Freakonomics: Losing is not a Winning Strategy

[Payt10]

What talent are you really missing out on though, aside from Jimmy, who won't be moved? Is Noah a guy worth losing sleep over if you can move him for another asset? I don't think he is.

That all depends on the 'asset'.

But I do know that historically virtually no teams win titles without strong interior rebounding and defense. Not unless you have LeBron James. And high quality centers are very hard to replace.

You may not need his skill set anymore depending on what all your assets are after he's dealt, on top of everything else.

Too one dimensional and injury prone for me to declare him untradeable, provided we get something good in return. I would not just dump him. He still has value.

What I would trade him for:

- A top 10 pick (Not happening)
- A young talented player (Like a Jeremy Lamb or Steven Adams for example)
- A better than serviceable player and a 15-20 first round pick

If you can't get something like that, he's not worth trading.

[Red8911]

You guys can want to tank all you want,but you know it wont happen.I truly believe they will get the third seed.Its just very annoying and embarrassing to see bulls fans wanting to lose.

We don't need to make this one side vs. the other. Some would consider those watching this team play without Derrick and still believing they're a 3 seed as delusional. So "annoying", "embarrassing", "delusional", we're all Bulls fans nonetheless.

Actually, I wouldn't put it past Thibs to find a way to drag the team to a #3 or #4 seed this year. That's not the problem. The problem is that what is gained by that? A 5-game (at best) whipping by the Heat or Pacers in round 2? People have laughed at teams like the Bucks for years when that was their ceiling. Now that's what some fans want to achieve for the Bulls?

How many teams win a championship?Thats only ONE. so lets say miami are the favorites,with that mind set okc,pacers,warriors,spurs should tank as well since they got no chance right?

[Tenchi Ryu]

And you still need interior defense and rebounding to win a chip.

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

[Red8911]

And you still need interior defense and rebounding to win a chip.

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

I disagree,boozer is still a better shooter-scorer and passer than taj,but hes the better defender-blocker and rebounder.

[Polynice4Pippen]

You guys can want to tank all you want,but you know it wont happen.I truly believe they will get the third seed.Its just very annoying and embarrassing to see bulls fans wanting to lose.

We don't need to make this one side vs. the other. Some would consider those watching this team play without Derrick and still believing they're a 3 seed as delusional. So "annoying", "embarrassing", "delusional", we're all Bulls fans nonetheless.

Actually, I wouldn't put it past Thibs to find a way to drag the team to a #3 or #4 seed this year. That's not the problem. The problem is that what is gained by that? A 5-game (at best) whipping by the Heat or Pacers in round 2? People have laughed at teams like the Bucks for years when that was their ceiling. Now that's what some fans want to achieve for the Bulls?

I really don't think you have to worry about this team getting a #3 or #4 seed. They can't win close games, don't have the guard play or shot creating ability.

[patagonia]

And you still need interior defense and rebounding to win a chip.

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

I'm a Taj fan, too, but he can't play 48 minutes a night (insert Thibs joke) and who else is there with him in the front court? Assuming we amnesty Boozer are we going to start Nazr next year?

[Tenchi Ryu]

And you still need interior defense and rebounding to win a chip.

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

I disagree,boozer is still a better shooter-scorer and passer than taj,but hes the better defender-blocker and rebounder.

See, the ONLY problem with Boozer is his contract, that's it. If we can resign him later on a Taj like contract, I'm all for it. The contract is the only killer when it comes to Carlos.

[Tenchi Ryu]

And you still need interior defense and rebounding to win a chip.

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

I'm a Taj fan, too, but he can't play 48 minutes a night (insert Thibs joke) and who else is there with him in the front court? Assuming we amnesty Boozer are we going to start Nazr next year?

It's time to drop Jo and start developing Murphy with Taj as the frontcourt leader. And we can always find a big body from the D-league wanting to prove himself.

[Polynice4Pippen]

You guys can want to tank all you want,but you know it wont happen.I truly believe they will get the third seed.Its just very annoying and embarrassing to see bulls fans wanting to lose.

We don't need to make this one side vs. the other. Some would consider those watching this team play without Derrick and still believing they're a 3 seed as delusional. So "annoying", "embarrassing", "delusional", we're all Bulls fans nonetheless.

But they're not constantly posting in the game thread.

No one is keeping them from posting. No one is forcing people to root for Bulls losses either.

[ryan44]

We don't need to make this one side vs. the other. Some would consider those watching this team play without Derrick and still believing they're a 3 seed as delusional. So "annoying", "embarrassing", "delusional", we're all Bulls fans nonetheless.

Actually, I wouldn't put it past Thibs to find a way to drag the team to a #3 or #4 seed this year. That's not the problem. The problem is that what is gained by that? A 5-game (at best) whipping by the Heat or Pacers in round 2? People have laughed at teams like the Bucks for years when that was their ceiling. Now that's what some fans want to achieve for the Bulls?

How many teams win a championship?Thats only ONE. so lets say miami are the favorites,with that mind set okc,pacers,warriors,spurs should tank as well since they got no chance right?

Not at all. If teams have a legitimate shot to beat the favorites or have a younger core of players that could benefit from the playoffs, by all means go ahead and keep building/stay the course.

Do any of those things remotely apply to the Bulls? IMO not a chance in hell.

1. Legitimate threat to beat the Heat in the playoffs barring LeBron and either Wade or Bosh operating anything close to 100%? Don't make me laugh. Delusional isn't a strong enough word as the team is currently constructed.

2. Younger core/needs playoff experience? Anyone of note other then Butler (maybe) and Snell doesn't gain a damn thing by being in the playoffs again and getting slapped around in the 2nd round.

[RedBulls23]

Depends on the definition of tanking. Most don't mind putting Deng on the table, if the org thinks he's done here, or guys like Boozer, MDJ, or Kirk.

But a lot of us just don't want to jettison every single talent on the team, for no guarantee whatsoever, and actually likely still poor odds, of top 3.

I think we seriously would be a top 5 lottery team with just trading Deng. No need to dump any other assets really. We would be so bad on offense at that point. We already aren't that good as is.

[Polynice4Pippen]

You guys can want to tank all you want,but you know it wont happen.I truly believe they will get the third seed.Its just very annoying and embarrassing to see bulls fans wanting to lose.

We don't need to make this one side vs. the other. Some would consider those watching this team play without Derrick and still believing they're a 3 seed as delusional. So "annoying", "embarrassing", "delusional", we're all Bulls fans nonetheless.

Ok but their still not tanking lol,did you see the game tonight? did that look like tanking? Its not going to happen,and everybody knows that but keeps talking about it.

No one ever said the Bulls were tanking, that's a fan thing. The reality is the Bulls are losing. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games. Do you think the Buls are playing well right now? Do you think we're having a good season. DO you think this team is any good? They lost to Utah, to Cleveland, to New Orleans without their best player. Tank or not, this Bulls team isn't that good right now. That's why they're losing almost every night. The fact that they're losing close games makes it even worse.

[patagonia]

I'm just gonna go on and say it.

Taj is just more trustworthy in almost every facet of the game at this point, except maybe passing. But Taj has already passed Noah on offense, just as good defensively and cheaper. It's sad when a Taj Naz frontcourt is more effective than Noah.

Noah when in All-Star mode is good, but its no longer consistent. We know that he's gonna be seriously injured in about 3 months, and that is just sad.

I'm a Taj fan, too, but he can't play 48 minutes a night (insert Thibs joke) and who else is there with him in the front court? Assuming we amnesty Boozer are we going to start Nazr next year?

It's time to drop Jo and start developing Murphy with Taj as the frontcourt leader. And we can always find a big body from the D-league wanting to prove himself.

Murphy and a d-leaguer are going to carry us to an NBA championship?

I'm going to assume you are trolling me now so goodnight.

[Makaveli92]

Why do people think when we trade Deng we'll all of a sudden suck even worse? I think if the Bulls trade Deng theyll try to get a good player for him.

I think the Bulls should trade Deng, get some nice young players and sign someone like Stephen Jackson and we'll be good.

[Tenchi Ryu]

[

Murphy and a d-leaguer are going to carry us to an NBA championship?

I'm going to assume you are trolling me now so goodnight.

No, a Taj, newly signed Vet, and Murphy frontcourt can lead us to a championship. And a bench D-leaguer like Pittman who's just a good big body to have.

[Wingy]

Its all about probabilities. If you could increase your chances of getting Parker or Wiggins from 0% to say 10% at the expense of missing out on a first round playoff sweep, wouldn't you do that?

I think we can get over 0% without blowing up the team. And 10% increase isn't worth losing Noah, Gibson, Butler for the future.

Most likely outcome of that probably being you move up to 5th or something instead of 10th but are now starting at zero talent wise sans Rose and whoever you pick.

I don't think this team can realistically get bad enough to beat the worst few teams, not with Thibs coaching.

Therefore I'd be content juts getting into the lottery and having a 'chance', while retaining some core talent. Making the playoffs isn't an important goal as far as I'm concerned.

This is most realistic. Though many people like me would be ok with the fantasy scenario of a full blow up and going all in on the best lotto chance possible...everyone should know there's no chance in hell of it actually happening.

An in between option really should happen though. Deng is a really damn good player and people tend to forget that, but I don't think he's worth the asking price even if he lowers it some. We've run him into the ground for years and we have too many offensive flaws to commit big money to Deng IMO. It's a lot easier to find a Deng facsimile than a Dexter St. Jacques. We have a Deng-like player in Jimmy already and another potential one in Snell. Not saying they're as good, but they can do a close enough impression to put our resources elsewhere outside of Deng.

Dump Kirk/Dunleavy for the best asset you can get. Heck, trade Nazr if you can get anything for him! Keep Noah/Taj/Jimmy/Booze and baby the heck out of any injuries on those guys. Try to build up Teague's value if that's at all possible.

This article be damned, we shouldn't be going all out to win. We should be enhancing our draft pick asset as much as possible. The dream of top 3-4 is just that, but doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking to take advantage of Rose's absence.

I don't think you necessarily disagree w/any of this, but simply raising our chances even 5-10% probably also means we're a couple picks higher which gives GarPax more ammo in the warchest to improve.

[ryan44]

Why do people think when we trade Deng we'll all of a sudden suck even worse? I think if the Bulls trade Deng theyll try to get a good player for him.

I think the Bulls should trade Deng, get some nice young players and sign someone like Stephen Jackson and we'll be good.

I highly doubt the Bulls want a player of roughly equal caliber for Deng. They'd want some combination of picks, young players with potential, and maybe a throw-in or two to make salaries match if necessary. Besides, Deng is pretty key in terms of Thibs defensive system. No one player or combination of players they get in a trade is going to step in and replicate in the short-term what he does for the team.

[kodo]

I came across an article that offers an interesting take on the tanking debate. More specifically, it argues that tanking is "not a winning strategy in the NBA." I think it's a useful read for everyone on the board, and may shed some new insight into the board's debate.

http://freakonomics.com/2013/10/29/losi ... n-the-nba/

This article was posted before and it uses a simplistic, almost childish view of the NBA.

It calls any team that wins 54 or more games contenders. That group would include the New York Knicks, the Denver Nuggets, the Joe Johnson Hawks, the Boozer era Jazz, the post D'Antoni Suns, the Chris Paul - Stojakovic Hornets.

The reality is there is no statistically significant study that can be performed because there are have been so few NBA championship franchises. So they made an artificial definition of "contender" (any team that wins 54 games) to create enough data.

If someone tells me tanking for a star isn't the best way to win 50 games in a season, I would wholeheartedly agree. Get some overpaid vets in FA and go get your 50 games. But mediocre, expensive vets as your best players is not how you build a championship.

People want a safe, high % way to win a championship. That road does not exist. No matter what method you study, across all 30 franchises EVERYTHING you do will result in the average team not winning championships.

[Makaveli92]

Why do people think when we trade Deng we'll all of a sudden suck even worse? I think if the Bulls trade Deng theyll try to get a good player for him.

I think the Bulls should trade Deng, get some nice young players and sign someone like Stephen Jackson and we'll be good.

I highly doubt the Bulls want a player of roughly equal caliber for Deng. They'd want some combination of picks, young players with potential, and maybe a throw-in or two to make salaries match if necessary. Besides, Deng is pretty key in terms of Thibs defensive system. No one player or combination of players they get in a trade is going to step in and replicate in the short-term what he does for the team.

if we trade for like Waiters and Earl Clark, or Gee I think we'll be alright. We trade Deng for some nice young cheap pieces we might be better than what we are now.

[Payt10]

Why do people think when we trade Deng we'll all of a sudden suck even worse? I think if the Bulls trade Deng theyll try to get a good player for him.

I think the Bulls should trade Deng, get some nice young players and sign someone like Stephen Jackson and we'll be good.

Deng is playing out of his mind right now and the Bulls are still losing to bad teams. As long as they don't add multiple scorers, they should still be alright for a tank job.