SAN ANTONIO — It took all of five games of the 2013-14 season to see whether or not head coach Gregg Popovich had been chastened by Game 6 of last season’s Finals.
Despite having been roundly criticized for sitting Tim Duncan on Miami’s last two regulation possessions in that contest, needing just one stop to secure the championship, Popovich went back to the well in Wednesday’s 99-96 victory over Phoenix.
The strategy was as sound then as it was back in June: The opposition was in dire need of a 3, so Popovich elected to sit Duncan in favor of a smaller, more reactive lineup. This time, however, it worked. The Spurs harried Phoenix into a pair of low-percentage attempts, and victory was theirs.
That’s been the outcome far more often than not since last season, when Popovich began using the tactic with increasing regularity. Indeed, until Miami made those two title-shifting 3s in Game 6, the Spurs had been virtually flawless in defending a lead of three points or less with Duncan on the bench.
From my very unofficial gleaning of last season’s play-by-play:
Spurs 108, L.A. Lakers 105
MISS — Kobe Bryant 3-pointer, 3.9 seconds left
MISS — Earl Clark 3-pointer, 1.0 second left
Spurs 92, Dallas 91
MISS — Vince Carter 3-pointer, 1.2 seconds left
Spurs 100, Denver 99
MISS — Andre Miller at the rim, 1.0 second left
Spurs 104, L.A. Clippers 102
MISS — Chris Paul short jumper, 1.2 seconds left
Spurs 129, Golden State 127 (playoffs, 2 OT)
MISS — Stephen Curry 15-foot jumper, 1.8 seconds left (end of regulation)
MAKE — Jarrett Jack layup, 20.8 seconds left (end of OT No. 1)
Golden State 97, Spurs 87 (playoffs)
MISS — Jarrett Jack misses 18-footer (end of regulation)
Spurs 93, Memphis 89 (playoffs, OT)
MISS — Jerryd Bayless 3-pointer, 11.8 seconds left (end of OT)
That’s 1 for 9 overall, and a victory in all seven games when the tactic was deployed. Then, of course, came Game 6, when…well, no need to go romping back through the gory details again, is there?
So, entering last night’s 0-for-2 from the Suns, the unofficial tally stood at:
Leading by three points or less – 2 for 11
Leading by four points or more – 3 for 7, plus 2 free throws
Overall – 5 for 18, plus 2 FTs, for a total of 14 points on 13 possessions (defensive rating: 107.7)
Basketball Reference lists the Spurs with a 101.6 rating during the regular season, while NBA.com had them at 99.2, so that would seem to be a rather dramatic slide. They also gave up five offensive rebounds on the 13 misses, most notably those two huge ones against Miami, for a pretty poor rebounding percentage of just 61.5.
But the microscopic sample skews the results. For example: Exclude a 99-97 victory over the Hawks in which they gave up four points in the final 8.6 seconds while leading by six, and their defensive rating plummets to 90.9. Include only those possessions with a three-point lead or less, it drops even further to 55.5 with opponents shooting just 18 pct.
Focusing on the bigger picture of pure results, this would seem to be a pretty effective tactic for the Spurs — which is why we’ll continue to see it as the season wears on, Game 6 be damned.
http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnatio ... ns-duncan/Popp doesn't seem to think it was a mistake. Numbers seem to support him.
