Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[Illuminaire]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

[nate33]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

Nene is pretty much the only guy that can make up for Vesely's inadequacies. The good thing about Nene is that he can do the work of a center on defense, and the work of a power forward on offense (allowing Vesely to do the work of a PF on defense and the work of a center on offense). If Vesely must play, then I agree that it makes the most sense to have him play alongside Nene (and Wall).

I don't expect Vesely to play many minutes though. I can see him getting the first 6 minutes of each half; Booker coming in off the bench quickly to replace him for a relatively long stint, with Seraphin joining Booker at center; and then Randy going with Nene and Harrington in crunch time rather than risk putting Vesely back on the floor. So it'll look like this:

Start: Vesely/Nene
6 minutes in: Booker/Nene
9 minutes in: Booker/Seraphin
18 minutes in: Harrington/Nene

Repeat in second half. Ariza can replace any of our PF's at any time if match-ups let us get away with smallball.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, Vesely should be on the floor with Nene and Wall. He might be a net positive that way, strangely enough.

[deneem4]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

[hands11]

Hmm. I like the idea of Vesely next to Nene. I think they complement themselves and the team's other pieces better fairly well. Caveat: Only if Vesely plays with energy and decisiveness. Also, they'll still need to close games with someone else, because there's no way you can leave in a dude shooting sub-40% from the FT line.

Nene is pretty much the only guy that can make up for Vesely's inadequacies. The good thing about Nene is that he can do the work of a center on defense, and the work of a power forward on offense (allowing Vesely to do the work of a PF on defense and the work of a center on offense). If Vesely must play, then I agree that it makes the most sense to have him play alongside Nene (and Wall).

I don't expect Vesely to play many minutes though. I can see him getting the first 6 minutes of each half; Booker coming in off the bench quickly to replace him for a relatively long stint, with Seraphin joining Booker at center; and then Randy going with Nene and Harrington in crunch time rather than risk putting Vesely back on the floor. So it'll look like this:

Start: Vesely/Nene
6 minutes in: Booker/Nene
9 minutes in: Booker/Seraphin
18 minutes in: Harrington/Nene

Repeat in second half. Ariza can replace any of our PF's at any time if match-ups let us get away with smallball.

Still think it going to be AH and Kevin together for the 2nd line up. Not counting Booker in the rotation until I see him healthy for more then a week.

And I think Nene at center on offense is better then Ves so Nene is center on offense and defense with Ves. Let Ves run around the perimeter setting pick and rolling to the basket from Nene passes for dunks.

[hands11]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

Actually, as long as Okafor can return by January and Nene doesn't get hurt in the mean time, Okafor out is going to be a blessing. Its going to give Kevin and Ves and even Booker, if he can stay healthy, a chance to get minutes and prove themselves. If Okafor was there, Randy would probably start Nene and Okafor and the minute for those player would be more limited.

This way, when Okafor returns, the team will just gain that depth and have more options. And they have a vet Okafor heading into the playoffs when they need more toughness.

So yeah, if everything goes right, they could win a lot. But how often does everything go right ?

[deneem4]

Mannnn if okafor was healthy we can have nene off the bench with Harrington and keep production going...but I hope we can keep a consistence starting lineup of

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Vesely
Nene

I think we can win 40 easy...
Now if
john become john rosebrook
And beal plays lik harden
Ariza revisits his laker playoff days
Vesley plays lik hes across the ocean
Nene stays healthy
Webster becomes belineli equivalent with korver efficiency
Seraphin plays exactly how we think he can
We can go 55 +

Actually, as long as Okafor can return by January and Nene doesn't get hurt in the mean time, Okafor out is going to be a blessing. Its going to give Kevin and Ves and even Booker, if he can stay healthy, a chance to get minutes and prove themselves. If Okafor was there, Randy would probably start Nene and Okafor and the minute for those player would be more limited.

This way, when Okafor returns, the team will just gain that depth and have more options. And they have a vet Okafor heading into the playoffs when they need more toughness.

So yeah, if everything goes right, they could win a lot. But how often does everything go right ?

Yea I kno...I actually like the youngers guys playin it definitely can do nothing but up theyre value since they have no value at all...

When okafor comes back I think it jus going to giv nene more rest till playoffs

Im very optimistic about this season, I jus hope we can get healthy and stay healthy

[Dat2U]

BTW, FWIW, I sit next to a person affiliated with the Wiz organization. He said he would be shocked if Okafor makes it back this season.

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

[Upper Decker]

BTW, FWIW, I sit next to a person affiliated with the Wiz organization. He said he would be shocked if Okafor makes it back this season.

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

I listened to the most recent ball hogs wizards podcast and they made it seem like it won't be a full-year type thing, but if it is they're doomed. Wittman will ride Nene to the ground. EG will make a desperate trade and sacrifice real assets or future cap space for a marginal player.

You know what wouldn't surprise me would be a Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis, which in a vacuum isn't totally terrible, and it migth help EG keep his job, but it'd be a franchise destroying trade because the team would be just good enough to not get a high pick and they'd essentially be pissing away their future cap space.

[Dat2U]

Big Baby Davis isn't saving anyone's season tho. My worry is EG giving up a real asset, however I suspect he'll try to make a marginal move such as Big Baby and we'll still end up with as few wins as would of had without him.

I have little faith in EG making a competent deal that will lead to more wins.

Right now, if Okafor is really gone for season... I think 37-38 wins is the absolute best case scenario where Wall breaks out, Beal & Nene all have excellent seasons and Webster/Ariza come close to duplicating what they did last year. If Nene goes down for any significant period of time, you can knock about 10-12 more wins off the best case scenario of 37-38.

[payitforward]

Big Baby Davis isn't saving anyone's season tho. My worry is EG giving up a real asset, however I suspect he'll try to make a marginal move such as Big Baby and we'll still end up with as few wins as would of had without him.

I have little faith in EG making a competent deal that will lead to more wins.

Right now, if Okafor is really gone for season... I think 37-38 wins is the absolute best case scenario where Wall breaks out, Beal & Nene all have excellent seasons and Webster/Ariza come close to duplicating what they did last year. If Nene goes down for any significant period of time, you can knock about 10-12 more wins off the best case scenario of 37-38.

I think that's about right. As to Big Baby, he isn't even a good player, let alone someone who would help us. A trade for him would be one more bad move by a bad GM.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Big Baby Davis isn't saving anyone's season tho. My worry is EG giving up a real asset, however I suspect he'll try to make a marginal move such as Big Baby and we'll still end up with as few wins as would of had without him.

I have little faith in EG making a competent deal that will lead to more wins.

Right now, if Okafor is really gone for season... I think 37-38 wins is the absolute best case scenario where Wall breaks out, Beal & Nene all have excellent seasons and Webster/Ariza come close to duplicating what they did last year. If Nene goes down for any significant period of time, you can knock about 10-12 more wins off the best case scenario of 37-38.

I think that's about right. As to Big Baby, he isn't even a good player, let alone someone who would help us. A trade for him would be one more bad move by a bad GM.

Hate to say it but this is starting to look about right. A 37-45 record is probably about what we're in for. Too many injury concerns already and not enough depth. Okafor, Singleton already out extended time. Porter and Booker not looking dependable. Harrington and Maynor coming back from major injuries. Rest of the bench with Ariza, Seraphin, Vesely, Temple, Rice is not impressive. Chances of Wall and Beal playing all 82 are slim.

[rockymac52]

Just read an interesting article, and it got me thinking... http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... on-defense

Key quote: "Wiens and her team found two teams changed their offensive rebounding philosophies dramatically between 2011-12 and last season: Minnesota and Washington. The Wolves appear to have sent an extra player, on average, to chase offensive boards, while the Wiz focused more on transition defense, Wiens says."

While the addition of Okafor may appear to be the reason for that change, I don't think that's the case, since he essentially replaced McGee, who has had just as good if not slightly better offensive rebound rates in his career. I think the change has more to do with the fact that it was Wittman's first full season as head coach, and he had the opportunity to make a philosophical change in training camp.

In 2011-12, we had the 17th best offensive rebound rate, and were 25th in opposing fast break points. In 2012-13, we sent less players to the hoop for offensive rebounds, getting an extra player back in transition instead, and we ended up having the 25th best offensive rebound rate, and were 5th in opposing fast break points. The article I linked to is focused on whether or not teams actually sacrifice anything of substance in their transition defense when they go for more offensive rebounds, and vice versa. I'll let you decide how you feel about all of that.

My question/concern, is what do we do about that now that Okafor is out? While Okafor and McGee typically posted ORRs of about 10-12, Nene only averages about 7. That's a significant drop off. So if we're playing without Okafor, and we keep the same offensive rebound/transition D philosophy as last year, then we'll probably get even worse in offensive rebounding, as in, the worst in the league. But, what happens if we alter our strategy, at least for this season or until Okafor is healthy, to sacrifice some transition D in return for a more respectable offensive rebound rate?

[nuposse04]

^They are hardly as strong as OKafor down low but Booker and Jan can do some energy offensive rebound type stuff. If Booker can come back for 75% of the games OKafor misses I won't be as concerned about the defensive rebounding rate. I also think with Booker eventually finding himself in the starting role there might be LESS offensive rebounds to grab ( I admire the work Okafor did on the defense and what not but I think we can make more potent lineups without him offensively).

[montestewart]

From my first prediction:

44-38, same record as the championship season.... A little more bad Wizards luck could bring them down to late lottery territory (36-39 wins).

In my head, that low end was mostly a hedge against serious injury to Okafor or Nene. I didn't really want to think about serious injuries to both of them. But:

Right now, if Okafor is really gone for season... I think 37-38 wins is the absolute best case scenario where Wall breaks out, Beal & Nene all have excellent seasons and Webster/Ariza come close to duplicating what they did last year. If Nene goes down for any significant period of time, you can knock about 10-12 more wins off the best case scenario of 37-38.

That's starting to look like a more plausible scenario. And with it will come:

Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis

or worse

EG giving up a real asset

and I just get this horribly familiar feeling that we'll all be saying

one more bad move by a bad GM

over and over again.

[hands11]

BTW, FWIW, I sit next to a person affiliated with the Wiz organization. He said he would be shocked if Okafor makes it back this season.

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

I listened to the most recent ball hogs wizards podcast and they made it seem like it won't be a full-year type thing, but if it is they're doomed. Wittman will ride Nene to the ground. EG will make a desperate trade and sacrifice real assets or future cap space for a marginal player.

You know what wouldn't surprise me would be a Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis, which in a vacuum isn't totally terrible, and it migth help EG keep his job, but it'd be a franchise destroying trade because the team would be just good enough to not get a high pick and they'd essentially be pissing away their future cap space.

I don't see it. Not BBD. Something doesn't feel right with him as a fit.

Would have been interesting if they could have picked up Kaman. He and RackPoo could do Geico commercials together. And I like Kaman's scrappy game. Dudes only making 3M. Hell, I would add him for that.

[Upper Decker]

I'm probably going to lower my prediction even further now.

I listened to the most recent ball hogs wizards podcast and they made it seem like it won't be a full-year type thing, but if it is they're doomed. Wittman will ride Nene to the ground. EG will make a desperate trade and sacrifice real assets or future cap space for a marginal player.

You know what wouldn't surprise me would be a Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis, which in a vacuum isn't totally terrible, and it migth help EG keep his job, but it'd be a franchise destroying trade because the team would be just good enough to not get a high pick and they'd essentially be pissing away their future cap space.

I don't see it. Not BBD. Something doesn't feel right with him as a fit.

Would have been interesting if they could have picked up Kaman. He and RackPoo could do Geico commercials together. And I like Kaman's scrappy game. Dudes only making 3M. Hell, I would add him for that.

I'm not necessarily saying BBD is the guy, but something in that vein. EG has a slew of expirings that could be dealt for a very marginal big with a longer-term contract. Brandon Bass is another guy that comes to mind, Thad Young sort of fits that bill. Clearly he's a better player than Bass or BBD, but he's not moving the needle by any stretch. Jason Thompson also fits the mold, as does Channing Frye. My point is EG is desperate for a rotation level big and will pay a premium. None of those player are worth expirings and potentially messing up future cap space, but with EG's job on the line why would he care about next years cap space? Why would Ted care about next year either, he's set a pretty firm mandate of "playoff or bust".

[GhostsOfGil]

#20 spot

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gaj8uTXMwyE[/youtube]

Not a great analysis but Bill has been dead on about otto so far.

[hands11]

I listened to the most recent ball hogs wizards podcast and they made it seem like it won't be a full-year type thing, but if it is they're doomed. Wittman will ride Nene to the ground. EG will make a desperate trade and sacrifice real assets or future cap space for a marginal player.

You know what wouldn't surprise me would be a Seraphin + Vesely for Big Baby Davis, which in a vacuum isn't totally terrible, and it migth help EG keep his job, but it'd be a franchise destroying trade because the team would be just good enough to not get a high pick and they'd essentially be pissing away their future cap space.

I don't see it. Not BBD. Something doesn't feel right with him as a fit.

Would have been interesting if they could have picked up Kaman. He and RackPoo could do Geico commercials together. And I like Kaman's scrappy game. Dudes only making 3M. Hell, I would add him for that.

I'm not necessarily saying BBD is the guy, but something in that vein. EG has a slew of expirings that could be dealt for a very marginal big with a longer-term contract. Brandon Bass is another guy that comes to mind, Thad Young sort of fits that bill. Clearly he's a better player than Bass or BBD, but he's not moving the needle by any stretch. Jason Thompson also fits the mold, as does Channing Frye. My point is EG is desperate for a rotation level big and will pay a premium. None of those player are worth expirings and potentially messing up future cap space, but with EG's job on the line why would he care about next years cap space? Why would Ted care about next year either, he's set a pretty firm mandate of "playoff or bust".

Yeah, they need to do something. The roster just isnt balanced. Can't have TA, Web, Otto, Booker and Singleton on the roster and not have at least one big strong center type. Specially when TA is Exp and Booker and Singleton either injured or not productive enough.

At a min, Singleton has to go. We need that roster spot. We talk a lot of how Ves was a bust pick, but it was Singleton taken at 18th that could have been T Harris #19 or Faried #22

[nate33]

#20 spot

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gaj8uTXMwyE[/youtube]

Not a great analysis but Bill has been dead on about otto so far.

Pretty fair analysis. My only beef is that Rose said the last two lottery picks are a big concern because they were Vesely and Porter. First of all, the last two lotto picks were Beal and Porter, not Vesely and Porter. Secondly, it's a bit early to be hating the Porter pick when the guy hasn't played a game yet.

Vesely is a big fat bust, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Wizards are going in the wrong direction and have little long term hope.

I also disagree a bit with their talk of trading Okafor's expiring contract for more help. I just don't think it's very likely that they'll get anybody young enough and good enough to be a long term piece; and if that's the case, they're better off just waiting for the offseason and trying to sign a free agent with cap room.