The 2013 NBA Free Agency Thread

[barelyawake]

A) I can't find the vote totals, but those are first place votes, right? He got more votes, just not first place votes, right? And thus, others considered him better than average that season?

B) I still would love to see the lists, because it seems odd that so many here (and sport writing columns from the time) remember him as a productive player who was more than "better than average," when he was healthy. Also odd so many sportswriters at the time ranked him much higher than "average" when listing the top SFs for many of the years in question.

C) If you google "all star snub," one of the most frequent names discussed is Hedo -- again, by sportswriters.

D) I'm very certain if you asked Magic fans, they would not call his play (when he was healthy) as average -- especially after leading them to the finals.

[stevemcqueen1]

I always thought Turkoglu was a competent and useful starting caliber player but not really that special. I think what makes him stand out to fans is how odd his mix mash of skills is. He was certainly an original and entertaining player. During his prime he was a big pain in the ass to guard. His release was so blindingly fast was so high it made you close out hard on him. He was a very aggressive shooter too. But he could put it on the court and had some wiggle plus the natural passing ability to make guys look dumb when they played him tight.

But it's not like he was really a big time scorer or notable defender.

I remember when he was still Hidayet. I remember that Kings team with him and CWebb, Vlade Divac, Peja Stojakovic, and White Chocolate being very entertaining. To me they represent the goofiness and shiftlessness of that era in the NBA--an aesthetic high point in an otherwise awful era. They were a rally point for everyone who hated the Lakers back then.

[barelyawake]

Ok, but isn't a competent and useful starter "better than average"? I mean, if you do the math. He's a starter. That makes him top third already (average being 50%). Now, he's a competent and useful starter meaning what? Top quarter? Top fifth? And by that I assume you mean his baseline. He certainly had peaks greater than that, and valleys lower due in large part to injury.

If Nivek meant average "for a starter," then that's fine. And if he meant "better than average as a starter, with one or two years much better," then again that's fine. I just think grading a guy's career while adding in years he was injured is bunk.

[Ruzious]

...No, it's just that I can't understand how anyone who saw him year after year could have your view of him. So, I do find it VERY hard to believe that you watched him play. And if you did watch him play, he was a small forward - sometimes shooting guard. He rebounded fine for his position. He wasn't just a scorer in his prime - as everyone except you seems to realize. He was a great passer, a good ball-handler, and could take it to the basket. We all know he's stunk the last few years. You said he's always been a terrible player. If you' actually watched him many years - my apologies - and that would mean you're more than likely a terrible judge of talent.

You can look at my record on players, draft picks, etc. to see whether I'm a terrible judge of talent. Happy to put it up against anyone else's here (but I have no interest in comparisons and certainly not in an argument).

Still, even Homer nods -- and so does PIF. Hence I was wrong.

Hadn't thought about HT in a long time, and I forgot that in the mid-years of the previous decade he played well for a few seasons. Hence, "always has been" was incorrect. What I meant, or at least what I should have meant, is that overall, based on total career, he's been a below average NBA SF.

Apologies.

Sorry for being harsh there. I guess I was reacting to the harshness of your comment to Rico - who responded the way I probably should have. Being wrong there doesn't NECESSARILY mean you don't watch basketball.

[Illuminaire]

Barely,

Two quick thoughts. One, I think you're slightly overrating Hedo's overall impact. Dude was fun to watch, but he had a lot of deficiencies even at his best. He was one of those "bigs" who played like a guard. He did it well, but he still played like a guard, with all the defensive and rebounding baggage that entailed. The sum always seemed to be a little less than the parts because of that.

Two, your rating scheme there may be ignoring a key fact - in the NBA, starters play 75% of the available minutes. So in terms of players who actually *play*, an average starter is pretty much average. Scrubs barely factor into actual play time or effective team building - they provide injury depth and a place to groom prospects. It's the top-8 who really matter on almost every team.

[Nivek]

A) I can't find the vote totals, but those are first place votes, right? He got more votes, just not first place votes, right? And thus, others considered him better than average that season?

Awards voting information is available at basketball-reference -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... .html#smoy. Not certain, but it looks like there were 125 votes cast in which each ballot is asked to name one player.

B) I still would love to see the lists, because it seems odd that so many here (and sport writing columns from the time) remember him as a productive player who was more than "better than average," when he was healthy. Also odd so many sportswriters at the time ranked him much higher than "average" when listing the top SFs for many of the years in question.

Well, I think this is just a slightly different way of saying what I said. He had three seasons that rated solidly above average in my analysis. He was productive in those seasons; less productive in others.

And, citing "sportswriters" isn't persuasive for me. The horrible analysis from sportswriters and TV guys is what got me into stats in the first place. So much of what they were saying was demonstrably false with a quick check in the monthly numbers from The Sporting News. Generally, the views of "sportswriters" can be distilled by this formula: minutes per game + points per game + rebounds (or assists) per game + team wins above expectations.

C) If you google "all star snub," one of the most frequent names discussed is Hedo -- again, by sportswriters.

I remember stuff about Hedo being snubbed. The only year I thought he was even close was 2007-08. But that season, here were the Eastern Conference SFs that I had rated as more productive: Lebron, Paul Pierce, Caron Butler, Iguodala, Jamario Moon, Tayshaun Prince.

Moon's name surprised me because his production dropped the next season, then fell off a cliff. (He was a 27-year old rookie, which may explain why -- basically his 1st year was the year when players typically peak.) That season, the two were comparable in efficiency with Turkoglu being fairly high usage (24% of his team's possessions while on the floor) and Moon being low usage (13.4%). Turkoglu was by far the better assist man, but Moon had significant advantages in rebounding, steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls.

I just took a look at All-Star voting for that season, and Turkoglu did finish 7th with 301,038 votes. Not sure we want to go too far down that rabbit hole -- in 5th place with 450,515 votes: Yi Jianlian. The East that year had Lebron and Pierce as its SFs. The other forwards were Bosh, Rasheed Wallace and Jamison -- all of whom I had rated higher than Turkoglu that season.

D) I'm very certain if you asked Magic fans, they would not call his play (when he was healthy) as average -- especially after leading them to the finals.

I think "leading them to the Finals" is overstating things a bit. Orlando went to the Finals in 2009 -- and Turkoglu wasn't as good that season as he had been the previous year. He was a contributor, but -- Dwight Howard led the team in playoff scoring (Turkoglu was 3rd in pts per game; 5th in pts per minute). Howard led in rebounding and blocks, naturally.

Turkoglu led with 4.8 assists per game, but that also came with 2.7 turnovers per game. He was 4th in overall possession usage behind Howard, Alston, and Rashard Lewis. He was 6th in offensive efficiency among rotation players behind Howard, Gortat, Pietrus, Redick and Rashard.

[Nivek]

If Nivek meant average "for a starter," then that's fine. And if he meant "better than average as a starter, with one or two years much better," then again that's fine. I just think grading a guy's career while adding in years he was injured is bunk.

Those years when a guy plays injured count too. Injuries are part of the game, and most players deal with them from time to time. If he plays, then what he does on the floor counts, and should be included in a player's overall ranking. That said, there's also value in looking at a player's peak level or their best period of years.

Along the same lines, a player's negatives often get overlooked when they're being discussed/evaluated. I hear folks all the time talking about Generic Player who can do X, Y and Z, which might even be true -- but no mention that the guy shoots a low percentage or that he's a turnover machine or that he doesn't rebound or defend. The negatives count too.

Turkoglu's best year was good, but not outstanding. His "pattern" of performance was less consistent year to year than some other guys. Caron Butler, for example, had 5 consecutive seasons that rated above average. Turkoglu's best stretch was two.

For what it's worth, here's who I get as similars when I run Turkoglu's 2007-08 season through my statistical doppelganger machine:

- Sean Elliott -- 95-96
- Turkoglu himself -- 08-09
- Dunleavy -- 07-08
- Mike James -- 05-06
- Glen Rice -- 95-96
- Caron Butler -- 08-09
- Jamal Mashburn -- 00-01
- Metta World Peace -- 07-08

Good group of players, if you ask me.

[barelyawake]

Alright alright I'll drop it. You win. However, it wasn't me characterizing him as "leading them to the finals," it was a myriad of Magic fans and sportswriters. The reason why is not only because of the key injuries, and because Howard is in no way a leader, but also because of the number of clutch shots he sunk that lead them to where they ended up. He took over games.

And I'll say that while negatives may get overlooked when sportswriters are evaluating players, things like leadership, key baskets, diving to the floor at key moments etc get overlooked only looking back at stats.

In terms of the being snubbed thing, LeBron was voted in as a PF that year I think (too lazy to look). The reasons people thought he got snubbed were, I believe, Caron and perhaps the second string SG. I think I remember at SF it was Pierce and Caron. Obviously, I woulda picked them too. My point was to demonstrate he was almost an All Star. I would disagree on Moon and Iggy considering the leadership Turkeyglue demonstrated that year that affected the win column.

Finally, as I said, phrasing that a player was overall below average brands what he did across an entire career (and that is not the case when a player has highs and lows like Turkeyglue). That is unfair, especially when said player was injured. A player should not have what they accomplished earlier in their career downplayed by toughing out seasons past their prime.

Until next we have this argument again...

[payitforward]

...No, it's just that I can't understand how anyone who saw him year after year could have your view of him. So, I do find it VERY hard to believe that you watched him play. And if you did watch him play, he was a small forward - sometimes shooting guard. He rebounded fine for his position. He wasn't just a scorer in his prime - as everyone except you seems to realize. He was a great passer, a good ball-handler, and could take it to the basket. We all know he's stunk the last few years. You said he's always been a terrible player. If you' actually watched him many years - my apologies - and that would mean you're more than likely a terrible judge of talent.

You can look at my record on players, draft picks, etc. to see whether I'm a terrible judge of talent. Happy to put it up against anyone else's here (but I have no interest in comparisons and certainly not in an argument).

Still, even Homer nods -- and so does PIF. Hence I was wrong.

Hadn't thought about HT in a long time, and I forgot that in the mid-years of the previous decade he played well for a few seasons. Hence, "always has been" was incorrect. What I meant, or at least what I should have meant, is that overall, based on total career, he's been a below average NBA SF.

Apologies.

Sorry for being harsh there. I guess I was reacting to the harshness of your comment to Rico - who responded the way I probably should have. Being wrong there doesn't NECESSARILY mean you don't watch basketball.

I'm wrong a lot, as are most people. In fact, if you can't be wrong you won't often say anything worth caring about whether it's right or wrong. I don't mean only (or even mainly) in re: basketball.

What I do think is that sometimes players are good enough at one aspect of the game that one forgets to notice that they are awful at some other aspect of the game which cancels back some or much of the good effect of their particular skill. I don't mean this especially about Turkoglu, btw, but it does offer a way to see why fans often love a guy who really isn't much help in winning. This is especially true when the skill a guy does display is one you can't help but notice -- scoring is the best example.

[Kanyewest]

I think Hedo may have been an average to below average starting small forward at least when it came down to the postseason in 2008-09. The list of small forwards that made it to the postseason included guys like LeBron, Anthony, Pierce, Iguodala, Artest, Battier, AK47, Deng, Prince, and Ariza.

I think while Hedo played well, a lot of it had to do with Dwight Howard who not only helped spread the floor but also covered up his defensive deficiencies. Pietrus also did a good job defending LeBron James- while Turkoglu did give a solid effort as well. Still, for that season anyways, he was alright as the team's 2nd/3rd best player in the postseason (since Nelson was injured). As a small forward, his shooting was more important to that team than good defense (see Artest, Iguodala, and AK47).

[barelyawake]

Lol again with this below average nonsense. How can the second best player on a finals team be "below average"? I could find a ton of articles like this with the phrase "he lead them to the finals" (but I'm lazy so I just copied the first one):

When the Magic opted to let Turkoglu go as a free agent after the Finals run, Matt Guokas, a former Magic coach and the team's TV color analyst at the time, says, "It was the beginning of the downward trend."
The fact is, Hedo was the second-most important player on the greatest Magic team of all-time. During the Finals run, the offense ran through Hedo. And, to this day, nobody has run the pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard better than Hedo did.

"To be a successful team, the role of the secondary ballhandler/playmaker is so important, especially in fourth quarters," Guokas says. "It was right in Hedo's wheelhouse and he blended in with the other talented players for that great stretch. Initiating offense, running pick and rolls, lobbing to Dwight — he was the ideal man for the job."
Says Stan Van Gundy, the coach of the Magic's greatest team: "There's no way we make a Finals run in 2009 without Hedo Turkoglu. The game I remember above all others was Game 7 (of the Eastern Conference semifinals) in Boston — the only Game 7 at home the Celtics had ever lost in their long history. Hedo was the dominant player in that game."

What Magic fan will ever forget Turk scoring 25 points and dishing out 12 assists as the Magic destroyed the Celtics 101-82. "Hopefully," Van Gundy says, "fans will think back to those times and not the last couple of years."
I believe they will, and I believe Turk will go down as one of the greatest Magic players in history. He not only was instrumental in the team's greatest season, he is top 10 all-time in 12 major statistical categories — third in three-pointers, fifth in scoring, fifth in rebounds, sixth in assists, third in minutes played and sixth in games played.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to miss him when he's gone.

[Nivek]

In terms of the being snubbed thing, LeBron was voted in as a PF that year I think (too lazy to look). The reasons people thought he got snubbed were, I believe, Caron and perhaps the second string SG. I think I remember at SF it was Pierce and Caron. Obviously, I woulda picked them too. My point was to demonstrate he was almost an All Star. I would disagree on Moon and Iggy considering the leadership Turkeyglue demonstrated that year that affected the win column.

For the purposes of All-Star rosters, they don't distinguish between PG/SG or PF/SF. To be an All-Star, any forward needs to be at worst top 6 among ALL forwards in the conference.

[nuposse04]

So no thoughts of going after Ed Davis in the upcoming off-season? I can't be the only one who thinks he'd fit in well. I'm not sure Memphis could afford to retain him.

[barelyawake]

In terms of the being snubbed thing, LeBron was voted in as a PF that year I think (too lazy to look). The reasons people thought he got snubbed were, I believe, Caron and perhaps the second string SG. I think I remember at SF it was Pierce and Caron. Obviously, I woulda picked them too. My point was to demonstrate he was almost an All Star. I would disagree on Moon and Iggy considering the leadership Turkeyglue demonstrated that year that affected the win column.

For the purposes of All-Star rosters, they don't distinguish between PG/SG or PF/SF. To be an All-Star, any forward needs to be at worst top 6 among ALL forwards in the conference.

Right, but a) obviously they aren't going to choose 4 SFs (who can't play PF) or 4 SGs, and b) I believe the complaint was that considering that Hedo was so versatile, he could have been slotted in anywhere. Again, it was never my contention he should have been an all star (merely many considered his non-selection a slight).

PS I love how everyone else who had such strong opinions on this issue suddenly shut-up. And I thought my consession was an end.

[Kanyewest]

Lol again with this below average nonsense. How can the second best player on a finals team be "below average"? I could find a ton of articles like this with the phrase "he lead them to the finals" (but I'm lazy so I just copied the first one):

When the Magic opted to let Turkoglu go as a free agent after the Finals run, Matt Guokas, a former Magic coach and the team's TV color analyst at the time, says, "It was the beginning of the downward trend."
The fact is, Hedo was the second-most important player on the greatest Magic team of all-time. During the Finals run, the offense ran through Hedo. And, to this day, nobody has run the pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard better than Hedo did.

"To be a successful team, the role of the secondary ballhandler/playmaker is so important, especially in fourth quarters," Guokas says. "It was right in Hedo's wheelhouse and he blended in with the other talented players for that great stretch. Initiating offense, running pick and rolls, lobbing to Dwight — he was the ideal man for the job."
Says Stan Van Gundy, the coach of the Magic's greatest team: "There's no way we make a Finals run in 2009 without Hedo Turkoglu. The game I remember above all others was Game 7 (of the Eastern Conference semifinals) in Boston — the only Game 7 at home the Celtics had ever lost in their long history. Hedo was the dominant player in that game."

What Magic fan will ever forget Turk scoring 25 points and dishing out 12 assists as the Magic destroyed the Celtics 101-82. "Hopefully," Van Gundy says, "fans will think back to those times and not the last couple of years."
I believe they will, and I believe Turk will go down as one of the greatest Magic players in history. He not only was instrumental in the team's greatest season, he is top 10 all-time in 12 major statistical categories — third in three-pointers, fifth in scoring, fifth in rebounds, sixth in assists, third in minutes played and sixth in games played.
I don't know about you, but I'm going to miss him when he's gone.

Getting to the finals in the East was decent but not that great. The Celtics were wounded without KG. The supporting cast that surrounded LeBron James was terrible- his 2nd best player on that team IIRC was Delonte West.

Being an average small forward isn't all that bad when you consider guys like LeBron, Pierce, and Anthony. Heck even look at the Houston Rockets twosome of Battier and Artest who took the Lakers to 7 games without T-Mac and for most of the Series without Yao as opposed to the Magic who only took the Lakers to 5 games. Even Utah, the 8th seed in the Western Conference, took the Lakers to 5 games.

Turkoglu being considered average is not an insult- there were simply a lot of good small forwards including Butler, Granger, and Durant that didn't even make the playoffs. IMO, Orlando made the finals because Dwight Howard was one of the few dominant big men and that Orlando was the deepest team in the league even without Jameer Nelson- (Rafer Alston filled in nicely). This became problematic when they faced a deep team like the Lakers and their were deeper teams out West that the Magic didn't face including the Nuggets and Rockets.

BTW, is Turkoglu one of the greatest Magic players of all time? maybe but that speaks to the fact that Orlando isn't exactly the LA Lakers since they have only been around since 1989.

[Nivek]

In terms of the being snubbed thing, LeBron was voted in as a PF that year I think (too lazy to look). The reasons people thought he got snubbed were, I believe, Caron and perhaps the second string SG. I think I remember at SF it was Pierce and Caron. Obviously, I woulda picked them too. My point was to demonstrate he was almost an All Star. I would disagree on Moon and Iggy considering the leadership Turkeyglue demonstrated that year that affected the win column.

For the purposes of All-Star rosters, they don't distinguish between PG/SG or PF/SF. To be an All-Star, any forward needs to be at worst top 6 among ALL forwards in the conference.

Right, but a) obviously they aren't going to choose 4 SFs (who can't play PF) or 4 SGs, and b) I believe the complaint was that considering that Hedo was so versatile, he could have been slotted in anywhere. Again, it was never my contention he should have been an all star (merely many considered his non-selection a slight).

More or less correct, but assuming they split half and half, even in his best season, Turkoglu would have to be considered borderline at best. The top Eastern Conference SFs that season were Lebron and Pierce, followed by Caron. I can understand choosing Turkoglu over Iguodala, Moon or Prince. Caron was really the SF who got slighted that year.

At PF, it's still tough to squeeze in Turkoglu. KG and Bosh are the clear front-runners. Third at PF was probably Jamison, who was having probably the best season of his career and who made the team. I'm not counting Rasheed Wallace as a PF -- he was more of a center that season. If you consider him a PF, he was having a better year than Turkoglu too.

Last spot where Turkoglu could arguably have been placed is guard. That year, the guards were Kidd, Wade, Ray Allen, Billups, Richard Hamilton and Joe Johnson. Now we're getting somewhere. The first 5 belonged, but Turkoglu had a better year than Joe Johnson (wanna talk about overrated). But, dropping Johnson from the team would bring a guy like Caron back into play...

Okay, this conversation is way more interesting to me than it should be.

[barelyawake]

My complaint was the phrasing. When you say a guy was "average or better," when he was arguably an All Star, the word average has no place (and the or better needs a modifier).

And not a single sportswriter or Magic fan would have considered Turkeyglue's finals run average (much less below average). The guy took over a team without a single leader and willed them to the finals (and ensured they didn't get swept by the Lakers). The entire offense ran through him. Yes, Dwight was dominant. But, has he been as successful post-Hedo? Why? Because they ran the pick and roll so well together.

Hedo came to the NBA late from overseas (where he was dominant in his league), suffered a couple injures through his career, and then ended his career severely limited for years. But, when healthy, the guy wasn't average. He was an elite glue guy -- the type who helps teams win and doesn't put up empty stats (and goes to the floor for loose balls or hits the clutch shot under pressure). That's all. I've said all I want here without repeating or posting other articles from people who share my opinion.

[Nivek]

I liked Turkoglu a lot when he was at his best. Enjoyed watching him play. Would've been happy with him coming to the Wizards, depending on the salary and the acquisition cost. But, the moment you start using the word "elite" when talking about Turkoglu, you're losing me. He had one season where he was on the cusp of maybe being an All-Star. He had another handful of seasons that were good, but not in sniffing distance of All-Star. At his best, he was a good player.

Talking about what sportswriters or Magic fans might've said is really unpersuasive. And the stuff about him "willing" the Magic to the Finals and whatnot is exaggerated. I lived through the same time period. I read the same stuff and watched the same games. I don't remember it the way you do.

By the way, Turkolgu didn't "come late" to the NBA -- he was a 21-year old rookie.

And yeah, I do think it's about time to talk about something else.

[barelyawake]

Lol, obviously, we don't like each others' word selections. I never said elite player. I said, elite glue guy. Considering there aren't many players I would consider "glue guys," yes he was elite at that (when not injured). And it's not just fans, it's coaches. And not just coaches for the Magic, but coaches around the league who echo what I said.

Btw, yes he did come late. Had he been in the US and putting up the numbers he was overseas, he would have had three eligible years to play in the NBA.

Dude, I'm trying to deflate this and obviously I'm joking with the "above average" stuff in other threads.

[Kanyewest]

My complaint was the phrasing. When you say a guy was "average or better," when he was arguably an All Star, the word average has no place (and the or better needs a modifier).

And not a single sportswriter or Magic fan would have considered Turkeyglue's finals run average (much less below average). The guy took over a team without a single leader and willed them to the finals (and ensured they didn't get swept by the Lakers). The entire offense ran through him. Yes, Dwight was dominant. But, has he been as successful post-Hedo? Why? Because they ran the pick and roll so well together.

Hedo came to the NBA late from overseas (where he was dominant in his league), suffered a couple injures through his career, and then ended his career severely limited for years. But, when healthy, the guy wasn't average. He was an elite glue guy -- the type who helps teams win and doesn't put up empty stats (and goes to the floor for loose balls or hits the clutch shot under pressure). That's all. I've said all I want here without repeating or posting other articles from people who share my opinion.

I guess this just come to semantics. Average to me isn't bad- to me it's rather quite good. You can certainly make a case that Turkoglu could be in the top 10 small forward in 2009- given how he played in the postseason. Guys like Deng, Prince, Jefferson, Gerrald Wallace, Ak47, Marion, and Rudy Gay are among those I would consider "average"- but still pretty good. And Turkoglu was considered better than most of those guys. Although maybe it wasn't best to reward Hedo with that humongous contract - Ariza also got overpaid that offseason because of his playoff performance.

But yeah, perhaps you are right that I'm taking away from Turkoglu's play during that postseason where he was clutch. His defense may not be as good as some of those mentioned above but his style of play was often best suited than the guys I listed above for Orlando. Turkoglu certainly took his 3 point shooting to another level during the postseason and stepped up his intensity on defense- giving LeBron and Kobe trouble at times when he guarded them.

On a random note, looking back, Orlando had awesome centers, not only with Howard but also with Gortat. Gortat was probably better then the other centers that Orlando faced in the Eastern Conference (Big Z, Perkins, an Old Rasheed Wallace).