Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[rockymac52]

For what it's worth, I found these stats interesting.

2012-13 preseason team stats: (no Wall or Nene though)
ORtg: 101.7
DRtg: 105.5
Net: - 3.8

2012-13 regular season team stats:
ORtg: 100.2
DRtg: 103
Net: - 2.8

2013-14 preseason team stats:
ORtg: 94.4
DRtg: 95.2
Net: - .8

Obviously there's a lot of small sample size issues here, and the fact that Wall and Nene didn't play in the preseason last year and the team stats still looked similar for the regular season might indicate that the small sample size is a problem.

However, my takeaway is that our defense might be even better than it was last year. If we keep up this pace defensively, we'll have the best defense in the league by far. Maybe that's unrealistic and a result of the small sample size, but it's definitely a good sign, and it probably means that even if we aren't quite as good defensively as we appear in the preseason, we're still likely a very good defensive team - as in, at least top 10, quite possibly top 5. And of course, that's all without Okafor, in the event that he is able to come back this season to help out.

The problem is our offense is even worse than it was last year, when we had the worst offense in the league. BUT, maybe it's not as bad as it looks. Ariza's shooting has been dreadful so far. Even if he's not as good as he was last year, he's still a veteran and there's no reason to think his shooting won't return to respectable levels. The same goes for Maynor. I'm not a fan of Maynor at all, but I can admit that normally he has at least an average outside shot, but so far this preseason, he's been worse than Wall from deep somehow. That has to get better inevitably.

There's other people to blame for our offensive woes so far, including Wall, but given his shooting issues in the past, I'm not ready to ignore his poor performance so far this year, since it might be similar to what he'll do for the rest of the year. I hope I'm wrong on that front.

But my main point is that our outside shooting has been pitiful so far in the preseason, and at least to a certain extent, it will improve over time as Ariza and Maynor get back to shooting at least 30% from deep. That boost in offense would probably be enough to increase our ORtg to a number higher than our DRtg, making us a playoff team.

Granted, while some guys are struggling, Beal has been lights out, and while I'm very optimistic that Beal can continue to excel going forward, it's possible that he's just been on a hot streak and that he'll come back down to Earth, possibly canceling out Ariza and Maynor's ascension back to Earth.

[pancakes3]

35

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm beginning to think this is the season where the sh#t hits the fan for Ernie & Randy. Put me down now for 31 wins and a lottery pick in the 7-9 range for the 2014 draft.

Wall will take another solid step in his progression with a small uptick in TS% & a big jump defensively as becomes one of the better perimeter defenders in the league but his jumper will be an issue of concern. Beal will show good growth too as he'll approach average to slightly above average play next season and be primed for a breakout in '14-'15.

Ariza will get traded early on for frontline depth. That trade will backfire as the Wizards lose it's best wing defender for marginal front court help. Webster also returns to career norms as he battles through injuries and consistency and Otto Porter makes a painfully slow transition from the Big East that will have many suggesting he's a bust (and the key impetus in getting Ernie fired).

Rice will be the pleasant surprise of the season as he'll steal the bulk of minutes at SF from Porter and average double digits over the 2nd half of the season albeit with poor defense.

Okafor misses all of the year. Nene ends up missing more than half the year and shuts it down in February for rest (and quietly demands a trade to a contender).

I wouldn't be surprised if Wall's frustrations with losing come to a boil at some point this year.

Dat, this is my favorite post from this thread. You are probably on target. My head says this could play out. S hits fan. Wizards disappoint. Wall wants to bolt. FINALLY, EG gets the boot.

However, my guess is before too long the Wizards will trade Okafor/Nene and Ariza for one of the following over-the-hill players: Zach Randolph or Amare Stoudemire.

The Lakers probably won't give up Pau, but he's a good player (esp,. because his contract expires) who the Wizards won't get unless they part with way too much. Some other players I could see the Wizards acquiring via trade: Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, Ryan Anderson, Irsan Ilyasova, and Wilson Chandler. Stoudemire will be a player the Wizards covet, particularly after the Knicks figure out they're going NOWHERE with Bargnani and MWP in their lineup. Amare just feels like a player this franchise historically goes after in the twilight of a career.

I think the Wizards will successfully acquire a player who gets them to the playoffs but who locks them into mediocrity.

I'm totally feeling 45 wins at all cost for the future. They will do ANYTHING to make the playoffs this season, particularly forget about their future. Put me down for 45 wins and a 5th or 6th seed in the east. An Ariza+ ? trade is surely coming soon IMO. I don't think it will backfire in year one, with the Wizards eying playoffs at all costs. Amare can still score in regular season, as can Randolph or Rudy Gay,

[nuposse04]

Amare's contract is uninsured, no way ted signs off on that.

[rockymac52]

Amare's contract is uninsured, no way ted signs off on that.

Personally I think the whole uninsured contract issue is way overblown, especially now that Amar'e only has 2 years left on his deal. The absolute worst case scenario would be that Amar'e's knees have more issues and he basically has a career-ending injury and never plays a single game for us, in which case Ted would still have to pay him his full salary for this year and next (although if he retires after this season, his cap hit wouldn't count in 2014-15 I believe).

If we're talking about trading Okafor as a big part of the package for Amar'e, then at least in this first season, if Okafor doesn't come back to play at all this year (which I suspect is the case), then it's kinda a moot point since we're basically paying Okafor $15 million to sit at home.

I just don't think the potential loss if Amar'e has a career-ending injury in the next 2 years is that big of a deal.

[nuposse04]

Amare's contract is uninsured, no way ted signs off on that.

Personally I think the whole uninsured contract issue is way overblown, especially now that Amar'e only has 2 years left on his deal. The absolute worst case scenario would be that Amar'e's knees have more issues and he basically has a career-ending injury and never plays a single game for us, in which case Ted would still have to pay him his full salary for this year and next (although if he retires after this season, his cap hit wouldn't count in 2014-15 I believe).

If we're talking about trading Okafor as a big part of the package for Amar'e, then at least in this first season, if Okafor doesn't come back to play at all this year (which I suspect is the case), then it's kinda a moot point since we're basically paying Okafor $15 million to sit at home.

I just don't think the potential loss if Amar'e has a career-ending injury in the next 2 years is that big of a deal.

Amare can't stay on the court. EG might make an asinine short term deal but he's going to at least get a productive player who can stay on the court. I suspect something like Okafor+protected pick for Gortat is the most reasonable thing he can justify in his incredibly dense neutron star of a head.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Gortat and Channing Frye each might actually make sense IMO.

[rockymac52]

Amare's contract is uninsured, no way ted signs off on that.

Personally I think the whole uninsured contract issue is way overblown, especially now that Amar'e only has 2 years left on his deal. The absolute worst case scenario would be that Amar'e's knees have more issues and he basically has a career-ending injury and never plays a single game for us, in which case Ted would still have to pay him his full salary for this year and next (although if he retires after this season, his cap hit wouldn't count in 2014-15 I believe).

If we're talking about trading Okafor as a big part of the package for Amar'e, then at least in this first season, if Okafor doesn't come back to play at all this year (which I suspect is the case), then it's kinda a moot point since we're basically paying Okafor $15 million to sit at home.

I just don't think the potential loss if Amar'e has a career-ending injury in the next 2 years is that big of a deal.

Amare can't stay on the court. EG might make an asinine short term deal but he's going to at least get a productive player who can stay on the court. I suspect something like Okafor+protected pick for Gortat is the most reasonable thing he can justify in his incredibly dense neutron star of a head.

I'd hope so, but I'm not so sure that's the case. Grunfeld's classic move involves trading away a huge expiring contract for a slightly better player with a big contract with one extra year remaining. AKA Amar'e Stoudemire for Emeka Okafor and filler.

Even though Amar'e has health issues, it's not like Nene didn't when we traded for him. Okafor only played 27 games the season before we traded for him, and whaddyaknow, now he's out for a long time. We're more than willing to take on players with health concerns.

[nuposse04]

I'd be ok with Gortat if we could manage not to give the '14 pick. He'd easily fill a hole but there are probably at LEAST 20 players who could legitimately be better then him in this draft. Ideally I'd flip Ariza+'15 lotto protected 1st pick for him and then if Okafor is healthy by the trade deadline see what we can do there as well. Gortat should have lower value this season after coming off a semi down season with PHX.

[nuposse04]

Personally I think the whole uninsured contract issue is way overblown, especially now that Amar'e only has 2 years left on his deal. The absolute worst case scenario would be that Amar'e's knees have more issues and he basically has a career-ending injury and never plays a single game for us, in which case Ted would still have to pay him his full salary for this year and next (although if he retires after this season, his cap hit wouldn't count in 2014-15 I believe).

If we're talking about trading Okafor as a big part of the package for Amar'e, then at least in this first season, if Okafor doesn't come back to play at all this year (which I suspect is the case), then it's kinda a moot point since we're basically paying Okafor $15 million to sit at home.

I just don't think the potential loss if Amar'e has a career-ending injury in the next 2 years is that big of a deal.

Amare can't stay on the court. EG might make an asinine short term deal but he's going to at least get a productive player who can stay on the court. I suspect something like Okafor+protected pick for Gortat is the most reasonable thing he can justify in his incredibly dense neutron star of a head.

I'd hope so, but I'm not so sure that's the case. Grunfeld's classic move involves trading away a huge expiring contract for a slightly better player with a big contract with one extra year remaining. AKA Amar'e Stoudemire for Emeka Okafor and filler.

Even though Amar'e has health issues, it's not like Nene didn't when we traded for him. Okafor only played 27 games the season before we traded for him, and whaddyaknow, now he's out for a long time. We're more than willing to take on players with health concerns.

Nene can actually get on the court though, Amare can't. Amare is easily the WORST contract in the NBA right now. EG is an asinine baboon but I don't think even think he's that lacking in the chromosome department.

[rockymac52]

Amar'e's missed 72 games in the last 2 seasons. Nene has missed 48 games in the last 2 seasons.

Is it really that big of a difference? They're both constantly injured and not quite as good as they used to be a few years ago. Amar'e gets paid a lot more, but his deal is 1 year shorter as well.

[nuposse04]

Amar'e's missed 72 games in the last 2 seasons. Nene has missed 48 games in the last 2 seasons.

Is it really that big of a difference? They're both constantly injured and not quite as good as they used to be a few years ago. Amar'e gets paid a lot more, but his deal is 1 year shorter as well.

Amare, IMO is getting considerably worse as time wears on. I only expect Nene for about 65 games this season but I'd be surprised if Amare plays half the season. Also Nene does look considerably better then last season, so the minutes we get from Nene I believe ought to be more conducive to wins.

Also Amare played 47 games two seasons ago, and 29 this past season. He is acutely trending downward. Nene played 39 2 seasons ago, and 61 this past. I by no means think Nene can play an entire season...but injury wise both guys are trending in different directions. It is unfortunate cause if both guys were healthy the eastern conference would get some really good quality basketball.

[tontoz]

Amar'e's missed 72 games in the last 2 seasons. Nene has missed 48 games in the last 2 seasons.

Is it really that big of a difference? They're both constantly injured and not quite as good as they used to be a few years ago. Amar'e gets paid a lot more, but his deal is 1 year shorter as well.

Amare's contract isn't insured which makes him basically untradeable.

[tontoz]

I am going with 39 wins. I can certainly understand why people think they will win less. This team has no depth. If Wall or Beal miss extended time it's curtains.

However assuming no major injury problems i still think this will be a good defensive team. They were good before Okafor got here and i don't see why losing one player will kill their defense.

I dont think Wall will play at the level he did during his hot streak but i do think this will be his best year due to experience and not having to deal with the lockout/injury/knuckleheads.

I also think this year's team will have something they haven't had in several years, a legit number 1 option on offense. I think Beal will be that guy and that it will be a big help to the offense. I still expect the offense to be pretty bad but not worst in the league.

[rockymac52]

Amar'e's missed 72 games in the last 2 seasons. Nene has missed 48 games in the last 2 seasons.

Is it really that big of a difference? They're both constantly injured and not quite as good as they used to be a few years ago. Amar'e gets paid a lot more, but his deal is 1 year shorter as well.

Amare's contract isn't insured which makes him basically untradeable.

I'm aware, but what I'm trying to say is that I think it becomes less and less untradeable as time goes on, since the potential loss if he can't play due to injuries is minimized.

[willbcocks]

Please drop my total to 37. Upon further reflection, our front court is just terrible.

[FreeBalling]

Amare can't stay on the court. EG might make an asinine short term deal but he's going to at least get a productive player who can stay on the court. I suspect something like Okafor+protected pick for Gortat is the most reasonable thing he can justify in his incredibly dense neutron star of a head.

I'd hope so, but I'm not so sure that's the case. Grunfeld's classic move involves trading away a huge expiring contract for a slightly better player with a big contract with one extra year remaining. AKA Amar'e Stoudemire for Emeka Okafor and filler.

Even though Amar'e has health issues, it's not like Nene didn't when we traded for him. Okafor only played 27 games the season before we traded for him, and whaddyaknow, now he's out for a long time. We're more than willing to take on players with health concerns.

Nene can actually get on the court though, Amare can't. Amare is easily the WORST contract in the NBA right now. EG is an asinine baboon but I don't think even think he's that lacking in the chromosome department.

I'm not sure if Amare is the worst contract in the NBA. Arenas is going to make 22 million this year.


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[closg00]

The window is closing to submit your final predictions. Yahoo has us at 33-49.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... --nba.html

[dobrojim]

post summary - 43 wins

After an offseason in which I was quite optimistic, the preseason and
injury to Okafor has tempered that. BobbyD's comments in the DET
game thread struck me as mostly on target.

I do think KS and JV will be better than they were last year if only
because it's hard to be consistently that gawd-awful. Whether any
improvement from them is enough to offset the loss of Okafor who
as Dat points out, is one of our small core of legit NBA talent players
seems doubtful.

In my mind I had been thinking 47 +/- 5. (yeah I know we don't predict ranges).

Last night vs CLE Wall stunk and Nene wasn't very good but we still won
(by shooting lights out from 3, which will win you a lot of games when you can do that).
Probably shouldn't draw conclusions from one game though. Funny to
read game threads though. Many folks here respond very strongly to each game,
some with rose colored glasses others in funeral garb.

Wall is such a key factor in my mind to how well we do this year and
he's looked disturbingly like the player he was before his big surge in
March and April. Hard to know how much to make of that in preseason.

I'm going to go with 43 wins.

If Okafor comes back by Jan +/- a month, I would think we be have a very
good chance of playoffs, maybe even as high as a 5/4 seed.
If he's out the whole year, all bets are off. We'll be lucky to make the 8th seed.

[verbal8]

Knock mine down to 34. I think occasional brilliant games by Wall and Beal will win some games. However I think the rest of the season will look a lot like last year.