Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[Nivek]

For the sake of New Orleans and Rivers, he'd better improve. He was the league's least productive player (minimum 500 minutes) last season.

Nivek, I think you know how I feel about stats especially when judging a 20 year old in his first year of pro balI. Fact is, Rivers was starting to play better when he got hurt towards the end of the season.

Yep, and that's fine. I recognize there's potential -- I'm pointing out that there's a TON of work for him to do. The fact that he was 20 years old as a rookie doesn't really mean much. There have been a number of extremely successful 20-year old (or younger) rookies.

I know how you feel about stats, BUT...since 1977-78, I have 153 rookie seasons by a player 20 years old or younger. Rivers last season ranked 150th in that group. Only Donte Greene, Jonathan Bender and Nikoloz Tskitishvili rated worse. At the top of the list in production are guys like Chris Paul, Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Shaq, Magic -- guys who produced at All-NBA level as 20-year old rookies.

Even limiting the discussion to rookies about his age, he was at the bottom in production.

I'd never say there's no hope for a player who's willing to work hard. To that end, here are some 20-year old (or younger) rookies who rated around replacement level or worse as rookies, but turned into useful players:

- Monta Ellis
- Keyon Dooling
- Kendrick Perkins
- Zaza Pachulia
- Jamal Crawford
- Al Harrington
- DeShawn Stevenson
- Sasha Pavlovic

I think the more telling thing about Rivers is what his coach says about him:

"He works his tail off. He's probably one of the most competitive guys in the league. He's hungry. He does some things you like from a young guy. He works hard. He's coachable. He's not afraid. To me, you can't ask for more than that."

At very least, this is how I'd want the coach talking about a young player who needs to improve.

[GhostsOfGil]

I watched the HOU/NO game and Rivers looks horrible. Can't remember when, but sometime around the 3rd or 4th quarter he went into full chuck mode. There were 4 consecutive possessions where he bricked 3 isolation shots. As soon as he got the ball, you just knew he was going to pound it and jack it up. While his stat line was decent, he's very similar to Jordan Crawford, in that he's so damn iso heavy, he takes his own teammates out the game.

IMO, he's the type of guy who generates hype of his style. He had a few pretty crossover step backs that went in but they were bad contested shots. Funny thing is, he has a long way to go just to get to Jordan Crawford level.

[hands11]

So with EG in his final year, who is out there for the Wizards to pick from moving forward.

[montestewart]

So with EG in his final year, who is out there for the Wizards to pick from moving forward.

Dat2U, Nivek, CCJ...

[hands11]

So with EG in his final year, who is out there for the Wizards to pick from moving forward.

Dat2U, Nivek, CCJ...

Sure, it was a general post for anyone to comment but I expect those guy to have a good idea of who is available.

[rockymac52]

If Grunfeld is let go after this season, here's a few names that I think we might be interested in: (in no particular order)

1. Tommy Sheppard

Everything I've read about him over the years is incredibly positive, and he's interviewed for several GM openings across the league in the past few years, so clearly he has a decent reputation league-wide. Even if Sheppard is an incredible basketball mind, if Ted hired him to be our new GM, the fan base would probably be furious, since he's been here almost as long as Ernie (maybe as long?), so it doesn't really feel "new." But at the same time, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards to make a move like this and say Grunfeld wasn't fired, he walked.

2. Troy Weaver

Young Assistant GM for the Thunder. From the DC area and very active in the community, even while he's not living in the area anymore. Has been pegged as a future GM in the making for a while now, and has passed up interviews in the past because he claims he's waiting for the right opportunity. I think that he may have had his eyes set on DC for a while, and he's smart enough to know he's always going to have offers since he's in such a high profile position with a widely successful team. This would be my pick if I were Ted.

I'll add a few other guys later, that's all I got for now.

[verbal8]

If Grunfeld is let go after this season, here's a few names that I think we might be interested in: (in no particular order)

1. Tommy Sheppard

Everything I've read about him over the years is incredibly positive, and he's interviewed for several GM openings across the league in the past few years, so clearly he has a decent reputation league-wide. Even if Sheppard is an incredible basketball mind, if Ted hired him to be our new GM, the fan base would probably be furious, since he's been here almost as long as Ernie (maybe as long?), so it doesn't really feel "new." But at the same time, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards to make a move like this and say Grunfeld wasn't fired, he walked.

I don't think the opinion of the fanbase should drive the selection of the GM. I am sure a lot of fans were on board with Isiah Thomas being hired as a GM.

I do see this as being a possible scenario. Even if Leonsis is somehow satisfied with EG as GM, I can't see any justification for giving him elite compensation. So I could EG leaving rather than taking a pay cut.

[dckingsfan]

How about Glen Grunwald?

[Nivek]

If Grunfeld is let go after this season, here's a few names that I think we might be interested in: (in no particular order)

1. Tommy Sheppard

Everything I've read about him over the years is incredibly positive, and he's interviewed for several GM openings across the league in the past few years, so clearly he has a decent reputation league-wide. Even if Sheppard is an incredible basketball mind, if Ted hired him to be our new GM, the fan base would probably be furious, since he's been here almost as long as Ernie (maybe as long?), so it doesn't really feel "new." But at the same time, I wouldn't put it past the Wizards to make a move like this and say Grunfeld wasn't fired, he walked.

I really like Tommy. Very good guy. Smart, hard-working, at least open to analytics and data-driven approaches. On the other hand, he has been here the entire time Grunfeld's been the GM, which means he has to share some responsibility for the team's failures. Tommy's made his living in the NBA, but he was a college football player. He got his NBA start as a PR guy. He worked his way up, he's well respected, and he knows frigging everybody. The Wizards could do worse.

2. Troy Weaver

Young Assistant GM for the Thunder. From the DC area and very active in the community, even while he's not living in the area anymore. Has been pegged as a future GM in the making for a while now, and has passed up interviews in the past because he claims he's waiting for the right opportunity. I think that he may have had his eyes set on DC for a while, and he's smart enough to know he's always going to have offers since he's in such a high profile position with a widely successful team. This would be my pick if I were Ted.

I'll add a few other guys later, that's all I got for now.

Always liked him for the job.

If I was advising Leonsis, I'd tell him to talk with Dean Oliver -- the Bill James of the NBA. Actually worked as a traditional "sit and watch" scout before he got his Ph.D.

And, whoever the next GM is, I'd make him hire Ben Falk away from Portland, and I'd train him to be the next GM in 5-10 years. He's too young right now to have credibility, but Ben is smart as hell and is getting smarter. He "interned" with me on my defensive tracking project a few year's ago -- he programmed the database and had many good ideas for tracking. He interned with Dean, and then for Portland. The Blazers hired him while he was still an undergrad. I think he's the NEXT Sam Presti.

[rockymac52]

If I was advising Leonsis, I'd tell him to talk with Dean Oliver -- the Bill James of the NBA. Actually worked as a traditional "sit and watch" scout before he got his Ph.D.

And, whoever the next GM is, I'd make him hire Ben Falk away from Portland, and I'd train him to be the next GM in 5-10 years. He's too young right now to have credibility, but Ben is smart as hell and is getting smarter. He "interned" with me on my defensive tracking project a few year's ago -- he programmed the database and had many good ideas for tracking. He interned with Dean, and then for Portland. The Blazers hired him while he was still an undergrad. I think he's the NEXT Sam Presti.

Dean Oliver is the truth - Basketball On Paper is probably my favorite book. I don't know if he's necessarily the GM type though, even if he's smart enough to do a good job. He seems to get a lot of consultant type positions with teams, as opposed to a more day-to-day do-it-all role like an Assistant GM. But he's definitely someone worth talking to and hiring in some capacity.

I've also heard great things about Ben Falk from people around the league. He's garnered quite a bit of respect from the older generation of front office execs, which says a lot considering how they typically are hesitant to accept advanced statistical analytics.

How often do teams promote from within for their GM openings? Off the top of my head, that seems like it's a pretty rare occurrence.

[Nivek]

From my work with Dean, I definitely could see him as a GM. I think he's been pigeon-holed a bit as a "pure" stat guy, which he isn't, actually. He's a basketball junkie who loves to use numbers, but -- like a lot of us stat goobers -- he watches a HUGE amount of actual basketball. I think GMs were hesitant to hire him initially because they were afraid they'd do something he recommended and look foolish to their friends, and then because they feared he'd end up taking their jobs.

Now, I think Dean's approaches may be viewed as "old-fashioned" because he isn't doing much +/- work. The trend now seems to be to hire programmers rather than analysts. The GMs still fancy themselves as the analysts -- even when they have good analysts on staff or in a consultant role.

Having worked with Ben, I can understand why he's earned respect. He's thoughtful, he's earnest, and he doesn't try to be provocative. He just does good work and finds answers to questions.

As far as promoting from within -- I can't think of any examples off the top of my head. Ben would be a great guy to start with. Plus, he's a local kid and he is (was?) a huge Wizards fan.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I hope Troy Weaver becomes the next GM. Weaver can perhaps in the future sign a marquee free agent, like Kevin Durant.

Pairing Weaver with a strong analytics guy would be ideal.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[closg00]

Slow day so I'll do my semi-annual re-post Bucks Mod PaulPressey25's post about Ernie. Ernie's MO has not changed really.

I'm an opinionated Milwaukee fan from a few of the other threads.

I enjoy weighing in on these Grunfeld threads every six-months or so because the guy was toxic for our franchise when he was with us.

Both Milwaukee and Washington have (had) one thing in common. A beloved yet completely incompetent and meddling owner. In our case it is Herb Kohl. In your case Abe. Both guys like the idea of "winning now" rather than spending years in the high lotto. Both guys are(were) up in age. Kohl is 76 and I think Abe died at 87 (?)

While it would be easy to blame all of Ernie Grunfeld's bad moves on meddling owners, I think that allows him off the hook. The bottom line is that the guy has been a GM from August 1999 (Bucks) through the current day (Wizards). In those 12.5 years, the guy has really made zero signature moves where you go "Wow, that was a great GM....that move(s) turned our franchise around"

In the draft world, he absolutely sucks. He doesn't find you Westbrooks, Serge Ibaka's or Wesley Matthews. Instead he finds you Marcus Haislips and Nick Young's at best.

In the contract world, he overpays everyone for fear of "losing an asset". Whether it was giving Tim Thomas $68 million to stay in Milwaukee, $20 million along with Scott Williams and a future #1 (Josh Smith) for Anthony Mason or your situations with the Arenas, etc bad contracts or trading the #5 pick away twice.

What Grunfeld excels at are two things:

a) He knows how to suck up to his owner. You guys can read into the Kohl/Polin/Grunfeld situation on a number of levels. The bottom line is that he's obviously a good insider politician, otherwise he doesn't last nearly as long as he has.

b) Grunfeld is more than adept at working the phones and getting deals done involving overpaid veterans. He engages in a bunch of "activity" involving veterans that you assume he might know what he's doing. Sometimes he blows enough future assets to put together a 43-win team. But in the end, you mistake that "activity" for being a good GM.

Just my two cents. You guys won't get significantly better until you clean house and get a new front office.

[hands11]

I hope Troy Weaver becomes the next GM. Weaver can perhaps in the future sign a marquee free agent, like Kevin Durant.

Pairing Weaver with a strong analytics guy would be ideal.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

So we would have to wait until the offseason for that.

Regardless of if we have a decent/good record or not, its probably time for some new blood if there is someone really good out there. EG was the best they could attract before. I think they would attract more qualified GMs now.

But keep in mind, there is risk with change so it would have to be someone we know is good.

[closg00]

Worth bumping since Gil is the news for his contract being ranked the worst sports contract of all time on Yahoo.

“I got hurt before I got the contract and I still got rewarded. So it’s not like I tricked somebody. They knew I was hurt. I didn’t play that year; I played like [13] games the year before my contract and I got the contract anyway, because of what I DID. You get paid on what you did, not what you’re GONNA do. That’s what people don’t understand. You get paid on what you did.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc- ... sports_pop

[tontoz]

Worth bumping since Gil is the news for his contract being ranked the worst sports contract of all time on Yahoo.

“I got hurt before I got the contract and I still got rewarded. So it’s not like I tricked somebody. They knew I was hurt. I didn’t play that year; I played like [13] games the year before my contract and I got the contract anyway, because of what I DID. You get paid on what you did, not what you’re GONNA do. That’s what people don’t understand. You get paid on what you did.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc- ... sports_pop

You get paid on what you did if you have an incompetent GM.

[SizzlinSimms]

Honestly, EG is what the Wizards future hinges on right now. If he pulls a drastic move and it backfires with another loaded contract, well poo.

I'm so afraid he's going to pull something drastic. It's bound to happen.

[hands11]

Worth bumping since Gil is the news for his contract being ranked the worst sports contract of all time on Yahoo.

“I got hurt before I got the contract and I still got rewarded. So it’s not like I tricked somebody. They knew I was hurt. I didn’t play that year; I played like [13] games the year before my contract and I got the contract anyway, because of what I DID. You get paid on what you did, not what you’re GONNA do. That’s what people don’t understand. You get paid on what you did.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc- ... sports_pop

You get paid on what you did if you have an incompetent GM.

There is stuff to blame EG for, Gils contract is not one of them. Thats on Abe.

EG is the one who shipped that hot turd contract out of here and Orlando is still paying it until 2016.

[FAH1223]

Worth bumping since Gil is the news for his contract being ranked the worst sports contract of all time on Yahoo.

“I got hurt before I got the contract and I still got rewarded. So it’s not like I tricked somebody. They knew I was hurt. I didn’t play that year; I played like [13] games the year before my contract and I got the contract anyway, because of what I DID. You get paid on what you did, not what you’re GONNA do. That’s what people don’t understand. You get paid on what you did.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc- ... sports_pop

All true. He also got paid because the assumption was he'd be back to 100% sometime in 2008-2009 and yet he only played a couple games and wasn't really ready until the start of 2009-10 when gun gate occurred two months into the year.

The Wizards took a risk on Gilbert in 2003. Ernie was new, MJ was gone, Abe signed off on overpaying a RFA so what GSW had no chance to match under the old CBA. The gamble ACTUALLY paid off with Gil beocming a dynamic scorer and leading the team to a few post season appearance but the gamble didn't pay off after the Summer of 2008.

The Summer of 2011 and 2009 really are the worst things Ernie has done.

John Wall got paid for what the front office THINKS he will do, surely not on what he's done.

[closg00]

There is stuff to blame EG for, Gils contract is not one of them. Thats on Abe.

EG is the one who shipped that hot turd contract out of here and Orlando is still paying it until 2016.

Who was it that negotiated the terms of this "hot turd contract"?, it wasn't the dying Abe.

Ernie Grunfeld was out-smarted by Gilbert Arenas. Huge contract with no protection for the Wizards organization. No team-option at the end of the contract. No performance clauses considering the knee surgery. All negotiated by Ernie Grunfeld. You would never see this kind of contract written-up by a competent GM.