Possible Carmelo Anthony to Wizards Yahoo Article

[milellie111]

Anyone see this article in light of Carmelo's recent comments? What do you think?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-washington-wizards-sign-carmelo-anthony-2014-150800156--nba.html

[verbal8]

I think it is a bit of a homer slant. I can't see the Wizards being more appealing than the Lakers and other likely suitors. It would be interesting to see if the Mavs make a serious move.

[nuposse04]

I'm not a fan of Melo, but at least for the next 2 seasons after the hypothetical signing, we'd be contenders.

[nate33]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

[truwizfan4evr]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

I agree

[jivelikenice]

Only way you get in the conversation for a Melo type FA is if we make the playoffs, and Wall/Beal live up to their potential as a dynamic backcourt with at least one becoming an all star performer.

[Nivek]

Funny, I just blogged about this. As nate points out, it can't happen. Aside from that, it shouldn't. Anthony is overrated and brutally expensive. Plus, he turns 30 in May of 2014, which means that IF Washington signed him, they'd be (once again) buying the wrong of a player's career. What's most likely to happen with Anthony from ages 30-34 is that the quality of his play will decline.

Just nonsense.

[hands11]

Only way you get in the conversation for a Melo type FA is if we make the playoffs, and Wall/Beal live up to their potential as a dynamic backcourt with at least one becoming an all star performer.

Sounds like something Ted was saying.

[stevemcqueen1]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

I'm getting 43.2 million in cap commitments before the draft pick cap hold, if we don't pick up any options on Ernie's kids except Beal. Then you could trade the pick and have almost 20 million in cap room right?

Also, would we be able to sign Melo to a certain number that takes us up to the cap, and then decide to pick up the options using exceptions on Ernie's kids as roster filler?

I think we'd pretty much have to deal Nene in order to sign Melo. Or Melo would have to be willing to take a sizeable pay cut. And that's not necessarily crazy, although it's unlikely. Dwight did it. And Melo had his cake and ate it too when he got himself traded from Denver back when S&Ts could be done to get you the extra year. Look what that got him. He desperately wants to win and he knows his window is closing.

But I also get the sense Melo is a New York guy and he really loves the city, loves his life there. My gut is that he'll try and make it work there. Once Amare's disaster of a contract is finally off the books, New York will have a brief window to make something big happen with Carmelo still in a productive period of his career.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think it is a bit of a homer slant. I can't see the Wizards being more appealing than the Lakers and other likely suitors. It would be interesting to see if the Mavs make a serious move.

I don't know about other suitors, but I think the Wizards today are more appealing than the Lakers as a FA destination, much less after this season, where there'll be a great chance they're coming off a playoff appearance.

The Lakers really aren't a very appealing destination right now. This is NOT your older brother's Lakers. Their long term future is so uncertain and the end of Kobe's career totally looms over everything.

And Wall is a very desirable teammate for anybody. Throw in Beal if he emerges this season. The league thinks very highly of those two right now. You'll definitely get some interest and have our name attached to every big name FA that hits the market.

[Kanyewest]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

So it would have to be a sign and trade.

[MikeTheKid]

Id rather sign Greg Monroe than Melo!!!

[Dark Faze]

I'll say that playing with Wall is the best thing that could happen to Melo. Melo has never played with a guy who can create. He does waste the shot clock by trying to play iso ball, but look at who he's played with his entire career--Iverson, Felton, Billups--guys who are shoot first, pass second players.

With that said I'd rather have Monroe than have to have Nene as our sole rim protector on a talented offensive team.

[Nivek]

I'm getting 43.2 million in cap commitments before the draft pick cap hold, if we don't pick up any options on Ernie's kids except Beal. Then you could trade the pick and have almost 20 million in cap room right?

Commitments are $43.9 million for next season, before accounting for a first round pick. Then there are required minimum salary cap holds to get the team to 12 "filled" slots -- so that's 5 more minimum salaries applied to the cap. They'd get to "cash in" one of those in a free-agent signing, but there'd still be holds totaling ~$2 million. So, even if they traded away the 1st round pick, they'd have salary commitments of $45.9 million. If the cap goes to $62.5 million, the Wizards would have ~$16.5 million in cap space.

Also, would we be able to sign Melo to a certain number that takes us up to the cap, and then decide to pick up the options using exceptions on Ernie's kids as roster filler?

No. The Wizards have to decide on options for Vesely and Singleton within the next couple weeks. If the Wizards wanted to maintain any rights to any of the Ernie kids (Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin, Booker), they'd have to extend qualifying offers and cap holds would be applied. In Booker's case, the hold would be $5.9 million. For Seraphin: $6.9 million.

The Wiz hold options on Vesely and Singleton (have to be exercised or declined for next season this month) -- for Vesely, it's $4.5 million; for Singleton: $2.6 million. Not sure what kind of rights the Wizards would have if they decline the options (which they should do). I think they just become unrestricted free agents after the season.

I think we'd pretty much have to deal Nene in order to sign Melo. Or Melo would have to be willing to take a sizeable pay cut. And that's not necessarily crazy, although it's unlikely. Dwight did it. And Melo had his cake and ate it too when he got himself traded from Denver back when S&Ts could be done to get you the extra year. Look what that got him. He desperately wants to win and he knows his window is closing.

But I also get the sense Melo is a New York guy and he really loves the city, loves his life there. My gut is that he'll try and make it work there. Once Amare's disaster of a contract is finally off the books, New York will have a brief window to make something big happen with Carmelo still in a productive period of his career.

I think it'd be pretty foolish to cash in so many assets in terms of cap space, draft pick(s) and/or players to acquire Anthony -- who's a) overrated, b) brutally expensive, and c) turns 30 next May.

[jivelikenice]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

You'd probably have to sell the pick and dump Webster to make it work. Not saying its likely or something I'd do, but when you're that close in terms of dollars, there's a way to make it work if you really wanted to and interest was mutual.

So taking that out of the equation, its down to would you want Carmelo, which from a Wiz fan's perspective sounds crazy to say outloud. Do you take him for the instant creditbitlity he'd bring to the organization? That's a tough call....I think he theoretically could fit in very well if we was willing to play the 4. My concern is his ball dominance and how that would impact Wall/Beal. Is Melo at the point in his career where he realizes he needs help and would he allow Wall to do what he does and make it even easier for Melo to score? I think that will depend on how this season goes for him, but thats what you have to look at. A Wall/Beal/Porter/Melo/Nene starting 5 has you in the conversation for a deep playoff run. Simply from a marketing perspective, getting Melo would help Ted recapture the fanbase in Baltimore....

[jivelikenice]

Id rather sign Greg Monroe than Melo!!!

I would too but unfortunately he's a RFA. Only way he leaves is if Falk orchestrates it.

[Nivek]

I'll say that playing with Wall is the best thing that could happen to Melo. Melo has never played with a guy who can create. He does waste the shot clock by trying to play iso ball, but look at who he's played with his entire career--Iverson, Felton, Billups--guys who are shoot first, pass second players.

With that said I'd rather have Monroe than have to have Nene as our sole rim protector on a talented offensive team.

Billups is a shoot-first guy? That's news to me.

Anthony also played with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson, both of whom are passers.

I think Anthony plays the way he does because that's how he plays the game. I think he'd have a hard time sharing the ball with Wall because he's had a hard time sharing the ball wherever he's been. He thinks of himself as the guy who "creates" offense -- not as a guy who has someone else "create" for him.

[Nivek]

How does idiotic stuff like this manage to get posted by Yahoo?

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. You can't just say that, because Okafor and Ariza combine to cost $22M, that we can just let them expire and sign Melo for the same amount of money. The salary cap doesn't work that way.

If we let Ariza and Okafor (and Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) walk, we will have about $17.5M in cap room after accounting for the cap hold for our pick, and assuming the salary cap increases to $62.5M. That's not enough for Melo when New York will surely be willing to pay him $22M a year using Larry Bird rights.

You'd probably have to sell the pick and dump Webster to make it work. Not saying its likely or something I'd do, but when you're that close in terms of dollars, there's a way to make it work if you really wanted to and interest was mutual.

So taking that out of the equation, its down to would you want Carmelo, which from a Wiz fan's perspective sounds crazy to say outloud. Do you take him for the instant creditbitlity he'd bring to the organization? That's a tough call....I think he theoretically could fit in very well if we was willing to play the 4. My concern is his ball dominance and how that would impact Wall/Beal. Is Melo at the point in his career where he realizes he needs help and would he allow Wall to do what he does and make it even easier for Melo to score? I think that will depend on how this season goes for him, but thats what you have to look at. A Wall/Beal/Porter/Melo/Nene starting 5 has you in the conversation for a deep playoff run. Simply from a marketing perspective, getting Melo would help Ted recapture the fanbase in Baltimore....

Easy answer for me: No, at least not at the his price tag. I think he'd provide faux credibility. Average fans would love it, the sportswriters and pontificaters would talk about how the Wizards are instant contenders and whatnot. Except they wouldn't be as good as "everyone" expected them to be because "everyone" would be treating Anthony like he was a win-producing star, when he's not. At least not at the kind of level that produces championships or even contends for them. Unless, of course, he abruptly improves. At age 30 and beyond.

Anthony is a good player, but he's not great and he's not worth the kind of money and/or machinations it would take to acquire him. And, realistically speaking, by age 30, what you see is what you get. Except for when he starts to decline -- probably around 32 or 33 (the last year or two of his contract).

On the positive side of things -- pair Anthony with Wall, Beal, Porter and Somebody in the middle, and it's a playoff team for the next 4 years. Of course, they have a good chance of being a perennial playoff team anyway if they can get someone competent to play PF and C without burning everything on Anthony.

[jivelikenice]

Billups is a shoot-first guy? That's news to me.

Anthony also played with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson, both of whom are passers.

I think Anthony plays the way he does because that's how he plays the game. I think he'd have a hard time sharing the ball with Wall because he's had a hard time sharing the ball wherever he's been. He thinks of himself as the guy who "creates" offense -- not as a guy who has someone else "create" for him.

I never really considered Billups passt first. His three years in Denver w/ Melo he averaged 6.4, 5.6 and 5.3 apg. When he first came out he was more of a combo/scoring pg. He eventually developed into more of a floor leader as he matured (and was surrounded by a better team), but I wouldn't consider him pass first and his career assist numbers seem to support that. Ty Lawson had just gotten into the league and was a reserve while Melo was in Denver so I don't think there's a good sample there. Miller is definitely pass first and they played togehter in Denver during Melo's first four years. How did you model have him rates those years?

[Nivek]

Billups is a shoot-first guy? That's news to me.

Anthony also played with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson, both of whom are passers.

I think Anthony plays the way he does because that's how he plays the game. I think he'd have a hard time sharing the ball with Wall because he's had a hard time sharing the ball wherever he's been. He thinks of himself as the guy who "creates" offense -- not as a guy who has someone else "create" for him.

I never really considered Billups passt first. His three years in Denver w/ Melo he averaged 6.4, 5.6 and 5.3 apg. When he first came out he was more of a combo/scoring pg. He eventually developed into more of a floor leader as he matured (and was surrounded by a better team), but I wouldn't consider him pass first and his career assist numbers seem to support that. Ty Lawson had just gotten into the league and was a reserve while Melo was in Denver so I don't think there's a good sample there. Miller is definitely pass first and they played togehter in Denver during Melo's first four years. How did you model have him rates those years?

Fair point on early Billups.

Here's how Carmelo rated each of his first four seasons in my metric:

2003-04 -- 105
2004-05 -- 99
2005-06 -- 151
2006-07 -- 143

That 151 was his best season until last year, when he hit 162.