Freakonomics: Losing is not a Winning Strategy

[Tenchi Ryu]

The front office let us know exactly how they feel when Portland asked for Noah, and we hung up the phone as if Noah is untouchable. So yea, I have no more faith in GarPax.

[GoBlue72391]

As a bulls mod,all these ppl that want the bulls to lose arent they trollers? why don't you guys ban them? You keep on locking threads from everything,but that u let go

Becasue its not trolling at all. The tankers want the team to have the maximum level of talent possible, and we feel that's only possible through the draft at this point. This front office has failed to get it done through trades and signings.

Wanting to tank and posting about it isn't trolling, I agree. But you're crazy if you think that a sizable portion of people haven't crossed the line into trolling territory.

[logical_art]

I think people need to define what they mean by tank.

I mean:

Things that the Bulls can control completely:
+ Trade Deng for good young player/s and/or a good draft pick
+ Give Snell minutes at the expense of MDJ

Things the Bulls can't control completely:
+ Be open to trading Kirk or MDJ if a playoff bound team wants to give up something of value.
+ Of course be willing to trade Boozer if somebody takes him off your hands.
+ Listen to offers for Noah and only move him if a team overpays

So basically "tanking" for me most likely means trading Deng and giving Snell more playing time. Unless you are counting on Deng resigning, I don't see how tanking is going to have a negative effect after this season.

[Rerisen]

Who said anything about blowing up the team? Trading Deng and Hinrich for expiring scrubs/pics would likely be enough to at least get into the top 10.

Sure beats the hell out of sitting on our hands and getting thrashed in the playoffs.

I don't think that many are against that level of - what I'd call - 'retooling'.

Just because people might cheer for the team to win in the game thread, doesn't mean everyone does not see the merits of certain specific moves. Just there is an understanding that regardless if we cheer for a win or a loss, neither has any bearing on the outcome of the game. That's more about just how you prefer to enjoy a game in the moment.

[logical_art]

Do people not realize that we still have Derrick Rose? As long as he can come back and be somewhat close to his former MVP self this team will not suck for a long time. Not to mention the kid Mirotic will be another talented young player coming over next year as well. He's essentially a top 10 draft talent. I don't get this notion that tanking is somehow a bad strategy for this team. Name me a better alternative?

Depends on the definition of tanking. Most don't mind putting Deng on the table, if the org thinks he's done here, or guys like Boozer, MDJ, or Kirk.

But a lot of us just don't want to jettison every single talent on the team, for no guarantee whatsoever, and actually likely still poor odds, of top 3.

Its all about probabilities. If you could increase your chances of getting Parker or Wiggins from 0% to say 10% at the expense of missing out on a first round playoff sweep, wouldn't you do that?

[Tenchi Ryu]

Wanting to tank and posting about it isn't trolling, I agree. But you're crazy if you think that a sizable portion of people haven't crossed the line into trolling territory.

Well you're always gonna have the online foolishness. But the majority already know that realistically, we'd never tank on purpose. But as we have proven the past few games, we are a very bad team right now. Tanking is almost being done indirectly, so might as well go with it and get something.

[Payt10]

Do people not realize that we still have Derrick Rose? As long as he can come back and be somewhat close to his former MVP self this team will not suck for a long time. Not to mention the kid Mirotic will be another talented young player coming over next year as well. He's essentially a top 10 draft talent. I don't get this notion that tanking is somehow a bad strategy for this team. Name me a better alternative?

Depends on the definition of tanking. Most don't mind putting Deng on the table, if the org thinks he's done here, or guys like Boozer, MDJ, or Kirk.

But a lot of us just don't want to jettison every single talent on the team, for no guarantee whatsoever, and actually likely still poor odds, of top 3.

What talent are you really missing out on though, aside from Jimmy, who won't be moved? Is Noah a guy worth losing sleep over if you can move him for another asset? I don't think he is.

[jc23]

I think the problem is people confuse what "tank" means for this team. Because it doesnt mean trade everybody and forget about winning and contending next season.

For us its more about being proactive. As in trading away a player like Lu that was more then likely gone regardless this summer. And you would hope to either get a young player or late first for him.

And its not also about getting a top 5 pick this summer (although that would be great). Its about getting the best pick possible while also bringing back enough talent next season to be a good team.

And to do that we need to make a "few" trades so that we miss the playoffs (Doug makes a good point about this in his blog). Missing the playoffs in the east this year means that you possibly place yourself to get a top 12 pick (possibly better with a little luck 1.7). This is largely due to the fact that teams 9-12 in the west will probably finish with better records then the non playoff teams in the east.

Much of our future still rests in Derricks knees, he is getting max money and if he cant get back to being a top 10 player then we are in trouble regardless. I think he will, im optimistic.

Chicago doing a mini tank is just the smart thing to do if you value the future over the present.

[Tenchi Ryu]

Hindsight....

Last year when Portland asked us for Noah and Taj for LMA I believe it was, I'd totally do it if we could go back in time now.

[Rerisen]

Its all about probabilities. If you could increase your chances of getting Parker or Wiggins from 0% to say 10% at the expense of missing out on a first round playoff sweep, wouldn't you do that?

I think we can get over 0% without blowing up the team. And 10% increase isn't worth losing Noah, Gibson, Butler for the future.

Most likely outcome of that probably being you move up to 5th or something instead of 10th but are now starting at zero talent wise sans Rose and whoever you pick.

I don't think this team can realistically get bad enough to beat the worst few teams, not with Thibs coaching.

Therefore I'd be content juts getting into the lottery and having a 'chance', while retaining some core talent. Making the playoffs isn't an important goal as far as I'm concerned.

[patagonia]

And then what happens if we dismantle the team, end up with the 11th pick, and draft a bust? People who think the grass is always greener end up disappointed when they find out it's not the case.

[DRose4MVP]

Do people not realize that we still have Derrick Rose? As long as he can come back and be somewhat close to his former MVP self this team will not suck for a long time. Not to mention the kid Mirotic will be another talented young player coming over next year as well. He's essentially a top 10 draft talent. I don't get this notion that tanking is somehow a bad strategy for this team. Name me a better alternative?

Exactly. Plus, do we want to be good, or do we want to be great? We have to tank to improve our team in the long run.

[Red Larrivee]

So what is the winning strategy then? Fight hard, make the playoffs, lose in the 1st or 2nd round and draft at 17-20?

We all agree that this season was championship or bust. With Rose out, it's bust and the Bulls have no shot at winning a chamiponship. If they tank for the lottery, mathematically they have a shot at landing into the top three. Favorable? No, but I'll take my chances over a pointless playoff appearance. Crazier things have happened in the lottery and we would know that first hand.

Nobody who tanks is guaranteed a superstar but they're all guaranteed a chance at a superstar. That's the point and in this draft there are 3, some would even say 4 of those talents available.

[DRose4MVP]

And then what happens if we dismantle the team, end up with the 11th pick, and draft a bust? People who think the grass is always greener end up disappointed when they find out it's not the case.

Ummm we are not going to dismantle the team. At the most we'll trade Deng, amnesty Boozer, and trade Noah. We will get something for those guys that is of value. It's not like we trade them for no one.

Plus, um hello, we still have former MVP Derrick Rose coming back, Jimmy Butler, up and coming Snell, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic. On top of that add perhaps 2 top 10-12 picks in a loaded draft. Sign me up for a bright future!

[TheSuzerain]

Freakonomics needs to stay in its lane.

[Rerisen]

What talent are you really missing out on though, aside from Jimmy, who won't be moved? Is Noah a guy worth losing sleep over if you can move him for another asset? I don't think he is.

That all depends on the 'asset'.

But I do know that historically virtually no teams win titles without strong interior rebounding and defense. Not unless you have LeBron James. And high quality centers are very hard to replace.

[Tenchi Ryu]

Seems the anti tankers plan on Rose returning, us signing someone and we can beat Miami. Just don't see that plan working out at all. Sounds like Deja Vu, we've tried it multiple times and failed multiple times.

[Polynice4Pippen]

And then what happens if we dismantle the team, end up with the 11th pick, and draft a bust? People who think the grass is always greener end up disappointed when they find out it's not the case.

How is bringing back Rose, Noah, Butler, Gibson, Snell and bringing over Mirotic and picks dismantling the team? You're being a little overdramatic with that.

[patagonia]

And then what happens if we dismantle the team, end up with the 11th pick, and draft a bust? People who think the grass is always greener end up disappointed when they find out it's not the case.

Ummm we are not going to dismantle the team. At the most we'll trade Deng, amnesty Boozer, and trade Noah. We will get something for those guys that is of value. It's not like we trade them for no one.

Plus, um hello, we still have former MVP Derrick Rose coming back, Jimmy Butler, up and coming Snell, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic. On top of that add perhaps 2 top 10-12 picks in a loaded draft. Sign me up for a bright future!

Who are we drafting that is going to replace those three? You just got rid of a lot of defense, rebounding, and points.

[logical_art]

Its all about probabilities. If you could increase your chances of getting Parker or Wiggins from 0% to say 10% at the expense of missing out on a first round playoff sweep, wouldn't you do that?

I think we can get over 0% without blowing up the team. And 10% increase isn't worth losing Noah, Gibson, Butler for the future.

Most likely outcome of that probably being you move up to 5th or something instead of 10th but are now starting at zero talent wise sans Rose and whoever you pick.

I don't think this team can realistically get bad enough to beat the worst few teams, not with Thibs coaching.

Therefore I'd be content juts getting into the lottery and having a 'chance', while retaining some core talent. Making the playoffs isn't an important goal as far as I'm concerned.

Then I think we're in agreement. I haven't heard anyone suggest just completely gutting the team.

Rooting for tanking is kind of a win win coping mechanism for a bad season. You of course get some immediate pleasure from a win, because they're the Bulls after all, but if they lose that's good too.