Poll: We switch to a 3-4 defense next year

Post #1 » by **emperorjones** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 8:48 pm

The Bears will be $32 million under the cap at the end of the season and over $40 million if they release Peppers (even though his cap hit dead money wise will be huge) and $50 million if we do not offer Melton a contract.

A BIG chunk of that cash goes to Cutler. A bit more to LG Slauson. That's it on offense though.

On defense, we resign Wright and likely resign Tillman and Jennings if they finish the season strong. After that its rebuilding the D-Line. Here's where I've switched in my thinking. Looking at the free agents brought in last year and the coaching (as well as our GM's history with KC).

We are switching. Look at the defensive UFA free agents for next year:

DT - Henry Melton - $8.454M
CB - Charles Tillman - $7.95M
CB - Tim Jennings - $4.25M
LB - D.J. Williams - $900K
LB - James Anderson - $950K
S - Major Wright - $1.323M
DE - Corey Wootton - $1.323M

The first key is in the LBs. LB Williams, & LB Anderson are older and FA. Briggs is old and on his last year as well. Shea is gifted but proven ineffective as a DE. Bostic is waiting in the wings.

The Second key is in the D line. Melton is an UFA coming off knee surgery. You can't give him the $ he'll want. Peppers will be 34 and is finally showing diminished skills. Shea is not a hand on the ground DE - just too small.
So we actually do not have the pieces for 2014 to play a 4-3.

I think we will resign one of Anderson or Williams.
Not offer Melton a contract
Release Julius Peppers
Resign Corey Wooten
Move Shea to OLB
Start Bostic with Briggs

So I think we put big money into the defensive line in the offseason with a free agent signing or 2.

DL: Wooten, Paea, Draft Pick/FA
LBs: OLB McClellin, LB Briggs, LB Bostic, OLB Draft Pick/FA
CBs: - Tillman, Jennings
Safeties: - Wright, Conte

heir_jordan22 · Post #2 » by **heir_jordan22** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 10:38 pm

I think we could actually sign Melton at a bargain price and play him at DE. Last starting LB would be hopefully Anderson. Both could be on two year deals. I think we could defonitely be switching to 3-4 soon.

heir_jordan22 · Post #3 » by **heir_jordan22** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 10:41 pm

With the amount of money we have I think we could even keep Peppers (unless he cintinues to be ineefective). We really have the personnel to go 3-4 right now. It is just a matter of switching McClellin to OLB.

luss54321 · Post #4 » by **luss54321** » Sun Oct 6, 2013 11:56 pm

Can the Bears cut Julius Peppers at the end of the season? He's on pace for 3 or 4 sacks this year, you can't pay a player 18 millions dollar for that type of production

patryk7754 · Post #5 » by **patryk7754** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 12:09 am

Are there any good FAs to add to the line next year though?. I say we should try it this season and sign Seymour. We have the players.

Post #6 » by **fleet** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 12:35 am

from what somebody on the Score said maybe it was Pompei or somebody, Bostic is not a 3-4 type of guy. Not a deal breaker of course, but a concern. I don't even know what that actually means. But the Bears are drafting a DT next year. Might as well be a 3/4 nose tackle in the 1st round. Get some use out of Shea who as Biggie says.. ineffective

bearadonisdna · Post #7 » by **bearadonisdna** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 3:37 am

Hopefully we get a gm that knows about talent evaluation to spend that cap room. WTF. Our defense is in shambles . We are bottom five in points allowed and every fn week i hear excuse for their asses , oh the offense turned it over here and there. what was the excuse vs the steelers? They had a huge cushion and almost gave it all up. Every week other than that the offense has played from behind every game.

blumeany · Post #8 » by **blumeany** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 4:42 pm

A 3-4 isn't some magical formula. Some 3-4's suck, some are good. Some 4-3's suck, some are good. It has to do with personnel - you've either got the talent, or you don't. The Bears are comprised of a few veteran guys who were really good for the past few years, some journeymen, some rookies, and some 'meh' guys. Who are your real keepers on this defense?

Tillman? Not for long. Old and contract year.
Jennings? Not too bad as a #2 corner, but undersized.
Briggs? Still very good as an outside backer vs. the run, but otherwise not athletic enough to be inside. Also getting long in the tooth.
Peppers? Getting old, not as dominant as he once was and DEFINITELY not worth the money.
Wooten? Contract year, and hasn't show the promise that he's shown in pre-season/practice.
Melton? Free agent who was underperforming and now coming of an ACL
Paea? Good effort guy, but better at NT
McClellin? So not a DE in the NFL.
Wright? meh - and mistake prone.
Conte? meh - and mistake prone.
Anderson/Williams? - Anderson looks good, Williams looks ok, both on one year deals.
Rookies? - Well, Bostic shows promise but has a history of bad decision making on the field that he has to outgrow. The other guys are 'maybe''s.

So, there's a TON of rebuilding you need to do here.

Jennings, Briggs, Peppers, McClellin, Wright, Conte, Bostic, and the other rookies are locks to be back, if you want them. Everyone else is older or in a contract year. Don't think anyone in that list would look good in a 3-4 outisde of McClellin.

But again, the scheme means nothing if you don't have the athletes to perform in it.

blumeany · Post #9 » by **blumeany** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 4:52 pm

I think it's also easier to rebuild a 4-3 than a 3-4. Whenever I've heard experts talking about the Bears coverting, they always talk about how important the linemen are in a 3-4, and how you need a certain type - usually big guys, which we don't have.

Post #10 » by **fleet** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 5:02 pm

From a selfish POV I've never been a fan of these smallish type DTs the Bears always have loved to hire for their 4/3. They don't seem to last very long anyway.

IMO the 3/4 is the only way to salvage Shea McClellin from approaching bust, and getting some appropriate use out of him. With the switch right there you almost add a player who isn't doing much otherwise. All things being equal that would be one practical reason to go that way. Then again maybe he just aint that good. The Bears will draft heavily on defense next season. As I said, I'm thinking a bigger more traditional nose tackle in the first round.

bearadonisdna · Post #11 » by **bearadonisdna** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 9:21 pm

We are short on DTs now and we have mlb with more upside than our starting mlb so i think we could do it as soon as this year.

Paea strong enough to be a NT.
Pepper not an ideal DE in 3-4 but as much as we used him inside it will have to work. Wooton, pretty ideal 3-4 DE.
And then u got ur lBers. I ve been a staunch 4-3 supporter but im a winning supporter first willing to adjust for the sake of putting the best team on the field.

bearadonisdna · Post #12 » by **bearadonisdna** » Mon Oct 7, 2013 10:28 pm

fleet wrote:From a selfish POV I've never been a fan of these smallish type DTs the Bears always have loved to hire for their 4/3. They don't seem to last very long anyway.

IMO the 3/4 is the only way to salvage Shea McClellin from approaching bust, and getting some appropriate use out of him. With the switch right there you almost add a player who isn't doing much otherwise. All things being equal that would be one practical reason to go that way. Then again maybe he just aint that good. The Bears will draft heavily on defense next season. As I said, I'm thinking a bigger more traditional nose tackle in the first round.

How scary is that. Emery drafting defense.

bearadonisdna · Post #13 » by **bearadonisdna** » Tue Oct 8, 2013 6:36 am

If im not mistaken i actually saw a play vs the lions where mclellin rushed off the right side , standing up.

BullHeaded · Post #14 » by **BullHeaded** » Tue Oct 8, 2013 5:02 pm

fleet wrote:From a selfish POV I've never been a fan of these smallish type DTs the Bears always have loved to hire for their 4/3. They don't seem to last very long anyway.

IMO the 3/4 is the only way to salvage Shea McClellin from approaching bust, and getting some appropriate use out of him. With the switch right there you almost add a player who isn't doing much otherwise. All things being equal that would be one practical reason to go that way. Then again maybe he just aint that good. The Bears will draft heavily on defense next season. As I said, I'm thinking a bigger more traditional nose tackle in the first round.

I don't think its wise to switch your entire defense to salvage one player. If we had 4 or 5 players with star potential in a 3-4 defense, that would be another story. But I don't think that's the case with the Bears.

We need to reverse engineer this decision. Look at the offenses in the division and the offenses in the NFC that we would need to solve for. What defensive scheme is most likely going to keep them under 20 points per game? Here are the biggest three needs in my opinion:
1. Pass rush
2. QB containment (to keep the Kaepernick's, Russel Wilson's and RGIII's from running on you)
3. A great nickel coverage package

I would find the DC with the best track record of success in these three areas and whatever his favored allignment is, go with it! If it happens to be a 3-4, you will have a completely different shopping list in the draft and FA than if it is a 4-3. But I wouldn't choose the allignment just because we want to cling on to Shea McClellin. I'd worry more about the Packers and Lions offenses when making this decision than trying to find a roster fit for Shea McClellin.

bearadonisdna · Post #15 » by **bearadonisdna** » Wed Oct 9, 2013 5:05 am

BullHeaded wrote:
fleet wrote:From a selfish POV I've never been a fan of these smallish type DTs the Bears always have loved to hire for their 4/3. They don't seem to last very long anyway.

IMO the 3/4 is the only way to salvage Shea McClellin from approaching bust, and getting some appropriate use out of him. With the switch right there you almost add a player who isn't doing much otherwise. All things being equal that would be one practical reason to go that way. Then again maybe he just aint that good. The Bears will draft heavily on defense next season. As I said, I'm thinking a bigger more traditional nose tackle in the first round.

I don't think its wise to switch your entire defense to salvage one player. If we had 4 or 5 players with star potential in a 3-4 defense, that would be another story. But I don't think that's the case with the Bears.

We need to reverse engineer this decision. Look at the offenses in the division and the offenses in the NFC that we would need to solve for. What defensive scheme is most likely going to keep them under 20 points per game? Here are the biggest three needs in my opinion:
1. Pass rush
2. QB containment (to keep the Kaepernick's, Russel Wilson's and RGIII's from running on you)
3. A great nickel coverage package

I would find the DC with the best track record of success in these three areas and whatever his favored allignment is, go with it! If it happens to be a 3-4, you will have a completely different shopping list in the draft and FA than if it is a 4-3. But I wouldn't choose the allignment just because we want to cling on to Shea McClellin. I'd worry more about the Packers and Lions offenses when making this decision than trying to find a roster fit for Shea McClellin.

+1. but it wouldnt be unwise to at least contemplate switching if u loss one player the stature of a Melton.

blumeany · Post #16 » by **blumeany** » Wed Oct 9, 2013 2:52 pm

Bears need to be ultra-creative on defense. Before the injuries, they weren't getting it done with the front four. It's unlikely that a patchwork line is going to do much better. I think they just need to be creative and do some trickeration to fool the offense. I would include exotic blitzing, overloading, jumping into a 3-4 on occassion with McClellin dropping back at the last second and maybe a linebacker going in to fill his gap. Things like that.

The Giants are a great team to try this sort of stuff out on as well.

Cliff Levingston · Post #17 » by **Cliff Levingston** » Wed Oct 9, 2013 6:57 pm

One thing that hasn't been mentioned. If we go 3-4, we probably need a new DC. Mel Tucker has done some 3-4 stuff but it's not his bread and butter. We'd do well to bring someone in who knows it inside and out.

Second, it would depend largely on who or who we don't keep. Tillman is great for us in this defense because he's a good zone guy who flows to the football and forces fumbles. If we're asking him to be more of a man-to-man, bump and run type of guy, he probably loses some effectiveness. Same for Jennings. Lastly, Lovie's defense is all Briggs has really ever played in in the NFL: would he be a smart keep at a high price tag considering his rising age and declining ability when he'd have to learn something new? We'd probably re-sign DJ Williams and team him up with Bostic in the middle.

Wootton could be a DE. So could Melton and maybe Paea. Peppers would likely be gone considering his age and price tag. Shea obviously moves to OLB. We'd need another OLB and some 350 lb monster to man the NT spot. If we're letting Briggs and Peppers walk, perhaps along with Tillman and/or Jennings, then obviously that frees up a lot of cash to sign some stop-gaps at NT, OLB and CB. But, are you really better than before in such an instance?

At the end of the day, it all boils down to Angelo's failure to stock the defense with young, talented guys. 3-4 isn't a magic bullet that'll make up for that. It'll take numerous successful drafts from Emery to stock the defense full of young guys who can play. But if anything, this next offseason with so many vets up for contracts would be the time to make the decision: 3-4 or 4-3 going forward?

Brick Tamland · Post #18 » by **Brick Tamland** » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:43 pm

if they're not gonna switch to a 3-4, why not copy new england and run 4-3 hybrid. they have a perfect personal to run that defense, shea is that hybrid/joker DE they need to run a 4-3 hybrid. when they ran that defense couple of weeks ago, shea was very productive standing up. i think this is a perfect compromise because they dont have a gorilla nose tackle for a 3-4, but they do have the personal for a 4-3 hybrid.

ChicagoStrong · Post #19 » by **ChicagoStrong** » Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:05 pm

The switch isn't coming.

BullHeaded · Post #20 » by **BullHeaded** » Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:05 pm

I think I'm turning. I've been hesitant about the 3-4 being the end all, and it would require some new personnel... but f-it.

To me, the 3-4 is really a 4-3 but you don't know which LB is going to be the quasi-lineman on a given play. So it is all about versatility and bringing uncertainty to the offense. If we can draft a massive NT, I think we have most of the other ingredients player-wise to make this happen. We need someone who could coach it, and I'm not sure if Hoke (one of the best DB coaches in the league and one of our best assistant coaching assets IMHO) and the coverages he's used to coaching are compatible with it... but I would be at peace with this scheme move.

If we did, I think the biggest things on the wish list would be:

1. The right DC for this.
2. A linebacker whisperer. A LB coach who can do with LBs in the 3-4 scheme what Marinelli could do with cover-2 DLinemen, Hoke could do with DBs and Kromer could do with OLinemen. If you can bring in that assistant coach that could elevate guys like Cornelius Washington, Khasim Greene and Shea McClellin.
3. A big, blocker eating NT.

Do you think we switch to a 3-4 defense next year.