2014 Draft Thread (Early offseason panic edition).

[verbal8]

Please resist the temptation of drafting a big man because of his athleticism. If he's a complete and skilled player, that's fine, but that's rare, and a player like that is going top 5 easily. If many aspects of his game are still raw by the draft, but we think he still has a ton of potential, largely because of his athleticism and ability to finish in transition, then WE STILL NEED TO SAY NO.

You realize the player I just described isn't Blake Griffin, right? The player I just described is Jan Vesely. Do you want another Jan Vesely? Do you even want to draft someone who carries the slightest risk of being Jan Vesely?

That might be a bit of an overreaction, but the reality is that it's not all that far off. Even the Vesely who has struggled mightily for us these last few years does one thing really well. Vesely has been elite at finishing in transition. According to Synergy, Vesely was the most efficient player in the entire league in transition. Granted he had only 17 plays in transition, so it's an incredibly small sample size benefited by the fact that Vesely probably only touched the ball in transition if he was wide open for an alley oop. But still, it doesn't change my initial and main point: we cannot risk a lottery pick on an athletic big man who is still very raw.

A player who in some ways reminds me of Vesely is a Canadian named Kehm Birch - who plays for UNLV. He's very unskilled offensively - somehow, he's shooting 34.4% from the field and 82.6 from the line - that'll change through the season, as he's shot over 50% from the field his other 2 college seasons. He's maybe 6'9 225, but he's very long and athletic. He's averaging a startling 14.8 rebounds and 7.2 blocks per 40 minutes. He'll likely go around where Vesely should have gone - late 1st or early 2nd. But if he finds an offensive niche and he can bulk up, perhaps we have a Faried situation.

He looks like a guy who the combine numbers will make a huge difference for. If his standing reach is enough to be a center and his althletic numbers are good, he probably should go in the 1st round. He looks like he might be the Faried of centers.

[pancakes3]

Scary one at Cameron Indoor. Parker and Hood had their gaudy numbers but they really should have lost that one.

[stevemcqueen1]

James McAdoo looks like Shane Battier without the reliable jumper and 3 point range. A bit better size than Battier.

He's going to have to develop his jumper to hold down a job in the NBA for as long as Battier has.

[stevemcqueen1]

A player who in some ways reminds me of Vesely is a Canadian named Kehm Birch - who plays for UNLV. He's very unskilled offensively - somehow, he's shooting 34.4% from the field and 82.6 from the line - that'll change through the season, as he's shot over 50% from the field his other 2 college seasons. He's maybe 6'9 225, but he's very long and athletic. He's averaging a startling 14.8 rebounds and 7.2 blocks per 40 minutes. He'll likely go around where Vesely should have gone - late 1st or early 2nd. But if he finds an offensive niche and he can bulk up, perhaps we have a Faried situation.

I saw him play some last year when I watched UNLV for Bennett. He's a legitimately good defensive player and that team actually played good defense when he was on the floor. They had a strength and athleticism advantage usually. I think he might have been hurt though, and I know he missed some time.

I remember he was a big time recruit for Pittsburgh that lit up the All Star circuit and then totally failed there. Had problems with the staff I think, and he abruptly transferred in the middle of the season I think and talked bad about his teammates on the radio after he left. He might be an ****. I don't know, maybe he grew up. Seems like he's thriving at UNLV.

He definitely has the athletic tools to find a place in the NBA. He's not Faried good. And he clearly doesn't have Faried's intangibles. Defense and rebounding is his ticket to the NBA.

[Ruzious]

Good stuff, Steve. With Moser, Bennett, and Birch, UNLV had some serious front court talent last season, but I guess injuries and questionable chemistry made it hard to gell. Agreed that Birch has to make it on defense and rebounding - and he's a gifted defender.

McAdoo is such a brick-layer. He should never shoot jumpers unless he's wiiiiiiide open.

[verbal8]

There is good news about the East being so bad this year. If it keeps up it basically means the Wizards keep their 1st(for this season) or make the play-offs. Currently the East team missing the play-offs would get the 9th pick. I expect at least a couple more of the Western teams will drop below .500, but it still looks "promising".

[pancakes3]

Coach Cal may be the worst thing to ever happen to basketball. Ever.

[stevemcqueen1]

Good stuff, Steve. With Moser, Bennett, and Birch, UNLV had some serious front court talent last season, but I guess injuries and questionable chemistry made it hard to gell. Agreed that Birch has to make it on defense and rebounding - and he's a gifted defender.

McAdoo is such a brick-layer. He should never shoot jumpers unless he's wiiiiiiide open.

Yeah they had a pretty spectacular amount of athleticism inside. Injuries foiled their plans. Also their guard play was pretty rough. They were young and they did a lot of chucking.

The team had such a makeshift feel and this was at the end of the season. I'm not sure that Dave Rice runs the most disciplined operation.

Birch's production has been ridiculous so far this season. And he's truly a top notch athlete with a pedigree of a blue chipper. There's no way he can keep averaging 11 boards and 5 and a half blocks a game, but nevertheless, the talent is there. He's got NBA ability. I bet he gets grilled on his time in Pittsburgh though. If teams can chalk it up to being young and dumb, then I think you're right that he'll at least be a late first round pick.

McAdoo is a poor shooter that inexplicably has a dangerous turn around fadeaway from 15+ feet. And yet he can't shoot FTs well. He's not a natural and instinctive scorer. Really he just looks like a CBB player, not an obvious NBA caliber offensive player. Handles are OK but not special. Shooting ability is very college level. Average inside finisher. He's got an NBA body and athleticism and he's smart and that is pretty much what he has going for him. Really reminds me of Battier in the way he takes so many charges. That's the way he protects the paint.

Defense is going to be his meal ticket too. But he doesn't have the natural size to play Center so he's going to have to develop three point range and become a prototypical 3 and D guy like Battier to be useful. I doubt he has Battier's lateral quickness too. It seems like forever ago, but I remember Battier actually being a lock down perimeter defender back in Memphis. I highly doubt McAdoo will be able to defend SGs.

[Dark Faze]

I don't think we keep our pick this year barring an injury to Gortat.

With Witt suddenly figuring out a decent bench rotation and Otto and Ariza on their way back (hopefully Web continues to start), I think we'll be locked pretty solidly into that eight seed if not higher moving forward.

And I can't say I'm mad about it. I think Porter is a potential all-star and with Nenes contract coming off the books in 2 years during a great free agency class I really like our chances to get a Love or Durant as long as we make the playoffs the next two seasons and your young core shows improvement.

[nate33]

I don't think we keep our pick this year barring an injury to Gortat.

With Witt suddenly figuring out a decent bench rotation and Otto and Ariza on their way back (hopefully Web continues to start), I think we'll be locked pretty solidly into that eight seed if not higher moving forward.

And I can't say I'm mad about it. I think Porter is a potential all-star and with Nenes contract coming off the books in 2 years during a great free agency class I really like our chances to get a Love or Durant as long as we make the playoffs the next two seasons and your young core shows improvement.

I wouldn't be so sure. On a team with only 6 actual NBA-caliber players, injuries can make or break the season.

The only thing that gives me some confidence is that the East is so unbelievably bad. There are two good teams (Indy and Miami), two competent teams (ATL and CHI), and everyone else stinks. Seriously, no other team in the East would even make the playoffs out West. 4 teams will make the playoffs by default.

[Dat2U]

I don't think we keep our pick this year barring an injury to Gortat.

With Witt suddenly figuring out a decent bench rotation and Otto and Ariza on their way back (hopefully Web continues to start), I think we'll be locked pretty solidly into that eight seed if not higher moving forward.

And I can't say I'm mad about it. I think Porter is a potential all-star and with Nenes contract coming off the books in 2 years during a great free agency class I really like our chances to get a Love or Durant as long as we make the playoffs the next two seasons and your young core shows improvement.

I wouldn't be so sure. On a team with only 6 actual NBA-caliber players, injuries can make or break the season.

Bingo. I don't even think it matters how bad the East is. Look how bad our roster is outside the top 6. With no margin for error and guys having to play 40 minutes a night it's only a matter of time before the wheels fall off.

[Ruzious]

I don't think we keep our pick this year barring an injury to Gortat.

With Witt suddenly figuring out a decent bench rotation and Otto and Ariza on their way back (hopefully Web continues to start), I think we'll be locked pretty solidly into that eight seed if not higher moving forward.

And I can't say I'm mad about it. I think Porter is a potential all-star and with Nenes contract coming off the books in 2 years during a great free agency class I really like our chances to get a Love or Durant as long as we make the playoffs the next two seasons and your young core shows improvement.

I wouldn't be so sure. On a team with only 6 actual NBA-caliber players, injuries can make or break the season.

Bingo. I don't even think it matters how bad the East is. Look how bad our roster is outside the top 6. With no margin for error and guys having to play 40 minutes a night it's only a matter of time before the wheels fall off.

The Beal wheel already has a flat. Keep playing Nene for 35 plus minutes a game, and you can say nono to his wheels.

[stevemcqueen1]

A lot of other teams are in the same boat though. Pretty much only the actual contenders have more than 6 or 7 good players and everyone is trying to hide somebody, praying that X guy doesn't get hurt.

Nate's right that the East is wide open for seeds 3-8. It's a two team act. And those two teams are subject to a Paul George or LeBron James turned ankle at the wrong time ruining their seasons. San Antonio is the only basketball Hydra out there, capable of overcoming all resistance.

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

[verbal8]

I don't think we keep our pick this year barring an injury to Gortat.

With Witt suddenly figuring out a decent bench rotation and Otto and Ariza on their way back (hopefully Web continues to start), I think we'll be locked pretty solidly into that eight seed if not higher moving forward.

Losing Nene or Wall for significant time could knock the Wizards out of the play-offs, even in the East. SF really is the only area where the Wizards have quality depth. The tiny silver lining, is it is looking like pretty much play-offs or pick for the Wizards. It is hard to see the 9th place team in the East having a better record than the 11th place in the West.

Right now the 13th seed in the West(3rd worst) is tied with the 4th seed(home court play-offs) in East. That level of imbalance won't last, but the West is a lot better.

[Ruzious]

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

[Dat2U]

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Agreed. It might be the worst thing possible. Especially if means Witt keeps his job. Ernie gets an extension and we decide to double down on this trap door that Ernie has constructed.

[fugop]

A lot of other teams are in the same boat though. Pretty much only the actual contenders have more than 6 or 7 good players and everyone is trying to hide somebody, praying that X guy doesn't get hurt.

Nate's right that the East is wide open for seeds 3-8. It's a two team act. And those two teams are subject to a Paul George or LeBron James turned ankle at the wrong time ruining their seasons. San Antonio is the only basketball Hydra out there, capable of overcoming all resistance.

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

I wonder if the "super team" phenomena is causing depth issues further down the bench. Veterans with a little gas left congregate together on a few rosters, leaving the rest of the league with scrubs and youngsters. All the Kurt Thomases, Dale Davises, Antonio McDyess, etc. sign with a shrinking number of teams.

[stevemcqueen1]

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Actually, the only thing better for Wall and Beal than getting beaten up by LeBron and Wade in the postseason would be actually beating them. The Wizards have to develop Wall and Beal into superstars, and the only way that's going to happen is if they start winning.

As a friend of mine said, young players on perennial lottery teams tend to become players on perennial lottery teams. Constant losing begets bad habits and bad basketball.

My friend said that he thought the best thing that ever happened for Paul Pierce was getting shown how its done by Jason Kidd twice. His words: "suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball."

This is a make or break year for Wall/Beal construction too.

The NBA is a wait your turn and learn league. The time-tested formula is that the stars ahead of you whip your team's ass in the playoffs until you mature enough to unseat them. Then you do the same to the next group of up and coming stars. It happened with Jordan and the Pistons. It happened with LeBron and the Pistons/Celtics. It's currently happening with KD and Rose and the Heat. And it needs to start happening with Wall and Beal and too.

Also, what are the Wizards going to do with another high draft pick? They have three young top three picks on the roster right now.

[verbal8]

A lot of other teams are in the same boat though. Pretty much only the actual contenders have more than 6 or 7 good players and everyone is trying to hide somebody, praying that X guy doesn't get hurt.

Nate's right that the East is wide open for seeds 3-8. It's a two team act. And those two teams are subject to a Paul George or LeBron James turned ankle at the wrong time ruining their seasons. San Antonio is the only basketball Hydra out there, capable of overcoming all resistance.

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

I wonder if the "super team" phenomena is causing depth issues further down the bench. Veterans with a little gas left congregate together on a few rosters, leaving the rest of the league with scrubs and youngsters. All the Kurt Thomases, Dale Davises, Antonio McDyess, etc. sign with a shrinking number of teams.

There maybe some role players flourishing in the system of a good team, but I think primarily success in the NBA is generally a result of getting good players on your team. A lot of bad teams give up opportunties to get good players for average or worse players. It is pretty well documented here how the Wizards have "accomplished" this.

Here are a couple examples from other teams:

July 10, 2013: (Knicks) Traded Marcus Camby, Steve Novak, Quentin Richardson, a 2014 2nd round draft pick, a 2016 1st round draft pick and a 2017 2nd round draft pick to the Toronto Raptors for Andrea Bargnani.

January 30, 2013: As part of a 3-team trade, the Toronto Raptors traded Jose Calderon, Ed Davis and a 2013 2nd round draft pick (Jamaal Franklin) to the Memphis Grizzlies; the Detroit Pistons traded Austin Daye and Tayshaun Prince to the Memphis Grizzlies; the Memphis Grizzlies traded Jose Calderon to the Detroit Pistons; and the Memphis Grizzlies traded Rudy Gay and Hamed Haddadi to the Toronto Raptors.

You see a couple examples of teams giving the chance to at least acquire cheap depth for a high usage player who doesn't help teams win.

[daSwami]

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Agreed. It might be the worst thing possible. Especially if means Witt keeps his job. Ernie gets an extension and we decide to double down on this trap door that Ernie has constructed.

It does sort of seem like the same recipe for mediocrity in which the 1980s Bullets were stuck: Good enough to earn the 8th seed every year, a mid-first rounder and a roster chock full of guys on the downside of their careers (Roundfield, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, etc...) or circus freaks (Mugsy, Manute, Muresan). Then, just as things began to look promising ... a horrific contract (Juwan) and a knee-jerk trade (CWebb) and we're doomed for a decade.

Without a first-rounder or cap room to land a top-tier FA, and given the appreciable assets we have (namely: Wall, Beal, Nene, Webster, Porter, and Gortat), it's hard to foresee a scenario that raises this franchise the next tier. Barring the unexpected, say, Otto or Vesely blow up, we're the Atlanta Hawks.