Build the 2014 Starting Rotation

[youreachiteach]

That's not gonna cut it, Tyrone. They need one more top end guy...they have enough innings eaters--Dickey and Buerle already give you 200+ innings each. Morrow has to be made a "nice if it happens" kind of choice--a number 4 starter tops. If they don't want free agency and they won't go international then yes, all they can do is get some averagish starter and pray for rain....but don't be surprised if the Jays are right back in the same spot again next year.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

That's not gonna cut it, Tyrone. They need one more top end guy...they have enough innings eaters--Dickey and Buerle already give you 200+ innings each. Morrow has to be made a "nice if it happens" kind of choice--a number 4 starter tops. If they don't want free agency and they won't go international then yes, all they can do is get some averagish starter and pray for rain....but don't be surprised if the Jays are right back in the same spot again next year.

I'm not disagreeing that a top-end guy is needed. It's just not going to happen.

Also Morrow is not a number 4 starter tops. He was 13th in fWAR in the AL from 2010-2012. I agree that his health concerns are serious and we shouldn't completely rely on him, but when you use the word "tops" you should actually say his absolutely best case scenario, which is a number 1 starter.

[satyr9]

Well the absolute biggest of big problems for this rotation is actually already fixed IMO, that's not to say there isn't work to be done, but I'll play optimist for now.

What I'm talking about is that when we had injuries there was literally nothing behind them. Rogers was a nice surprise to start, although by his year-end stats you should always be able to find that kind of production from your call-ups. After him, nothing was worse for the starters as a group than having so many Wang, Ortiz, Jenkins, Laffey, etc... guys who couldn't even get you 4 innings without exploding. I have far more confidence in the group of Nolin and Stroman promoted beside Drabek and Hutch (or AAA depth will be added if any of those are dealt this offseason). There's no chance AA will give away his AAA depth this year after what happened. Morrow's durability is easier to manage if there's a chance you actually get a boost from a young guy.

So as long as he doesn't bankrupt AAA to fill the big holes, they're likely in a better position next year. After that, I think we're stuck with Dickey, Buehrle, and Morrow - the latter two being untradeable - so let's reverse engineer a legit starting 5 from there and forget #1 vs. #2 etc...

You need at least 12 WAR, preferably 15 WAR, but from where we are that's just greedy, from your starters. that's 2.5-3 WAR each - aiming for 2.5 for now. Despite Dickey's 2 this year, I'd say he's an average starter for that, although not a surplus ace guy right now. Buehrle is more like a 2 WAR guy and Morrow, suffering a more like 2 month injury and having better depth at AAA this year, his slot can be 2ish as well. Obviously I'm not being clinical or anything about this here.

So you need 3ish WAR in the other two slots to get there. If Happ or Rogers or Romero or Redmond is one guy, then you need like a top 10 guy for the other spot, so whether it's trades or FA with the first three around, those guys aren't gonna cut it.

What makes this task seem almost impossible to me is that it's unlikely there's the budget for two starters in FA and if you want to trade for a legit starter you have to give a legit starting prospect back plus more and pretty much everyone and their grandma is gonna demand Sanchez, so the trade route is going to be very very tough sledding. IMO, for this to get turned around AA is going to have to be good and lucky. He's going to have to guess absolutely right on a FA starter in the Nolasco, Garza, Timmy, etc... class and he's going to have to pick the right back-end guy, whether ours or in trade, who steps it up. I really don't think there's much chance he deals for a Dickey/Johnson guy this offseason 'cause he doesn't have the premium pieces he can afford to deal to get it done.

So I started off this rambling saying I was being optimistic, but I'm not really. Getting this rotation filled up and solid is going to be very complicated this year. If he gets lucky he'll look like a genius, but I'll be shocked if there's a slam dunk move that made us as confident as we were coming out of last offseason.

[dballislife]

throw everything u can at price...then go all in for cano...i know u cant just spend and hope to win but u gotta spend at the right time and this is the right time, we got tons of pieces in place

price
dickey
morrow
buerhle
happ/rogers/redmond/romero/drabek/hutch

reyes
bauts
cano
ee
lind
melky
rasmus
lawrie
any vet C

janssen
santos
cecil
delabar
loup
wagner
mcgowen/rogers

now thats a world series contending team

[Michael Bradley]

At this point, Morrow has to be pencilled in as the #4 or #5 starter due to his injury. Expecting him to be much more than that, while entirely possible if he is healthy, is too big of an assumption prior to the season. Anything he gives the team in 2014 should be icing, and not an expectation. I'd be more comfortable if Morrow was the #5 starter, while Happ and Rogers were the #6 and #7 starters, but expecting AA to get two more starters is probably unreasonable.

[akakalakin]

ya know trading Morrow is not out of the question and probably best

[JN]

If you want to take one more crack at it next season.... why don't the Jays take a chance on a one year deal for Bartolo Colon.

Probably the best value you can potentially get (on a gamble for no return as well) with only a one year commitment.

For those worried about AL East competition, his ERA is about 2.90 in 81 innings against the division the past two years. His road ERA is also better then his home ERA, so his results are not totally driven by playing in a pitcher's park.

[JN]

ya know trading Morrow is not out of the question and probably best

I don't think you are going to get much return for Morrow due to his injury history. You clear budget room, but then you either have to overpay for a free agent, or do another prospect dump which does not seem alluring.

He has an option at the end of 2014... to me you gamble on Morrow... you gamble on Colon with a big one year deal... hope for a reversal of luck in 2014. And if it does not work they are off your books.

The Jays are not in a position to trade again for sure thing pitchers (and even those are not sure things). They will need to win some gambles to have a chance in 2014.

[flatjacket1]

The concept of Morrow being your ace or even pencilled as one of your top 3 starters is a recipe for disaster. At this point the team should be happy just to get 20 starts before he breaks down again. I've never seen a pitcher go down with so many unrelated ailments so often without having a major injury. The guy is made out of paper mache and to think that will change anytime soon is foolish. Anytime I see him pitch I hold my breath and if he gets thru a game where he gets shelled then I fully expect to hear afterwards that he had some tightness here or some soreness there and may miss his next start which ends up him goung on the DL.

Davish, Stasburg, and Josh Johnson - The only pitchers between 2010-2013 to have a higher fWAR with equal or less innings.

Morrow is a top 50 starting pitcher over the last 4 years despite playing only 500 innings. That is outrageous. If he pitched a 200 inning season he'd easily be an ace.

[Santoki]

throw everything u can at price...then go all in for cano...i know u cant just spend and hope to win but u gotta spend at the right time and this is the right time, we got tons of pieces in place

price
dickey
morrow
buerhle
happ/rogers/redmond/romero/drabek/hutch

reyes
bauts
cano
ee
lind
melky
rasmus
lawrie
any vet C

janssen
santos
cecil
delabar
loup
wagner
mcgowen/rogers

now thats a world series contending team

Sorry man, but this is not fantasy baseball or 2K14. The Jays aren't going to get Price or Cano.

[akakalakin]

The concept of Morrow being your ace or even pencilled as one of your top 3 starters is a recipe for disaster. At this point the team should be happy just to get 20 starts before he breaks down again. I've never seen a pitcher go down with so many unrelated ailments so often without having a major injury. The guy is made out of paper mache and to think that will change anytime soon is foolish. Anytime I see him pitch I hold my breath and if he gets thru a game where he gets shelled then I fully expect to hear afterwards that he had some tightness here or some soreness there and may miss his next start which ends up him goung on the DL.

Davish, Stasburg, and Josh Johnson - The only pitchers between 2010-2013 to have a higher fWAR with equal or less innings.

Morrow is a top 50 starting pitcher over the last 4 years despite playing only 500 innings. That is outrageous. If he pitched a 200 inning season he'd easily be an ace.

meaningless Rickey was pretty good 3-4 years ago too

[flatjacket1]

meaningless Rickey was pretty good 3-4 years ago too

If you mean over the most recent 4 years, then no, he was not good.

If you mean over a four year stretch, then yes, draft Mike Trouts all day and trade for other teams utility players and wait for them to hit 54 bombs.

[Kid Canada]

Dickey, Morrow, Buerhle, Happ, Hutchinson. Last place once again...

[Wo1verine]

Dickey, Morrow, Buerhle, Happ, Hutchinson. Last place once again...

Yeah need at the very least a #2 , and hope Morrow can stay healthy.

No need for anymore middling SP's obviously.

[dballislife]

i would look at all these guys,

tanaka
jimenez
lincecum
garza
hudson
even jj back

wow the starting arms are slim pickings this winter, jj might be a top 5-8 arm still

[LBJSeizedMyID]

FA market is pretty weak and don't know if the Jays can sell Linecum on a guaranteed rotation spot with perhaps less money. Garza would be nice as well. Otherwise, perhaps the Jays can try to work out a trade for an arm - someone like Lance Lynn perhaps.

[dballislife]

dish out for tanaka and jimenez and play ball

dickey
jimenez
buerhle
morrow
tanaka

happ
rogers
redmond
hutch
drabek

got a nice mix of elite stuff and work horses, and solid depth

[dagger]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 5m
Toronto is thinking about turning Jeremy Jeffress back into a starter. Pitched well as RP in September. Hasn't started since 2011 in minors.

[satyr9]

Wow, people got back on the Jimenez train pretty quick. I would not want to throw big money at Ubaldo. I'd take Garza over Jimenez, although I'm not in love with him either.

More than anything, I just expect the price to be **** stupid. With so few options, these guys are looking for monster deals. I think the only viable option is to sit out the beginning and hope there's a guy like EJax or Lohse without a long-term suitor that you can steal for a reasonable 1 year deal going into camp. With so few options, that's less likely than past years, but if guys like Santana and Nolasco are looking at 15-20m per over 5 years, then I don't want that market.

[Wo1verine]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 5m
Toronto is thinking about turning Jeremy Jeffress back into a starter. Pitched well as RP in September. Hasn't started since 2011 in minors.

AA doesn't think he can acquire a new starter this off season.