Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[nate33]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards/washington-wizards-jan-vesely-says-he-has-something-to-prove/2013/11/05/2d0b3f8c-4671-11e3-bf0c-cebf37c6f484_story.html

also from the link above

Feeling buried for much of his time in Washington, Vesely has yet to provide anything on the court close to the amount of excitement he generated on draft night in 2011, when the Wizards took him with the sixth overall pick.

Mike Lee isn't usually this revisionist that I can remember. What excitement?
Not here certainly.

re Booker vs Ves offensively - Neither can shoot from any distance.
Booker can at least back a guy down and even at his short stature
elevate over them for a reasonably accurate jump hook.

Not sure what Ves can do offensively beside receive oops. Maybe
he's better this year than last. It would be difficult not to be at least
a little better.

Booker isn't a horrible shooter either. He's not a good enough shooter for us to structure an offense designed to give him a look from 18 feet, but he's decent enough that the defense has to at least try and rotate over to get a hand in his face.

[dobrojim]

IDK - Book hasn't made a whole lot of jumpers or shots beyond 10 feet this year.
He's a player that opp defenses would generally prefer to have shoot if the
other options are anyone else among our starters. Of course he shoots worse
when his shot is contested but he's still the guy they want shooting.

[TGW]

[My thoughts....why not give it a shot?

This kind of thinking drives me crazy. It reeks of 20/20 hindsight. The implication is that Wittman knew going in that Booker would only be mediocre so he should have played Vesely instead. We only know that after the fact. At the time Randy made his decision to start Booker, Booker was the best player available for the job.

We hear this over and over from this board. When Player X has a bad game, fans scream that coach should have played Player Y. Wittman can't know ahead of time that Player X will play bad. If Wittman does in fact play Player Y and Player Y plays bad, fans will complain that he should have played Player X.

This X 1,000,000

[nate33]

IDK - Book hasn't made a whole lot of jumpers or shots beyond 10 feet this year.
He's a player that opp defenses would generally prefer to have shoot if the
other options are anyone else among our starters. Of course he shoots worse
when his shot is contested but he's still the guy they want shooting.

He shot 38% from 16-23 feet last year. Granted, he usually only shoots when wide open, so that number should be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm not saying Booker is a great shooter. I'm just saying he isn't the absolute zero on offense that Vesely is. Booker shoots rushed 21 footers better than Vesely shoots free throws.

[dobrojim]

I think we'd agree that neither should be counted on for a positive
offensive contribution.

[tontoz]

Bookers defense seems like it has been weak and he has thrown some bad passes but he is still scoring efficiently and rebounding. I would take him easily over Ves.

[LyricalRico]

“The toughest part is I’m not playing. I don’t get a chance,” Vesely said when asked about adjusting to the NBA after arriving from Partizan-Belgrade in Serbia. “Of course, I have something to prove. I have to stay ready, wait for my chance and if I have my chance, to grab it.”

<snip>

At the end of last season, Wittman said Vesely’s greatest obstacle was overcoming a lack of confidence. Wittman hasn’t noticed that same problem, despite Vesely still not playing.

“He’s very good where he’s at. I like where his mind is right now, I really do,” Wittman said. “And him not playing, he’s handled that great and I think that’s a step in the right direction. Last year, there were a lot of young guys in and out of the lineup. That’s hard.”

Read the rest: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

[nate33]

I think we'd agree that neither should be counted on for a positive
offensive contribution.

I wouldn't word it that way. Obviously, neither guy is a go-to offensive player or somebody you would ask to create their own shot on any type of consistent basis. However, I think it's pretty clear that Booker is a much better offensive player than Vesely and is good enough offensively to not drag the team down at that end of the floor. He's an adequate offensive role player. The numbers don't lie. Last year, Booker had an ORtg of 109 on a USG% of 15 while Vesely has an ORtg of 95 despite an anemic USG% of 12.

[nate33]

“He’s very good where he’s at. I like where his mind is right now, I really do,” Wittman said.

Yeah, at the end of the bench.

[Nivek]

...they have Gortat (a pretty average defender who doesn't know their schemes)...

Just heard on the CBS Basketball podcast that the FG% at the rim against Gortat is 71%. For comparison purposes against Hibbert its 22%, for Brook Lopez its 26%. Not all of this falls on Marcin, but dang.

Maybe they read that off my Twitter feed yesterday.

Gortat's been bad defensively this season. He's not usually THIS bad, though.

[Nivek]

It's awfully reductive to blame the team's defense on Booker. They're missing their two most important defenders from last season -- Okafor and Nene. In their place, they have Gortat (a pretty average defender who doesn't know their schemes) and Booker (a meh defender who lacks size and is better suited to a reserve role). Booker is part of the problem on defense, but only part.

The bigger problem with starting Vesely, though, is that he doesn't get to just play defense. The team has to take his offensive deficiencies as well. Vesely can't improve spacing because he can't shoot. The ONLY place he needs to be defended at all is literally under the basket, and if he gets the ball there, the defense can just foul him.

Add in that Booker rebounds better on both ends of the floor, that he turns the ball over less, and that he fouls less, and whatever benefit MIGHT provide on defense goes back to the other team on offense.

Booker ought to be coming off the bench, but not for Vesely. They need to get Nene back and go from there.

Not that I want to be on the side defending Vesely (never a good side to be on), but I think CCJ's point is that he thinks that Vesely will be a better fit with Gortat going forward. Your third paragraph about how Booker is better is based on the past. If Vesely has improved in rebounding, turnovers, fouling, etc, than maybe he could be a better fit going forward.

My thoughts....why not give it a shot?

I understand CCJ's point, but I don't agree.

What would make us think Vesely has improved in rebounding, turnovers, fouling? His rebounding was better in preseason, but he still shot badly, still missed free throws, still fouled too much, still committed lots of turnovers. If you want to use preseason numbers to suggest Vesely has improved, then don't you have to do the same thing with Booker's? (Psst -- Booker's preseason numbers were MUCH better than Vesely's.

Why not give it a shot anyway? Because replacing a guy in the lineup with someone who does basically the same stuff -- but worse -- rarely improves a team.

[WallTown02]

[My thoughts....why not give it a shot?

This kind of thinking drives me crazy. It reeks of 20/20 hindsight. The implication is that Wittman knew going in that Booker would only be mediocre so he should have played Vesely instead. We only know that after the fact. At the time Randy made his decision to start Booker, Booker was the best player available for the job.

We hear this over and over from this board. When Player X has a bad game, fans scream that coach should have played Player Y. Wittman can't know ahead of time that Player X will play bad. If Wittman does in fact play Player Y and Player Y plays bad, fans will complain that he should have played Player X.

Really? Please show me where I said he "should have" played Vesely. Twice in the same post, i said "going forward".

How does "Why not give it a shot?" imply "He was wrong for not playing Vesely".

What drives me crazy is when people give a rude response without reading what was said.

[WallTown02]

It's awfully reductive to blame the team's defense on Booker. They're missing their two most important defenders from last season -- Okafor and Nene. In their place, they have Gortat (a pretty average defender who doesn't know their schemes) and Booker (a meh defender who lacks size and is better suited to a reserve role). Booker is part of the problem on defense, but only part.

The bigger problem with starting Vesely, though, is that he doesn't get to just play defense. The team has to take his offensive deficiencies as well. Vesely can't improve spacing because he can't shoot. The ONLY place he needs to be defended at all is literally under the basket, and if he gets the ball there, the defense can just foul him.

Add in that Booker rebounds better on both ends of the floor, that he turns the ball over less, and that he fouls less, and whatever benefit MIGHT provide on defense goes back to the other team on offense.

Booker ought to be coming off the bench, but not for Vesely. They need to get Nene back and go from there.

Not that I want to be on the side defending Vesely (never a good side to be on), but I think CCJ's point is that he thinks that Vesely will be a better fit with Gortat going forward. Your third paragraph about how Booker is better is based on the past. If Vesely has improved in rebounding, turnovers, fouling, etc, than maybe he could be a better fit going forward.

My thoughts....why not give it a shot?

I understand CCJ's point, but I think he's just plain wrong.

What would make us think Vesely has improved in rebounding, turnovers, fouling? His rebounding was better in preseason, but he still shot badly, still missed free throws, still fouled too much, still committed lots of turnovers. If you want to use preseason numbers to suggest Vesely has improved, then don't you have to do the same thing with Booker's? (Psst -- Booker's preseason numbers were MUCH better than Vesely's.

Why not give it a shot anyway? Because replacing a guy in the lineup with someone who does basically the same stuff -- but worse -- rarely improves a team.

It's possible that if he's improved in certain areas (or is at least closer to booker's level) than maybe his positive contribution to defense (above Booker's) would benefit the team.

[Nivek]

The preseason numbers suggest that Vesely did NOT improved in those areas to anywhere near the level of Booker. The ONLY reason to "try" Vesely as a starter is basically to say "what the heck, we might get lucky."

[WallTown02]

The preseason numbers suggest that Vesely did NOT improved in those areas to anywhere near the level of Booker. The ONLY reason to "try" Vesely as a starter is basically to say "what the heck, we might get lucky."

I don't think it's as black & white as you do. Context matters. Matchups matter. Vesely might seem slightly better next to Gortat because of how their styles of play mesh. Also, Vesely might have a better chance defending a 7-0 player than Booker.

It's possible that if he's improved his rebounding and can play solid D, then he could help the team. It would probably help if he was playing next to a Center that can defend the C's that outweigh Vesely and can contribute on the offensive end.....like Gortat.

Booker might be the better player, but that doesn't guarantee that he's the best fit in a certain lineup.

[Nivek]

It would work something like this -- on defense, Vesely could match up against the PF. Just so long as the PF doesn't have much of a post game and he's not too strong. But, maybe he can help a little on defense.

Now we go to offense. If I'm the opposing coach, I tell my PF to ignore Vesely completely unless he's under the basket. Just camp on the edge of the lane to avoid a defensive 3-second count and be ready to help on penetration. I instruct my team that if Vesely gets the ball near the basket, just foul him. How is this going to help the Wizards on offense?

There's zero difference between Vesely and Booker in transition -- at the combine Booker scored as an athletic freak (terrific leap scores; terrific bench press; terrific lane agility time; a sprint time slightly faster than Wall's).

Vesely's defensive impact would have to be ENORMOUS to offset his other deficiencies. And, there's ZERO evidence to suggest he makes that kind of impact on defense or to suggest that he will.

[Weganator]

I think tonight's game is the kind of game where Jan needs to get some minutes.

Philly has been playing this fast paced, get out and run type of game that fits Jan perfectly. In addition to that, Hawes and Young are both players that Jan can guard.

Hawes, while 7 feet, likes to play away from the basket on offense shooting mid range / 3 pt shots. He isn't going to back down Jan and beat him inside. Hawes playing out above the break would allow Jan to leak out in transition for some easy buckets.

Young is athletic, but smaller at 6'8. Again, not posting Jan up. I think Jan can keep up with him athletically while having a major height advantage vs Young on the boards.

Also, this isn't the type of game to bring Nene back in. If he still has any signs of soreness, the pace of tonight's game is going to aggravate something.

[LyricalRico]

^ Agreed. Let Nene sit and give Jan some minutes tonight.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The preseason numbers suggest that Vesely did NOT improved in those areas to anywhere near the level of Booker. The ONLY reason to "try" Vesely as a starter is basically to say "what the heck, we might get lucky."

Vesely played well in FIBA play, where he went up against Gortat and Marc Gasol, among others. (Okay, JV choked at shooting FTs but otherwise played terrific basketball). The coaching staff also credited Jan for playing well in summer league, better than any other Wizard, arguably.

The reasons for playing Vesely are besides perhaps getting lucky and helping the Wizards, the young player can perhaps raise his trade value. The Wizards foolishly lowered his trade value when they acquired Okafor. They should have traded Vesely that summer IMO. What he was doing before the Wizards acquired Okafor was better. Some people seem to have forgotten. I have not.

Vesely has started and the Wizards have won in the past. He and Seraphin started back then.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... jan-vesely

--From 4/9/2012 to 4/26/2012 he started in games in which the Wizards won 8 of 10 games. They won the last 6 with Booker and Nene both out due to plantar fasciitis.

--Jan Vesely started all 15 April games, and he scored in double figures 7 times. In 28 mins per game he averaged 8.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, only 1.3 turnovers, and 3 PFs. on .551 FG shooting.

--With Vesely starting, the Wizards went 8-7 overall, including the 5 straight losses to start the month. Forget the conjecture. Vesely has started and the Wizards won with less talent than they have now.

What I think Wittman should try is to space the court with shooters Beal and Webster plus Wall. Leave Gortat in the paint to score and allow Vesely to move off the ball, often cutting to the basket. Vesely moves well and finishes in transition. He defends pick and roll far better than Booker. I think he's a good fit with Gortat.

[tontoz]

Vesely is a garbage can. That is why you don't play him.