Bubstubbler wrote:Talent Chaser wrote:I can't believe you guys are seriously considering taking him over Randle, Wiggins, or Parker. The GM would get slammed if Embiid wasn't producing right away and those guys looked like all-stars early on, this would also shatter Embiid's confidence.
GM's don't draft based on who will have the best rookie season, they pick who they think will best help them win titles in the long run.
You want to see a GM get slammed, imagine one giving this interview late on draft night:
Reporter: "Some people thought Embiid would go #1. Tell us your reasoning for choosing player B instead."
GM with #1 pick: "Well, I think Embiid is going to be the better and more important player in the long run, but I decided to draft player B because I think player B will look better right away as a rookie."
Reporter: "You only won 20 games last year. Shouldn't you have drafted the player who you thought would be best in the long run?"
GM: "No, I felt it was more important to just focus on the near-term. I think player B will probably help us win more games next year than Embiid would have. With player B, I think we have a chance to get up around .500 and battle for the 8th seed."
Reporter: "But if you think Embiid will be better and more important, wouldn't Embiid give your team a better chance of winning titles in the long run?"
GM: "Of course. But like I said, my primary goal isn't winning titles, it's trying to maximize our win total in the near-term. I think player B will look like an all-star right away, so even though I think Embiid will be better down the road and would give our team better odds of winning titles down the road, I chose player B."
Reporter: "So you're not trying to maximize your odds of winning titles?"
GM: "Correct. That's a secondary concern."
Can you imagine that? I think media and fans would utterly destroy a GM for adhering to such reasoning. If a GM thinks Embiid is the player whose addition maximizes the odds of that franchise winning titles, then the GM is obligated to draft him. It's one thing to skip him if you don't think he'll maximize your odds of winning titles, but it's a bad move if you
do think he'll maximize those odds and you skip him to get a lesser player because you think the lesser player will put up better rookie scoring stats.
Also, one of Embiid's strengths is his strong mind. He doesn't strike me at all as someone with a frail mind who would have his confidence destroyed if a fellow draftee started playing at an all-star level before he did. All the evidence points to the opposite: look at the great attitude he's displaying at Kansas this year. It's not destroying his confidence that Parker and Randle are getting more minutes and putting up bigger numbers this year in college, and I don't see any indication that his confidence would be destroyed if Parker and Randle put up bigger numbers as NBA rookies, either.
