Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[tontoz]

I never gave a second thought to Brown or Marshall. I don't see any need to try to "develop" Vesely or Singleton either. It is wasted energy trying to get blood from a turnip.

[hands11]

[nate33]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

[Wizardspride]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Ugh. I didn't know it was that bad.

[JonathanJoseph]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

And worse, the routine hot finishes that end up being mirages. The Livingston/Mike Miller/Blatche squad that ran the champion Celtics out of their building and got Blatche a big extension.

Last year's hot finish which got Wall a max extension.

The curse of Les Boulez.

[Dark Faze]

He should have been fired the second they decided not to pick up the options on Ves and Singleton

You can't botch an entire draft for a rebuilding team. That draft had starters all over the place between Klay, Kawhi, Vucevic, Faried, Jimmy Butler, Parsons, Shump

And Ernie comes out of it with Shelvin Mack, Vesely, and Singleton.

I don't even blame Ernie. He sucks. Whatever. I blame Ted for being so comfortable with mediocrity. Hell, not even mediocrity, but pure unproven trash results. Mediocrity would be sticking with a coach like Lawrence Frank and an average GM--but we go for F tier at every front office position possible.

[Upper Decker]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

The thing that sucks about this is I haven't cheered for the Wizards to win a game since like 2006. They start off so pathetically that I'm actively rooting for a tank by mid-November.

[stevemcqueen1]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Terrible preparation. Terrible coaching.

[miller31time]

If a builder constructs a skyscraper that keeps collapsing under it's own shaky foundation, at what point do you stop firing the workers and maybe choose a different builder?

[Earth2Ted]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Has to be conditioning. Or lack thereof.

Haven't seen the games this year, but over the last decade- especially early in the year- this team always loses focus and sucks away the game at some point in the second half, down the stretch in the 4th or out of the gate in the 3rd. No one talks about it much, but to me they've always looked like a tired, out of shape team.

The great Celtics and Sixer teams in the 50's and 60's would crush teams the first quarter of the season partly because they busted their tails in the offseason and just outran their opposition. Players that got traded to or signed by the Celtics would find that out in camp vomiting and passing out during drills.

This year, it doesn't help that your power forward, who we are expecting to play at an All Star level like he did the year he got traded for JaVale, can't even get on the court. And you have to replace him with either Booker, Seraphin, or Jan Vesely. Not exactly a recipe for success there.

[Ruzious]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Ugh. I didn't know it was that bad.

They need to evaluate why this is happening, but... my feeling is - it's not significant. A bad team is a bad team is a bad team, and it's going to have many streaks throughout the season that they lose. The WHEN they lose part might not matter.

[closg00]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Has to be conditioning. Or lack thereof.
>snip<

I am trying to piece-together Jay Glassies classic blast at EFG's Wizards organization (The blog piece is no-longer online) Here is part of what he wrote:

Because their president has surrounded them with a complete lack of accountability, a zero emphasis on offseason conditioning, so when they arrive for training camp completely unprepared to play in the most competitive league on Earth, the loss column and their bodies take the toll. They have to play their way into game shape, which takes several months owing to the complete ineptitude of their strength and training and conditioning staff (by the way, the same people that oversaw Gilbert Arenas’ spectacularly failed knee rehabilitation that has ruined his career physically after Ernie Grunfeld gave him $100 million? Those people are still running their strength and conditioning program). They blame injuries every year, the entire nine-year stretch of his tenure, as if it’s just bad luck intervening. It’s not. It’s their lack of institutional effort.

[nate33]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

And worse, the routine hot finishes that end up being mirages. The Livingston/Mike Miller/Blatche squad that ran the champion Celtics out of their building and got Blatche a big extension.

Last year's hot finish which got Wall a max extension.

The curse of Les Boulez.

The numbers here are pretty staggering too.

Over the past 4 seasons:
W-L Record Overall: 98-214 (.314)
W-L in Last 10 games of season: 22-18 (.550)

If you ignore the last 10 "Fools Gold" games of the season, the Wizards have a record of 76-196 (.279), which ranks them as the worst team over that 4 year stretch. That winning percentage would give them the 2nd or 3rd worst record in the league in each of the last 4 seasons. The Wizards don't just suck. They have sustained an unprecedented level of suckiness over 4 years. The 3rd worst team in any single season is better than the Wizards have been for the past 4 seasons combined!

[nate33]

They need to evaluate why this is happening, but... my feeling is - it's not significant. A bad team is a bad team is a bad team, and it's going to have many streaks throughout the season that they lose. The WHEN they lose part might not matter.

Partially true. One would expect a bad team to be bad at the start of the season, but the numbers suggest that they are unusually bad. Looking at the first 25 games of each season (over the past 5 seasons, the Wizards have a total of 26 wins and 101 losses (counting the 2 this year). That's a winning percentage of .204.

To put that in perspective, here are some numbers over the last 5 seasons combined:
Win percentage in first 25 games: .204
Win percentage overall: .297
Win percentage in games 26-82: .340

A win percentage of .204 translates to a 17-win season. In the past 5 seasons combined, only 3 teams have finished with lower win totals.

[Upper Decker]

They need to evaluate why this is happening, but... my feeling is - it's not significant. A bad team is a bad team is a bad team, and it's going to have many streaks throughout the season that they lose. The WHEN they lose part might not matter.

Partially true. One would expect a bad team to be bad at the start of the season, but the numbers suggest that they are unusually bad. Looking at the first 25 games of each season (over the past 5 seasons, the Wizards have a total of 26 wins and 101 losses (counting the 2 this year). That's a winning percentage of .204.

To put that in perspective, here are some numbers over the last 5 seasons combined:
Win percentage in first 25 games: .204
Win percentage overall: .297
Win percentage in games 26-82: .340

A win percentage of .204 translates to a 17-win season. In the past 5 seasons combined, only 3 teams have finished with lower win totals.

So you're saying there's hope for a brighter future...GREAT NEWS!

[payitforward]

Rico, you got to talk to someone about that font! My eyes are still vibrating from reading that.

Agreed -- hard to read.

Alas, it's also a mealy-mouthed, defensive and basically useless string of paragraphs: "I’m not alone in thinking that Washington really could be a playoff team. Sure, there will always be obstacles and unanswered questions with any team and any general manager."

Wow. We "really could be"? I mean we could reach that high? After 4 years of rebuilding, powered by 2 great ping pong ball rolls? Gee, that's great.

And, are there really "unanswered questions" about the good GMs in this league the way there are about Ernie Grunfeld? You have the same kinds of questions about Darryl Morey, Sam Presti, et. al. as you do about a guy w/ EG's record of (non)success? I don't think so.

As to "Whether most of Grunfeld’s decisions over the last decade were reasonable at the time he made them and some just didn’t work out as planned due to injuries or other circumstances, or he is merely a buffoon that has left nothing but squandered assets in his wake, isn’t the point of this post." Right. And the question is why not?

You refer to yourself as an Ernie Grunfeld supporter. Will you for once please explain why? Why are you an Ernie Grunfeld supporter? In this thread, after linking to your article, you can no longer claim that you'd be hijacking a discussion to answer.

Answer. Why?

[payitforward]

Usually a GM doesn't get fired mid-season. ...

No reason to wait that long. Get it done EARLY in the season.

Agreed!

It'd be a good idea to have someone in here able to clean up the organization in time to make deadline trades and get ready to start over.

[payitforward]

If we miss the playoffs, I think Ted will at least replace Wittman. He doesn't have to fire Wittman to make the change, which is the key point.

But I also really don't see Ted going out and spending big money for a big name coach. I think he'd look for another cheap coach.

I hope he's at least more open to trying a younger coach as an alternative.

What the hell does the coach matter? The players matter. The GM chooses the players.

[payitforward]

Here is how the Wizards have started off the season over the past 6 years:

2013: 0-2 and counting.
2012: 0-12 on their way to 4-28.
2011: 0-8 on their way to 2-15.
2010: 0-2 on their way to 6-19.
2009: the last time they won the season opener. Went on to lose 7 of the next 8.
2008: 0-5 on their way to 1-10.

That's a bit ridiculous. How can a team start this slow EVERY SINGLE SEASON.

Ugh. I didn't know it was that bad.

Aw man, that's no big deal. Every team loses most of its games early in the season!

[montestewart]

If we miss the playoffs, I think Ted will at least replace Wittman. He doesn't have to fire Wittman to make the change, which is the key point.

But I also really don't see Ted going out and spending big money for a big name coach. I think he'd look for another cheap coach.

I hope he's at least more open to trying a younger coach as an alternative.

What the hell does the coach matter? The players matter. The GM chooses the players.

True, but I'd like to see the Wizards break their reflexive cycle of retreads with "experience" as both GM and coach. Not prejudiced against older coaches/GMs as much as observing this organization's apparent fear of trying something not yet established (hence EJ fired and Tapscott takes over, etc.) that dates to the Pollin days and really needs to stop.