MVP discussion thread

[kingkirk]

I hear what you're saying and you bring up valid points. But there's more to the game than scoring 30 per. Consider that the Spurs were a missed rebound away from being champs in 2013, and their go-to guy in the playoffs barely averaged more than 20 points a game.

If George can keep up his play and the Pacers match with their smothering defense, they can compete with anyone for the title. Although the Heat's own torrid offensive pace should make them the prohibitive favorites, again.

I get this, and im not saying anyone that averages big buckets means that they have championship written all over them.

I don't think Melo is that at all. Obviously, the game is more than buckets.

What im talking about is ones overall game and level of play. If the Pacers are winning a title, it will need to happen this season or the next. Stephenson expires. David West is getting on, as are Scola & Granger.

The growth needs to come from George and/or Hibbert. PG has certainly improved from last season, but is it enough?

For me, i think he needs to step it up a little bit more and firm himself as a top 3-4 player in this league if the Pacers are to win a title with him as the man.

Perhaps George proves me wrong.

The Spurs are almost the exception because their culture proceeds any talent or basketball shortcomings they may have in comparison to others.

[lorak]

No question he has improved his game, but i still can't help but feel that he needs to go to the next level towards the 25+ PPG on quality efficiency if i'm going to consider him a superstar and a championship level 1st option.

A little bit off topic, but was Pippen a superstar?

[xMADEinDADEx]

Paul George's numbers are not those of someone who deserves an MVP.

They are perfect second option type numbers on a title team but the only reason he is in the discussion is because the Pacers are 10-1 right now.

Paul George is a second option??? So far he is a superstar

To me, he is not a superstar and he is the perfect second option. I'm not convinced that a team lead by Paul George can win a title.

That may change in several seasons time if he continues to develop but he still needs a heap of work on the offensive end before i put him into the superstar bracket.

Lol I've been saying this all along only to get crucified and accused for "trolling" and "targeting" when all I was doing was responding to those who claimed PG was the sole reason for the pacers success which is just silly.


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[kingkirk]

No question he has improved his game, but i still can't help but feel that he needs to go to the next level towards the 25+ PPG on quality efficiency if i'm going to consider him a superstar and a championship level 1st option.

A little bit off topic, but was Pippen a superstar?

He was close. He had superstar seasons but i'm not sure if he had a superstar career.

He was the perfect 2nd option.

[xMADEinDADEx]

Lebron doesn't deserve MVP.
He is on a stacked team and the likes of Beasley etc...are contributing
Paul george is more deserving considering the pacers record or even durant

Lmao.

I'm guessing according to you, beasley's contributions greatly outweighs Hibbert's?
Especially when he has a league leading 4.4 blocks per?


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[xBulletproof]

Paul George is a second option??? So far he is a superstar

To me, he is not a superstar and he is the perfect second option. I'm not convinced that a team lead by Paul George can win a title.

That may change in several seasons time if he continues to develop but he still needs a heap of work on the offensive end before i put him into the superstar bracket.

Lol I've been saying this all along only to get crucified and accused for "trolling" and "targeting" when all I was doing was responding to those who claimed PG was the sole reason for the pacers success which is just silly.

Except nobody said that. You were arguing a point nobody was making. When you make up a stance that nobody has to argue against it's pretty frustrating, hence people reacting. It makes you look pretty irrational when any credit given to Paul immediately registers in your mind as it means they think nobody else on the team contributed.

[mopper8]

Look, let's be real: if your reason for thinking Lebron doesn't deserve the MVP is that his team is stacked, you're either (a) a complete idiot, or (b) should think that Larry Bird didn't deserve any of MVPs, Magic Johnson didn't deserve any of his MVPs, Jordan didn't deserve most or all of his MVPs, Shaq and Kobe didn't deserve their MVPs, Russell didn't deserve at least some of his MVPs, etc. etc.

The MVP has historically come from some of the most loaded teams in the league, and the deepest & most talented teams in league history boast multiple-time MVPs.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I'm not trying to diminish George or trying to put him down for no good reason but if im being honest in where i see him in their NBA landscape, its in the tier below guys like Paul, Durant & James.

Granted, i don't have many guys at that level anymore with Rose being hurt, Wade, Dirk & Kobe getting older and Howard being a mental midget, but at this point, i can't put George in that bracket.

I just personally see him as a great second option on an idea championship team like i do with Harden, Westbrook or Love.

Well, I'm certainly not claiming he is on LeBron's level or Durant's and Paul's. Are you saying those are the ONLY 3 guys that can be a first option on a Championship level team?

[Pacerlive]

I'm not trying to diminish George or trying to put him down for no good reason but if im being honest in where i see him in their NBA landscape, its in the tier below guys like Paul, Durant & James.

Granted, i don't have many guys at that level anymore with Rose being hurt, Wade, Dirk & Kobe getting older and Howard being a mental midget, but at this point, i can't put George in that bracket.

I just personally see him as a great second option on an idea championship team like i do with Harden, Westbrook or Love.

Well, I'm certainly not claiming he is on LeBron's level or Durant's and Paul's. Are you saying those are the ONLY 3 guys that can be a first option on a Championship level team?

I think he is on Durants and Cp3s when you factor in defense but of course who does that on a MB.

[MisterWestside]

Look, let's be real: if your reason for thinking Lebron doesn't deserve the MVP is that his team is stacked, you're either (a) a complete idiot, or (b) should think that Larry Bird didn't deserve any of MVPs, Magic Johnson didn't deserve any of his MVPs, Jordan didn't deserve most or all of his MVPs, Shaq and Kobe didn't deserve their MVPs, Russell didn't deserve at least some of his MVPs, etc. etc.

The MVP has historically come from some of the most loaded teams in the league, and the deepest & most talented teams in league history boast multiple-time MVPs.

I simply take issue with the MVP award itself. The word "value" is a Pandora's box.

[daschysta]

Not a superstar? Agreed. But just because you're not a superstar doesn't mean that you're a second-option. George is currently in the upper-tier of primary offensive players this season (min. 24% usg; 7th in usage, 14th in ORtg). That's someone who can most certainly be the main guy on a team, if you don't already play James or Durant on your roster.

Can he sustain or even build on that? Should be interesting.

When i say he isn't a 1st option, i mean in an ideal world.

To me, and what we've seen from recent NBA champions, George is closer to the second options of teams on current production than he is a 1st option.

He isn't someone who at this point can routinely go off for 30 points a night. His skill set just isn't there yet.

He is the 1st option for the Pacers, so technically he is, but i'm not sure if a team that has George as its 1st option can win a title unless growth is experienced from PG and those around him as the season progresses.

No question he has improved his game, but i still can't help but feel that he needs to go to the next level towards the 25+ PPG on quality efficiency if i'm going to consider him a superstar and a championship level 1st option.

PG certainly can go for 30 any given night. He's the leading 2nd half scorer at about 18 ppg he doesnt even get aggressive most nights until the 3rd quarter.

[Doctor MJ]

Look, let's be real: if your reason for thinking Lebron doesn't deserve the MVP is that his team is stacked, you're either (a) a complete idiot, or (b) should think that Larry Bird didn't deserve any of MVPs, Magic Johnson didn't deserve any of his MVPs, Jordan didn't deserve most or all of his MVPs, Shaq and Kobe didn't deserve their MVPs, Russell didn't deserve at least some of his MVPs, etc. etc.

The MVP has historically come from some of the most loaded teams in the league, and the deepest & most talented teams in league history boast multiple-time MVPs.

Well let's acknowledge the middle ground though. Going back to last year, while LeBron was my resounding MVP by season's end, I had Durant as my #1 a good chunk of the way. And I remember Zach Lowe over a Grantland's take on things while this was the case:

Basically: LeBron James is the best player in the world, and the best player should usually win MVP. When the race for "best" is close, as it is here, there is room to use that amorphous word "valuable" and award MVP to the "second-best" guy if he plays on a roster unusually dependent on his skill set; this is the argument I used in giving my (fake) vote to Dwight Howard over LeBron in 2010-11.

But it doesn't work here. Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are both better players than they were last season, and have proven to be up to assuming portions of Harden's burden. Kevin Martin has been ultraefficient as a legit Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Given some injury nicks to Battier and Dwyane Wade, and Miami's thin bench, it's hard to see much difference in roster quality after the alpha dogs.

James is still the league's MVP.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/880 ... son-awards

Love Lowe, and he's entitled to his opinion and philosophy, but there are other philosophies as well.

As someone who uses a lot of +/- data, for a good chunk of the year, Durant's lead by any +/- metric over LeBron was major. To me that's real, and there's nothing you can do to argue it away using statements of LeBron's skillset and talk of Durant's improved teammates.

Point being: While I'm fine to cut some slack from a pure value-added perspective to a player I already know to be outstanding playing on an outstanding team, i.e. I'll try to give the "best player" a bit of a boost in MVP discussions, every year is a new one.

Were we simply to repeat last year but have Miami not turn on God mode for a good chunk of the year, I'd fully expect LeBron to not have my vote - not because he'd be unworthy, but because there was still room to beat him given that level of performance and one player capable of doing it.

[SideshowBob]

As someone who uses a lot of +/- data, for a good chunk of the year, Durant's lead by any +/- metric over LeBron was major. To me that's real, and there's nothing you can do to argue it away using statements of LeBron's skillset and talk of Durant's improved teammates.

This isn't true. Durant's lead was in raw +/- only,. The only actual improvement I saw in James in the 2nd half of the season was that he shot better from mid-range. We didn't have any proper RAPM available outside of mystic's own data, which he didn't release, but by which James was leading early on, and by which Paul lead as well. All of the box-score and blended metrics (xRAPM, ASPM, IPV, etc.) had James with a comfortable lead, early and late, which is even more telling, as Durant draws more of his impact through his box-score contributions than James does anyway.

[kingkirk]

Well, I'm certainly not claiming he is on LeBron's level or Durant's and Paul's. Are you saying those are the ONLY 3 guys that can be a first option on a Championship level team?

What i'm saying is that when i look at the NBA landscape at this point, given the dominance of Durant and Lebron, i'm having a tough time believing that anyone can unsettle these 2 and take a title off them in the coming years unless that player raises their game.

Using Dirk as an example, his play in the playoffs went to a completely different level, one that even surpassed his usual great play.

Maybe George can do a Dirk impression and go nuts for 29 8 & 6 in the finals? Until he does though, i still think he needs to prove that he can take another step.

If guys like Harden, George etc go to a finals series playing at their current level, i can't back them in to beat one of Lebron or Durant.

I know someone will raise the Spurs as an example, but they're not normal. They're the exception.

[MisterWestside]

This isn't true. Durant's lead was in raw +/- only,. The only actual improvement I saw in James in the 2nd half of the season was that he shot better from mid-range. We didn't have any proper RAPM available outside of mystic's own data, which he didn't release, but by which James was leading early on, and by which Paul lead as well. All of the box-score and blended metrics (xRAPM, ASPM, IPV, etc.) had James with a comfortable lead, early and late, which is even more telling, as Durant draws more of his impact through his box-score contributions than James does anyway.

Yes. Raw +/-, while useful, has a bunch of issues. Even when using the most robust of the hybrid basketball metrics (xRAPM), one must tread lightly. These metrics simply measure value; one still has to put the numbers in their approriate context (especially with regards to team dynamics).

I previously argued that Durant's jump in the raw +/- had partly to do with how OKC built their team compared to the previous season. I've slammed Presti for his moves before, but the off-ball Martin was the perfect fit for Durant's (and Westbrook's) talents and OKC's simple offensive sets. Now, when Westbrook was injured in the playoffs and OKC played a smart defensive team in Memphis, they were taken to the woodshed for their roster moves because Martin didn't punish the Grizzles for doubling Durant and OKC lacked another playmaker for their offense. But for the regular season their best lineups were clicking on all cylinders, and they also used the hell of out them.

The Heat? They started their season slow. They acquired Allen for what they wanted to do with their small-ball offense, but the role players didn't provide reliable complementary support for the Big 3 until their winning streak, especially Battier, Chalmers, Haslem, and even Cole. Plus Andersen provided a new dimension for the team (high-energy big with valuable low-usage offensive skills) that they previously lacked.

[SideshowBob]

Snip

What are your thoughts on Durant's progression in the last 3 seasons (obviously small sample for the current year)?

I don't know if I've seen any dramatic improvements in what he actually is as a player, granted I think he was transcendent already back in 2012, as opposed to making the jump last year. Some role shifts? Certainly. A better fitting offensive system last season? Sure, at least until Westbrook went down. I definitely see improved passing, he's gotten much better at finding the open man, but not improved creation/playmaking. That's not to say he doesn't create opportunities, but not in the realm of what his assist figures would indicate, though he's certainly taking a more active on-ball role than before. He's certainly gotten better at getting to the line, no doubts there, and I think he's improved as a finisher. Also gotten a lot more aggressive and effective at getting to his spots on the floor, something that was clearly a problem against elite defenses back in say, 2010, to less of an extent in 2011.

Defensively, he's gotten better at using his length to deter shots, lateral/perimeter awareness seems improved (which is to be expected with experience), and he's good at giving guys fits in isolation with his size and relative quickness/mobility for a guy with that size, which means he requires less help, and in turn, less easy opportunities created for opponent offenses.

All that said, I think he's just a more refined version of what he was in 2012 (which TBF was close to all time great for all non-Jordan/James/Bird wings already), but I don't think he's made some major leap since then.

Again, what are your thoughts?

[mademan]

Well, I'm certainly not claiming he is on LeBron's level or Durant's and Paul's. Are you saying those are the ONLY 3 guys that can be a first option on a Championship level team?

What i'm saying is that when i look at the NBA landscape at this point, given the dominance of Durant and Lebron, i'm having a tough time believing that anyone can unsettle these 2 and take a title off them in the coming years unless that player raises their game.

Using Dirk as an example, his play in the playoffs went to a completely different level, one that even surpassed his usual great play.

Maybe George can do a Dirk impression and go nuts for 29 8 & 6 in the finals? Until he does though, i still think he needs to prove that he can take another step.

If guys like Harden, George etc go to a finals series playing at their current level, i can't back them in to beat one of Lebron or Durant.

I know someone will raise the Spurs as an example, but they're not normal. They're the exception.

Meh...George wasn't anything special last year, and they still could've won. Lebron played amazingly well (or as well as you could against the best defensive team), but they limited everyone else and Hibbert destroyed them. They can beat the Heat with George averaging 22 ppg on mediocre efficiency if Hibbert turns into the Russell/Wilt hybrid he was last year.

[kingkirk]

Meh...George wasn't anything special last year, and they still could've won. Lebron played amazingly well (or as well as you could against the best defensive team), but they limited everyone else and Hibbert destroyed them. They can beat the Heat with George averaging 22 ppg on mediocre efficiency if Hibbert turns into the Russell/Wilt hybrid he was last year.

Lebron played well against the Pacers?

I thought he was far from his best. He took over in certain moments but in the full 48 minutes, i didn't think he was anywhere near his best.

I'm not going to assume he repeats that.

[Doctor MJ]

As someone who uses a lot of +/- data, for a good chunk of the year, Durant's lead by any +/- metric over LeBron was major. To me that's real, and there's nothing you can do to argue it away using statements of LeBron's skillset and talk of Durant's improved teammates.

This isn't true. Durant's lead was in raw +/- only,. The only actual improvement I saw in James in the 2nd half of the season was that he shot better from mid-range. We didn't have any proper RAPM available outside of mystic's own data, which he didn't release, but by which James was leading early on, and by which Paul lead as well. All of the box-score and blended metrics (xRAPM, ASPM, IPV, etc.) had James with a comfortable lead, early and late, which is even more telling, as Durant draws more of his impact through his box-score contributions than James does anyway.

Okay fair enough. We lost some valuable +/- sources last year, so to the extent I'm implying a saw them all and know they rated Durant higher, I'm wrong.

You're statements about what's telling though make assumptions I don't agree with.

First, as you mentioned, all those are blended metrics. So they aren't giving us an unbiased +/- assessment.
Second, APM stats such as they currently exist out on the internet are typically using priors which penalize a player making a leap in the current year.

Finally, to the notion that Durant is better represented by the box score than LeBron, I don't agree with that as a rule. Off ball players are underrated by box score stats relative to on ball players. A player like LeBron is much better suited to rack up stats in every column than Durant, and while this in some ways makes him a better player than Durant, it does not guarantee superior impact.

In years prior to last year, LeBron was inarguably superior to Durant by whatever metric you looked at. And as noted, by year's end, I sided with LeBron once again. However, for the first half or so of last season Durant had a raw +/- head and shoulders above LeBron, and also head and shoulders beyond he personally had ever done before. Hence, the most anyone can possibly say Durant regarding those stats is that it would be foolish to assume that Durant was NOT more valuable than LeBron.

You want to question me for essentially assuming the opposite that's fine, but I've been around these stats a lot and think I have a pretty good feel for them. I would not have made the statement if the numbers themselves were not so extreme.

[Doctor MJ]

Yes. Raw +/-, while useful, has a bunch of issues. Even when using the most robust of the hybrid basketball metrics (xRAPM), one must tread lightly. These metrics simply measure value; one still has to put the numbers in their approriate context (especially with regards to team dynamics).

While I'm all for applying appropriate context, it should be noted we're in the context of a most VALUABLE player thread so metrics that "simply measure value" would seem quite valuable here.

I previously argued that Durant's jump in the raw +/- had partly to do with how OKC built their team compared to the previous season. I've slammed Presti for his moves before, but the off-ball Martin was the perfect fit for Durant's (and Westbrook's) talents and OKC's simple offensive sets. Now, when Westbrook was injured in the playoffs and OKC played a smart defensive team in Memphis, they were taken to the woodshed for their roster moves because Martin didn't punish the Grizzles for doubling Durant and OKC lacked another playmaker for their offense. But for the regular season their best lineups were clicking on all cylinders, and they also used the hell of out them.

All good points. OKC always seems to have the issue that they aren't proactively optimizing their schemes. Something happens and then they come up with a Plan B, and they are working with such talent it still often looks great, but if they had a really top notch coach given carte blanche, I still feel like they'd have been able to make their Big 3 do unreal things together. Instead, Durant took a leap forward in value in no small part because the team just became more dependent on him after they downgraded the supporting talent.

The Heat? They started their season slow. They acquired Allen for what they wanted to do with their small-ball offense, but the role players didn't provide reliable complementary support for the Big 3 until their winning streak, especially Battier, Chalmers, Haslem, and even Cole. Plus Andersen provided a new dimension for the team (high-energy big with valuable low-usage offensive skills) that they previously lacked.

All true and reason to emphasize that a player temporarily becoming less successful in adding value is not necessarily damning to him...but it's still relevant to an MVP discussion.