Obama, Boehner, the Dems and Est R Strategy vs the TPs. Chess vs Checkers. For those interesting and macro strategy, I hope you enjoy the read. Sorry if its a lot in one post. There was a lot to tie together.
For Obama, he agreed to the CR at Rs requested spending level and the Nov 15 date they wanted. That was his compromise and in typical Obama fashion, he caved early. Thats what he has done in the past and they would expect him to do it again. From there, they expect to get more. This was the set up. This time, he wouldn't give more and he said so from the start, but they didn't believe him. Obama know they weren't going to take his offer, but he made a good faith effort in case Boehner wanted to bring the bill to the floor. But Obama's and the Dems hands are clean and to the TPs, this looked like normal negotiations to them. Obama know they TPs would over play their hand so he set them up to do what they could stop themselves from doing. Kind of like AH pulling the chair on Dray the other night. Obama had fully learned who and how this group operates and this time, he was going to use it against them.
The TPs could have excepted his offer and had a victory. Then they could come back to fight the next fight. But that's not how they roll. They either wanted a chunk of the ACA/Obama or they were happy to shut down the gov. They would be happy with either. Thats the red meat they needed for their TP base. They needed an Obama arm or leg. You could count on the TPs not going along with Obama or Boenher lead.
But would Boehner bring it to the floor anyway and get it passed with Dems ? No, the TP either needed to let Boenher finally lead them or he was going to put on his poker face and let them hang themselves. If there is any salvaging them as part of the R party, they needed to see their way doesn't work. If they still didn't learn after that, he is going to have to cut the rope and they can see if they can survive on their own. And its not only Boenher cutting the rope, its the Koch brothers. I'm sure the Koch will fund them enough to keep them alive for rallies like they were in the old days when they were called the evangelicals, but don't expect them to fund them in a way that promotes them holding as many seats. I don't expect Est R are going to get TP primaried like they were in the past. Actually, for the midterms, I expect the opposite. TPs will get primaried by Est Rs using Koch and Wall Street money combined. They will get ride of the FL-Yoho's types.
For Boehner, he tried to get them to focus on the debt ceiling and behind closed door I expect he tried to get them to except the Obama's/Senate CR offer so the gov wasn't shut down. For the good of the R party, I think Boehner knew a government shut down was a terrible idea. It would drag out, lots of people would be affected, and the whole party would be blamed for it, just like the have been. He know what happened last time. He didn't want that. He would have preferred to try a fight be over the debt ceiling. That way the Rs would have clean hands leading into it and could attempt to get something and if they didn't, they could kick the debt ceiling can down the road a few weeks or months and still have clean hands while they hammer out budget talks and try to get something there. They would have been seen as compromising not once but twice and that would have put the pressure on the Dems. Bascially what they are about to get forced to do now, with the upper hand instead of the damage done to their brand. And in all this they took the focus off the poor ACA roll out. Major failure. This is what you have a Speaker. Its because they can lay out a winning strategy. You can't have a minority freshmen in your caucus leading the train.
The debt ceiling was never an item to hold the country hostage over so Boehner needed to get them past the shut down and past the debt limit in a way that turned the focus to the budget talks ( which he and the dems wanted all along ) but in a way that made it look like they were making progress and winning while letting the TPs learn that their way doesn't work. The party wouldn't have suffered much if at all. That was the smarter plan. But they didn't take Boehner up on his offer. It was time for the TPs to storm the castle and their was no stopping them. At that point, Boehner had to start planning for when he would cut the rope if needed.
Now that the TPs have decided to not listen to Boehner, he has to use this to his advantage so this stuff doesn't happen again. He has to save the R brand and his place in history. This is where Boehner has to pin this on the TPs and give the more rational grown up Rs a chance to stand united so people can see there is a different between the two ( even it its not much, its something ). But he needed to wait for orders from the Koch brothers on when to give up on the TPs, tie the bomb to them, and cut the rope so they can split from the crazy TPs from the party and save the R brand so it can rebuild the trust of America and the world. The Koch brothers have a big decision to make. When do they tell Boehner to cut the rope and kill their newly created monster they can no long control. If they wait to long, the entire party is going down along with the country and world with them. I think the Koch brothers choose their billions in hand over a few billion more they could have had. The Frankenstein monster has to be cut lose, and soon.
If we are honest, they have most likely taken this to fair already. I fully expect this to affect our borrowing costs. World markets are watching this stuff and have already started to chime in. If we get another credit downgrade, that would be another tough blow for the Rs if they are tethered to TPs like they still are today. The world needs to see the TPs cut off if trust is to be restored. I think it to late to salvage them.
It important to understand the different parts of the TP funding and the delay in how decisions from the top ripple through to the soldiers. The Koch brothers can change course on a dime in message and funding. But the TPs already in office, those monsters are already created. They will do as programmed as the just did at the value voters summit. Most those people do actually believe what they believe. So if the Koch's and Boehner are on the same page, he will cut them lose in a floor vote in the next few days where all the Dems and all the non TPs group together. Then the Kochs will remove their funding and they some will get elected out when they are primaried by Koch and Wall Streets grouped funding that supports alternative Rs during the mid terms. This will be used as warning shot to the remaining TPs. You can get vocal, but when we say get in line, you get in line.
Would be interesting, maybe frightening, to know what the some of these TPs in the house and Senates real game is. Do they want to throw the world in a tail spin so the end times begin and Jesus returns ? Michele Bachmann is out there selling the end times message. We know Sarah is that type. You have several extreme political born-agains in the TP group. That is part of their purity test. I think some of them would do anything with in their power to have Jesus return now. They think they are doing God will. This is why Dems support a separation of church and state.
I fear the Koch's and Rs have brought the Branch Davidians to congress. That was reckless.
Keep in mind. All of this pain is self imposed. No one attacked us. No storms whipping our a cities. No nuclear plant melt down. No earth quack. Fixing all of this is as easy as signing a piece of paper and doing congress 101. All they had to do was pass the CR to fund the gov until Nov 15th and raise the debt limit so they could get to budget talks in conference. Exactly were we are likely to end up.
But because of the way the TPs dealt with this, they putt all their chips on the table for one last hand to see if they could continue to bully the president. He know this and pulled the chair on them. It is a suicide pack and I think the Koch brothers set them us to do it once they learned they lost control. The Kochs went for it all and failed, so now they will regroup. Cutting the TPs off isn't something they wanted to do, but they will save what they already have. That's where we are in this poker game. TPs played winner takes all and the Koch brothers are folding to play another hand. On one side you have Obama and the Dems saying, do the congress 101 thing. Sign the CR. Raise the debt limit. Then lets go to budget talks. No more hostage taking. This has nothing to do with us. You got yourselves in this mess, its your job to get yourselves out. Do your job. You want air, stop holding your breath. If the TPs can learn this lesson, like right now, they might be allowed to live. If not, they are done. Koch brother tell Boehner, cut the rope cut. Now.
I expect Monday is the last day they let this play out. Tuesday at the latest, after the market crashes 400-600 pts by then. Vote get brought to the floor and passed with all Dems and all none TPs that are Rs. Thats the rope getting cut.
I expect the debt ceiling to get lifted until say Jan 30th. Nothing more. Then they will get to work on a CR that opens the government until maybe mid Dec ( has to be something different then what they already passed up). That happens over the following week. They go to budget talks after the Rs finally appoint conferencees. Out of the budget talks we get an annual budget, no grand bargain but we get some sequester relief from cuts that kick in Jan 2014, medical equip tax postponed 1 year, a new debt limit that gets us through the mid terms elections. This will also pass with all Dems and Est Rs. Further cutting of the TP rope. They will then get onto immigration reform which might pass before mid terms with both sides trying to claim credit. TPs will spin off and keep the ACA fight going on the sidelines.
Should be interesting to see what the Rs look like going into the mid terms. I think they go into it with new Est Rs running against TPs and running on a balanced budget platform, calling for tax reform. Back to the future. More Paul Ryan stuff only with revenues and defense spending on the table. Dems counter with SS and Medicare reform.
For 2016, Est R will get behind someone like Chris Christy. Combative, tax cuter, but someone who is seen as not bat sht crazy. TPs will run Anne Rand Paul and Cruz. Christy will eat their lunch in the primaries if he enters. The R party will split. TP and evangelicals will not vote for Christy. The divided vote leaves Dems winning in a landslide. Rs lose badly in 2014. If Christy see this, he might not even run.
I made a bunch of predictions like this way before the last election and nailed it pretty good. Lets see how I do this time.
