Joel Embiid

[CBB_Fan]

Assuming he leaves after one year (he may not) where would you take Embiid? He has often been compared to a young Olajuwon with his background, frame, quick learning, and skillset. His numbers actually compare favorably to Olajuwon's first year of playing (he redshirted his freshman year).

EDIT: Comparing first year Embiid to first year Olajuwon:

Joel Embiid: 9 PPG (69.2% FG, 56.3% FT), 8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1 BPG
Hakeem Olajuwon: 8.3 PPG (60.7% FG, 56.3% FT), 6.2 PPG, .4 APG, 2.5 BPG

Pros:
Potentially highest ceiling in the draft of any player (if Embiid = Olajuwon, Wiggins = TMac, Randle = Webber, Parker = Carmelo)
Developing very quickly
Ideal frame for NBA center
Good athleticism, footwork, coordination

Cons:
Very raw
Not overwhelming college production
Least likely "huge potential" player to reach ceiling

[CBB_Fan]

Embiid videos:

High school:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCT8dlUXfbQ[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBwSvIOOzMo[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0nxBm5TaI0[/youtube]

College:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1lgI-8np7w[/youtube]

[noobcake]

PSA: Stop comparing Wiggins to LeBron. He doesn't have the handles or vision.

Wiggin's ceiling is a Dr. J, or superior mix of Deng and Gay.

[OleSchool]

Assuming he leaves after one year (he may not) where would you take Embiid? He has often been compared to a young Olajuwon with his background, frame, quick learning, and skillset. His numbers actually compare favorably to Olajuwon's first year of playing (he redshirted his freshman year).

EDIT: Comparing first year Embiid to first year Olajuwon:

Joel Embiid: 9 PPG (69.2% FG, 56.3% FT), 8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1 BPG
Hakeem Olajuwon: 8.3 PPG (60.7% FG, 56.3% FT), 6.2 PPG, .4 APG, 2.5 BPG

Pros:
Potentially highest ceiling in the draft of any player (if Embiid = Olajuwon, Wiggins = TMac, Randle = Webber, Parker = Carmelo)
Developing very quickly
Ideal frame for NBA center
Good athleticism, footwork, coordination

Cons:
Very raw
Not overwhelming college production
Least likely "huge potential" player to reach ceiling

Tough to say, very talented but needs to be brought about slowly to maximize his potential, I can see anywhere from 4 to 6. Unless he has an unreal workout then can see him going as high as 2

[CBB_Fan]

PSA: Stop comparing Wiggins to LeBron. He doesn't have the handles or vision.

Wiggin's ceiling is a Dr. J, or superior mix of Deng and Gay.

Not sure why you posted this. I compared Wiggins to TMac, not Lebron.

[Bubstubbler]

Barring major injury, I'd take Embiid 1st overall. I know it sounds odd (mainly due to the massive attention given to the other elite prospects and their early college successes), but I expect it to be a widely held view by the time the draft rolls around. He's a better prospect than pre-draft Oden was, and will end up being the most important NBA player taken in this draft. (By "most important" I mean he'll have a greater impact toward winning NBA titles than anyone else in this draft class.)

I disagree with labeling him "Least likely "huge potential" player to reach ceiling." I think the opposite is true: due to his mental makeup, work habits, strong achiever family (dad is a colonel), demonstrated steep learning curve, and translatable physical competitive advantages, I think he's the most likely to achieve his HOF potential.

It's really important to stress that Embiid is not the typical BBall jock. Let's face it, most elite prospects are not gifted intellects committed to embodying intelligent play: even the guys with highish IQ's tend to be mentally lazy, cloudy in their thinking, and uncommitted to religiously/militantly doing things the right way (where 'right way' means the way that maximizes one's odds of winning). There's a refreshing no-nonsense air about Embiid, however, that reminds one of the GOAT centers of the past who valued intelligence and wielded it as a weapon (guys like Russell, Wilt, Hakeem, Walton, Kareem).

Wiggins strikes me as a far bigger injury risk than Embiid---as soon as Wiggins gets a few injuries, his athleticism will fall back to earth...and then what? His athletic advantage is the source of all of his on-court dominance, and he'll be a shell of himself without it. If Embiid slows down a bit, he could still be 1st team all-nba because very little of his game is based on elite quickness.

Randle has limited length and is going to find it much more challenging to score often and efficiently against longer more athletic NBA defenders. Parker is in a similar boat with a lack of athleticism. They'll both probably be frequent all-stars, but they'll also be mediocre defenders, and that makes them less important than a center with elite 2-way abilities. Guys like Hakeem and Duncan are just far more valuable toward winning championships than guys like Z-Bo and Melo.

Smart is 10 times the player Billups was in college, and has the potential to be a vastly better pro, too. He seems to have an exceptionally strong will and mind to go along with a robust, injury-resistant body. I think he'll end up as a mix of the prime versions of Arenas, Billups, and Wade. I'd be very tempted to take Smart #2 ahead of Parker/Randle/Exum. He's got great 2-way potential (3-way if you count leadership) and imo has a great chance of being the best overall guard in the NBA in 3 or 4 years.

[Big_C_KU]

Embiid keeps showing improvement and something new each game. Against Duke he showed the passing skills in a halfcourt set to get himself 5 assists. Against Iona he flashed the offensive skill that is far advanced for a player who has only been playing for 3 years. Against Towson he showed the shot blocking every one knows is there with incredible outlet passes all game something centers should be able to do well. Also a controlled offensive game again although no jaw dropping plays liked against Ions. If he continues to improve at the rate he's improved the last few years and so far this year then Embiid will put himself in the discussion for top 3. NBA gms will have a tough time passing on a 7-footer with his length and size, skill set, and potential. Self and everyone have said Embiid is a sponge soaking all the info he can from coaches and fellow teammates. A big reason he's improved as quickly as he has.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[OleSchool]

Barring major injury, I'd take Embiid 1st overall. I know it sounds odd (mainly due to the massive attention given to the other elite prospects and their early college successes), but I expect it to be a widely held view by the time the draft rolls around. He's a better prospect than pre-draft Oden was, and will end up being the most important NBA player taken in this draft. (By "most important" I mean he'll have a greater impact toward winning NBA titles than anyone else in this draft class.)

I disagree with labeling him "Least likely "huge potential" player to reach ceiling." I think the opposite is true: due to his mental makeup, work habits, strong achiever family (dad is a colonel), demonstrated steep learning curve, and translatable physical competitive advantages, I think he's the most likely to achieve his HOF potential.

It's really important to stress that Embiid is not the typical BBall jock. Let's face it, most elite prospects are not gifted intellects committed to embodying intelligent play: even the guys with highish IQ's tend to be mentally lazy, cloudy in their thinking, and uncommitted to religiously/militantly doing things the right way (where 'right way' means the way that maximizes one's odds of winning). There's a refreshing no-nonsense air about Embiid, however, that reminds one of the GOAT centers of the past who valued intelligence and wielded it as a weapon (guys like Russell, Wilt, Hakeem, Walton, Kareem).

Wiggins strikes me as a far bigger injury risk than Embiid---as soon as Wiggins gets a few injuries, his athleticism will fall back to earth...and then what? His athletic advantage is the source of all of his on-court dominance, and he'll be a shell of himself without it. If Embiid slows down a bit, he could still be 1st team all-nba because very little of his game is based on elite quickness.

Randle has limited length and is going to find it much more challenging to score often and efficiently against longer more athletic NBA defenders. Parker is in a similar boat with a lack of athleticism. They'll both probably be frequent all-stars, but they'll also be mediocre defenders, and that makes them less important than a center with elite 2-way abilities. Guys like Hakeem and Duncan are just far more valuable toward winning championships than guys like Z-Bo and Melo.

Smart is 10 times the player Billups was in college, and has the potential to be a vastly better pro, too. He seems to have an exceptionally strong will and mind to go along with a robust, injury-resistant body. I think he'll end up as a mix of the prime versions of Arenas, Billups, and Wade. I'd be very tempted to take Smart #2 ahead of Parker/Randle/Exum. He's got great 2-way potential (3-way if you count leadership) and imo has a great chance of being the best overall guard in the NBA in 3 or 4 years.

The old adage, always take a Center over a Wing. I can see Embiid getting into the top 3. I just think there would be too much pressure on a GM to pass over the big 3, especially Wiggins.

The other problem with taking Embiid 1st, is the fact he is extremely raw and really needs to go to a team with a good player development, like the Spurs in order to reach his potential. I do agree that if developed right he could be the best player in this draft. However, some team will draft him and throw him out there without much development.

I completely agree with your take on Smart.

[CBB_Fan]

Barring major injury, I'd take Embiid 1st overall. I know it sounds odd (mainly due to the massive attention given to the other elite prospects and their early college successes), but I expect it to be a widely held view by the time the draft rolls around. He's a better prospect than pre-draft Oden was, and will end up being the most important NBA player taken in this draft. (By "most important" I mean he'll have a greater impact toward winning NBA titles than anyone else in this draft class.)

I disagree with labeling him "Least likely "huge potential" player to reach ceiling." I think the opposite is true: due to his mental makeup, work habits, strong achiever family (dad is a colonel), demonstrated steep learning curve, and translatable physical competitive advantages, I think he's the most likely to achieve his HOF potential.

It's really important to stress that Embiid is not the typical BBall jock. Let's face it, most elite prospects are not gifted intellects committed to embodying intelligent play: even the guys with highish IQ's tend to be mentally lazy, cloudy in their thinking, and uncommitted to religiously/militantly doing things the right way (where 'right way' means the way that maximizes one's odds of winning). There's a refreshing no-nonsense air about Embiid, however, that reminds one of the GOAT centers of the past who valued intelligence and wielded it as a weapon (guys like Russell, Wilt, Hakeem, Walton, Kareem).

Wiggins strikes me as a far bigger injury risk than Embiid---as soon as Wiggins gets a few injuries, his athleticism will fall back to earth...and then what? His athletic advantage is the source of all of his on-court dominance, and he'll be a shell of himself without it. If Embiid slows down a bit, he could still be 1st team all-nba because very little of his game is based on elite quickness.

Randle has limited length and is going to find it much more challenging to score often and efficiently against longer more athletic NBA defenders. Parker is in a similar boat with a lack of athleticism. They'll both probably be frequent all-stars, but they'll also be mediocre defenders, and that makes them less important than a center with elite 2-way abilities. Guys like Hakeem and Duncan are just far more valuable toward winning championships than guys like Z-Bo and Melo.

Smart is 10 times the player Billups was in college, and has the potential to be a vastly better pro, too. He seems to have an exceptionally strong will and mind to go along with a robust, injury-resistant body. I think he'll end up as a mix of the prime versions of Arenas, Billups, and Wade. I'd be very tempted to take Smart #2 ahead of Parker/Randle/Exum. He's got great 2-way potential (3-way if you count leadership) and imo has a great chance of being the best overall guard in the NBA in 3 or 4 years.

I agree that so far the most promising trait Embiid has shown hasn't been his size or coordination but his mental focus on the court. He shows a tremendous ability to impact the game with his decisions in KU's latest game against Towson.

Looking just at the box score, you'd think Embiid had a good but not great game (8 points on 4-5 shooting, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks). But in reality he was personally responsible for an 18-point KU run to end the first half, and all he needed to do was throw quick outlet passes. Several times in a row Towson would miss a shot and KU would score in just a couple of seconds as Embiid tossed the ball down the court like an outfielder throwing to home (or in soccer, a midfielder kicking the ball out into open space to set up a goal).

None of those outlet passes were counted as an assist, and they are completely absent from the stat sheet. And yet Embiid is willing to throw them every time he sees an advantage down the court. This is what he is like in just his fourth college game after playing for three years. He's capable of making really intelligent decisions even when they don't "count" on his statsheet, and it is hard to imagine what he'll look like when he is a seasoned NBA veteran.

That was somewhat what I was alluding to when I said Embiid was the least likely to reach his full potential. I think he's farther from ceiling than Wiggins, Parker, or Randle. I'd include Exum and Smart with those players but I feel it is much harder to carve out a spot as a point guard with the young talent at that position (and I haven't seen Exum enough to make a qualified guess as to his potential).

Overall, I think I'm started to lean towards picking Embiid up at the top of the draft as well (if not 1st, top 4). It would be hard to design a better center prospect than Embiid, with his combination of physical and mental traits.

While I still love Parker's pure basketball skill, Randle's overpowering dunks, and Wiggins quickness those quick outlet passes of Embiid were probably the most impressive thing I've seen from the college game this year. Not just because they were difficult, but because a "raw" guy like Embiid knew to look for them and made the decision to throw them when most NBA centers wouldn't have seen the opportunity. And even if they saw it, they wouldn't take it because those passes don't show up in the statsheet unless they mess up and become a TO.

I get that he is "raw." But for him that is almost a positive. He is just so advanced in some many aspects. His passing (both the outlet passes and into the posts) is terrific. Textbook double-teaming the ball-handler, high level footwork, impeccable touch around the rim. It is true that he doesn't quite understand when and how to use his skills, but he does have them.

It will be interesting to see if he gets some of that personalized Olajuwon training. Unlike, say, Dwight Howard he has the potential to really benefit from that type of one-on-one training. He's also one of very few players with the ability to take advantage of Hakeem's moves.

[MalonesElbows]

You couldn't really fault a GM for taking Embiid 1st. The potential is the best two way big man in the NBA. For anyone that calls him "raw", please actually define that term before using it, and you'll find Embiid doesn't qualify for it.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think saying Parker's ceiling is Carmelo Anthony is pretty insulting.

[Bubstubbler]

Big_C_KU great to point out the "controlled offensive game" aspect. It's amazing how under control he plays. It's like he's immune to spazzing and mind racing. So calm and comfortable already. Always thinking ahead. And those incredible outlet passes!

CBB, great points all the way around. You and I are seeing things the same way. Embiid may be the best QB enrolled at KU right now. Great thought about Hakeem's training, I totally agree that Embiid will soak that teaching in and make great use of it. It will be nice to see a big finally make real use of what Hakeem has to offer.

Agree MalonesElbows, while Embiid certainly lacks the polish of his future prime self, he isn't raw in the 'still mostly just a pure athlete' sense used to describe guys like Drummond. He's far from devoid of skill. Sometimes Wiggins actually looks more "raw" in that sense than Embiid.

[Blast Tyrant]

I think saying Parker's ceiling is Carmelo Anthony is pretty insulting.

Hahaha good one. Last years scoring champ isn't high enough praise. In other news Jennifer Aniston has never been attractive.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think saying Parker's ceiling is Carmelo Anthony is pretty insulting.

Hahaha good one. Last years scoring champ isn't high enough praise. In other news Jennifer Aniston has never been attractive.

The fact that you mentioned a meaningless accolade like scoring champ says enough about Carmelo.

[Talent Chaser]

I can't believe you guys are seriously considering taking him over Randle, Wiggins, or Parker. The GM would get slammed if Embiid wasn't producing right away and those guys looked like all-stars early on, this would also shatter Embiid's confidence.

[CBB_Fan]

I can't believe you guys are seriously considering taking him over Randle, Wiggins, or Parker. The GM would get slammed if Embiid wasn't producing right away and those guys looked like all-stars early on, this would also shatter Embiid's confidence.

I haven't convinced myself to put him in the top 3... yet. But I'll go through the thought process.

Andrew Wiggins: Very quick, but not a killer demeanor. Relies on his athleticism, and needs to work on developing his shot and handle. Embiid has just has high of potential, and could still be a good player without his athleticism (if age or injury hit either player).

Jabari Parker: Very skilled, but hasn't shown he can play defense. Weight could be an issue, as he is up to 241 now and will likely continue to add pounds through his professional career, potentially forcing a move to PF. Currently playing PF at Duke, so may turn out to develop tweener tendencies. Embiid could give you two-way play and wouldn't give any positional uncertainty.

Julius Randle: Dominant in college, but how much of that will translate to the pros? He is a bully type player that is way to quick and strong for college, but the NBA is another level of size and speed. Other guys with similar playstyles have failed to adapt to the next level (Tyler Hansbrough, Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson). Embiid's game doesn't rely on his physical advantage, and the center position doesn't have the same type of athletes as PF does.

Like I have said, I still would take those three ahead of Embiid. But the idea of an elite two-way center with great physical and mental traits is hard to pass up. Olajuwon is a lofty comparison, but what about a more offensively talented Noah? I could see Embiid developing into a player that can average 18/10 with Noah's defense and passing even if he doesn't end up becoming the next Olajuwon.

[Talent Chaser]

An 18/10 Joakim Noah isn't worth the #1 pick in this draft. I don't understand why you keep bringing up this injury thing with Wiggins, it's a completely flawed thought process. What if Embiid can't handle extra weight and it takes a toll on his knees? He wouldn't be effective now would he? It's not like Wiggins isn't going to add skill throughout his professional career, he also doesn't rely on only athleticism. He is a great slasher and defender, and his ball-handling skills are very under-rated right now. He is clearly the #1 pick, and it IS NOT close. I promise. Also, Jabari is not a bad type of tweener who doesn't have the skill set for either position. He has skills for both the 3 and 4, it just means he is more versatile (Carmelo). I don't know where this notion that Jabari isn't athletic is coming from. He has shown great explosiveness on some dunks this season, and he is a very fast player and can lead a one man fast break with ease due to his great ball-handling skills. Randle is a face up power forward, he should thrive in the nba due to his agility and quickness, no other PF could stop him from getting to the basket in the nba right now. Imagine what he will be in a couple of years down the line. He also has good form on his jumper, he just hasn't needed to show a mid-range game in college because he can get by on the block. Embiid is intriguing and all, but he is not in the same tier as these three guys and there isn't a GM in the league that would risk his job by picking Embiid over any of these 3 blue chip prospects who are guaranteed to be all-stars. Let's not jump the gun on Embiid just yet, he hasn't done anything to warrant this much hype and the Olajuwon comparison is flat out unfair.

[LloydFree]

Embiid is already #3 on my draft board, after 3 weeks of the season. After watching these guys a few games, there is no way I would pass on Embiid at #3, for Randle. Assuming both healthy at the end of season.

[Blast Tyrant]

I think saying Parker's ceiling is Carmelo Anthony is pretty insulting.

Hahaha good one. Last years scoring champ isn't high enough praise. In other news Jennifer Aniston has never been attractive.

The fact that you mentioned a meaningless accolade like scoring champ says enough about Carmelo.

You've really got it all figured out don't you?

[Kabookalu]

An 18/10 Joakim Noah isn't worth the #1 pick in this draft.

An 18/10 Noah with the same bball IQ, passing, and defensive ability is the best big man in the NBA. If that's Embiid's potential I absolutely take him first overall.