So, about JJ

Parataxis · Post #1 » by **Parataxis** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:54 pm

The season is over and, under the new CBA rules, we have effectively one FA who is even in the conversation about compensatory picks. Josh Johnson.

Obviously, he's not worth the $14mil on his play from this year, but for a one year contract, it's something worth considering (even if the answer is no.)

On the plus side, he could have a bounce-back year and return to form, especially realising that his future profitability is on the line. It would also give us the option to get compensation for him next year. On the down side, it could be a one year boondoggle.

Best case scenario if we offer, he refuses the offer, nobody is willing to sign him for money and a draft pick, and we then offer him another contract for a small fraction. Worst case if we don't, he walks away for nothing.

Pretty small change either way.

Thoughts?

Randle McMurphy · Post #2 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:07 pm

He wouldn't refuse. Also the Jays can't afford to put $14M into a guy that can't stay on the field. It's not going to happen.

Michael Bradley · Post #3 » by **Michael Bradley** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:10 pm

Having a bad season plus being injured pretty much eliminated any chance of Johnson getting the qualifying offer. I'd like for the Jays to bring him back on a lower salary deal if possible, but Johnson has no incentive to do that, and if he is smart, he'll go to the NL on a one year deal and try to recoup his value for next winter.

akakalakin · Post #4 » by **akakalakin** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:17 pm

really? how desperate are we to offer JJ a contract

Chevy Chase · Post #5 » by **Chevy Chase** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 12:03 am

Do not touch. He has completely lost it. There is zero possibility of a comeback for him. He will not be in the majors next year.

Santoki · Post #6 » by **Santoki** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 3:08 am

Chevy Chase wrote:Do not touch. He has completely lost it. There is zero possibility of a comeback for him. He will not be in the majors next year.

He'll definitely be in the majors next year. Someone will sign him to a 1-year deal somewhere between $4-$8 million if I had to guess.

Post #7 » by **Schad** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 3:21 am

Santoki wrote:
Chevy Chase wrote:Do not touch. He has completely lost it. There is zero possibility of a comeback for him. He will not be in the majors next year.

He'll definitely be in the majors next year. Someone will sign him to a 1-year deal somewhere between $4-$8 million if I had to guess.

I'd guess somewhere in the middle of that range, with a pile of incentives and a no/small buyout option in the low eight figures.

Post #8 » by **Geddy** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 5:37 am

With the way ex Jays pitchers turn out i wouldn't be surprised if he regains his form after he departs the team.

akakalakin · Post #9 » by **akakalakin** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 12:18 pm

Chevy Chase wrote:Do not touch. He has completely lost it. There is zero possibility of a comeback for him. He will not be in the majors next year.

Agree the only question is who will be worse between him and Ricky. Stay away Alex, but he won't - just another reason why he should be fired now.

satyr9 · Post #10 » by **satyr9** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 1:30 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
Santoki wrote:
Chevy Chase wrote:Do not touch. He has completely lost it. There is zero possibility of a comeback for him. He will not be in the majors next year.

He'll definitely be in the majors next year. Someone will sign him to a 1-year deal somewhere between $4-$8 million if I had to guess.

I'd guess somewhere in the middle of that range, with a pile of incentives and a no/small buyout option in the low eight figures.

I can see him getting something closer to Haren. Not saying I would give it to him, but I try to never underestimate how much money GMs will sink into blackholes.

Kurtz · Post #11 » by **Kurtz** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 1:32 pm

Geddy wrote:With the way ex Jays pitchers turn out i wouldn't be surprised if he regains his form after he departs the team.

That's probably a solid bet...but not quite solid enough to justify another $15 mil.

mikero · Post #12 » by **mikero** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 3:55 pm

If his medicals are ok, I think there's a good chance he's offered arbitration. Where else are the Jays going to get pitching? They're going to have to overpay one way or another. Better to do it on a one year deal.

Either way, JJ is getting more than $6 million. SP is at a premium. Just look at last year. Santana and Haren both got 13-14 million after ugly seasons. Even guys like Correai and Villanueva got $5+ million.

Graham's Cracker · Post #13 » by **Graham's Cracker** » Tue Oct 1, 2013 5:14 pm

Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR. Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year. No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament. Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason. His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue. He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer. Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos. A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/josh-johnson-has-elbow-surgery-expected-to-be-ready-for-spring-training.html

Wo1verine · Post #14 » by **Wo1verine** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 6:13 am

The FA SP's are pretty weak this year! I think i'd take my chance's on Johnson than say spend long-term on a Garza type pitcher.

dkmo · Post #15 » by **dkmo** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 6:14 am

It's a gamble... but unless the team's willing to deal away the farm or spend big, all the other options are gambles, too.

freakoutguy · Post #16 » by **freakoutguy** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 11:04 am

Can somebody explain to me how the whole QO thing works? Do the Jays HAVE to offer him $14-15M for one year? His agent Sosnick says that he would still consider signing with the Jays, if they did not offer him a QO? So,essentially, Jays do not offer him a QO, but still offer him a reduced one year deal? What about the compensatory draft pick in this case? I am also reading about 2-3 year deals? So what happens to the QO in that case?

Much appreciated.

Post #17 » by **Schad** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 11:57 am

freakoutguy wrote:Can somebody explain to me how the whole QO thing works? Do the Jays HAVE to offer him $14-15M for one year? His agent Sosnick says that he would still consider signing with the Jays, if they did not offer him a QO? So,essentially, Jays do not offer him a QO, but still offer him a reduced one year deal? What about the compensatory draft pick in this case? I am also reading about 2-3 year deals? So what happens to the QO in that case?

Much appreciated.

There are two options, essentially:

- Offer him the one year, ~$15m qualifying offer. This would allow us to receive a compensatory pick if he turned down the QO and another team signed him, but it's unlikely to happen. He wouldn't receive that kind of money over one year anywhere, and even if a team wanted to take the plunge they'd be highly unlikely to want to lock him up and hand over a first round pick.

- Do not offer him the QO. From there, it's normal free agency; he can re-sign with us for any dollar figure, or with any other team, but we'll get no compensation. This is almost certainly what will happen.

Santoki · Post #18 » by **Santoki** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 11:59 am

freakoutguy wrote:Can somebody explain to me how the whole QO thing works? Do the Jays HAVE to offer him $14-15M for one year? His agent Sosnick says that he would still consider signing with the Jays, if they did not offer him a QO? So,essentially, Jays do not offer him a QO, but still offer him a reduced one year deal? What about the compensatory draft pick in this case? I am also reading about 2-3 year deals? So what happens to the QO in that case?

Much appreciated.

The Jays can offer the QO which essentially is the average of the top 125 salaries. In this case, that figure is about the $14-$15 million everyone has talked about. They have to offer this 5 days after the WS concludes or Johnson becomes a free agent. If he accepts it, that's it, he's signed for next year. If he declines it, he becomes a free agent. If the team doesn't extend the offer, again he becomes a free agent. Once he becomes a free agent, the team is free to offer him any type of deal after that.

The likely scenario is no QO is offered, but the Jays offer him a 1-year, incentive-laden deal. Johnson will receive some from other teams as well and it'll be up to him to decide where he wants to go. If the Jays do not offer the QO, and Johnson signs elsewhere as a FA, I don't believe they get a draft pick. If they offer him the QO and he declines it to sign elsewhere, they'll be compensated with a draft pick. However, because his value is so low, he'll surely accept the QO. The question becomes, do the Jays want to spend $14 million on Josh Johnson for one year? If they don't, then he most likely won't be back as he can get another competitive offer (relative to what the Jays would likely offer in a FA deal) somewhere outside the AL East. For his career, he's better off leaving this division to try and regain some value before signing a longer-term deal (if he bounces back). Realistically, I don't see him back with the Jays next season because I can't see them offering him the QO with only a month's time to evaluate him (especially after having another surgery).

freakoutguy · Post #19 » by **freakoutguy** » Wed Oct 2, 2013 7:38 pm

Thanks, Schad and Santoki 8-)

flatjacket1 · Post #20 » by **flatjacket1** » Thu Oct 3, 2013 2:02 am

I think it's foolish not to give him a 1 year deal. People forget how dominant he was in 2012 and prior. Getting a guy who has a legitimate shot to post an ERA under 4 and pitch over 150 innings in 2014 is easily worth 6M + incentives.

If he blows again, we end up giving him 6M, if he pitches over 150 innings he gets 8M if he makes AS team he gets 12M. Easy.

The guys been injured all year and somebody will give him a shot. I'd rather it be the Blue Jays.