2014 Draft Thread (Early offseason panic edition).

[Knighthonor]

http://www.nba.com/video/games/magic/20 ... -recap.nba

look at that game. people wanted Porter over both of them. lol. with these guys on the wizards they would be unstoppable

[Floater]

I've been really behind on Wizards/NBA stuff this summer and fall. I assume we'll be targeting a big man in the 2014 draft? Or at least hope they do?

[deneem4]

http://www.nba.com/video/games/magic/2013/10/11/0011300034-cle-orl-recap.nba

look at that game. people wanted Porter over both of them. lol. with these guys on the wizards they would be unstoppable

This roty matchup will be a good one

[GhostsOfGil]

I've been really behind on Wizards/NBA stuff this summer and fall. I assume we should have targeted a big man in the 2013 draft?

Fixed

[Induveca]

Porter is going to be a mistake I fear. Kid played like garbage in SL and is getting zero run in the preseason.

Recipe for disaster. As others have echoed I sincerely hope EG isn't hiding him to save his ego for now.

Still can't believe we didn't draft Noel.

[Dat2U]

I still think Porter will be a useful NBA player, but this season is quickly slipping away from him. Injured in summer league, no training camp, no preseason play as of yet, 3rd on depth chart behind two rock solid vets... I'm seeing little opportunity for him to develop right now.

[rockymac52]

I've said it before, and I'm going to say it again - there is a widespread misconception about the depth of the 2014 draft.

First of all, a lot can change in a single season. There's a good chance that half of the incoming freshmen that we currently expect to be 1st round picks in 2014 will be irrelevant by the time the draft rolls around because they weren't nearly as good as we thought they'd be, and their stock has either fell pretty far or they simply weren't good enough and needed to return to school for at least another year. My prime example of this is the 2012 draft class. In the summer and fall of 2011, experts were touting the 2012 draft class as one of the best in recent memory. A year later, the hype has fizzled, and while there were several good players taken at the top of the draft (and throughout it), it's not seen as a particularly strong or weak draft class. I'm hesitant to buy into the hype surrounding the 2014 draft class as a result.

See the following links for proof of the hype surrounding the 2012 class:
http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/how-good- ... s-going-be
http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2 ... -nba-draft
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/7690 ... raft-class


Now, to be clear, I think Andrew Wiggins is the real deal. He's going to be a stud in this league in the very near future. I haven't watched enough of the other top 5 prospects to formulate a solid opinion on them, so I won't make any blind and rash judgments. Let's say hypothetically that there's 2-3 other VERY good prospects by the end of the year - not necessarily surefire all-stars, but pretty good bets to be good players with the potential to be stars. That would mean that there was a ton of talent at the top of the draft compared to most years, which will lead people to believe that it was a stacked draft class. Maybe that's true; maybe by having 4-5 star caliber players in the draft class, that alone makes it a very strong class.

But what's bothering me lately is that everyone seems to assume that the entire draft is stacked. People are overvaluing their team's 2014 draft picks because they've bought into the hype and are convinced that the prospects in this year's draft class are considerably better than they normally are. I'd estimate that most people are valuing 2014 picks as about 3-5 draft slots better than it would be in a "normal" draft class. For example, if the Wizards get the 15th pick in this year's draft, I believe that people are under the impression that the player we select at 15 this year will be just as good as a player that typically gets taken 10th overall in a normal draft. I don't think that's necessarily the case.

Consider this:
Here's a link to Chad Ford (ESPN)'s top 35 prospects eligible for the 2013 draft, published in early April before a few of them announced they were returning to school.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... -prospects

Here's a quick summary of the players who appeared in Ford's top 35 prospects who ultimately decided to go back to school this year instead of entering the draft:

2. Marcus Smart
11. Gary Harris
14. Glenn Robinson III
18. Dario Saric
23. Isaiah Austin
26. James McAdoo
31. Mitch McGary
32. Kyle Anderson
34. Patric Young

Now here's a list of those same players and where they currently rank on Ford's updated top 100 for the 2014 draft class (+ or - change from projected order if they stayed in 2013 draft in parentheses): http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/res ... /year/2014
5. Marcus Smart (-3)
9. Dario Saric (+8)
10. Glenn Robinson III (+4)
13. Gary Harris (-2)
19. Mitch McGary (+12)
29. Isaiah Austin (-6)
30. James McAdoo (-4)
38. Kyle Anderson (-6)
47. Patric Young (-13)

This is a far from perfect and scientific study, but it's still interesting. Take Glenn Robinson III, for example. If he entered the 2013 draft, he was expected to be drafted 14th overall, even though that draft class was considered to be very weak and lacking in depth. However, now he's expected to be drafted 10th overall in the 2014 draft. So that basically indicates that a top ten prospect in the heralded 2014 draft class was barely a lottery prospect a year earlier. Obviously players can improve significantly from their freshman to sophomore seasons, but in theory, it shouldn't effect their draft stock too much, since they were going to have that additional year or development regardless of if they are drafted and spend that year in the NBA or if they spend that year in college again.

I think the top 5 or so in this coming draft class is very promising, and definitely something to get excited about. However, I think once you get past the top 5, it's just your typical draft class. Since the Wizards will probably end up with a pick in the 10-18 range, aka mid 1st round, that would mean that our upcoming pick is just as valuable as a pick in that range would have been this past year or any other year. We should adjust our expectations and valuations accordingly.

[rockymac52]

The general consensus seems to be that this is the year that you don't want to give away your 1st round pick. Even further, this is the year that you want to stockpile as many additional 1st round picks as you can.

But I actually think the opposite is true (at least for teams that aren't in the bottom 6 or 7 teams that have a real good shot at drafting a stud in the top 5).

While every other team is overvaluing their own 2014 1st round picks, we need to take advantage of that incorrect valuation. In theory, we should be able to acquire a better player with our likely mid 1st round pick in 2014 than we would have been able to with a mid 1st round pick in a normal draft. I'm not exactly sure who that player might be at the moment, but it's gotta be someone of fairly decent value.

Think of it this way: if I posted in the trade thread a proposal of Ariza for another team's mid 1st round 2014 pick, everyone would say I'm crazy and that no team would give up that much for Ariza. Now think of the inverse scenario. We own a likely mid 1st round pick in 2014, and if we decided to trade it, we would theoretically be able to acquire a player who is at least better than Ariza, who most of us accept is a quality role player. Personally, I'd love to acquire an additional player this year who's even better than Ariza.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Assuming the season's not a complete disaster/tank that would land us in the top 5, I'm still intrigued by Mitch McGary. Not that it would be much of a consolation, but a season ending with a pick in the 10-14 range is pretty much the worst-case scenario. And that's where McGary currently projects. So I know who I'll be following this year....

If I was going to compare him to someone who played in the NBA, I'd compare him to the most unheralded key guy on the Bullets' champeenship team - Mitch Kupchack. There are 2 other underrated bigs I like. One is Cory Jefferson of Baylor - a late bloomer - but not too late, imo. I rate him ahead of much more heralded teammate Isaiah Austin. And he showed surprising shooting range at the end of the NIT championship run. He's ranked 40th now by draftexpress.com. The other I like is ranked 30th - beefy 6'9 PF Jarnell Stokes - I believe he's going to Tennessee - Ernie's college. He played really well in the 18 and under games when given a shot - runs the court surprisingly well and is a very good low post scorer. If he was just a little taller, he'd be a lotto pick.

Yeah, I'll be watching Cory Jefferson again this year. He was someone I posted about lots in the last draft thread who caught my eye when I was watching Pierre Jackson. He has a great build for a PF. Should be interesting to see how his skills develop.

I really like players like Cory Jefferson, who is projected as a round two pick presently, but who certainly has NBA skills as a scorer/shot blocker. I know wherever he's picked, he's going to go too low. Same as Doug McDermott.

Those guys are like Draymond Green was and Faried a couple seasons back. Four year player, demonstrated competitive games over the years against NBA-caliber picks gone before them. NO BRAINER value picks that GMs tend to pass over in hopes of potential/athletic types like Jan Vesely and Myers Leonard, who may never pan out

I think Myers Leonard will be good enough in a couple years, but by the time he pans out, if he pans out, then he'll be a lot like Javale McGee--about to demand a big contract. I'd much rather have a guy like Cory Jefferson at a minimal deal than have to invest in a Meyers Leonard. But, Leonard is two years younger. Len and Isaiah Austin are three years younger than Cory Jefferson.

Still, a guy like Jefferson can come into the league as a round two player and START in the right situation. Much like a Danny Green, the guy can play in the right system.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The general consensus seems to be that this is the year that you don't want to give away your 1st round pick. Even further, this is the year that you want to stockpile as many additional 1st round picks as you can.

But I actually think the opposite is true (at least for teams that aren't in the bottom 6 or 7 teams that have a real good shot at drafting a stud in the top 5).

While every other team is overvaluing their own 2014 1st round picks, we need to take advantage of that incorrect valuation. In theory, we should be able to acquire a better player with our likely mid 1st round pick in 2014 than we would have been able to with a mid 1st round pick in a normal draft. I'm not exactly sure who that player might be at the moment, but it's gotta be someone of fairly decent value.

Think of it this way: if I posted in the trade thread a proposal of Ariza for another team's mid 1st round 2014 pick, everyone would say I'm crazy and that no team would give up that much for Ariza. Now think of the inverse scenario. We own a likely mid 1st round pick in 2014, and if we decided to trade it, we would theoretically be able to acquire a player who is at least better than Ariza, who most of us accept is a quality role player. Personally, I'd love to acquire an additional player this year who's even better than Ariza.

I could make a HUGE error doing it, but I'd gamble on trading a 2014 pick. Teams like the Celtics when they acquired Garnett and the Lakers, when they acquired Pau, were willing to give up quality picks or young studs to get a player who put them over in the playoffs.

If the Wizards could get a player like Lamarcus Aldridge or Al Horford, there are some deals that IMO would be worth giving up even an Andrew Wiggins. Washington would have to nail their middling draft picks with a lot of value, and they'd have to get a star for years to come, but I think they could trade this pick and not look back if they make the right trade.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

The general consensus seems to be that this is the year that you don't want to give away your 1st round pick. Even further, this is the year that you want to stockpile as many additional 1st round picks as you can.

But I actually think the opposite is true (at least for teams that aren't in the bottom 6 or 7 teams that have a real good shot at drafting a stud in the top 5).

While every other team is overvaluing their own 2014 1st round picks, we need to take advantage of that incorrect valuation. In theory, we should be able to acquire a better player with our likely mid 1st round pick in 2014 than we would have been able to with a mid 1st round pick in a normal draft. I'm not exactly sure who that player might be at the moment, but it's gotta be someone of fairly decent value.

Think of it this way: if I posted in the trade thread a proposal of Ariza for another team's mid 1st round 2014 pick, everyone would say I'm crazy and that no team would give up that much for Ariza. Now think of the inverse scenario. We own a likely mid 1st round pick in 2014, and if we decided to trade it, we would theoretically be able to acquire a player who is at least better than Ariza, who most of us accept is a quality role player. Personally, I'd love to acquire an additional player this year who's even better than Ariza.

Like you mentioned earlier, you haven't watched any of these guys, apart from Wiggins play, so everything you just posted is opinionated. Maybe, the draft experts are right and Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, Parker, Embiid, the Harrison twins, and Smart all turn out to be generational talents. We then would have outsmarted ourselves. Would rather wait for the college season to be halfway done before even contemplating trading the pick.

[rockymac52]

The general consensus seems to be that this is the year that you don't want to give away your 1st round pick. Even further, this is the year that you want to stockpile as many additional 1st round picks as you can.

But I actually think the opposite is true (at least for teams that aren't in the bottom 6 or 7 teams that have a real good shot at drafting a stud in the top 5).

While every other team is overvaluing their own 2014 1st round picks, we need to take advantage of that incorrect valuation. In theory, we should be able to acquire a better player with our likely mid 1st round pick in 2014 than we would have been able to with a mid 1st round pick in a normal draft. I'm not exactly sure who that player might be at the moment, but it's gotta be someone of fairly decent value.

Think of it this way: if I posted in the trade thread a proposal of Ariza for another team's mid 1st round 2014 pick, everyone would say I'm crazy and that no team would give up that much for Ariza. Now think of the inverse scenario. We own a likely mid 1st round pick in 2014, and if we decided to trade it, we would theoretically be able to acquire a player who is at least better than Ariza, who most of us accept is a quality role player. Personally, I'd love to acquire an additional player this year who's even better than Ariza.

Like you mentioned earlier, you haven't watched any of these guys, apart from Wiggins play, so everything you just posted is opinionated. Maybe, the draft experts are right and Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, Parker, Embiid, the Harrison twins, and Smart all turn out to be generational talents. We then would have outsmarted ourselves. Would rather wait for the college season to be halfway done before even contemplating trading the pick.

First of all, I've seen all of their highlight reels, but I don't consider that actually watching them, even though half of the people on this board watch one highlight reel then claim they know how that player plays.

Second, my entire argument was based on the assumption that the experts are right about the top 5 picks or so, and my point still stands even if they all pan out. If they don't end up being as good as advertised, then that only furthers my point.

Third, if you wait until halfway through the college season to decide whether or not to trade the pick, then it will probably already be too late. If we can tell that the draft class isn't as good and deep as it was hyped up to be in January or February, then so can every other NBA team. In order to maximize value in a trade you have to be willing to be proactive instead of reactionary.

Fourth, you just did exactly what I've been talking about with people on this board exaggerating the strength of this draft class. You said: "Maybe, the draft experts are right and Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, Parker, Embiid, the Harrison twins, and Smart all turn out to be generational talents."

Name me one draft expert, or even a knowledgeable fan, that has ever said that Marcus Smart is a generational talent. One of the Harrison twins is ranked 28th right now by ESPN. Guess what? Just because he has a twin who's supposed to be a top ten pick and they both play for Kentucky doesn't mean that he's also an elite talent. I also don't think there's any experts saying that they expect ALL of these top tier prospects to turn out to be stars. It's inevitable that at least a few of them won't pan out, at least not to that extent.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

The general consensus seems to be that this is the year that you don't want to give away your 1st round pick. Even further, this is the year that you want to stockpile as many additional 1st round picks as you can.

But I actually think the opposite is true (at least for teams that aren't in the bottom 6 or 7 teams that have a real good shot at drafting a stud in the top 5).

While every other team is overvaluing their own 2014 1st round picks, we need to take advantage of that incorrect valuation. In theory, we should be able to acquire a better player with our likely mid 1st round pick in 2014 than we would have been able to with a mid 1st round pick in a normal draft. I'm not exactly sure who that player might be at the moment, but it's gotta be someone of fairly decent value.

Think of it this way: if I posted in the trade thread a proposal of Ariza for another team's mid 1st round 2014 pick, everyone would say I'm crazy and that no team would give up that much for Ariza. Now think of the inverse scenario. We own a likely mid 1st round pick in 2014, and if we decided to trade it, we would theoretically be able to acquire a player who is at least better than Ariza, who most of us accept is a quality role player. Personally, I'd love to acquire an additional player this year who's even better than Ariza.

Like you mentioned earlier, you haven't watched any of these guys, apart from Wiggins play, so everything you just posted is opinionated. Maybe, the draft experts are right and Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, Parker, Embiid, the Harrison twins, and Smart all turn out to be generational talents. We then would have outsmarted ourselves. Would rather wait for the college season to be halfway done before even contemplating trading the pick.

First of all, I've seen all of their highlight reels, but I don't consider that actually watching them, even though half of the people on this board watch one highlight reel then claim they know how that player plays.

Second, my entire argument was based on the assumption that the experts are right about the top 5 picks or so, and my point still stands even if they all pan out. If they don't end up being as good as advertised, then that only furthers my point.

Third, if you wait until halfway through the college season to decide whether or not to trade the pick, then it will probably already be too late. If we can tell that the draft class isn't as good and deep as it was hyped up to be in January or February, then so can every other NBA team. In order to maximize value in a trade you have to be willing to be proactive instead of reactionary.

Fourth, you just did exactly what I've been talking about with people on this board exaggerating the strength of this draft class. You said: "Maybe, the draft experts are right and Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, Parker, Embiid, the Harrison twins, and Smart all turn out to be generational talents."

Name me one draft expert, or even a knowledgeable fan, that has ever said that Marcus Smart is a generational talent. One of the Harrison twins is ranked 28th right now by ESPN. Guess what? Just because he has a twin who's supposed to be a top ten pick and they both play for Kentucky doesn't mean that he's also an elite talent. I also don't think there's any experts saying that they expect ALL of these top tier prospects to turn out to be stars. It's inevitable that at least a few of them won't pan out, at least not to that extent.

What I said is they "might" end up being generational talents (or even just allstars), just like everything else you just stated. Not sure what you're arguing about. Even the tenth pick in a deep draft can help us. IMO, trading it before the season even starts (it's the Wizards we're talking about here, could very well start 2-18) is a little shortsighted.

[rockymac52]

If we can get more value than we'd get in a normal year, then we should jump on it.

However, it might be in our best interest to wait a month or so, assuming that we get off to a very slow start again because of injuries and the tough schedule, because then we'll be a lot lower in the standings and teams will perceive our 2014 1st round pick as better than what it might actually end up being at the end of the season.

Not saying the mid 1st round picks won't help us, they absolutely could, even in a weak draft class. Just saying I think our best value play is to trade the pick now while everybody's still gaga over this upcoming draft.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

If we can get more value than we'd get in a normal year, then we should jump on it.

However, it might be in our best interest to wait a month or so, assuming that we get off to a very slow start again because of injuries and the tough schedule, because then we'll be a lot lower in the standings and teams will perceive our 2014 1st round pick as better than what it might actually end up being at the end of the season.

Not saying the mid 1st round picks won't help us, they absolutely could, even in a weak draft class. Just saying I think our best value play is to trade the pick now while everybody's still gaga over this upcoming draft.

I get what you're saying, but I never feel comfortable when the Wizards trade a first round pick...history proves me right lol...and Ernie shouldn't be trading picks anyway...he should be let go after this season.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Will be watching a lot of Kansas games this season...not just for Wiggins, but Embiid could be something special. He's already better offensively than Noel.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCT8dlUXfbQ[/youtube]

[mhd]

Might as well shut this thread down

[sashae]

Ibtl

[mohammed10]

IBTL, post Gortat trade style...

[MJG]

Are people really that confident that we're going to be making the playoffs now?