2014 Draft Thread (Early offseason panic edition).

[stevemcqueen1]

It does sort of seem like the same recipe for mediocrity in which the 1980s Bullets were stuck: Good enough to earn the 8th seed every year, a mid-first rounder and a roster chock full of guys on the downside of their careers (Roundfield, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, etc...) or circus freaks (Mugsy, Manute, Muresan). Then, just as things began to look promising ... a horrific contract (Juwan) and a knee-jerk trade (CWebb) and we're doomed for a decade.

Without a first-rounder or cap room to land a top-tier FA, and given the appreciable assets we have (namely: Wall, Beal, Nene, Webster, Porter, and Gortat), it's hard to foresee a scenario that raises this franchise the next tier. Barring the unexpected, say, Otto or Vesely blow up, we're the Atlanta Hawks.

Wall and Beal become superstars and we put a good group of role players round them. That's our path to contention.

[Dat2U]

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Actually, the only thing better for Wall and Beal than getting beaten up by LeBron and Wade in the postseason would be actually beating them. The Wizards have to develop Wall and Beal into superstars, and the only way that's going to happen is if they start winning.

As a friend of mine said, young players on perennial lottery teams tend to become players on perennial lottery teams. Constant losing begets bad habits and bad basketball.

My friend said that he thought the best thing that ever happened for Paul Pierce was getting shown how its done by Jason Kidd twice. His words: "suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball."

This is a make or break year for Wall/Beal construction too.

The NBA is a wait your turn and learn league. The time-tested formula is that the stars ahead of you whip your team's ass in the playoffs until you mature enough to unseat them. Then you do the same to the next group of up and coming stars. It happened with Jordan and the Pistons. It happened with LeBron and the Pistons/Celtics. It's currently happening with KD and Rose and the Heat. And it needs to start happening with Wall and Beal and too.

Also, what are the Wizards going to do with another high draft pick? They have three young top three picks on the roster right now.

And there's tons of examples that losing in the first round of the playoffs doesn't get you anywhere.

Think making the playoffs did Milwaukee a lot of good last season? What about Philly the year before? Making the playoffs as a late seed is not something that can be built upon if the talent really isn't there.

What could the Wizards do with another high draft pick? Improve their talent level. Outside of Wall and Beal, there's really nothing sustainable there (it's too early to know about Porter yet).

[fishercob]

I hope we make the playoffs and lose our pick. I want to watch the Wizards in the playoffs so bad.

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Agreed. It might be the worst thing possible. Especially if means Witt keeps his job. Ernie gets an extension and we decide to double down on this trap door that Ernie has constructed.

The 7th or 8th seed would suck because they would very likely mean a quick and painful first round loss.

But the 3rd through sixth seeds would not suck, as they would each pose a reasonable chance of winning a first round series. The WIzards are a game and a half out of the 3rd seed -- Atlanta, and the teams between them are Chicago, Charlotte, Toronto and Detroit.

I want the Wizards to beat the snot out of all of those teams and get the third seed. I want them to win their first round series and get the Heat in the second. I want Wade to retire mid-season to spend more time with his ego and for the Wizards to shock the world -- not just by upsetting Miami, but by Marcin Gortat ritualistically impaling Birdman on live TV (too far?).

A good playoff performance and meaningful playoff experience for our youngs would be a decidedly good thing. I am rooting for that.

[pcbothwel]

Be careful what you wish for Steve. The Bucks squeaked through last season, and I thought it was kinda cool - until they got crushed each game by Miami. I don't think it was a positive experience for the fans or the players. And the organization did not gain any momentum. What I really don't want to see is - the team ends up 38-44 and still gets in the playoffs. That's going to happen to some team this season - maybe us.

Actually, the only thing better for Wall and Beal than getting beaten up by LeBron and Wade in the postseason would be actually beating them. The Wizards have to develop Wall and Beal into superstars, and the only way that's going to happen is if they start winning.

As a friend of mine said, young players on perennial lottery teams tend to become players on perennial lottery teams. Constant losing begets bad habits and bad basketball.

My friend said that he thought the best thing that ever happened for Paul Pierce was getting shown how its done by Jason Kidd twice. His words: "suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball."

This is a make or break year for Wall/Beal construction too.

The NBA is a wait your turn and learn league. The time-tested formula is that the stars ahead of you whip your team's ass in the playoffs until you mature enough to unseat them. Then you do the same to the next group of up and coming stars. It happened with Jordan and the Pistons. It happened with LeBron and the Pistons/Celtics. It's currently happening with KD and Rose and the Heat. And it needs to start happening with Wall and Beal and too.

Also, what are the Wizards going to do with another high draft pick? They have three young top three picks on the roster right now.

And there's tons of examples that losing in the first round of the playoffs doesn't get you anywhere.

Think making the playoffs did Milwaukee a lot of good last season? What about Philly the year before? Making the playoffs as a late seed is not something that can be built upon if the talent really isn't there.

What could the Wizards do with another high draft pick? Improve their talent level. Outside of Wall and Beal, there's really nothing sustainable there (it's too early to know about Porter yet).

Dat,

Ive got to agree with Steve here. The difference between teams like Philly/Milwaukee and us is that they made the 8th seed with no real potential superstars to take them to the next level. I agree with you that if your ceiling is the 6th-8th seed then it would be best to crash, burn, and rebuild. But when you look at the beating we took from the Spurs and what we/Wall has done since, then I don’t regret the beating.
I will concede that I find it hard to believe that Ted would be smart enough to witness team success and still compartmentalize the short comings in management and replace EG. Oh well

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I'm with you Fish. I want that too because I just can't root against the Bullets. Just one small technical quibble. We can't get the third seed... That goes to a division winner unless they've changed how teams are seeded

[Dat2U]

The 7th or 8th seed would suck because they would very likely mean a quick and painful first round loss.

But the 3rd through sixth seeds would not suck, as they would each pose a reasonable chance of winning a first round series. The WIzards are a game and a half out of the 3rd seed -- Atlanta, and the teams between them are Chicago, Charlotte, Toronto and Detroit.

I want the Wizards to beat the snot out of all of those teams and get the third seed. I want them to win their first round series and get the Heat in the second. I want Wade to retire mid-season to spend more time with his ego and for the Wizards to shock the world -- not just by upsetting Miami, but by Marcin Gortat ritualistically impaling Birdman on live TV (too far?).

A good playoff performance and meaningful playoff experience for our youngs would be a decidedly good thing. I am rooting for that.

Dat,

Ive got to agree with Steve here. The difference between teams like Philly/Milwaukee and us is that they made the 8th seed with no real potential superstars to take them to the next level. I agree with you that if your ceiling is the 6th-8th seed then it would be best to crash, burn, and rebuild. But when you look at the beating we took from the Spurs and what we/Wall has done since, then I don’t regret the beating.
I will concede that I find it hard to believe that Ted would be smart enough to witness team success and still compartmentalize the short comings in management and replace EG. Oh well

Where I disagree is the ceiling of the current team. Even with Wall's performance, I don't believe were built for any type of sustained success this season. I think were too much like Portland was last year. Unless you can tell me Wall, Nene & Gortat are playing the whole season completely healthy, at a high level for almost 40 minutes per night, this will be a short lived run. I think the lack of a bench is going to catch up to us big time.

[Ruzious]

Actually, the only thing better for Wall and Beal than getting beaten up by LeBron and Wade in the postseason would be actually beating them. The Wizards have to develop Wall and Beal into superstars, and the only way that's going to happen is if they start winning.

As a friend of mine said, young players on perennial lottery teams tend to become players on perennial lottery teams. Constant losing begets bad habits and bad basketball.

My friend said that he thought the best thing that ever happened for Paul Pierce was getting shown how its done by Jason Kidd twice. His words: "suddenly jacking shots with Antoine Walker didn't seem like such a great approach to basketball."

This is a make or break year for Wall/Beal construction too.

The NBA is a wait your turn and learn league. The time-tested formula is that the stars ahead of you whip your team's ass in the playoffs until you mature enough to unseat them. Then you do the same to the next group of up and coming stars. It happened with Jordan and the Pistons. It happened with LeBron and the Pistons/Celtics. It's currently happening with KD and Rose and the Heat. And it needs to start happening with Wall and Beal and too.

Also, what are the Wizards going to do with another high draft pick? They have three young top three picks on the roster right now.

And there's tons of examples that losing in the first round of the playoffs doesn't get you anywhere.

Think making the playoffs did Milwaukee a lot of good last season? What about Philly the year before? Making the playoffs as a late seed is not something that can be built upon if the talent really isn't there.

What could the Wizards do with another high draft pick? Improve their talent level. Outside of Wall and Beal, there's really nothing sustainable there (it's too early to know about Porter yet).

Dat,

Ive got to agree with Steve here. The difference between teams like Philly/Milwaukee and us is that they made the 8th seed with no real potential superstars to take them to the next level. I agree with you that if your ceiling is the 6th-8th seed then it would be best to crash, burn, and rebuild. But when you look at the beating we took from the Spurs and what we/Wall has done since, then I don’t regret the beating.
I will concede that I find it hard to believe that Ted would be smart enough to witness team success and still compartmentalize the short comings in management and replace EG. Oh well

Some were talking boldly about Sanders becoming a big star last season - until he failed to excel against Miami. Again, I don't think the experience helped him.

[fishercob]

The 7th or 8th seed would suck because they would very likely mean a quick and painful first round loss.

But the 3rd through sixth seeds would not suck, as they would each pose a reasonable chance of winning a first round series. The WIzards are a game and a half out of the 3rd seed -- Atlanta, and the teams between them are Chicago, Charlotte, Toronto and Detroit.

I want the Wizards to beat the snot out of all of those teams and get the third seed. I want them to win their first round series and get the Heat in the second. I want Wade to retire mid-season to spend more time with his ego and for the Wizards to shock the world -- not just by upsetting Miami, but by Marcin Gortat ritualistically impaling Birdman on live TV (too far?).

A good playoff performance and meaningful playoff experience for our youngs would be a decidedly good thing. I am rooting for that.

Dat,

Ive got to agree with Steve here. The difference between teams like Philly/Milwaukee and us is that they made the 8th seed with no real potential superstars to take them to the next level. I agree with you that if your ceiling is the 6th-8th seed then it would be best to crash, burn, and rebuild. But when you look at the beating we took from the Spurs and what we/Wall has done since, then I don’t regret the beating.
I will concede that I find it hard to believe that Ted would be smart enough to witness team success and still compartmentalize the short comings in management and replace EG. Oh well

Where I disagree is the ceiling of the current team. Even with Wall's performance, I don't believe were built for any type of sustained success this season. I think were too much like Portland was last year. Unless you can tell me Wall, Nene & Gortat are playing the whole season completely healthy, at a high level for almost 40 minutes per night, this will be a short lived run. I think the lack of a bench is going to catch up to us big time.

I don't think the scenario I laid out is the likely outcome (because Wizards), but I'm still rooting for it. When I look at each of those teams ahead of us (and thanks for the reminder on 3-seed, LSBF), I don't see anyone that makes me think "there's no way we're catching them." Sure we have depth issues. But the #3 pick -- the reigning Big East POY -- is going to set foot on the court at some point before too long here (knocks wood) and he may be a pretty good player that can help us.

The teams we're trying to catch are led by Rudy Gay & Demar Derozon, Al Jefferson & Kemba Walker, an incompatible frontcourt trio and Brandon Jennings, etc. ATL is formidable. But any of these teams is a little bad injury luck away from completely falling apart. The East is wide open.

[gaspar]

I'm with you Fish. I want that too because I just can't root against the Bullets. Just one small technical quibble. We can't get the third seed... That goes to a division winner unless they've changed how teams are seeded

Nope, division winner is guaranteed a top 4 seed. Wizards can get the 3rd seed. Also, home-court advantage goes to the team with the best record, which isn't always the team with the higher seed. It's possible that the 5th seed will have the HCA in 1st round.

[verbal8]

I'm with you Fish. I want that too because I just can't root against the Bullets. Just one small technical quibble. We can't get the third seed... That goes to a division winner unless they've changed how teams are seeded

Nope, division winner is guaranteed a top 4 seed. Wizards can get the 3rd seed. Also, home-court advantage goes to the team with the best record, which isn't always the team with the higher seed. It's possible that the 5th seed will have the HCA in 1st round.

Looking at the Wizards optimistically, I could very easily see that scenario(5th seed HCA) playing out. Miami and Indy are the top 2 seeds. The Hawks or Bulls will probably finish ahead of the Wizards, but I could see one finishing worse. Whoever wins the Titanic ...er I mean Atlantic division gets the 4 seed. That leaves the 5th seed(but better record than the 4) to the Wizards.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm with you Fish. I want that too because I just can't root against the Bullets. Just one small technical quibble. We can't get the third seed... That goes to a division winner unless they've changed how teams are seeded

Nope, division winner is guaranteed a top 4 seed. Wizards can get the 3rd seed. Also, home-court advantage goes to the team with the best record, which isn't always the team with the higher seed. It's possible that the 5th seed will have the HCA in 1st round.

Looking at the Wizards optimistically, I could very easily see that scenario(5th seed HCA) playing out. Miami and Indy are the top 2 seeds. The Hawks or Bulls will probably finish ahead of the Wizards, but I could see one finishing worse. Whoever wins the Titanic ...er I mean Atlantic division gets the 4 seed. That leaves the 5th seed(but better record than the 4) to the Wizards.

Correct. Right now we're in 6th place, one game back from Atlanta. If we beat ATL on Saturday, then we'll have a good chance of passing them soon.

Chicago really isn't very good. They beat Indy at home, which was big, but they've also had a very home heavy schedule. Their offense is flat out ugly and they're going to have trouble scoring all year. Noah has been playing poorly for the most part. Their guards have been awful. I think they'll be lucky to finish .500.

Right now, I think ATL is our most legitimate obstacle for the third seed. And I think when Rondo gets back, Boston will be a threat too. They've had a brutal schedule so far, their coach is good, and they've got a surprising amount of good players.

But if we keep playing well, we have as good a chance as anyone for #3. Beating Indy tomorrow night would be a huge statement.

[pancakes3]

I don't think we'd have to worry about any 1st round matchups except for Indy and Miami.

As far as the draft goes:

- Joel Embiid (Dalembert), Cauley-Stein (Chandler), Mitch McGary (offensively challenged DMC), Andrew Harrison (Jamal Crawford), Aaron Craft (Mike Conley), and Joe Harris (?) is on my xmas list.
- Wayne Selden (McLemore), Rodney Hood (Ariza), Poythress (Bass) will be good but redundant on our roster.
- Lebryan Nash has a Ron Artest vibe and I think if the right organization rolls the dice on him, he could be a super-role-player for someone.

[Ruzious]

I think Embiid is in the process of not just joining the big 3 - but passing them. His 7 block 2 steal performance the other day (in 21 minutes) answered some questions about his defensive explosiveness. Overall, his per 40 numbers are: 20.8 pts / 15.9 rebs / 5.2 blks / 2.6 asts / 1.3 stls / 3.3 TOs / 7.8 PFs / 67.6 FG% / 56 FT% - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1285672&start=75#sthash.CXTNOrHW.dpuf

Considering how recently he started playing basketball, the offensive numbers are amazing - and the fouls aren't surprising.

I like McGary (if he can stay healthy) a ton but would stay away from Cauley-Stein - he isn't much more than the Birdman of Miami.

Rodney Hood's stats have surpassed Jabari Parkers'. Hood has been remarkably consistent and efficient. Unfortunately, I think Parker and Hood are strictly 3's. Parker can play some 4, but I think he'll be much more effective at the 3.

[nate33]

I think Embiid is in the process of not just joining the big 3 - but passing them. His 7 block 2 steal performance the other day (in 21 minutes) answered some questions about his defensive explosiveness. Overall, his per 40 numbers are: 20.8 pts / 15.9 rebs / 5.2 blks / 2.6 asts / 1.3 stls / 3.3 TOs / 7.8 PFs / 67.6 FG% / 56 FT% - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1285672&start=75#sthash.CXTNOrHW.dpuf

Considering how recently he started playing basketball, the offensive numbers are amazing - and the fouls aren't surprising.

I like McGary (if he can stay healthy) a ton but would stay away from Cauley-Stein - he isn't much more than the Birdman of Miami.

Rodney Hood's stats have surpassed Jabari Parkers'. Hood has been remarkably consistent and efficient. Unfortunately, I think Parker and Hood are strictly 3's. Parker can play some 4, but I think he'll be much more effective at the 3.

I think Parker is absolutely a 4 in the NBA. He'll probably grow another inch (or at least his standing reach will extend another inch) in the next year or so. And he definitely has the strength to get the job defensively at the position. With today's emphasis on floor spacing, he would be murder at PF. I just wish there was some way we could get him. He would be absolutely PERFECT on our team.

[fishercob]

Speak of the Blue Devil

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIDYdSW2wew[/youtube]

[Ruzious]

I think Embiid is in the process of not just joining the big 3 - but passing them. His 7 block 2 steal performance the other day (in 21 minutes) answered some questions about his defensive explosiveness. Overall, his per 40 numbers are: 20.8 pts / 15.9 rebs / 5.2 blks / 2.6 asts / 1.3 stls / 3.3 TOs / 7.8 PFs / 67.6 FG% / 56 FT% - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1285672&start=75#sthash.CXTNOrHW.dpuf

Considering how recently he started playing basketball, the offensive numbers are amazing - and the fouls aren't surprising.

I like McGary (if he can stay healthy) a ton but would stay away from Cauley-Stein - he isn't much more than the Birdman of Miami.

Rodney Hood's stats have surpassed Jabari Parkers'. Hood has been remarkably consistent and efficient. Unfortunately, I think Parker and Hood are strictly 3's. Parker can play some 4, but I think he'll be much more effective at the 3.

I think Parker is absolutely a 4 in the NBA. He'll probably grow another inch (or at least his standing reach will extend another inch) in the next year or so. And he definitely has the strength to get the job defensively at the position. With today's emphasis on floor spacing, he would be murder at PF. I just wish there was some way we could get him. He would be absolutely PERFECT on our team.

Thing is - he's playing PF and C for Duke - and it's having the Jamison effect - and that's college, so it'd be worse in the NBA. Yes, he's 6'8 240, but he's got an 8'8 standing reach. Maybe it grows an inch, but that's still awfully short. If you have a great defensive center, you can get away from some of the problem, but think about it - Washington had Haywood and was still a lousy defensive team. I don't know if you can hide poor defensive bigs against top teams.

[Ruzious]

Speak of the Blue Devil

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIDYdSW2wew[/youtube]

Some of those defensive clips were embarrassing, but at least at the 3, he's got the wingspan and anticipation to disrupt passing lanes.

[nate33]

I think Embiid is in the process of not just joining the big 3 - but passing them. His 7 block 2 steal performance the other day (in 21 minutes) answered some questions about his defensive explosiveness. Overall, his per 40 numbers are: 20.8 pts / 15.9 rebs / 5.2 blks / 2.6 asts / 1.3 stls / 3.3 TOs / 7.8 PFs / 67.6 FG% / 56 FT% - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1285672&start=75#sthash.CXTNOrHW.dpuf

Considering how recently he started playing basketball, the offensive numbers are amazing - and the fouls aren't surprising.

I like McGary (if he can stay healthy) a ton but would stay away from Cauley-Stein - he isn't much more than the Birdman of Miami.

Rodney Hood's stats have surpassed Jabari Parkers'. Hood has been remarkably consistent and efficient. Unfortunately, I think Parker and Hood are strictly 3's. Parker can play some 4, but I think he'll be much more effective at the 3.

I think Parker is absolutely a 4 in the NBA. He'll probably grow another inch (or at least his standing reach will extend another inch) in the next year or so. And he definitely has the strength to get the job defensively at the position. With today's emphasis on floor spacing, he would be murder at PF. I just wish there was some way we could get him. He would be absolutely PERFECT on our team.

Thing is - he's playing PF and C for Duke - and it's having the Jamison effect - and that's college, so it'd be worse in the NBA. Yes, he's 6'8 240, but he's got an 8'8 standing reach. Maybe it grows an inch, but that's still awfully short. If you have a great defensive center, you can get away from some of the problem, but think about it - Washington had Haywood and was still a lousy defensive team. I don't know if you can hide poor defensive bigs against top teams.

You make a fair point that he is undersized. I don't expect a Jamison level impact though. Jamison was not only undersized, but he was an unwilling defender who was allergic to contact. I don't see that in Parker. I think Parker will have a defensive impact roughly like that of Paul Millsap or Draymond Green. He'll take care of his job for the most part, but might have some troubles against height.

[Ruzious]

Nate, I think you're being too easy on Parker. Duke's defense is getting killed because they have no interior defense. Maybe that'll change, but until you see it, it's hard to believe it.

[pancakes3]

Defensively, I wouldn't expect any more out of Parker than you would out of Carmelo. Offensively I think Parker is going to be *better* but defensively at the PF spot you're going to get average production at best.