Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[dobrojim]

ditto what Zonk said -

with Gortat we win 47 games.

[nate33]

I don't understand all the optimism. Before the Okafor injury, most of the predictions were still in the 38-44 range. The problem was our season was dependent on the health of Wall, Beal, Nene and Okafor; and all but Okafor have a relatively poor track record healthwise.

We lost Okafor which looked like it would tank the season, and we have now replaced him with Gortat. What I don't get is why are all the predictions jumping so much? Last year, Gortat wasn't even as good as Okafor. Even if we assume Gortat plays with something approaching his form from 2 years ago, it's still only a modest upgrade over Okafor. We are still a team that is an injury away from mediocrity. If Beal, Nene or Gortat gets hurt, we will suffer. If Wall gets hurt, we are toast.

I'm sticking with 44 wins. When healthy, I think we can play like a 48-50 win team, but I'm expecting injuries to set us back a bit.

[Joe_Wiz]

I need to update based on the trade. As others indicate, whatever its long term consequences, it should increase our wins this year. 48 might be TOO optimistic*, but it gets me on my own line (at least for now), so I'm going with it. My official prediction is now 48-34.

* I actually think we COULD do better, be that would require just about everything going right. My prediction is just based on ALMOST everything going right.

[Zonkerbl]

I don't understand all the optimism. Before the Okafor injury, most of the predictions were still in the 38-44 range. The problem was our season was dependent on the health of Wall, Beal, Nene and Okafor; and all but Okafor have a relatively poor track record healthwise.

We lost Okafor which looked like it would tank the season, and we have now replaced him with Gortat. What I don't get is why are all the predictions jumping so much? Last year, Gortat wasn't even as good as Okafor. Even if we assume Gortat plays with something approaching his form from 2 years ago, it's still only a modest upgrade over Okafor. We are still a team that is an injury away from mediocrity. If Beal, Nene or Gortat gets hurt, we will suffer. If Wall gets hurt, we are toast.

I'm sticking with 44 wins. When healthy, I think we can play like a 48-50 win team, but I'm expecting injuries to set us back a bit.

I had us at 38 wins, assuming Beal missed 20 games or so, Nene missed 30 games or so.

Then Okafor went down, and I thought I had revised my win prediction downward but apparently I never got around to it. I vaguely recall thinking we would be lucky to get 35 wins.

Now we are closer to the season and Beal has been pretty good, so that makes me a tad more optimistic than I was, and we've got Gortat. Gortat obviously isn't going to be the defensive stalwart that Okafor was, but I think as long as he plays smart we'll be ok. And Gortat's a smidge better than Okafor offensively. So I'm back to 38 wins plus another four games of optimism due to Beal. Now, I'm also thinking, Gortat being available right from the beginning of the season might allow us to monitor Nene's minutes, plus Nene looks ok in the preseason, so I'm less worried about lingering health issues from him. So that makes me think well shoot, why can't we play a whole season like we did during that one stretch when we were on a 50 win pace? Why not indeed! 47 wins!

[payitforward]

I've got myself in for 44 wins. Almost put in 48, since it's empty! But that would require many things to break right. Even assuming no major missed minutes by key guys, we could easily top out at 80% of that 48, so really I'm in a 39-48 window. Hence 44 (in the middle).

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
57- deneem4
56 - jeffsays
53 -
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride, , Chocolate City Jordanaire
50 - JWizmentality
49 - AFM, barelyawake, Hands11, nuposse04
48 -
47 - The Consiglieri, TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, FreeBalling, BarnabyJones, Joe_Wiz, dobrojim, willbcocks, DallasShalDune
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae
40 - Zonkerbl, The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, dandridge 10, pancakes3
34 - TGW , verbal8
33 - Closg00
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater, Dat2U
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

Offensive Rating

106 - TwentyOne920
105 - FreeBalling
101 - DCKingsFan

Defensive Rating

104 - TwentyOne920
102 - DCKingsFan has
101 - FreeBalling


Wall Makes the AllStar Squad

Yes - Higga, stevemcqueen1, dangermouse
No - DCKingsfan

[fishercob]

41-41. There will be playoffs, cake, pixels, self-congratulatory blogs, and raised ticket prices.

[JAR69]

45 wins.

[Severn Hoos]

Well, fish is back so I guess I should chime in too...

I'm torn on this one. For one thing, I'm pretty sure I've never underestimated the number of wins since we've been doing predictions (10 years or so?) So while I am thinking that they should win 42-47 games, I assume that I will once again overshoot the mark. Which means I'm inclined to drop to 40 or 41 (hi fish!) or lower.

But then the irrational exuberance overcomes me and I see what Beal did in preseason, and I think about Wall's end of season run, and I picture Gortat & Nene on the front line and Webster/Ariza draining 3s - at least until Ariza is traded for more front court depth. And then I start to dream about 48 or - gasp - 50 wins and think it's really possible!

On top of that, I figure if I'm always going to overshoot the number, then picking low dooms them to go even lower to get under my prediction, so I should go high. You know, for the good of the team.

So I'll go with 45 - matching the high water mark of the EJ-Arenas era. And hope that it is a sign of things to come.

Other random predictions:

Wall makes A-S Game. Plays about 8 minutes and has more TOs than points + assists.
Beal is the best player in the Rookie-Soph game but doesn't get MVP.
Nene misses 2-3 weeks (ugh) around Dec/Jan, which leads to...
Ariza gets traded mid-season for front court help. (Hoping for Ilyasova, but more likely Kendrick Perkins or similar)
One of Singleton or Vesely (probably Jan) actually shows enough promise to make us wish he was back on the team next year. Unfortunately, EG agrees and uses cap space to re-sign him.
Seraphin is a virtual no-show.

And a 1st round loss in 6 games to Indy.

[dckingsfan]

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
57- deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride, Chocolate City Jordanaire
50 - JWizmentality
49 - AFM, barelyawake, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, dobrojim
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, FreeBalling, BarnabyJones, Joe_Wiz, willbcocks, DallasShalDune
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U (in great company), OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

[payitforward]

82 - WizardsWorld, daSwami
57- deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride, Chocolate City Jordanaire
50 - JWizmentality
49 - AFM, barelyawake, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, dobrojim
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, FreeBalling, BarnabyJones, Joe_Wiz, willbcocks, DallasShalDune
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U (in great company), OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

Hey... you knocked me out by copying in an old version of the list! Just added myself back to the 44s.

[BigA]

I said 35 after the Okafor injury. With Gortat, I'm bumping it up to 39. The Wiz have a great shot at the 9th seed now.

[FAH1223]

I said 35 after the Okafor injury. With Gortat, I'm bumping it up to 39. The Wiz have a great shot at the 9th seed now.

And losing that pick

[JonathanJoseph]

37 wins. Wall is not a max player.

[closg00]

I said 35 after the Okafor injury. With Gortat, I'm bumping it up to 39. The Wiz have a great shot at the 9th seed now.

And losing that pick

Being a Wizard fan = Wiz end-up the 9th seed, we lose our 2014 1st round pick who will turn-out to be a stud for PHX, AND Ernie Grunfeld get's a new contract

[bulletproof_32]

37 wins.

I think that will probably allow us to finish right around the 12th worst record in the league and give us a decent shot at holding on to the pick for at least another year.

[rockymac52]

Put me down for 43-39.

[Dat2U]

I said 35 after the Okafor injury. With Gortat, I'm bumping it up to 39. The Wiz have a great shot at the 9th seed now.

And losing that pick

Being a Wizard fan = Wiz end-up the 9th seed, we lose our 2014 1st round pick who will turn-out to be a stud for PHX, AND Ernie Grunfeld get's a new contract

If we miss the playoffs and lose the pic and Grunfeld STILL gets a new contract, I'm officially done.

[dckingsfan]

And losing that pick

Being a Wizard fan = Wiz end-up the 9th seed, we lose our 2014 1st round pick who will turn-out to be a stud for PHX, AND Ernie Grunfeld get's a new contract

If we miss the playoffs and lose the pic and Grunfeld STILL gets a new contract, I'm officially done.

I would be done too - at least until there was a new GM.

[DigitalBullets]

Logged in for the first time in years to post my prediction:

Wiz will get 50 wins this year, I can feel it

[dobrojim]

I'm feeling a little more optimistic - I was at 47 - bump me to 48.