Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[payitforward]

I like Seraphin for Rivers.

How about Ariza for Illyasova straight up?

Rivers isn't "better than Maynor" in the sense that he could take his minutes. For one thing, he's not a PG. For another his numbers are worse than Maynor's!!

On the other hand, it's not a bad trade -- because Seraphin is even worse than Rivers, and Rivers has at least *some chance* to develop (however unlikely; keep in mind that he was awful at Duke as well).

But... I'd only do it if they threw in Withey!

edit... as to Ariza <> Ilyasova: I don't want to trade Ariza, tho I like Ilyasova.

[nate33]

I like Seraphin for Rivers.

How about Ariza for Illyasova straight up?

I'd be down with the first deal. No interest in moving Ariza for Ilyasova. Ariza is the better player... never understood what the obsession is with Ilyasova on this trade board. Once we got him, it'd take about 2 weeks before people are screaming that hes overpaid and EG ruined our cap space.

I disagree. Ariza probably is a better player, but Ilyasova can play PF. And he can shoot threes. If Porter plays well, then Ilyasova would balance out our roster more. And insulate us against Nene's injury.

I'd make that trade once Porter and Beal get back. The ticking time bomb for this team is Nene's Achilles. He needs to be able to rest without us going into the tank and a healthy Ilyasova would be huge.

Plus It'd be nice to have Ilyasova's 3 ball as an option over Al Harrington.

I'd make the deal and then plan on bringing Gortat back this summer with the rest of my money.

The next move is finding a better third guard. Once you've got that, if Porter works out, you've got a balanced roster.

Agreed. Sell high on Ariza. He is playing great right now, but probably a bit over his head. If you can trade him straight up for the younger Ilyasova, who plays a position of dire need, you do it.

You can then move Nene to the bench to help keep him healthy and to bolster the 2nd unit. Porter is the 3rd wing. That's a very well-balanced core of 7 players. Wall gets to play alongside a floor-spreading stretch four. Nene captains the 2nd unit when Wall sits. It would do wonders for our bench's effectiveness. As mcqueen said, the only remaining hole is at backup PG.

If Cleveland wants to reboot and dump some vets, I wonder if they'd take Maynor plus expiring contracts (Seraphin and Singleton) for Jarett Jack? That would really round out the roster and also make us a little more capable of dealing with one injury to our top 8.

[Zonkerbl]

We'll have the room. I doubt we turn Arizas salary into anything of long term signifiance. Booker, Seraphin and Ves all combine for somewhere around 8 million and Nene is 13 mil off the books.

Maynor expires as well (2 millon).

No. I'm telling you, we won't have the cap room. In 2016 we will have Wall under a max contract, Beal will have a max cap hold (or will have already been extended at max or near-max money), and we will presumably be paying Gortat in the neighborhood of $12M. Throw in the salaries of Webster, Porter, a 1st round pick (either 2014 or 2015) and whatever other guys we have on the roster and it'll leave us with well less than max cap room.

Wall + Beal + Gortat + Webster + Porter alone will cost about $49-53M, depending on the salaries of Beal and Gortat.

Ugh. Wait, so would we actually have $7-11 mil to sign a free agent with at some point? I suppose we could always swing a trade to bring in a $7-11 mil PF.

I suppose we're hoping Webster/Porter in 2016 is equivalent to Webster/Ariza now, so we would still have to replace Nene's production somehow as well as put together a bench.

Hopefully by 2016 the luxury cap penalties will push free agent salaries down enough that we can get a serviceable PF for $7-11 mil (or finagle a trade to accomplish same). Then you've got the MLE and biannual exception to sign a backup PF and PG, respectively, and first round draft picks/veteran min contracts to backup SG (where Webster can take some minutes) and Center (ugh).

Wall/biannual exception PG
Beal/Webster/vet min or draft pick
Webster/Porter
$7-11 mill FA PF/MLE PF
Gortat/vet min or draft pick

I guess you could also draft a backup PG late in the first round, why not (wouldn't that end up costing about the same as the bi-annual exception anyway)? Or draft a decent PF so you can spend the MLE on a backup C.

What do you think the luxury cap will be in 2016?

[Nivek]

Do you think the Pelicans would trade Rivers for Seraphin with Davis out?

Rivers gets no PT, and even with his historically sucky season last year, he's got to be better than Maynor.

Last season, Rivers was even worse than Maynor has been this season (or any other season of Maynor's career). Last I looked at Rivers' numbers for this season (which was last week sometime), he was less productive than Maynor has been.

Rivers might be better than Seraphin at this point. But that's the pretty much the lowest of bars.

Well could that be because of lack of PT? Maynor gets a good amount of PT, even though he doesnt deserve it, which could inflate #'s. I'd still rather have Rivers than Maynor

Nope. My productivity measure is a per minute stat. Rivers was the league's least productive player last season (minimum 500 minutes). His PPA (my stat) was zero. Replacement level is 45. Average is 100. He was AWFUL.

In limited playing time this season, Rivers rates about the same as Maynor. His PPA is 41 (still below replacement level) -- Maynor's is 35. And, Seraphin is worse yet -- -27 (that's NEGATIVE 27).

In terms of a trade, the Wizards would "win" a Seraphin for Rivers swap in the sense that Rivers is marginally the better player. But, Rivers would also cost them cap room next season. The better move is to simply let Seraphin's contract expire (or just cut him now) and not add a salary obligation to another scrub player. The only reason to trade for Rivers is if you believe he has the potential to be a solid player. I don't think that's the case -- I had a "don't draft" rating on him coming out of college. I haven't seen anything in the pros yet to make me think that analysis was wrong.

[fishercob]

What do people think about bringing Jarrett Jack home to the DMV? He's 30 and playing the worst ball of his career. He's signed for two more years at $6.3M/season. Not pretty.

OTOH, Cleveland could find themselves in a crappy position this summer as a bad team with little cap room (if they keep Bynum and Varajao). They might be willing to unload Jack for mere expirings in order to give them some flexibility moving forward

Here's an interesting Mike Prada piece on Jack.

I'd trade Maynor plus expiring contracts (Seraphin and Singleton) for him. I wouldn't trade Ariza and I'd insist that Maynor be sent out.

I don't think Cleveland bites yet, but if they continue to struggle, they may look to jettison some veterans.

This is a good trade on its face, but I wouldn't make it. We have two obvious primary needs -- backup combo guard and backup big man. I think it's easier to find a competant bargain guard -- guys like Livingston, Isiah Thomas, Brian Roberts, Udrih, etc., than it is to find a big man. Beal's return and Porter's arrival are going to have some trickle down effects that should provide a little more production in the backcourt. While they may have some similar effects up front, they'll be small.

So I think if we have one trade in us, it's got to be for a big. Hopefully it also opens a roster spot so we can add a D-Leaguer or someone returning from China to help the backcourt as well. But if it was me, I'd be looking for deals before the deadline for the best big I can get with my expirings -- Bass, Frye, etc.

[dckingsfan]

What do people think about bringing Jarrett Jack home to the DMV? He's 30 and playing the worst ball of his career. He's signed for two more years at $6.3M/season. Not pretty.

OTOH, Cleveland could find themselves in a crappy position this summer as a bad team with little cap room (if they keep Bynum and Varajao). They might be willing to unload Jack for mere expirings in order to give them some flexibility moving forward

Here's an interesting Mike Prada piece on Jack.

I'd trade Maynor plus expiring contracts (Seraphin and Singleton) for him. I wouldn't trade Ariza and I'd insist that Maynor be sent out.

I don't think Cleveland bites yet, but if they continue to struggle, they may look to jettison some veterans.

This is a good trade on its face, but I wouldn't make it. We have two obvious primary needs -- backup combo guard and backup big man. I think it's easier to find a competant bargain guard -- guys like Livingston, Isiah Thomas, Brian Roberts, Udrih, etc., than it is to find a big man. Beal's return and Porter's arrival are going to have some trickle down effects that should provide a little more production in the backcourt. While they may have some similar effects up front, they'll be small.

So I think if we have one trade in us, it's got to be for a big. Hopefully it also opens a roster spot so we can add a D-Leaguer or someone returning from China to help the backcourt as well. But if it was me, I'd be looking for deals before the deadline for the best big I can get with my expirings -- Bass, Frye, etc.

Agreed, it has to be for a legit NBA FC player... and hope for a D League/foreign backcourt player. I don't agree that Porter is going to make a difference this year. He just has too much to overcome (getting over the injury, getting back in basketball shape, learning the offensive and defensive schemes and getting used to the speed of the NBA) to make a positive contribution this year.

[fishercob]

That said,if we could trade Ariza for Ilyasova, I'd do this deal for Jack.

Wall/Jack
Beal/Jack/Webster
Webster/Porter
Nene/Ilyasova
Gortat/Nene

That's a really good 8 man rotation. Plenty of room to sign Gortat and to add depth via the MLE and stay under the tax line.

[jivelikenice]

I'd stay away from tying up future cap space on a guy like Ilyasova. I think he's been highly overrated on this board. He has some talent and fits a need, but you're basically biting into your cap space for a role player. Ariza is playing outstanding ball right now. Let is play out and see if he slows down slightly or if an injury prompts a need at a position before dealing him. There's no rush. If he plays out his contract, so be it. You can still potentially re-sign him and use Otto as trade bait for a RFA next offseason??

I like the idea of Rivers for Seraphin. Rivers is on the books for next season, but its a very modest number. He seems to fit the mold of what they were hoping Jordan Crawford would be. Not saying he's shown that ability on the court yet but he did play well in SL and could be a combo 3rd guard down if given the opportunity and if he accepts his role and plays up to his potential.

[jivelikenice]

That said,if we could trade Ariza for Ilyasova, I'd do this deal for Jack.

Wall/Jack
Beal/Jack/Webster
Webster/Porter
Nene/Ilyasova
Gortat/Nene

That's a really good 8 man rotation. Plenty of room to sign Gortat and to add depth via the MLE and stay under the tax line.

The team is playing well right now. Its a flawed team due to the bench woes but you don't want to alter chemistry that much. Ernie needs to focuson on using the expiring contracts of Seraphin/Booker/Singleton/or Vesely to fix the bench. Leave all else as-is at least until the deadline.

[nuposse04]

I'd stay away from tying up future cap space on a guy like Ilyasova. I think he's been highly overrated on this board. He has some talent and fits a need, but you're basically biting into your cap space for a role player. Ariza is playing outstanding ball right now. Let is play out and see if he slows down slightly or if an injury prompts a need at a position before dealing him. There's no rush. If he plays out his contract, so be it. You can still potentially re-sign him and use Otto as trade bait for a RFA next offseason??

I like the idea of Rivers for Seraphin. Rivers is on the books for next season, but its a very modest number. He seems to fit the mold of what they were hoping Jordan Crawford would be. Not saying he's shown that ability on the court yet but he did play well in SL and could be a combo 3rd guard down if given the opportunity and if he accepts his role and plays up to his potential.

Rivers for Seraphin is a bad move cause then you're on the hook for the putrid scourge of the NBA for multi years as oppose to Seraphin simply expiring. Rivers is also a very poor mans crawford...That isn't somebody you trade for.

In any Ersan trade I think we'd be wise to try to extract out Ridinour or dare I say...Wolters from MIL. Either one should be a sizable upgrade from Maynor.

[fishercob]

I'd stay away from tying up future cap space on a guy like Ilyasova. I think he's been highly overrated on this board. He has some talent and fits a need, but you're basically biting into your cap space for a role player. Ariza is playing outstanding ball right now. Let is play out and see if he slows down slightly or if an injury prompts a need at a position before dealing him. There's no rush. If he plays out his contract, so be it. You can still potentially re-sign him and use Otto as trade bait for a RFA next offseason??

I disagree. I think it's very short-sited to make any decision on how the Wizards are playing "right now."

I don't know what you mean by "role player." Sure, he's not a superstar, but his numbers up until this season are really, really, indisputably good -- and that's playing with lots of assy teammates. Put him with a stud young PG like Wall; get him out of Milwaukee and into a thriving international city like DC -- and watch him blossom.

Porter, with a little time and seasoning, should be able to do a lot -- if not all -- of what Ariza is doing now. This positions the Wizards much better for the long term. They get young, deeper, and more productive.

[jivelikenice]

Totally disagree. I think its more shortsighted to tie up significant future cap space in Ilyasova at this point. We haven't seen Otto play since the summer. I'm a big fan but you're expecting a lot of him if you think he can easily fit Ariza's shoes at this point. Ariza is playing like one of the top 3&D players in the league right now. You can't expect a rookie with no TC to step into that role.

We're playing well and have flexibility with expirings. There's no rush to make a move at least until the deadline. Rushing to trade Ariza for a guy who is a good role player (IMO) and who is on the books for years to come is a panic move when there's no reason to panic. Sit back and see what else materializes....

[stevemcqueen1]

Offensively, Ilyasova would be a really nice fit with Wall. His numbers this season notwithstanding, he's got a really good three ball and he can be a knock down catch and shoot guy. I think Wall could coax some of Ersan's best ball out of him. I think you could see his three pointers double.

Really, what we need now is role players anyway. Ersan can shoot and rebound and we'll always need guys like that. Wall and Beal are our stars players.

But the problem is that he's not healthy right now, and Porter and Beal aren't healthy. The timing just isn't good until those three get healthy.

Also Ersan/Nene/Gortat really necessitates a 9 man rotation IMO. Ersan's career high in minutes is 27 a night. His injury history is such that you shouldn't go above that, and not all of them are going to be at PF. Probably some should come at SF for us. Then Gortat's minutes should probably be no more than 32 a night like in 2011. And Nene should really only be about 27 a night too. Gonna need another big that can play as many as 20 minutes a night. Vesely will have to do it.

[stevemcqueen1]

Totally disagree. I think its more shortsighted to tie up significant future cap space in Ilyasova at this point. We haven't seen Otto play since the summer. I'm a big fan but you're expecting a lot of him if you think he can easily fit Ariza's shoes at this point. Ariza is playing like one of the top 3&D players in the league right now. You can't expect a rookie with no TC to step into that role.

We're playing well and have flexibility with expirings. There's no rush to make a move at least until the deadline. Rushing to trade Ariza for a guy who is a good role player (IMO) and who is on the books for years to come is a panic move when there's no reason to panic. Sit back and see what else materializes....

I see arguments both ways. But I think the fit is good with Ilyasova if he gets healthy.

You're right, Porter isn't going to fill Ariza's shoes tomorrow. But you've got to take the risk that he will eventually because we can't bring Ariza back. Make up the difference in the short term elsewhere, like Beal getting healthy and Webster taking over a bigger role.

Plus Ilyasova himself would replace a lot of Ariza's offense. And he'd help us manage Nene's minutes a lot better.

No we don't need to be in a rush to make a move because letting Ariza expire isn't terrible. But I also don't see a need to wait until the deadline, because ideally, you do want to build chemistry with any important new piece ASAP.

Also, you do have to strike while the iron is hot. If we know we're going to try and keep Gortat this summer, that means we don't have cap space to make significant moves. So trade would then be our best avenue, and Ariza is currently our best chip.

If you think a better PF type will come along than Ilyasova, or if you want someone who can play C instead, then it does make sense to wait. But I'm not so sure we'll find a better PF. Ilyasova seems like a really nice fit.

Also, I'm not worried that we'd be tying our money up in role players like Ilyasova and Gortat. That's basically what we need to fill out the roster. Wall and Beal are our star players. We've got Porter and Webster at SF. Nene and Gortat are a good PF/C combo. Now you need another guard, another PF, and probably another C. Those guys are going to be role players, naturally. Unless we can somehow finagle Kevin Love into D.C., role players are what we're looking at.

[nate33]

Also Ersan/Nene/Gortat really necessitates a 9 man rotation IMO. Ersan's career high in minutes is 27 a night. His injury history is such that you shouldn't go above that, and not all of them are going to be at PF. Probably some should come at SF for us. Then Gortat's minutes should probably be no more than 32 a night like in 2011. And Nene should really only be about 27 a night too. Gonna need another big that can play as many as 20 minutes a night. Vesely will have to do it.

In a game that matters, like a playoff game, it's pretty easy to get the job done with just those three guys. Gortat gets 36, Ilyasova gets 32, and Nene gets 30. I agree that over the course of the regular season, you'd want to get one more guy in there so that Gortat plays closer to 32-33 minutes, Ilyasova plays 28 and Nene plays 28, but that's not really that hard to accomplish. Finding a 4th big is easy. It's the top 3 that are difficult. I'd try and keep a veteran 4th big like an Elton Brand or Al Harrington, and a rookie contract 5th big from the draft (or resign one of Booker or Vesely for less than $2M).

[fishercob]

Totally disagree. I think its more shortsighted to tie up significant future cap space in Ilyasova at this point. We haven't seen Otto play since the summer. I'm a big fan but you're expecting a lot of him if you think he can easily fit Ariza's shoes at this point. Ariza is playing like one of the top 3&D players in the league right now. You can't expect a rookie with no TC to step into that role.

We're playing well and have flexibility with expirings. There's no rush to make a move at least until the deadline. Rushing to trade Ariza for a guy who is a good role player (IMO) and who is on the books for years to come is a panic move when there's no reason to panic. Sit back and see what else materializes....

To be clear, I'm not expecting Porter to replace Ariza's production immediately. There are going to be some "transaction costs" the way there were with Okafor, Ariza, Gortat, etc; it's going to take time for guys to integrate with one another, settle into roles, etc. I contend, that short term cost is worth it because I believe in Porter and I believe in Ilyasova.

I agree that keeping Ariza and trading other expirings for Ilyasova would be better. This trade came about in response to the much-discussed assertion that a third team likely needs to be involved for an Ilyasova to DC trade to make sense. By using Ariza (and banking on Porter) we are able to get Milwaukee a better (and more reasonable) return.

This isn't a panic move at all. It's being opportunistic. History and the law of averages tells us Ariza's production is going to come back to earth and Ilyasova's will improve. It's very possible that to the extent this opportunity exists today, it will not in a month.

[wizardry]

2 much NBA 2k14 for you guys

[Zonkerbl]

In any Ersan trade I think we'd be wise to try to extract out Ridinour or dare I say...Wolters from MIL. Either one should be a sizable upgrade from Maynor.

Just looked this up yesterday 'cause I couldn't believe it -- we drafted Wolters with the 38th pick and then traded him for GRJR.

So basically we paid someone to take the better player. A player, it turns out, that we DESPERATELY NEED! Nice one, EG!

[jsbasketball10]

First of all, the bench has gotta be shaken up. maynor singleton and seraphin especially, temple too. they suck. What's wrong with trying to bring in a guy like grevis Vasquez as the point guard. Former terp fan favorite and he would be the perfect fit. Another good fit I see would be Arron afflalo. We desperately need some bench scoring, and even giving up Webster or ariza might make this worth it to me. I think that guy could be the best 6th man in the league and a good fit for this team

[jsbasketball10]

Don't see why everyone's so desperate to get rid of nene, the defense is not the same when he doesn't play. Sure I understand the whole contract thing, but I don't think illyasova is the solution for the wizards at all either. That dude is over rated on this board.