Freakonomics: Losing is not a Winning Strategy

[Rerisen]

That's Gar Forman. He may be telling the truth and he might be lying through his teeth. His comments to the media have little value other than letting us know what the organization wants us to think. He is a very good press secretary.

That's true, but at the same time, his sell is not a hard one to buy as judged by what we know about how the Bulls operate in recent years.

I'd say December 15th is the date to watch. If we want to make moves to increase our lottery position, it doesn't make sense to wait till the trade deadline.

[dice]

i have zero problem with what gar forman says there. none. he's essentially saying they're we're still set up relatively well and he's not gonna make trades just to make trades. and he's 100% correct to think that way

[dice]

I'd say December 15th is the date to watch. If we want to make moves to increase our lottery position, it doesn't make sense to wait till the trade deadline.

we're highly unlikely to get any decent offers on dec. 15. teams are gonna try to screw us over at the beginning

[Rerisen]

I'd say December 15th is the date to watch. If we want to make moves to increase our lottery position, it doesn't make sense to wait till the trade deadline.

we're highly unlikely to get any decent offers on dec. 15. teams are gonna try to screw us over at the beginning

That has to be weighed against each passing day that your lottery position gets worse due to winning more games. At some point if x number of teams are below us and don't look catchable, maybe you just say heck with it and keep Deng with the hopeful intent no one else overpays him.

[wolffy]

So we obviously need to trade D Rose. This is sound logic.

[DJhitek]

OK, let's go with optimism. I'll flesh out the "do nothing" plan.

Chicago holds onto Deng and resigns him to a deal that makes everyone here puke.
Chicago amnesties Boozer, allowing them to use the MLE.
Chicago signs Mirotic with that
Chicago gets the Charlotte pick at #15 and selects a combo guard
Chicago gets its own pick at #14 and selects a center

Team
Rose / Combo guy taken at 15
Butler / Snell
Deng / Dunleavey
Mirotic / Gibson
Noah / center taken at 14

I challenge people to put together a realistic team likely better than that over the remainder of Rose's contract. The "do nothing" plan is probably the best one. If you are optimistic, then Rose comes back well, Mirotic is a stud and the draft picks contribute in limited minutes.

The full on tank plan requires you to burn the roster to the ground. Even if it nets you a top 3 pick, then you likely have to spend years training that guy and rebuilding the roster. You probably lose Thibodeau in the process. The full on tank plan is the worst plan.

You can't find a better plan that results in 60 win regular seasons and second round exit. Let's be real here, we were one piece away both years but the biggest factor was health. Even if you assume Rose comes back to his peak or close to it, this team will always be health dependent and I'm not sure you can bank on that anymore.

I'd rather roll with a chance at a Parker/Wiggins/etc. and Mirotic and Rose as the base than any other scenario. I'm not on the full-tank mode like everyone else is, but I'm all for moving Noah and letting Deng expire. This model does not work, nothing in the past disputes that, we never stay healthy enough to realize the full potential.

[McBulls]

So we obviously need to trade D Rose. This is sound logic.

I'm afraid no one would offer much in exchange. But if they did, I'd jump on it.

The experiment with having a PG as a first option is a demonstrable failure. Even if Rose recovers next year, which is unlikely IMO, the problem of building a championship team around a PG remains. Miami has shown the way how to defend such a team, and every other NBA team was taking notes.

If LA or Brooklyn makes a reasonable offer for Rose -- take it, and keep the rest of the team.

If you want to blow things up and clear cap space, there's the way.

[dice]

OK, let's go with optimism. I'll flesh out the "do nothing" plan.

Chicago holds onto Deng and resigns him to a deal that makes everyone here puke.
Chicago amnesties Boozer, allowing them to use the MLE.
Chicago signs Mirotic with that
Chicago gets the Charlotte pick at #15 and selects a combo guard
Chicago gets its own pick at #14 and selects a center

Team
Rose / Combo guy taken at 15
Butler / Snell
Deng / Dunleavey
Mirotic / Gibson
Noah / center taken at 14

I challenge people to put together a realistic team likely better than that over the remainder of Rose's contract. The "do nothing" plan is probably the best one. If you are optimistic, then Rose comes back well, Mirotic is a stud and the draft picks contribute in limited minutes.

The full on tank plan requires you to burn the roster to the ground. Even if it nets you a top 3 pick, then you likely have to spend years training that guy and rebuilding the roster. You probably lose Thibodeau in the process. The full on tank plan is the worst plan.

You can't find a better plan that results in 60 win regular seasons and second round exit. Let's be real here

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life and the team that coldfish hypothesizes is better then the one that played the heat tough in the eastern conference FINALS

we were one piece away both years but the biggest factor was health. Even if you assume Rose comes back to his peak or close to it, this team will always be health dependent and I'm not sure you can bank on that anymore

you can't bank on that no matter what you do personnel-wise

[G I N T]

I think that might be part of the problem on the board right now.

We need some clarity around here: do you (not you, but people in general) want to Nuke the team, tank this season, mini-tank by just trading Deng?

Seems like all the tanking talk is just riling people up, when many seem to have different ideas of what the word means.

I would guess most people are advocating a semi-tank of sorts. Standing pat this season, given the news of Rose's second straight season-ending (and potentially career-changing) injury, is just dumb and will cripple this team's future. While a full-blown firesale is not such a bad idea given the talent of this draft class and given the possibility that the Bulls no longer have a superstar level player they can build around, realistically I don't think we can expect the Bulls front office to attempt this. So at the very least, they should be making moves (trading Deng) to make the Bulls bad enough to finish with the 8th, 9th or 10th worst record in the league. There have been cases of teams defying the odds that were slotted to draft 9th, 10th or 11th and jumping all the way up to #1 or the top 3. And even if you don't get a top 3 pick, a top 10 pick is a faaar better outcome than foolishly winning 38 games, getting demolished in the 1st round, and not having a useful draft pick to show for it. Plenty of high-impact players have been drafted in the 9-11 range - Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, Joakim Noah, Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson, Amare, Caron Butler, Andrew Bynum, JJ Redick, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki. Far more likely you get an impact player with a lottery pick than by making the playoffs and getting squashed early.

[blumeany]

If Gar Forman honestly believes in his heart that there is no need for a dramatic roster change, he has to be the dumbest GM in the league. I think all the other GM's would look and say 'yes, there is a need for a dramatic roster change'. I have to believe that all he is doing with these recent interviews is putting up a facade of the Bulls wanted to keep the team together to *hopefully* not allow the team to get taken advantage of in a trade.

[AirP.]

That's the historical odds. It's get Tim Duncan or... a whole lot of hurt. And most everyone else whose done it, has got the hurt. If Rose is really still a top 5 player, then you can instantly contend again next year, which would make dismantling the team pretty silly.

Well San Antonio didn't tank with effort, they tanked by signing D.Wilkens in the twilight of his career to have a sideshow while they played with lesser talent(of course you're going to be much worse losing a David Robinson).

I don't want to Chicago give up on their effort or trying to lose, but I do want to see them not make the playoffs(if Rose isn't coming back this season) to get another quality body to go with Rose, Butler, Noah, Taj, Mitrovic, MDJ and possibly Deng(as 7 of your top 8).... I do believe that's a championship quality rotation if healthy... and if Rose is only 80% of his old self(which is still a top 10 PG). Just draft a defensive center and sign a veteran PG to back up Rose.

Tanking and getting a lottery player next year really would push the roster chances at a championship much higher.

[micromonkey]

If you don't trade Deng and he walks for nothing you have compounded your losses.

Not only did you lose Deng for not even a 2nd round pick or prospect but you probably lost quite a few draft slots in the process. You lost developmental time for players like Snell.

Triple pain for no good reason except Mule-like stubbornness--to do what? Grab a playoff seat to ensure you get bounced hard by MIA or IND?

It's the band playing while the titanic sinks. Hit me Lu--love the way you play the sax!
Shabadoodadeedat--boom bap wow!

[SpinninHouse]

OK, let's go with optimism. I'll flesh out the "do nothing" plan.

Chicago holds onto Deng and resigns him to a deal that makes everyone here puke.
Chicago amnesties Boozer, allowing them to use the MLE.
Chicago signs Mirotic with that
Chicago gets the Charlotte pick at #15 and selects a combo guard
Chicago gets its own pick at #14 and selects a center

Team
Rose / Combo guy taken at 15
Butler / Snell
Deng / Dunleavey
Mirotic / Gibson
Noah / center taken at 14

I challenge people to put together a realistic team likely better than that over the remainder of Rose's contract. The "do nothing" plan is probably the best one. If you are optimistic, then Rose comes back well, Mirotic is a stud and the draft picks contribute in limited minutes.

The full on tank plan requires you to burn the roster to the ground. Even if it nets you a top 3 pick, then you likely have to spend years training that guy and rebuilding the roster. You probably lose Thibodeau in the process. The full on tank plan is the worst plan.

You can't find a better plan that results in 60 win regular seasons and second round exit. Let's be real here, we were one piece away both years but the biggest factor was health. Even if you assume Rose comes back to his peak or close to it, this team will always be health dependent and I'm not sure you can bank on that anymore.

I'd rather roll with a chance at a Parker/Wiggins/etc. and Mirotic and Rose as the base than any other scenario. I'm not on the full-tank mode like everyone else is, but I'm all for moving Noah and letting Deng expire. This model does not work, nothing in the past disputes that, we never stay healthy enough to realize the full potential.

Coldfish - Love you as a poster (one of our very best) but you have just laid out a scenario that ensures us not winning a title in the next 5-10 years. That is not a scenario I'm willing to accept.

The biggest problem is you have penciled in Derrick Rose as the starting PG. In all probability, Rose will never play 50+ games in a single season ever again. And if he does, it will be with limited use/impact (ie Grant Hill). The team you designed is not good enough to win even with the "old" Derrick -- even more problematic because the "old" Derrick is gone forever.

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

I'm not willing to accept a scenario that ensures we do not win a title. I'd rather blow this team to ashes and at least have some possibility of grabbing a franchise player. The blow up scenario has at least "a" chance, which is better than no chance.

[Action Paxson]

Coldfish - Love you as a poster (one of our very best) but you have just laid out a scenario that ensures us not winning a title in the next 5-10 years. That is not a scenario I'm willing to accept.

The biggest problem is you have penciled in Derrick Rose as the starting PG. In all probability, Rose will never play 50+ games in a single season ever again. And if he does, it will be with limited use/impact (ie Grant Hill). The team you designed is not good enough to win even with the "old" Derrick -- even more problematic because the "old" Derrick is gone forever.

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

I'm not willing to accept a scenario that ensures we do not win a title. I'd rather blow this team to ashes and at least have some possibility of grabbing a franchise player. The blow up scenario has at least "a" chance, which is better than no chance.

I'm not quite as pessimistic with you about Rose, but I agree with your general sentiment. Even if Rose comes back as a to 20-25 player, like Deron Williams or Damian Lillard for example, this group in nowhere near championship caliber. The new CBA does not allow you to create a balanced team that can contend. As coldfish has mentioned you need a top 2 player. I can talk myself into a top 10 guy, with a top 20 guy and a team with great shooting and defense can be an NBA powerhouse. Many of us thought Rose was going to be that number 1 guy. I think he will ultimately need to be a number 2 if he wants to be an NBA champ. Now is the time to take that chance and see if you can transcend the franchise (again).

[TOMSPY77]

Do people not realize that we still have Derrick Rose? As long as he can come back and be somewhat close to his former MVP self this team will not suck for a long time. Not to mention the kid Mirotic will be another talented young player coming over next year as well. He's essentially a top 10 draft talent. I don't get this notion that tanking is somehow a bad strategy for this team. Name me a better alternative?

These are my feelings as well.

If Rose can even be 80% of what he was in his MVP year, we bring over Mirototic after Boozer gets the boot, we trade Luol before the deadline cause I'm not sure he would have been back anyway for a young piece hopefully with a pick if we can find a team to give one up and we rebuild on the go.

We still would have more then decent pieces (that IMHO might take a year yo gel and putty in the small cracks in the rotation and strategy) to contend and be very competitive.

Sure, the tank method is a risk but it is not as much of a risk for us as it is for most teams. I know Miami got burned with the number two in 2008 but honestly, that is the risk of the draft itself, not tanking.

[Rerisen]

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life

It would be fascinating to see how people's perception about the Bulls and team build would get blown up if Indy were to beat Miami this year.

Would we suddenly stop needing a second superstar, while people got busy about the new paradigm, building a team that could 'out Indy, Indy' via spread out talent?

[kyrv]

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life

It would be fascinating to see how people's perception about the Bulls and team build would get blown up if Indy were to beat Miami this year.

Would we suddenly stop needing a second superstar, while people got busy about the new paradigm: building a team that could 'out Indy, Indy' via spread out talent.

You are both correct.

[Rerisen]

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

If Rose is 'out of the equation' you aren't winning a title despite him anyway, not while he is hogging 30% of the team's cap space. Just impossible.

[micromonkey]

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life

It would be fascinating to see how people's perception about the Bulls and team build would get blown up if Indy were to beat Miami this year.

Would we suddenly stop needing a second superstar, while people got busy about the new paradigm, building a team that could 'out Indy, Indy' via spread out talent?

Should not change it at all. Indy is closer to a finals team than we would have been even with Rose this year.

I think the second star is overdone--but you do need multiple "significant" positive offensive players who are not overly reliant on others to create for them (typically it's a "star" or the player is later thought of as one). Almost the entire Pacers team is around 50% assisted wheras the Bulls are 60%+

Even today Indy has multiple offensive contributors with at least basic shot creation skills and we had only one.

The heat have a limited shelf life but having multiple creators and an offense closer to a historical finals team (108 ish ortg) probably won't ever go out of style. Even the Pistons had Rip and Billups. With Rose and not even a Kyle Korver we were/are trying to go against all of NBA finals history.

I'm not saying blow up--just look at past finals teams and see where we don't fit the "mold" and adjust accordingly. Indy is also currently rolling out a historically good defense--so they have already surpassed us at "our" own game. So if they do it this year--they will be doing the Pistons formula even better than the pistons did it.

[SpinninHouse]

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

If Rose is 'out of the equation' you aren't winning a title despite him anyway, not while he is hogging 30% of the team's cap space. Just impossible.

Rose's contract expires in 3 years. We're not winning a title in the next years - regardless. That's why it is so imperative to blow it up and try to get a franchise player. When his rookie contract is close to expiring, Rose will be off the books.

We need to blow the team up down to the ashes.