm not saying he's going to blossom into a star, or that he's a sure-thing, but I think he has some talent and his strengths fit in perfectly with what we currently need. He's still very young, and has room to grow. However, it's never a good sign when you've been on 3 teams in your first 3 seasons, and no one has given you even a minimum guaranteed deal yet. He played sparingly in his first three seasons, typically only in garbage time against scrubs, it appears. So his limited stats might even be somewhat inflated because of that. But he's proven to be a very good rim protector, evidenced by his career 4.9 BLK% and 2.4 BP36. He's also been a very good rebounder on both sides of the floor, evidenced by his career 9.3 ORR, 23.6 DRR, and 16.6 TRR. Offensively, he's very limited, but he converts the few shots he takes at the rim at a pretty good rate.

If he's good enough to warrant more than garbage time minutes, great. It appears that the rest of the league thinks he isn't that good though, so maybe there's a reason he's still a free agent, and we should leave him be. But at the same time, we're talking about our 15th man, and at least he gives us depth and skills at a position of need, whereas Singleton is honestly just wasting a roster spot at this point. Just throwing the idea out there, not saying it's a move that needs to be made or anything like that, but I think it's our best option if we're looking at a free agent.

Only reason to keep Singleton is if he is better then Booker or can do what AH will do for us. There is really no reason to keep him if he can't do better than either of them. He was supposed to at least be able to catch and shoot. Not sure what happen there. He always seems to be drifting or off balance and his shot is flat.

I think all of Ernie's kids get this as their final year to prove that have something to contribute. I don't see them keeping all of them, but I think the thinking is to hold on as long as they can so maybe they can actually get something for the ones that don't stick and so they are more sure about the one they do keep.

[nate33]

If Okafor's going to be out for a while, and no trades are in the works, then I'd probably be ready to cut Singleton (or Temple, honestly, although I know some like him here) in order to open up another roster space to sign a backup CENTER who can protect the rim and rebound the ball.

I would DEFINITELY cut Singleton before Temple.

I don't trust Beal's ball handling ability yet. As of last year, he was indistinguishable from a SF in terms of offensive basketball skills. That leaves only Wall, Maynor and Temple as guys capable of putting the ball on the floor and getting the team into their offensive sets. This team is one injury away from needing to play Temple 10-20 minutes a game. If Beal develops the ball handling skills to fill in a PG in a pinch, then maybe I'd reconsider. But as of now, he hasn't show it.

Singleton, on the other hand, is utterly dispensable. Our depth chart at SF is: Webster, Ariza, Porter, Harrington, Singleton. Our depth chart at PF is: Nene, Booker, Vesely, Seraphin, Harrington, Singleton. We would need at least three injuries at SF or 4 injuries at PF before Singleton would actually be needed in an NBA game.

[hands11]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... -Extension


As expected.

So what does a max for Cousins look like year by year.

13 to start ? Wall got 13.7

Interesting to read Shaq is buying a piece of the SAC team. Good move for SAC. Shaq is even mentoring DMC. Talk if Cousins going here wasn't something I saw in the cards. This makes it even less so.

[nate33]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/229963/DeMarcus-Cousins-Kings-On-Track-To-Sign-Contract-Extension


As expected.

So what does a max for Cousins look like year by year.

13 to start ? Wall got 13.7

Interesting to read Shaq is buying a piece of the SAC team. Good move for SAC. Shaq is even mentoring DMC. Talk if Cousins going here wasn't something I saw in the cards. This makes it even less so.

If I'm Cousins, I don't sign an extension unless it's for the max. Somebody will be willing to pay him a max salary this summer (perhaps us). No need to take less money.

[rockymac52]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/229963/DeMarcus-Cousins-Kings-On-Track-To-Sign-Contract-Extension


As expected.

So what does a max for Cousins look like year by year.

13 to start ? Wall got 13.7

Interesting to read Shaq is buying a piece of the SAC team. Good move for SAC. Shaq is even mentoring DMC. Talk if Cousins going here wasn't something I saw in the cards. This makes it even less so.

If I'm Cousins, I don't sign an extension unless it's for the max. Somebody will be willing to pay him a max salary this summer (perhaps us). No need to take less money.

Without a doubt. Plus you rarely see players sign for $1-2 million less than the max annually. If you're worth $13 million a year, you might as well be worth $13.7 million a year (max). I have to imagine if he's actually about to sign an extension that it's a max contract, even if it's only 4 years instead of 5.

So all that leaves is Greg Monroe, right? Excluding true superstars who aren't coming here (unless mayyybe Melo).

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah that just leaves Monroe, and I'd imagine Detroit will keep him too.

Teams just have too much control with RFAs. If we're going to hope to sign a FA from the same generation as Wall, we'll probably have to wait until they hit UFA for their third contract.

I'm no longer expecting us to make a major FA acquisition any time soon. Maybe when Wall and Beal actually establish themselves as All Stars, we can have that kind of pull. I don't think it'll come together before that. Our options will probably be middle tier FAs that can come in and play roles and fill in the gaps but won't push us into contention. We're going to have to rely on Wall and Beal to be those guys for us.

[Ruzious]

Yeah that just leaves Monroe, and I'd imagine Detroit will keep him too.

Teams just have too much control with RFAs. If we're going to hope to sign a FA from the same generation as Wall, we'll probably have to wait until they hit UFA for their third contract.

I'm no longer expecting us to make a major FA acquisition any time soon. Maybe when Wall and Beal actually establish themselves as All Stars, we can have that kind of pull. I don't think it'll come together before that. Our options will probably be middle tier FAs that can come in and play roles and fill in the gaps but won't push us into contention. We're going to have to rely on Wall and Beal to be those guys for us.

I think you're right that Monroe won't leave Detroit via free agency, but I do think they'll trade him unless they start winning. I just don't think he's particularly effective playing with Drummond, because it forces him to become more of a perimeter player. Detroit will have a ton of cap space, so money is no object for them, but I think team chemistry is. The experts love Drummond, so if they build around Drummond, they need players who complement him. Considering they won 29 games last season, they gots work to do.

[TGW]

I don't see that team in Detroit working.

Smith or Monroe will be available at the deadline. They don't compliment each other well, and I think Josh Smith is a slash 4, as opposed to a 3. Playing Smith at the 3 just exposes his shortcomings as a poor outside shooter.

[Ruzious]

I don't see that team in Detroit working.

Smith or Monroe will be available at the deadline. They don't compliment each other well, and I think Josh Smith is a slash 4, as opposed to a 3. Playing Smith at the 3 just exposes his shortcomings as a poor outside shooter.

Yeah, I think they need to play Smith at the 4 and get a 3 AND a 2 who can hit 3's. Pope may or may not be an answer. He's got talent (toolsy, as they say in baseball), but he's a player I couldn't get a feel for one way or the other - which usually means he won't make it.