What's wrong with the defense?

[hands11]

As I said before I'm not trying to dissuade you from your beliefs. You're welcome to believe whatever you want using whatever evidence you want. The analysis I did using the data available isn't consistent with the theory you posited, but you're welcome to use different evidence to go on believing.

That said, there are a few things in your post I'd like to respond to...

I was presenting my take on what the problem is and, of course you shoot it down with advanced stats and what not. You can point to Def rating and defensive rebounding as the sole culprit but you didn't really identify the cause of these lulls in effort. I stated that I believe it's the play on offense that affects the mentality on defense. I still do hold to that.

Just to make sure we're speaking the same language, defensive rating is the overall defensive measure (points allowed per 100 possessions). Defensive rebounding is a part of defensive rating. The most important part of defense in the NBA is making the other team miss. I'd refer you back to my first post where I touch on possible reasons why the Wizards are doing a worse job making the other team miss shots this season: a possible strategic change that puts more emphasis on forcing turnovers, losing Okafor, and minutes for Al Harrington.

I didn't go pull up stats from the past 13 seasons to come to my belief, all I have is what I see and have seen in the past. I am talking specifically about the Wizards this season versus the Wizards team of last season. But because you mentioned numbers of the past two seasons and beyond I went back and took a look.

The Wizards were a top ten team in the league last season. Top ten in points in the paint allowed, top ten in opponent shooting %, top ten in opponent 2 point %, top ten in opponent three point %, top ten in points allowed. Many of the teams you mention like NYK, BKN, ATL, etc that fell in the top ten, despite being good at stopping their opponents from scoring, they were not good in every defensive phase as last year's Wizards team was. They may have been good at holding a team to a low 2 point % but were fairly average to bad when it came to defending the perimeter and vice versa. They were not as complete as the Wizards were.

So wait, you're a numbers guy too? Presented all like indisputable facts and everything.

The numbers you've posted are right in line with what I've been talking about -- namely that good defense in the NBA is about making the other team miss shots. You've cited opponent shooting percentage from various places on the floor. That's encapsulated in the 4-factors analysis as efg.

I'm sure you can spin it in a way that falls in line with numbers compiled, but fact is, in the Wizards first game where the team pulled back on the amount of three pointers taken (I do believe a point was made to the team by Wittman to not fall in love with shooting the three), the team had their lowest output of points allowed this season against a very good Spurs team.

Had the Wizards hit their very low mark of 44% on two pointers in that game they win by 3. If they hit their mark of 40% on three pointers, they win by six.

I'm not sure I understand, but I think what you're saying is that in this game against the Spurs, the Wizards had their fewest 3pt attempts (15), AND it was also their best defensive game. Is that an accurate restatement?

If so, have you looked at other game results from this season? For example, in the win against Philadelphia, the Wizards had their highest number of 3pt attempts, and their lowest defensive rating in a very fast-paced game. Their 2nd best defensive game was in the win against Brooklyn -- a game in which the Wizards had 24 3pt attempts. Their best defensive efg this season was against OKC -- where the Wizards had 29 3pt attempts.

That said, while I understand your disdain for numbers, the very small sample size suggests your theory could be at least partly correct. There's a 0.50 correlation between the team's defensive rating game to game and its 3pt attempt rate (3pt attempts divided by FGA). That's not huge, but it's big enough to think that it's possible that the team's defense and it's 3pt attempts could be linked -- if it holds up over a longer stretch of games. My prediction is that it won't hold up -- the correlation in the larger sample I looked at was 0.10.

Then comes the question: What about the offense? The correlation between 3pt attempt rate and offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) is 0.80, suggesting that shooting more threes helps the Wizards on offense to a degree significantly larger than it (theoretically) hurts them on defense.

Interesting subject.

Shooting 3s efficiently ? Can't see how that would hurt a defense. I would think it has more to do with floor balance and who you have out there defending. Also how well you are running your offense first to wear out the defenders to get them to have poor floor balance in transition D. Getting them in foul trouble, etc.

It shouldn't be a surprise if they are playing Maynor and AH together with a 2nd unit without a defensive anchor eraser behind them, that the defense will suffer.

You want better defense, play better defensive line ups and keep the floor balanced on offense...i.e.. run the system and don't shot jack early in the clock outside of it.

[hands11]

As I said before I'm not trying to dissuade you from your beliefs. You're welcome to believe whatever you want using whatever evidence you want. The analysis I did using the data available isn't consistent with the theory you posited, but you're welcome to use different evidence to go on believing.

That said, there are a few things in your post I'd like to respond to...

I was presenting my take on what the problem is and, of course you shoot it down with advanced stats and what not. You can point to Def rating and defensive rebounding as the sole culprit but you didn't really identify the cause of these lulls in effort. I stated that I believe it's the play on offense that affects the mentality on defense. I still do hold to that.

Just to make sure we're speaking the same language, defensive rating is the overall defensive measure (points allowed per 100 possessions). Defensive rebounding is a part of defensive rating. The most important part of defense in the NBA is making the other team miss. I'd refer you back to my first post where I touch on possible reasons why the Wizards are doing a worse job making the other team miss shots this season: a possible strategic change that puts more emphasis on forcing turnovers, losing Okafor, and minutes for Al Harrington.

I didn't go pull up stats from the past 13 seasons to come to my belief, all I have is what I see and have seen in the past. I am talking specifically about the Wizards this season versus the Wizards team of last season. But because you mentioned numbers of the past two seasons and beyond I went back and took a look.

The Wizards were a top ten team in the league last season. Top ten in points in the paint allowed, top ten in opponent shooting %, top ten in opponent 2 point %, top ten in opponent three point %, top ten in points allowed. Many of the teams you mention like NYK, BKN, ATL, etc that fell in the top ten, despite being good at stopping their opponents from scoring, they were not good in every defensive phase as last year's Wizards team was. They may have been good at holding a team to a low 2 point % but were fairly average to bad when it came to defending the perimeter and vice versa. They were not as complete as the Wizards were.

So wait, you're a numbers guy too? Presented all like indisputable facts and everything.

The numbers you've posted are right in line with what I've been talking about -- namely that good defense in the NBA is about making the other team miss shots. You've cited opponent shooting percentage from various places on the floor. That's encapsulated in the 4-factors analysis as efg.

I'm sure you can spin it in a way that falls in line with numbers compiled, but fact is, in the Wizards first game where the team pulled back on the amount of three pointers taken (I do believe a point was made to the team by Wittman to not fall in love with shooting the three), the team had their lowest output of points allowed this season against a very good Spurs team.

Had the Wizards hit their very low mark of 44% on two pointers in that game they win by 3. If they hit their mark of 40% on three pointers, they win by six.

I'm not sure I understand, but I think what you're saying is that in this game against the Spurs, the Wizards had their fewest 3pt attempts (15), AND it was also their best defensive game. Is that an accurate restatement?

If so, have you looked at other game results from this season? For example, in the win against Philadelphia, the Wizards had their highest number of 3pt attempts, and their lowest defensive rating in a very fast-paced game. Their 2nd best defensive game was in the win against Brooklyn -- a game in which the Wizards had 24 3pt attempts. Their best defensive efg this season was against OKC -- where the Wizards had 29 3pt attempts.

That said, while I understand your disdain for numbers, the very small sample size suggests your theory could be at least partly correct. There's a 0.50 correlation between the team's defensive rating game to game and its 3pt attempt rate (3pt attempts divided by FGA). That's not huge, but it's big enough to think that it's possible that the team's defense and it's 3pt attempts could be linked -- if it holds up over a longer stretch of games. My prediction is that it won't hold up -- the correlation in the larger sample I looked at was 0.10.

Then comes the question: What about the offense? The correlation between 3pt attempt rate and offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) is 0.80, suggesting that shooting more threes helps the Wizards on offense to a degree significantly larger than it (theoretically) hurts them on defense.

Interesting subject.

Stats are informative, I look at them, but I don't get lost in them and use them as the basis of all arguments. I did however go back to pull numbers up to view the stats of other teams from past seasons to see how they fit in each argument when you made mention of your data compiled from 13 seasons ago.

That is not what I'm stating, the Spurs shoot around 50% for the season and they did too against the Wizards, just pointing out that the Spurs didn't hit their scoring average of around 100 points, which could be the start of a defensive turnaround for the Wizards.

You don't think there's a relationship between falling in love with the three and being average defensively, I do.

We'll see how things continue to play out.

More Ves, Temple and Glen probably was the cause for that. As was less Maynor and no AH

They actually looked pretty good in the 3rd quarter.

[queridiculo]

Having watched some of the games over again, one thing that stands out to me with respect to the Wizards perimeter defense is how lazy our bigs are on the pick and roll.

You don't ever see our bigs challenging the ball handler on the pick and roll leaving the guards on the perimeter in a pretty untenable situation.

If they fight over the pick they end up trailing the play giving the ball handler a clear lane to the basket. If they go underneath, there's nobody to contest/challenge the open shot.

Describing Washington's approach to pick and roll defense as poor is almost an understatement. It's frightening how easy it is for offenses to break down our defense, and the shooting percentage near the rim are a clear reflection of that.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

So your reasoning is that taking a lot of 3s makes the team soft on defense? If they stop taking so many 3s that will make them more physical on defense?

Wow

They will be sharper, more in tune and tougher on defense...

Based on what? How can shooting a 15 footer make someone more physical on D than shooting a 24 footer?

I am tempted to post this on the general board just for a laugh.

I think it's all about aggression. Get aggressive on offense you'll be aggressive on the defensive end. Get to the free throw line, get physical in the paint. The Wizards perimeter players need to cut down on the amount of three pointers they take and get aggressive. I believe this will work in the WIZARDS favor.

[hands11]

Having watched some of the games over again, one thing that stands out to me with respect to the Wizards perimeter defense is how lazy our bigs are on the pick and roll.

You don't ever see our bigs challenging the ball handler on the pick and roll leaving the guards on the perimeter in a pretty untenable situation.

If they fight over the pick they end up trailing the play giving the ball handler a clear lane to the basket. If they go underneath, there's nobody to contest/challenge the open shot.

Describing Washington's approach to pick and roll defense as poor is almost an understatement. It's frightening how easy it is for offenses to break down our defense, and the shooting percentage near the rim are a clear reflection of that.

You know who is good at playing pick n roll that a big ? Ves

As for shooting 3s not being aggressive. I think you are over simplifying things. If you run an offense like SA where players are moving and the ball is moving toward the basket, if it ends up a 3, that is still strong. Actually it can be back braking because the defense is running all over the play and can't keep up. And when organized like that, the other player should be in place to get back and defense.

If you get the ball up court and us one pick and just launch 3s. That's weaker and eventually you bigs become disinterested. If its a transition 3. That's not weak. That puts a ton of pressure on the other team.

You can't just say its about 3 pt shooting. There is different ways to get 3 ball shots. All are not equal.

[tontoz]

[

I think it's all about aggression. Get aggressive on offense you'll be aggressive on the defensive end. Get to the free throw line, get physical in the paint. The Wizards perimeter players need to cut down on the amount of three pointers they take and get aggressive. I believe this will work in the WIZARDS favor.

So i guess Ron Artest and Bruce Bowen weren't aggressive enough on D because they took a lot of 3s, right?

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

[

I think it's all about aggression. Get aggressive on offense you'll be aggressive on the defensive end. Get to the free throw line, get physical in the paint. The Wizards perimeter players need to cut down on the amount of three pointers they take and get aggressive. I believe this will work in the WIZARDS favor.

So i guess Ron Artest and Bruce Bowen weren't aggressive enough on D because they took a lot of 3s, right?

I'm not saying this is universal law within the basketball world that applies to every team/player. I think when I initially started I was speaking about the Wizards and the current mental makeup of this Wizards team and past Wizards teams', not every other team in the league or player that's ever played. Teams are built differently, the Wizards aren't built like the Spurs and don't run like the Spurs obviously. I'm speaking about this Wizards team full of young players who lose focus easily, and are trying to make the playoffs for the first time as a unit.

The Wizards took significantly fewer 3 point shots against the Spurs and the Spurs were held 7 points under their current scoring average, was that due to a change in what they did on offense. Of course not...is what you say. That's fine. If their play shatters my opinion then so be it.

Bradley Beal's expressed an opinion more than once that he believed failure to produce the way he wanted to offensively affected his play on the defensive end. Do you label him a man full of excuses for offering up his take? This is just my take on this Wizards team. If the team makes a conscientious effort to pass on the three more often and get a basket other ways, such as driving to the basket, I think they stay better engaged in the game and give a better defensive effort. Just my take.

FTR, I've already acknowledged that personnel factors in as well.

You really love emoticons...

[tontoz]

So offensive shot selection only affects defense when you want it to. Gotcha

I am sure the Wizards taking fewer 3s is what caused Duncan to go 1-12 from the field.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

So offensive shot selection only affects defense when you want it to. Gotcha

I am sure the Wizards taking fewer 3s is what caused Duncan to go 1-12 from the field.

Are we done now?

[montestewart]

So offensive shot selection only affects defense when you want it to. Gotcha

I am sure the Wizards taking fewer 3s is what caused Duncan to go 1-12 from the field.

Are we done now?

tontoz' forensic parsing and dissection is top notch. Keeps us all on our toes.

[hands11]

You should always try to get the ball closer to the basket in the beginning of a set. Thats what SA does. If it end up a 3, its because getting the ball closer opened up players on the perimeter. They pass it back out and swing it around for the open look.

As for SA scoring below their average. That happened in the 3rd quarter.

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?id=400488990

Line up was

Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Gortat and that was against SA starters.

Pretty close to our great last year line up except Gortat for Okafor.

Other productive line ups against SA

Wall, Beal, Webster, Trevor A, Gortat
Wall, Beal, Glen, Webster, Gortat

AH has been HORRIBLE DEFENSIVELY ... Sadly, so has Beal.

Actually Al has just been plan horrible.

ORtg 90 DRrg 109 in 130 minutes. PER 7.5 AST% 8.8 USG% 21.6 TRB% 4.3

The guy has been a no defense, no passing, high rate 3 pt shot jacker. And you know his old warn out knees can't get back on defense. I think AH is the problem you are trying to describe.

So we can just call it say... We are cheezing to much.. and everyone should understand the problem.

Cheezing
Defined. When one shot jacks 3 balls at an amazing frequency and can't get their lumbering or broken down ass back to defend. (2) A way to trip your balls off by sniffing cat territory marking urine. see South Park. To cheeze.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

You should away try to get the ball closer to the basket in the beginning of a set. Thats what SA does. If it end up a 3, its because getting the ball closer opened up players on the perimeter. They pass it back out and swing it around for the open look.

As for SA scoring below their average. That happened in the 3rd quarter.

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?id=400488990

Line up was

Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Gortat and that was against SA starters.

Pretty close to our great last year line up except Gortat for Okafor.

Other productive line ups against SA

Wall, Beal, Webster, Trevor A, Gortat
Wall, Beal, Glen, Webster, Gortat

AH has been HORRIBLE DEFENSIVELY ... Sadly, so have Beal.

Actually Al has just been plan horrible.

ORtg 90 DRrg 109 in 130 minutes. PER 7.5 AST% 8.8 USG% 21.6 TRB% 4.3

The guy has been a no defense, no passing, high rate 3 pt shot jacker. And you know his old warn out knees can't get back on defense. I think AH is the problem you are trying to describe.

So we can just call it say... We are cheezing to much.. and everyone should understand the problem.

Cheezing
Defined. When one shot jacks 3 balls at an amazing frequency and can't get their lumbering or broken down ass back to defend. (2) A way to trip your balls off by sniffing cat territory marking urine. see South Park. To cheeze.

Yes and that makes me hopeful that they can get it together. I'm hoping that game was the start of them getting on a defensive upswing.

Every perimeter player just seems to have free rein to put up a three whether wide open or just for a heat check. Not everyone on the team is proficient at hitting the three though currently, those are great individual shooting percentages. I imagined this year's Wizards team resembling the Eastern Conference's version of the Memphis Grizzlies of the past two or three seasons. I feel like the offensive identity has to change somewhat.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

The two stats that really matter defensively are opponent efg and defensive rebounding percentage. Wizards are 28th in opponent efg and tied for 20th in defensive rebounding percentage. In other words, they're terrible so far at making the other team miss shots, and they're below average in getting the ball back after the other team DOES miss.

Strategically, it looks like they're placing a bit more emphasis on forcing turnovers, which doesn't matter nearly as much as making the other team miss.

I agree with fish that the primary difference is losing Okafor. They're also giving significant minutes off the bench to Harrington, who doesn't rebound. Or play defense. Or do much of anything on offense except fire up some threes, miss twos and commit turnovers.

Just wanted to revisit this...

The Wizards as we know are now sitting at .500 and the defense has improved since the start of the season. In the two areas you mention as really mattering defensively the Wizards have improved going from 28th to 26th (opp. EFG) and from 20th to 17th (def. reb%) . Slight jumps of two and three spots, it doesn't seem as though these two stats have factored in greatly during the Wizards defensive improvement.

However, the offense has changed a bit from the start of the season. The Wizards have gone from leading the league in three point attempts to currently sitting in eleventh place in three pointers attempted. The team reduced its overall FG attempts and the defense steadily improved in each game virtually during the shift on offense.

Offense affecting defense?

[hands11]

I would guess more post scoring. How do those numbers compare ?

Also, they stopped playing AH and started playing Ves. That alone would affect the defensive numbers.

AH was terrible.

[dlts20]

well that probably also coincides with the Beal & Harrington injuries who both love to jack up the long ball. Plus Al sucks on D

[tontoz]

The two stats that really matter defensively are opponent efg and defensive rebounding percentage. Wizards are 28th in opponent efg and tied for 20th in defensive rebounding percentage. In other words, they're terrible so far at making the other team miss shots, and they're below average in getting the ball back after the other team DOES miss.

Strategically, it looks like they're placing a bit more emphasis on forcing turnovers, which doesn't matter nearly as much as making the other team miss.

I agree with fish that the primary difference is losing Okafor. They're also giving significant minutes off the bench to Harrington, who doesn't rebound. Or play defense. Or do much of anything on offense except fire up some threes, miss twos and commit turnovers.

Just wanted to revisit this...

The Wizards as we know are now sitting at .500 and the defense has improved since the start of the season. In the two areas you mention as really mattering defensively the Wizards have improved going from 28th to 26th (opp. EFG) and from 20th to 17th (def. reb%) . Slight jumps of two and three spots, it doesn't seem as though these two stats have factored in greatly during the Wizards defensive improvement.

However, the offense has changed a bit from the start of the season. The Wizards have gone from leading the league in three point attempts to currently sitting in eleventh place in three pointers attempted. The team reduced its overall FG attempts and the defense steadily improved in each game virtually during the shift on offense.

Offense affecting defense?

Or maybe they are taking less 3s because Harrington and Beal are out hurt. Ariza missed several games as well.

And the D is getting better because again, Harrington is hurt.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS11.HTM#onoff

Plus Gortat is getting used to the rotations.

[Nivek]

The two stats that really matter defensively are opponent efg and defensive rebounding percentage. Wizards are 28th in opponent efg and tied for 20th in defensive rebounding percentage. In other words, they're terrible so far at making the other team miss shots, and they're below average in getting the ball back after the other team DOES miss.

Strategically, it looks like they're placing a bit more emphasis on forcing turnovers, which doesn't matter nearly as much as making the other team miss.

I agree with fish that the primary difference is losing Okafor. They're also giving significant minutes off the bench to Harrington, who doesn't rebound. Or play defense. Or do much of anything on offense except fire up some threes, miss twos and commit turnovers.

Just wanted to revisit this...

The Wizards as we know are now sitting at .500 and the defense has improved since the start of the season. In the two areas you mention as really mattering defensively the Wizards have improved going from 28th to 26th (opp. EFG) and from 20th to 17th (def. reb%) . Slight jumps of two and three spots, it doesn't seem as though these two stats have factored in greatly during the Wizards defensive improvement.

However, the offense has changed a bit from the start of the season. The Wizards have gone from leading the league in three point attempts to currently sitting in eleventh place in three pointers attempted. The team reduced its overall FG attempts and the defense steadily improved in each game virtually during the shift on offense.

Offense affecting defense?

The data on this remains equivocal. The correlation approach suggests no relationship between 3pt attempts and defensive rating. That doesn't mean there isn't a relationship -- just that it's not showing via correlation.

Since November 13, the Wizards have attempted fewer 3pters (3pt attempt rate dropped from 32% of FGA to 25%), and during that same period they improved in defensive efg and defensive rebounding (also in the free throw part of the four factors).

If I split the team's games in half by defensive rating, the 3pt attempt rate is basically the same in their 10 best defensive games as it is in their 10 worst. If I divide it into above average defense vs. below average defense, I get a 7-13 split (7 better than average defensive games vs. 13 worse than average). In those 7 better than average defensive games, 26.9% of their FGA were 3s vs. 27.5% in their 13 worse-than-average defensive games. That's a difference of 4 3pt attempts -- about six-tenths of a 3pt attempt per game.

It doesn't look like a meaningful difference to me.

[hands11]

We're small and slow...by hands11 on Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:14 am

Heart and fight to do it - Webster with the starters. He is the emotional leader of the team.

And better defenders off the bench. The bench has mostly been AH and Maynor. To Slow and in AH case, old and slow. If they turn to Temple and Ves sprinkled with Glen, the defense will get better and have more consistent energy. Then once Trevor A return, you add a top defender who can shoot the 3 and drive some to the bench. Randy wanted top defensive effect but he turned to two of the worst defensive bench players on the team to provide it and he removed the emotion leader from the starting line up. And he was stuck on stupid to make the adjustment.

So besides them losing Okafor who was their best post defender, it because of the players Randy has chosen to play, the line ups, and the schedule sucked so far.

I expect to see more wins in the near future and better all around basketball played on both ends. I hoped Randy learned from last year but once I saw his approach the first two games, it was clear this was the path things would take. Between failure and forced by injury, eventually he would discover the line ups he should have used from the start. And that's the frustrating part. I expect more from a HC.

Slow Draw Wittman is slowly getting a handle on things. Man did he blow it to start the year. We are so luckly AH we out hurt for so long and Maynor just outright sucked.

That got us Temple over Maynor. TA returned and now we have Booker, Kevin and Ves kicking in.