2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[GhostsOfGil]

I really dislike the fact that Ariza is starting over Webster. He is the perfect floor spacer next to Wall and last year was the league leader in right wing corner 3 efficiency. I thought this quote from BF summed it up perfectly:

This has been another game where Martell wasn't able to get clean looks from three. You just can't take a top shooter from a year ago out of his element, force him to play with lower-usage players and expect him to live up to his contract.

[deneem4]

Webster not jus a shooter...he has ball handling and driving capabilities, no one else other than wall nd beal has that...
webster rice jr nd Harrington is a bench mob for us..
wish 1 of them knew how to play point cause maynor blows and we would be able to put vesley at sf where he can be the hustle energy guy...
I think webster rice and Harrington is a key factor in our team success this yr...

I think our main lineup should be

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Booker
Seraphin
Its a small ball but its fast paced, I see booker getting some good put backs and helping out seraphin on those double teams...nenes winyness should hsve him coming off the bench...if hes going to play only 25mins he needs to be the best player on the floor for 25mins and that's the best scenario for that...he also only have to play again backups mostly and harrington can guard the bigger bodies

Our bench is going to be where we shine
Rice
Webster
Vesley
Harrington
Nene

Fck maynor...buyout his contract send him home...rice jr isnt a point guard and not the smartest passer but he csn get the ball up the court on the other hand nene and harrington are excellent passing big men and webster can find you as well...vesley can be the energy guy who goes for put backs and tip ins..while webster and rice jr are our iso players
If avery bradley can run point rice jr can as well...

[dckingsfan]

Yes he is, but that's who they signed to be the backup. Temple can play spot minutes at the point, but it's not his best position.

Agreed, he needs to step it up for the second unit not to be a disaster. And Wall generally plays big minutes so it just needs to be 10 quality minutes. I am pulling for him, crossing my fingers at the same time and worried that he isn't going to cut it - like the backup PGs of last year.

[dckingsfan]

I really dislike the fact that Ariza is starting over Webster. He is the perfect floor spacer next to Wall and last year was the league leader in right wing corner 3 efficiency. I thought this quote from BF summed it up perfectly:

This has been another game where Martell wasn't able to get clean looks from three. You just can't take a top shooter from a year ago out of his element, force him to play with lower-usage players and expect him to live up to his contract.

Also, I like Ariza's ball handling in the second unit. And I like Ariza's D and rebounding when Seraphin is in with the second unit as well.

[Rafael122]

Is backup PG really that hard of a position to solidify? Just bring the ball up and pass it.

[jivelikenice]

Randy wouldn't do it but the bets lineup right now IMO is this:
Wall
Beal
Webster
Booker
Seraphin

2nd team
Maynor
Rice
Ariza
Jan
Nene

Let Wall/Beal carry the load for the starting unit. Seraphin also might be able to get a few buckets early before defenders buckle down. Then let Nene come in an anchor the scoring for the second unit. Maynor plays at his pace so the fit is better there. Obviously at the end of the game Nene will be in w/ the starters, but this lineup seems more balanced....

[GhostsOfGil]

Webster not jus a shooter...he has ball handling and driving capabilities, no one else other than wall nd beal has that...
webster rice jr nd Harrington is a bench mob for us..
wish 1 of them knew how to play point cause maynor blows and we would be able to put vesley at sf where he can be the hustle energy guy...
I think webster rice and Harrington is a key factor in our team success this yr...

I think our main lineup should be

Wall
Beal
Ariza
Booker
Seraphin
Its a small ball but its fast paced, I see booker getting some good put backs and helping out seraphin on those double teams...nenes winyness should hsve him coming off the bench...if hes going to play only 25mins he needs to be the best player on the floor for 25mins and that's the best scenario for that...he also only have to play again backups mostly and harrington can guard the bigger bodies

Our bench is going to be where we shine
Rice
Webster
Vesley
Harrington
Nene

Fck maynor...buyout his contract send him home...rice jr isnt a point guard and not the smartest passer but he csn get the ball up the court on the other hand nene and harrington are excellent passing big men and webster can find you as well...vesley can be the energy guy who goes for put backs and tip ins..while webster and rice jr are our iso players
If avery bradley can run point rice jr can as well...

There's no way Rice can handle pg duties at this time. Maynor has looked awful, but we signed him for $4 million. No way we just buy him out after 4 preseason games. Ariza is shooting a horrific 32% while playing next to Wall. His defensive skills have been less apparent then ever. As we've already seen, our bench is going to suck this year but Martel is out of his element if you put him in a role where he has to create for himself. Also, it's likely that one of Beal, Wall, or Nene will be out there with the second unit. It's not like the 2nd unit is strictly reserved for a set 5.

[deneem4]

^^^ ariza will definitely ramp things up...its a contract year hes going to put up #s...and martell is gettin almost triple what maynor makes he needs to step it up... he was the only player to be about the same percentage wise with wall on and off the floor...he can hold hid own with rice jr and harrington....

Maynor is utterly useless til proven other wise mack better than him...

If we plan to make it to the playoffs we cant give excuses to players on what they can't do without wall...
Last year was horrific but we had a 19yr leading our team in minutes
And our bench is the bright spot on the team...if u seen the preseason games they actually held sht together...especially the 3 already mentioned, nene needs to be on the 2nd unit atleast til okafor comes back...he can't handle power big guys he admitted that after the nets game....

[GhostsOfGil]

and martell is gettin almost triple what maynor makes he needs to step it up...

I posted this earlier from BF. I think it sums it up perfectly:

You just can't take a top shooter from a year ago out of his element, force him to play with lower-usage players and expect him to live up to his contract.

[Nivek]

Ariza will be fine. He's an established veteran and his performance is unlikely to deviate significantly for the next few years.

Rice can't play PG.

Maynor has played so far in preseason about like I expected, but I'm still hoping he can play better as he learns his teammates and the coaches figure out how they might be able to use him. Emphasize "hoping". My expectation is that he's going to be bad.

Wrote a piece over at the blog today looking at the team's shooting. Basically, it's a take-off on what Kirk Goldsberry published, and then with Tom Ziller's tweaks. Pretty interesting to research. Hope it's an interesting read.

Scary to see the numbers that the team had only three net positive shooters from the floor last season: Webster, Ariza and Vesely. (Remember, Vesely's efg was .500 last season -- league average was .496.) The guy who REALLY killed the Wizards offense was Seraphin -- significant minutes, high usage, bad shooting, few offensive boards, lots of turnovers. His offensive production was 127 points below average for the season.

[dckingsfan]

And Seraphin is close to being in the starting line-up - worrisome to say the least.

[Dat2U]

Is backup PG really that hard of a position to solidify? Just bring the ball up and pass it.

That may be part of the problem though. The role needs to be more than just being a 10 minute backup that walks the ball up and gets the team into it's sets. I don't think the front office really understands the importance of having a quality backup in the backcourt. It's almost like they don't want to waste resources at the same position Wall & Beal plays.

[Nivek]

I'd like to get an explanation from the team about what was wrong with Price. The one semi-substantive complaint I heard was that Maynor is better than Price at getting the team into its sets. When I looked at the issue over at the blog, I couldn't find anything suggesting that "skill" had much value on the scoreboard. At least not in a way that differentiated Maynor from Price.

Again, I'm not saying Price was anything special. He's a below average player, BUT adequate as a backup PG. Especially when he could have been re-signed for the league minimum. The Wiz would have been better off with Price at the minimum and Blair on the BAE.

[nate33]

Wrote a piece over at the blog today looking at the team's shooting. Basically, it's a take-off on what Kirk Goldsberry published, and then with Tom Ziller's tweaks. Pretty interesting to research. Hope it's an interesting read.

I'd like to know Beal's numbers since January 1st. He was unbearably awful in the first two months and very good thereafter.

[Nivek]

Wrote a piece over at the blog today looking at the team's shooting. Basically, it's a take-off on what Kirk Goldsberry published, and then with Tom Ziller's tweaks. Pretty interesting to research. Hope it's an interesting read.

I'd like to know Beal's numbers since January 1st. He was unbearably awful in the first two months and very good thereafter.

From January 1 to the end, Beal was a net +30 in his shooting from the floor. At -3 from the FT line. So, net of +27 shooting the ball after January 1. Overall offensive output -- +19 after January 1.

[payitforward]

Ariza will be fine. He's an established veteran and his performance is unlikely to deviate significantly for the next few years.

Rice can't play PG.

Maynor has played so far in preseason about like I expected, but I'm still hoping he can play better as he learns his teammates and the coaches figure out how they might be able to use him. Emphasize "hoping". My expectation is that he's going to be bad.

Wrote a piece over at the blog today looking at the team's shooting. Basically, it's a take-off on what Kirk Goldsberry published, and then with Tom Ziller's tweaks. Pretty interesting to research. Hope it's an interesting read.

Scary to see the numbers that the team had only three net positive shooters from the floor last season: Webster, Ariza and Vesely. (Remember, Vesely's efg was .500 last season -- league average was .496.) The guy who REALLY killed the Wizards offense was Seraphin -- significant minutes, high usage, bad shooting, few offensive boards, lots of turnovers. His offensive production was 127 points below average for the season.

Great piece, Kevin.

[deneem4]

In some stretches u can have rice jr play pg...he's as adequate enough,
we dont need sets with nene and harrington on the floor
nene wont run them and will sit in the paint...moving up and down...why do you think our offense has been so fluid without nene out?
If we was hitting our open shots we could literally play with no post up game considering seraphin is jus a bluff.

Nene is a great big man but he WANTS to play on limited minutes...

with that being said you dont have to tell nene and harrington where to go webster either, all 3 will find good position some where on the floor and they all will find the open man...

Vesely is best running around he set picks every time he comes near a team mate regardless of who it is and where hes at..thats unnoticed but very helpful...and if u watch he wants the oop on alot of plays...this is where maynot suppose to come in...but he dont...

Everybody can't play with wall on the floor, our next best passer is between beal and nene...let nene run the offense from the high post (ala marc gasol/d cousins)

[GhostsOfGil]

Man looks like Ariza will be the starting 3 going into the season. Good thing we drafted Porter and signed Webster for 22 million to back him up!

The idea is that Ariza's defense complements John Wall and Bradley Beal, whereas Webster is being asked to expand his game to become a bit more of an initiator for the second unit that is currently struggling when Eric Maynor is playing.

I'm not a fan, though.

This seems like overthinking the issue. When Webster played with Wall and Beal last year, no matter the other two players on the court, the Wizards outscored teams by 18.7 points per 100 possessions in 303 minutes, per NBA.com. Eighteen point seven points per 100 possessions. They had an offensive efficiency of 110.6 and a defensive efficiency of 91.9. Both marks would have led the league if they somehow kept the rate up over 48 minutes the entire season.

The Wall/Bea/Ariza trio, on the other hand, scored 102.5 points per 100 possessions and gave up 99.3 in 211 minutes together last year. That's not bad, but it's not eighteen point seven points per 100 possessions better. Wittman seems concerned about defense, but Wall/Beal/Webster was a significantly better defensive trio than Wall/Beal/Ariza last year, no matter which big men were on the floor.

...

But I still don't understand the desire to go away from something that worked so well last year. Webster will surely play with Beal and Wall at times, but by removing him from the starting lineup, you're removing a huge bucket of minutes the three of them would have shared. There was so much offensive symmetry with Wall's penetration and Beal and Webster's shooting, and the numbers strongly suggest that defense isn't nearly as big an issue as Wittman makes it sound.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/10/2 ... ll-forward

[Ruzious]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

[80sballboy]

I sense this will be an issue all year. I'd start Webster but the key is who will be in there on the floor at the end.