My new project: top-5 1-year player peaks ever

[Gregoire]

Another interesting thing, which is relevant to the topic: name the players, who can have greatest peak ever or nar it if not some issues ( injuries, conditioning, drugs, accidents, lazyness, attitude, mentality ect);
Obviously some issues were in Wilt and Shaq careers, but its only about careers for them - at their peaks in 67 and 00 respectively they done full throttle and realized their potential at max. That because they had top 2-3 peaks ever. I think we could say these about Walton too, but here injuries may decline his peak a little.
I talk more about the quys like Sampson (injuries), Barkley (conditioning, laziyness), T-Mac (lazy, injuries), Carter (mentality, lazy), Bias (death), Richardson (drugs), Sabonis (injuries), Kemp (mantality, conditioning), Yao (injuries) ect... Its about potential. Have any of these guys case to have greatest peak without issues? Or maybe I didnt mention somabody...

[Gregoire]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9840
Interesting relative stuff...

[Gregoire]

New relevant thread
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1282751&p=37406113#p37406113

[ShaqAttack3234]

Alright, Gregoire, I'll give you a list you can count for now.

1.2000 Shaq
2.1990 Jordan
3.1993 Hakeem
4.1967 Wilt
5.2013 Lebron

1977 Kareem and 1986 just barely missed the list.

[ceiling raiser]

Gregoire - I'm almost done revising my list. Should have it updated in the next couple of days.

[Gregoire]

Alright, Gregoire, I'll give you a list you can count for now.

1.2000 Shaq
2.1990 Jordan
3.1993 Hakeem
4.1967 Wilt
5.2013 Lebron

1977 Kareem and 1986 just barely missed the list.

Thanks a lot! If you will have some changes or explanations - post it here please.

[Gregoire]

Gregoire - I'm almost done revising my list. Should have it updated in the next couple of days.

Im glad to hear ! Waiting of it...

[NO-KG-AI]

:noway: to the people ranking Russell's peak over Wilt's.

Seriously. This is carrying over from the peaks project. It's all just "-10 DRtg! -10 DRtg! Wowwwwww."

That's basically just as bad as RINGZZZ RINGZZZ RINGZZZ.

There is no objective thing to suggest Russell did more things of value on a basketball court in either of '64 or '65 than Wilt did in '67. The numbers don't lie, if you're volume scoring on +14.4 TS%, leading the league in rebounds, and being the point guard for a +7 offense, it's impossible to top that really.

All kind of silly. Why can't he be a lot better defensively than Wilt? To the point where it makes up the difference?

[ceiling raiser]

So I redid all of my survey projects for the 10 players, and completed one for Hakeem. Here are the top offensive/defensive peaks:

Code: Select all

Offense

Value   Season
+6.0   85 Bird
+6.0   86 Bird
+6.0   87 Bird
+6.0   88 Bird
+6.0   89 Jordan
+6.0   90 Jordan
+6.0   91 Jordan
+6.0   92 Jordan
+6.0   00 O’Neal
+6.0   01 O’Neal

Defense

Value   Season
+9.5   64 Russell
+8.0   62 Russell
+8.0   63 Russell
+8.0   65 Russell
+7.5   61 Russell
+7.5   66 Russell
+6.5   69 Russell
+6.5   93 Olajuwon
+6.0   94 Olajuwon
+5.5   64 Chamberlain

I have a total of 7 10.0 SRS seasons (Chamberlain 64,67; Russell 64; O'Neal 00,01; Olajuwon 93,94) at the moment, with Kareem in at +9.0 (LeBron at +8.5, Duncan at +8.0). I feel like there will be other players checking in at +8.0 or greater (Garnett, Walton, Robinson being the most likely candidates) so for now my top 4 are Wilt-Russell-Shaq-Hakeem. No order presently, since nothing separates them aside from stylistic preference.

[Gregoire]

So I redid all of my survey projects for the 10 players, and completed one for Hakeem. Here are the top offensive/defensive peaks:

Code: Select all

Offense

Value   Season
+6.0   85 Bird
+6.0   86 Bird
+6.0   87 Bird
+6.0   88 Bird
+6.0   89 Jordan
+6.0   90 Jordan
+6.0   91 Jordan
+6.0   92 Jordan
+6.0   00 O’Neal
+6.0   01 O’Neal

Defense

Value   Season
+9.5   64 Russell
+8.0   62 Russell
+8.0   63 Russell
+8.0   65 Russell
+7.5   61 Russell
+7.5   66 Russell
+6.5   69 Russell
+6.5   93 Olajuwon
+6.0   94 Olajuwon
+5.5   64 Chamberlain

I have a total of 7 10.0 SRS seasons (Chamberlain 64,67; Russell 64; O'Neal 00,01; Olajuwon 93,94) at the moment, with Kareem in at +9.0 (LeBron at +8.5, Duncan at +8.0). I feel like there will be other players checking in at +8.0 or greater (Garnett, Walton, Robinson being the most likely candidates) so for now my top 4 are Wilt-Russell-Shaq-Hakeem. No order presently, since nothing separates them aside from stylistic preference.

So, you have 4 guys in the number 1 spot without separation?

[Gregoire]

bumb

[Doctor MJ]

Okay, so gun-to-my-head:

1. '91 Jordan
2. '00 Shaq
3. ???? LeBron
4. '67 Wilt
5. '87 Magic

Some comments:

-It might seem odd since I was the one running the prior project that I'm reluctant to make a list, but I struggle for the same reason the project struggled. It's just very difficult.

-It is also very interesting for all of us that we seem better at evaluating career than peak. To me that pretty clearly says that we're more capable when it comes to properly evaluating peak vs longevity than we are to actually measuring player impact. Some of that is in the nature of being analysts - as I always say, we typically have more reasonable opinions of career than do those closer to the NBA. Some of it is in the nature of people in general not really having a grasp on player impact in basketball the way they do in baseball.

-To LeBron, I had him 3rd based on his '09 year, and I find it very difficult to judge that year against his other campaigns. Interestingly though for this very reason, it makes me more impressed with him as a player than I'd be if he just kept banging his head against the wall the same way in Cleveland. The fact that he has adapted is incredibly impressive, and makes it all the more reasonable to consider LeBron currently in the GOAT peak discussion and consider him eventually, likely, in the GOAT overall discussion.

[Doctor MJ]

:noway: to the people ranking Russell's peak over Wilt's.

Seriously. This is carrying over from the peaks project. It's all just "-10 DRtg! -10 DRtg! Wowwwwww."

That's basically just as bad as RINGZZZ RINGZZZ RINGZZZ.

There is no objective thing to suggest Russell did more things of value on a basketball court in either of '64 or '65 than Wilt did in '67. The numbers don't lie, if you're volume scoring on +14.4 TS%, leading the league in rebounds, and being the point guard for a +7 offense, it's impossible to top that really.

So just responding to this now, way after you said it:

Note that I ranked Wilt's peak ahead of Russell's...but I don't grant your assertion of who has a monopoly on objectivity.

For one, the '67 76ers still didn't have an offense as as impressive as the Celtic defense at their best. You might feel like Wilt has the edge based on the two-way-ness of what he did, and I'm inclined to agree with you, but it's really not a given. That offense by definition wasn't all Wilt, and the defense of that team actually played well below capacity - the team's defense improved a good deal the next year after all.

There is to me the other component that's tricky to figure out how to consider for purposes of this debate:

Was the "1 season wonder" of the 76er offense based largely on defenses simply not knowing how to respond to Wilt as a decoy?

We see for example Kobe go through stretches where he looks like an amazing point guard, but part of his success when he does this is without question due to the fact that teams are playing him like he's a shoot-first volume scorer who will shoot the moment you give him even an ounce of space. If Kobe truly adapted permanently to the new role, he'd find that defenses would adapt to him.

And the answer to the question of "how would it ideally shake out?" is always the same: He'd find a balance between the two. Somewhat less scoring and somewhat more passing, which would let him have enough breathing room to take advantage of both skills.

Same holds true of everyone else...including Wilt clearly. And in '67, of the 6 76ers who played major minutes, Wilt shot less per minute than any of them. That is not balance. That's going from one extreme to another, and that's not an ideal.

To some extent this can make you just marvel at what might have been. It's saying quite clearly that however good he was in '67, he could have been much sounder still in his approach.

On the other hand, a more balanced approach is only really necessary when you have defenses who punish four your imbalance. In this case, they were probably rewarding Wilt for his extreme change based on their unwillingness to trust that he'd stay in that box.

Of course he did stay in that box basically for the rest of his career, and really never had that same kind of success again. Yeah there was '72, but that wasn't in him being a pass first floor general, it was with him as an offensive role player - an outstanding one of course, but still, he wasn't the brains of that offense.

Anyway, I basically have major doubts that anyone could go all year in this day and age of modern technology and strategic awareness without teams adapting successfully to such an extreme imbalance.

Well and good to say that something analogous holds true for Russell - he couldn't dominate on defense to such an extreme because of how the rules have change. I don't disagree, and I do factor that in, but I can see someone seeing the instability of Wilt's peak approach as a factor of larger scale to be adjusted for.

[Effercon]

1) Shaq 2000
2) Jordan 1989
3) Hakeem 1994
4) Wilt 1962
5) Oscar 1962
6) Kareem 1971
7) Magic 1982
8) LeBron 2013
9) Duncan 2003
10) Bird 1985

[Gregoire]

Hoping every posters soon to post here and especially guys:
jals
NugzHeat3
Durins Baynes
accrossthecourt
Boarder Patrol
OnePostLegend
Notanoob
PaulieWall
SummitAllstar
Mutnt
The Infamous1

[Quotatious]

OK, you already know my opinion, but I can repeat:

1. Jordan 91
2. Wilt 67
3. Shaq 00
4. LeBron 13
5. Hakeem 94

[Gregoire]

OK, you already know my opinion, but I can repeat:

1. Jordan 91
2. Wilt 67
3. Shaq 00
4. LeBron 13
5. Hakeem 94

very good list... how about 6-10 places?

[NO-KG-AI]

Okay, so gun-to-my-head:

1. '91 Jordan
2. '00 Shaq
3. ???? LeBron
4. '67 Wilt
5. '87 Magic

Some comments:

-It might seem odd since I was the one running the prior project that I'm reluctant to make a list, but I struggle for the same reason the project struggled. It's just very difficult.

-It is also very interesting for all of us that we seem better at evaluating career than peak. To me that pretty clearly says that we're more capable when it comes to properly evaluating peak vs longevity than we are to actually measuring player impact. Some of that is in the nature of being analysts - as I always say, we typically have more reasonable opinions of career than do those closer to the NBA. Some of it is in the nature of people in general not really having a grasp on player impact in basketball the way they do in baseball.

-To LeBron, I had him 3rd based on his '09 year, and I find it very difficult to judge that year against his other campaigns. Interestingly though for this very reason, it makes me more impressed with him as a player than I'd be if he just kept banging his head against the wall the same way in Cleveland. The fact that he has adapted is incredibly impressive, and makes it all the more reasonable to consider LeBron currently in the GOAT peak discussion and consider him eventually, likely, in the GOAT overall discussion.

I still can't see it. LeBron has his GOAT like moments, but he still has more moments where he becomes nearly a non factor, or where he gets stifled enough to force much longer series than Jordan did(by a lot). He's an amazing player, albeit different from Jordan, but I do think he is more prone to being contained, and is slower to adjust when defenses take certain things away from him.

I think to be the GOAT, your impact and resume' has to be just about flawless to rank over Jordan and Russell.

[parapooper]

I still can't see it. LeBron has his GOAT like moments, but he still has more moments where he becomes nearly a non factor, or where he gets stifled enough to force much longer series than Jordan did(by a lot). He's an amazing player, albeit different from Jordan, but I do think he is more prone to being contained, and is slower to adjust when defenses take certain things away from him.

What did Jordan have to adjust to? Wouldn't most of the defenses that LeBron had problems with been illegal in Jordan's day? Weren't the only options back then to play him 1-on-1 or to double-team him and leave someone else wide open because defenders had to stay with one player? Just asking.

[NO-KG-AI]

Teams have basically dared LeBron to shoot jumpers, and it's thrown him totally off for games at a time. People can talk about zone defenses all they want, but zone defenses haven't worked even on LeBron except when he was not being aggressive, and not wanting to shoot. He basically lost against Dallas because of his own play. It happens, plenty of players have had that problem... but Jordan didn't, especially in the finals. The GOAT standard has been set high, you can't slip up as much as LeBron has.