Mottola, Murphy OUT -- all other coaches safe for now

[Lateral Quicks]

Murphy should have been gone last year. It was a terrible decision to keep a demoted coach around.

The Mottola move is strange. And the fact Walker keeps his job is somewhat baffling. AA has to know his job is on the line this coming year, so let's hope for his sake (and ours) that he did his DD on these moves.

[Michael Bradley]

This is a tough one to digest. While I think a manager's role is vastly overrated as far as team success, I feel the opposite for hitting and pitching coaches. Find a good hitting/pitching coach that preaches the right things, and it's going to help the talent (i.e. Don Baylor fixed Aaron Hill in a week in Arizona). I'm not sure if Mottola was good, or Walker was bad, but based on the results, it's baffling to see Mottola lose his job while Walker keep his. I'm not even sure what criteria they used to determine those decisions. Maybe they felt Murphy and Mottola were a package deal (the whole "two hitting coaches" concept they were talking about). At the end of the day, AA is clearly a GM that undervalues OBP, so if he keeps bringing in players who don't draw walks, then none of the problems will be solved. Bautista always had a good eye and Edwin always had solid BB/K numbers even when he was mediocre, but the real test is to see the development of Lawrie, JPA, Rasmus, etc, and those guys were never big walk guys (Rasmus is probably the best of the three, but his 2013 season seems to be a combination of an unsustainable batting average mixed with getting hurt to avoid his usual second half meltdown).

I think Walker shouldn't get too much of the blame for the pitching, as Morrow/Johnson being hurt kind of threw a monkey wrench into the pitching staff, and the rotation were pretty much all veterans to start the season (and then crap like Wang, Ortiz, etc, in emergencies). At least with Arnsberg there seemed to be a constant churning of young starters that became good under his watch (even though they all got hurt eventually). With Walker, he is dealing with pitchers who have been #1 starters before, or Cy Young winners, or 200 IP guys for over a decade, etc. I'm not sure he could have done anything. The real test for him will be fixing Romero and helping some of the younger pitching coming up.

At the end of the day, just improve the talent on the roster. At that point, hopefully the coaching aspect will be not as important.

[MikeM]

I've heard and read enough from AA to know he doesn't undervalue OBP.

I think when he sees Bonifacio's walk rate cut in half and then immediately go back to normal after he traded him, well... that pisses him off and someone has to pay.

[Michael Bradley]

I've heard and read enough from AA to know he doesn't undervalue OBP.

I think when he sees Bonifacio's walk rate cut in half and then immediately go back to normal after he traded him, well... that pisses him off and someone has to pay.

I'm not sure what AA said, but his actions clearly do not show a man who cares about OBP. Off the top of my head, I can't think of one player he acquired that was known to be a decent OBP prior to the signing/acquisition other than Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Other than those two, it has been John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Jose Molina, Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, Rajai Davis, Jeff Mathis, Ben Francisco, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, Anthony Gose, Melky Cabrera, etc. I guess I will include Rasmus as someone with OBP potential that he acquired, as Rasmus when with St. Louis did seem like he could be a low BA/high walk/high power player, but like most players that have come here post-2010, his walking ability has all but disappeared. I won't include Reyes since he was fairly established as a star prior to arrival and nothing changed.

So maybe it has been a little bit of both. Maybe it was an issue with Murphy/Mottolla in some cases (Rasmus being one, maybe Lawrie, and subsequent talent that have stopped drawing walks the moment they set foot in Toronto), but it's been a pretty high quantity of low-OBP players that have been acquired in the first place, and one of the more talented high OBP players he did acquire was immediately flipped for a reliever.

[MikeM]

I've heard and read enough from AA to know he doesn't undervalue OBP.

I think when he sees Bonifacio's walk rate cut in half and then immediately go back to normal after he traded him, well... that pisses him off and someone has to pay.

I'm not sure what AA said, but his actions clearly do not show a man who cares about OBP. Off the top of my head, I can't think of one player he acquired that was known to be a decent OBP prior to the signing/acquisition other than Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Other than those two, it has been John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Jose Molina, Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, Rajai Davis, Jeff Mathis, Ben Francisco, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, Anthony Gose, Melky Cabrera, etc. I guess I will include Rasmus as someone with OBP potential that he acquired, as Rasmus when with St. Louis did seem like he could be a low BA/high walk/high power player, but like most players that have come here post-2010, his walking ability has all but disappeared. I won't include Reyes since he was fairly established as a star prior to arrival and nothing changed.

So maybe it has been a little bit of both. Maybe it was an issue with Murphy/Mottolla in some cases (Rasmus being one, maybe Lawrie, and subsequent talent that have stopped drawing walks the moment they set foot in Toronto), but it's been a pretty high quantity of low-OBP players that have been acquired in the first place, and one of the more talented high OBP players he did acquire was immediately flipped for a reliever.

Well there's your problem right there.

Also, you put together a list almost completely made of bench players. Finding bench players with high OBP is hard.

If you look at AA's attempts to fill starting spots, most were adequate attempts at OBP. Reyes, Escobar, Johnson, Rasmus, Lawrie and even Melky (had a high OBP prior to coming due mostly to avg but still had high OBP).

Even Bonifacio and Izturis could have been reasonably expected to post .320+ OBPs. Actually, both of them dipped below their past 3 seasons by a considerable margin which tells me that it has even more to do with coaching.

[Michael Bradley]

I've heard and read enough from AA to know he doesn't undervalue OBP.

I think when he sees Bonifacio's walk rate cut in half and then immediately go back to normal after he traded him, well... that pisses him off and someone has to pay.

I'm not sure what AA said, but his actions clearly do not show a man who cares about OBP. Off the top of my head, I can't think of one player he acquired that was known to be a decent OBP prior to the signing/acquisition other than Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Other than those two, it has been John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Jose Molina, Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, Rajai Davis, Jeff Mathis, Ben Francisco, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, Anthony Gose, Melky Cabrera, etc. I guess I will include Rasmus as someone with OBP potential that he acquired, as Rasmus when with St. Louis did seem like he could be a low BA/high walk/high power player, but like most players that have come here post-2010, his walking ability has all but disappeared. I won't include Reyes since he was fairly established as a star prior to arrival and nothing changed.

So maybe it has been a little bit of both. Maybe it was an issue with Murphy/Mottolla in some cases (Rasmus being one, maybe Lawrie, and subsequent talent that have stopped drawing walks the moment they set foot in Toronto), but it's been a pretty high quantity of low-OBP players that have been acquired in the first place, and one of the more talented high OBP players he did acquire was immediately flipped for a reliever.

Well there's your problem right there.

Also, you put together a list almost completely made of bench players. Finding bench players with high OBP is hard.

If you look at AA's attempts to fill starting spots, most were adequate attempts at OBP. Reyes, Escobar, Johnson, Rasmus, Lawrie and even Melky (had a high OBP prior to coming due mostly to avg but still had high OBP).

Even Bonifacio and Izturis could have been reasonably expected to post .320+ OBPs. Actually, both of them dipped below their past 3 seasons by a considerable margin which tells me that it has even more to do with coaching.

Escobar's 2011 BB/PA and BB% (under Murphy) was the 2nd highest of his career. He was still drawing walks with the Jays just as he did with the Braves prior to that. He stopped drawing walks in 2012 but then crept back up to his norm in 2013 with the Rays.

Kelly Johnson's 2011 and 2012 BB/PA and BB% with the Jays (again under Murphy) were higher than his career mark. He went to the Rays in 2013 and proceeded to have the 2nd lowest BB% of his career, and they actually value OBP.

Again, those are the two examples of players AA acquired that had decent OBP skills prior to being acquired. They saw no significant change in that area except Escobar's 2012 (which was terrible all across the board offensively). Where the Jays are seeing bad OBP's are with players they acquired that were already known to be bad OBP players, or prospects that they have promoted that were known to be bad OBP players (JPA). The real issue is whether the younger guys like Rasmus and Lawrie are suffering for it. I think Rasmus is (he is walking less and less every year). It remains to be seen with Lawrie. Then again, Lind saw the highest walk rate of his career this season.

Like I said, I do think coaching (specifically with Murphy) was an issue, but it was probably amplified by the players involved. If AA were targeting high OBP players, this issue wouldn't be as pronounced as it is. And many of the low OBP players I mentioned were signed to start (Buck, Gonzalez, Davis, Melky, Bonifacio/Izturis, etc). Some ended up getting a lot of playing time for other reasons. It is a problem with AA that he needs to work on, otherwise the team will be scapegoating hitting coaches for the rest of his tenure.

[dagger]

From the NP:

After the firing announcement Monday night, Rasmus’s father, Tony, tweeted: “I’m not sure getting rid of Mottola is a positive move.”

[polo007]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/pt ... g-changes/

Alex Anthopoulos addresses the idea that Chad Mottola was Toronto’s “sacrificial lamb,” saying it’s not fair to blame the former hitting coach for the Blue Jays’ struggles at the plate.

15:32 | October 8, 2013

[tecumseh18]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/pts-anthopoulos-talks-coaching-changes/

Alex Anthopoulos addresses the idea that Chad Mottola was Toronto’s “sacrificial lamb,” saying it’s not fair to blame the former hitting coach for the Blue Jays’ struggles at the plate.

15:32 | October 8, 2013

At one point in the interview, AA suggests that this is a home run hitting team, and you don't necessarily want to mess with power hitters too much. This seemingly ignores the fact that our best power hitters - EE and Bau - certainly know how to take a walk. Power and OBP are not mutually exclusive.

AA is doubling down on Gibby, as he makes it clear that the next batting coach will be one of the manager's cronies. This could be a train wreck in the making - which is really saying something after this last season - because in 2008 Gibbons was fired and Gaston (and Tenace) brought in because the Jays were apparently overly-focused on working the count and afraid to swing away.

But it's mainly a question of personnel. I wouldn't say AA doesn't value OBP. AA is nothing if not value-oriented, and the whole point of the Moneyball approach is to exploit the market inefficiencies. Right now, high OBPers are at a premium and so we don't bother to acquire them.

[Santoki]

Everyone here wanted Mottolla out after April, but realized the team would eventually turn it around to normal levels at the plate. Well, they somewhat did. The firing isn't a big surprise and he's not a sacrificial lamb. Is anyone really saying "Oh, well, now we'll be much better next season!". If not, then it's not really a scapegoat situation.

All in all, this move means very little. Change the players and then I'll start caring more.

[James_Raptors]

Rumour this morning is that former MLB baseball player Kevin Seitzer is "close" to taking a job with the Blue Jays as their new hitting coach.

[Wo1verine]

The 51-year-old has spoken about the value of hitting the ball up the middle and to the opposite field, especially when down in the count. Last winter he told FOX Sports Kansas City that he doesn’t favour pull-happy approaches.

“Personally, I think it’s a recipe for disaster,” Seitzer said. “And there aren’t too many hitting coaches who wouldn’t agree. You start committing yourself too early on pitches and a lot of bad things can happen. You’ve got less time to react and you’re going to see a lot of foul balls or weak ground balls.”