Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[noworriesinmd]

I wrote about this topic a few weeks ago over at the blog. I think nate is right about the Wizards basically peaking now. They're in a situation where they don't have a real way to ADD talent. Signing a "brand name" (high-priced) free agent will mean the departure of players that are part of their current core. There's just no way around it. This offseason they'll have to choose between re-signing their key free agents (Gortat and Ariza) or REPLACING them with other players. And, they probably won't have a first round pick next year.

Plus, there's no guarantee they can keep either of those guys -- they're both unrestricted free agents.

Any improvement the team makes will come from a) the marginal difference between Gortat, Ariza and the team's other departing free agents and the new players they're able to acquire, and/or b) better production from the young players currently on the roster.

One of the issues I addressed in my blog post was this: Why would a free agent sign with the Wizards? He cannot JOIN a playoff team -- his arrival will mean the departure of Gortat and/or Ariza. At best, he can only replace one (or both) of those guys. The team will still lack depth of talent. I guess the hope has to be that free agents might be attracted to the notion of playing with young players like Wall, Beal and Porter. That could happen. But, it's a narrow path to becoming a contender. Unnecessarily narrow, in my view.

The words that come to mind when I think of the team Grunfeld has constructed (and its long-term prospects): "house of cards."

Well said, I could not have said this better.....this is the gist of what I was thinking about yesterday.
Is EG worth it?

I'm Not sure, because how can you add a GOOD FA + keep Gortat and Ariza?

Has this team peaked this year, because next year most teams will have reloaded vs us having a difficult road to improve because we can loose two our out best players with zero draft picks.

Oka-Riza was supposed to be trade-bait / expirings, but do you really want to give up Ariza? Can Porter really replace his production....Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose thought he had this biggest bust potential in the draft ( I have no idea)
Okafor was let got for a 1st rd draft pick and a player that might not be here next year and if he does resign, will seriously hurt our cap situation.

Our BIG signing next year will be Gortat {& Ariza}, vs adding more talent. That sounds like staying the same.

The road our team has to travel is very narrow, and if we can't figure out Gorat & Ariza + adding a quality FA, we will not be a high seed next year...no matter how awesome our backcourt is.

Also, most of the max teams think they are contenders or have players they believe are superstars.

Just looking at his body of work and the future....I don't really like EG's legacy.

Just ask yourself one question...If EG was a financial advisor, would you invest money with him? Each year TL invests +50M with him.....even an idiot can get lucky for one year.

[hands11]

So your saying if nothing goes the Wizards way via trades or resigning and none of their players improves they have peaked this year.

Got it.

Considering so many here had us trading Trevor A last year and Webster walking, count me as not getting on board with that projection.

Now that the team has stopped the bleeding that was a really tough start of the year schedule and adding Gortat after preseason, I want to see what they do first. They are .500 first the first time since the rebuild started, but they are also a 7-2 run that looks like it could turn into 8-2 pretty easy. What will be important is, does that turn into 9-2 or 10-2 ?

A team that can do that starts to believe in bigger goals. Specially when it happen early in the season.

Then they go on a 4 game road trip against but its against NY, BRK, BOS, and MN. What if they come out of that 3-1 ? Now they would be on a 13-3 run. Well that's 81%

Once you start winning, the next set of games are always the most important. The season become a playoff race. Every game is important. Its a totally different level of intensity. Right now, if they can come out of the next 10 games at 6-4 or 7-3 (very doable) that puts them on a 13-6 or 14-5 run. That's a 70%-73% pace. About where they were when they had Wall, Beal and Nene last year.

Right now, I'm sure they are recalibrating their goals. They got to .500%. Goal reached. Now I'm sure Wittman is telling them, lets raise the bar and gun for a Division Title. Always set the next goal higher to strive for that to stay at maximum performance/focus.

So if that is the level this team can play at, bringing back what you have wouldn't be the worst move. Specially when you have young players like Wall and Beal that will get better and specially when you can make moves to clean up the bench to get better. The bench moves don't have to be huge moves, they just have to turn players like Booker, Kevin S, Singleton, and Glen into players that fit better. They need another big forward. Kevin is one but he needs more time to cook. Booker has some utility value. He can rebound. Lets see what Singleton can do. He just got back and Glen clearly has potential that has not been maximized yet. Hell, if all they did was trade Kevin S for Crawford they would be better. There will be a move or two that make sense.

Point is, you can project the worse and that might happen. You can also sit back and wait to see how good this current group really is. A group that is currently on a 9-2 run and they are getting Beal and Otto back soon so they should actually get better and finally have a better bench. And they can still make moves to improve the bench. And Wall and Beal aren't done improving. Wall might be around 65-70% as good as he can get. Beal about 55-60%% as good as he can get. And Otto at 0% as good as he can get. Its not like the team doesn't have any upside.

Competing as a top 10 team in the league is where Wall and Beal will forge their steal. That would be the next step for them. If they can do that this year and actually win a playoff series, I could consider that a successful season. And if they can do that, it might actually make sense to keep the group together even if it means using the cap to do it. Being at a LAC, Denver, Houston level wouldn't suck for now. Then you have options. Better front office people would be interested in coming here when Ted is ready to make a move.

We should know a ton more after the next 10 games.

[payitforward]

...how does Indy ... keep Lance ? How much is he going to cost ? Specially if he plays big in the playoffs. What if he leaves, then what. They are already at 65M without signing him.

He's not going to command as much as you think -- the curse of being picked in round 2, esp. if you've been viewed as having a character problem.

Are they going to let Granger walk and get nothing ?

...except cap room. Sure. An overrated player to say the least.

...No path to keep it going without busting the cap to keep Lance and they still have no path to replace West and Scola.

And they gave up their first in 2014 for Scola who again is 33

What a dead end franchise.

Shell we review the dead end Miami Heat next or the cap busted dead end Knicks ? Maybe the mega cap busted dead end Nets.

Hands, man, no team has a currently-visible path to keep it going forever! And a team that's won a bunch of titles before having to rebuild (Miami) can hardly be called dead-end!! Wow.

Knicks and Brooklyn are both dead, however -- and they lie there rotting too!

But, Indiana will be fine. Given who the current Denver GM is (a Grunfeld protege), they'll probably deal Granger for Faried!!

[payitforward]

I wrote about this topic a few weeks ago over at the blog. I think nate is right about the Wizards basically peaking now. They're in a situation where they don't have a real way to ADD talent. Signing a "brand name" (high-priced) free agent will mean the departure of players that are part of their current core. There's just no way around it. This offseason they'll have to choose between re-signing their key free agents (Gortat and Ariza) or REPLACING them with other players. And, they probably won't have a first round pick next year.

Plus, there's no guarantee they can keep either of those guys -- they're both unrestricted free agents.

Any improvement the team makes will come from a) the marginal difference between Gortat, Ariza and the team's other departing free agents and the new players they're able to acquire, and/or b) better production from the young players currently on the roster.

One of the issues I addressed in my blog post was this: Why would a free agent sign with the Wizards? He cannot JOIN a playoff team -- his arrival will mean the departure of Gortat and/or Ariza. At best, he can only replace one (or both) of those guys. The team will still lack depth of talent. I guess the hope has to be that free agents might be attracted to the notion of playing with young players like Wall, Beal and Porter. That could happen. But, it's a narrow path to becoming a contender. Unnecessarily narrow, in my view.

The words that come to mind when I think of the team Grunfeld has constructed (and its long-term prospects): "house of cards."

You and I are almost always in agreement, Kev (proving what an intelligent fellow you are!), and your analysis is on the money. Yet... it's incomplete. We have limited flexibility, but there are always underestimated, solid players available to fill out a roster and keep improving. And Round 2 of the draft always contains gems. So there are ways to get younger and better.

But, they depend on a good GM, whereas we have an incompetent FO. More concretely, having blown the 2010 draft (after the pick of Wall), the 2011 draft (all 3 picks!), the 2012 round 2, and the 2013 round 2 -- we don't have the young core to propel us to be contenders. Having made idiotic trades and FA acquisitions (w/ a couple of exceptions to be sure...), we've thrown away most of the assets that could have made that possible.

Still.... An outstanding GM could rescue this situation.

[leswizards]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

[nate33]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

No, it's not possible.

Our pick is top 12 protected. If we make the playoffs we will not be picking lower than 15. (The lottery is composed solely of the 14 non-playoff teams, regardless of record.)

[leswizards]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

No, it's not possible.

Our pick is top 12 protected. If we make the playoffs we will not be picking lower than 15. (The lottery is composed solely of the 14 non-playoff teams, regardless of record.)

I am not sure what you are saying. I am saying that if the Wizards make the playoffs with 35 wins, they have lost the pick. What you say is confirming, not refuting what I have posted.

[FAH1223]

If you want to see how it's done, check out San Antonio. It's truly remarkable. They're going to have max cap room next summer even though their top 7 players (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Splitter, Green, Leonard, Bellineli) are under contract. Yes, you heard that right. They're going to be capable of ADDING a MAX PLAYER to their Finals contenting core. Now THAT is cap management. (Note, there's a rumor going around that they are eyeing Gortat. So that could be a problem for us.)

Wow.

[nate33]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

No, it's not possible.

Our pick is top 12 protected. If we make the playoffs we will not be picking lower than 15. (The lottery is composed solely of the 14 non-playoff teams, regardless of record.)

I am not sure what you are saying. I am saying that if the Wizards make the playoffs with 35 wins, they have lost the pick. What you say is confirming, not refuting what I have posted.

Sorry. You are right. Reading comprehension fail.

[nuposse04]

I don't buy the peaking argument. Wall, Beal and Porter should all get considerably better...wall might get incrementally better as he approaches he moves past his mid 20s. Ariza/Webster will be who they are now for at least another 3-4 years as I suspect the same with Gortat. The issue is Nene...The FO needs to develop a plan to replace his production. I think Our young 3 top 3 picks increase in overall productivity might be offset by Nene's decline in 2 years (I think in some ways he is "declining" but he's still an above average player out there). So while I'm concerned that we don't have an Ersan or T. Young to replace Nene, I think it is something we can overcome this season if Porter proves to meet his pedigree and we maximize Ariza's trade value.

Of course we got to see how Porter plays out over the next month.

Oh, yeah and **** ERNIE UP THE ASS

[FAH1223]

I don't buy the peaking argument. Wall, Beal and Porter should all get considerably better...wall might get incrementally better as he approaches he moves past his mid 20s. Ariza/Webster will be who they are now for at least another 3-4 years as I suspect the same with Gortat. The issue is Nene...The FO needs to develop a plan to replace his production. I think Our young 3 top 3 picks increase in overall productivity might be offset by Nene's decline in 2 years (I think in some ways he is "declining" but he's still an above average player out there). So while I'm concerned that we don't have an Ersan or T. Young to replace Nene, I think it is something we can overcome this season if Porter proves to meet his pedigree and we maximize Ariza's trade value.

Of course we got to see how Porter plays out over the next month.

Oh, yeah and **** ERNIE UP THE ASS

It's not about our young players of Wall/Beal/Porter peaking, its about the collective team.

How does this team get better buy using all of the cap on veterans who aren't going to get any better? We also don't have a 1st rounder next year to add to the bench.

The allocation of resources is the reason why this franchise will take a step back next year and that may be when Ted finally realizes he has an idiot in the front office.

[montestewart]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

Don't forget, it's also very possible to miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Best of both worlds. And EG extended would cap another perfect season.

[fishercob]

No. Because Ernie has built an unsustainable roster that is good only because it pays big money to role players and it benefits from 2 no-brainer high picks who are temporarily outperforming their salary because they are on rookie deals.

The cracks will start to show next year when Wall starts being paid his max salary. We will be able to keep our core 6 players and Porter together, but the rest of the roster will have to be minimum salary guys, which means no depth. (Admittedly, this won't be a big change because we have no depth now thanks to the fact that Ernie's Kids all stink. We will merely be replacing Ernie's Kids with D-Leaguers and walk-ons.)

The spit really hits the fan in 2016 when Beal is up for an extension. Basically, we will lose Nene and we will have no way of replacing him.

The team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.

I think this line of thinking discounts the role of timing, luck, and just how dynamic things can be in the NBA.

Just based on our existing roster today, the range of possible outcomes is huge depending on the how good Wall, Beal, and Porter become. This year we will likely be without a first round pick. But we have all our future firsts and we have New Orleans' 2nd this year. If one of those "hits" maybe it becomes a core piece or a key asset in a transformational trade.

It's presumptuous to say that signing Gortat means we won't have cap room to sign a top tier free agent. Maybe we have to pay someone off with a draft pick to pay him, but that could be worth it.

Look, I hate Ernie as a GM and I've been sorely disappointed by Leonsis as an owner. But PIF Is right -- this situation is manageable. I pray that Ted rewards Ernie for his service and gives him the Bruce Allen role this summer, and then goes and hires a better GM. I don't buy the peaking bit. Not yet at least.

[nuposse04]

I don't buy the peaking argument. Wall, Beal and Porter should all get considerably better...wall might get incrementally better as he approaches he moves past his mid 20s. Ariza/Webster will be who they are now for at least another 3-4 years as I suspect the same with Gortat. The issue is Nene...The FO needs to develop a plan to replace his production. I think Our young 3 top 3 picks increase in overall productivity might be offset by Nene's decline in 2 years (I think in some ways he is "declining" but he's still an above average player out there). So while I'm concerned that we don't have an Ersan or T. Young to replace Nene, I think it is something we can overcome this season if Porter proves to meet his pedigree and we maximize Ariza's trade value.

Of course we got to see how Porter plays out over the next month.

Oh, yeah and **** ERNIE UP THE ASS

It's not about our young players of Wall/Beal/Porter peaking, its about the collective team.

How does this team get better buy using all of the cap on veterans who aren't going to get any better? We also don't have a 1st rounder next year to add to the bench.

The allocation of resources is the reason why this franchise will take a step back next year and that may be when Ted finally realizes he has an idiot in the front office.

I'm not going to argue that the allocation of resources has been "good" or even average for that matter but regarding the other core pieces sans Nene, how much better do you expect them to be? Ariza is playing phenomenally well for his standards and webster seems still to be legit. While Gortat isn't a top 5 center he's holding his own and should do so for the next 3 seasons. What I do agree with is that has been a catastrophic failure in our drafting of bigs. We REALLY needed one of Seraphin/Jan/Booker to become starting quality players so they could offset Nene 3-4 years from now. They haven't, so we're semi screwed. EG would have to find a gem in the '15 class cause I figure we ought to be a little better next season then we are now so we may actually pick in the 20s.

I still think the future is salvageable though via an Ariza trade. They can go hard on win now mode and try to get a quality backup Center and PG or (what I would prefer) try to acquire Ersan or T. Young, both of whom, should be starting quality 4s for the next 4-5 years.

[montestewart]

No. Because Ernie has built an unsustainable roster that is good only because it pays big money to role players and it benefits from 2 no-brainer high picks who are temporarily outperforming their salary because they are on rookie deals.

The cracks will start to show next year when Wall starts being paid his max salary. We will be able to keep our core 6 players and Porter together, but the rest of the roster will have to be minimum salary guys, which means no depth. (Admittedly, this won't be a big change because we have no depth now thanks to the fact that Ernie's Kids all stink. We will merely be replacing Ernie's Kids with D-Leaguers and walk-ons.)

The spit really hits the fan in 2016 when Beal is up for an extension. Basically, we will lose Nene and we will have no way of replacing him.

The team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.

I think this line of thinking discounts the role of timing, luck, and just how dynamic things can be in the NBA.

Just based on our existing roster today, the range of possible outcomes is huge depending on the how good Wall, Beal, and Porter become. This year we will likely be without a first round pick. But we have all our future firsts and we have New Orleans' 2nd this year. If one of those "hits" maybe it becomes a core piece or a key asset in a transformational trade.

It's presumptuous to say that signing Gortat means we won't have cap room to sign a top tier free agent. Maybe we have to pay someone off with a draft pick to pay him, but that could be worth it.

Look, I hate Ernie as a GM and I've been sorely disappointed by Leonsis as an owner. But PIF Is right -- this situation is manageable. I pray that Ted rewards Ernie for his service and gives him the Bruce Allen role this summer, and then goes and hires a better GM. I don't buy the peaking bit. Not yet at least.

Yes, it is a dynamic arena, and it calls for a dynamic and visionary manager. With the right leader running the show and trying to undo damage, I can see this team turning around (so I guess I don't fully buy the peaking bit either). But as long as EG is making the decisions, I'll assume that every decision, big or small, is probably making things worse.

[fishercob]

No. Because Ernie has built an unsustainable roster that is good only because it pays big money to role players and it benefits from 2 no-brainer high picks who are temporarily outperforming their salary because they are on rookie deals.

The cracks will start to show next year when Wall starts being paid his max salary. We will be able to keep our core 6 players and Porter together, but the rest of the roster will have to be minimum salary guys, which means no depth. (Admittedly, this won't be a big change because we have no depth now thanks to the fact that Ernie's Kids all stink. We will merely be replacing Ernie's Kids with D-Leaguers and walk-ons.)

The spit really hits the fan in 2016 when Beal is up for an extension. Basically, we will lose Nene and we will have no way of replacing him.

The team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.

I think this line of thinking discounts the role of timing, luck, and just how dynamic things can be in the NBA.

Just based on our existing roster today, the range of possible outcomes is huge depending on the how good Wall, Beal, and Porter become. This year we will likely be without a first round pick. But we have all our future firsts and we have New Orleans' 2nd this year. If one of those "hits" maybe it becomes a core piece or a key asset in a transformational trade.

It's presumptuous to say that signing Gortat means we won't have cap room to sign a top tier free agent. Maybe we have to pay someone off with a draft pick to pay him, but that could be worth it.

Look, I hate Ernie as a GM and I've been sorely disappointed by Leonsis as an owner. But PIF Is right -- this situation is manageable. I pray that Ted rewards Ernie for his service and gives him the Bruce Allen role this summer, and then goes and hires a better GM. I don't buy the peaking bit. Not yet at least.

Yes, it is a dynamic arena, and it calls for a dynamic and visionary manager. With the right leader running the show and trying to undo damage, I can see this team turning around (so I guess I don't fully buy the peaking bit either). But as long as EG is making the decisions, I'll assume that every decision, big or small, is probably making things worse.

monte, I hate Ernie as a GM, but that's not fair.

Ernie stole Martell Webster off the free agent heap last year and appears to have gotten him for a bargain with his contract this summer.

Ariza, who is now being referred to as part of our core, was part of what was seemingly the worst trade in sports history.

He's had more misses than hits, but he's had some hits -- even recently.

[DCZards]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

And if the Zards resign Gortat they will have likely locked up a player who is more productive and more instrumental to building a contender than a mid-first round pick.

There's a lot of reasons to fire EG but I don't think the trade for Gortat is one of them.

[leswizards]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

And if the Zards resign Gortat they will have likely locked up a player who is more productive and more instrumental to building a contender than a mid-first round pick.

There's a lot of reasons to fire EG but I don't think the trade for Gortat is one of them.

Signing Gortat is completely independent of whether they traded for him or not. As bad as the east is this year, the Wizards could have kept Okafor, strive to win half their games which should be good enough to make the playoffs this year, and then sign Gortat in the off season. Had they done this, they would have had a pretty good shot at getting everything (ie, the playoffs, Gortat, and the first round pick).

Basically they are renting Gortat for a season to help them make the playoffs when they should be able to achieve that goal without him.

[fishercob]

I like Gortat, but we traded for him from a position of weakness -- that's why we were forced into giving up the pick.

Why were we in a position of weakness? Because we had no depth up front.

Why did we have no depth of up front? Because Seraphin, Vesely, and Booker have all been somewhere between horrible and mediocre, and because we gave the BAE to Eric Maynor when we could have given it to Dajuan Blair.

I like the Gortat acquisition in a vacuum, but it's a clear illustration of how poorly Ernie has managed assets. I am hoping that we get lucky such that losing one mid-first round pick doesn't come back to bite us in the ass all that hard.

[nate33]

he team you see right now is at it's peak. Maybe we win 50 games in a pathetic East if we stay reasonably healthy. We will plateau as Nene and Gortat's decline offset any improvement out of Wall and Beal. Nene's healthy is sure to be a big concern going forward. We will never get much better. We are pretty much the Atlanta Hawks now. Respectable, but never a threat to compete. Only we are pushing the luxtax just to maintain it.

I think this line of thinking discounts the role of timing, luck, and just how dynamic things can be in the NBA.

Just based on our existing roster today, the range of possible outcomes is huge depending on the how good Wall, Beal, and Porter become. This year we will likely be without a first round pick. But we have all our future firsts and we have New Orleans' 2nd this year. If one of those "hits" maybe it becomes a core piece or a key asset in a transformational trade.

It's presumptuous to say that signing Gortat means we won't have cap room to sign a top tier free agent. Maybe we have to pay someone off with a draft pick to pay him, but that could be worth it.

Look, I hate Ernie as a GM and I've been sorely disappointed by Leonsis as an owner. But PIF Is right -- this situation is manageable. I pray that Ted rewards Ernie for his service and gives him the Bruce Allen role this summer, and then goes and hires a better GM. I don't buy the peaking bit. Not yet at least.

There's always the chance that luck plays a role and we find a steal late in the draft. But let's face it, we're going to be picking in the 16-24 range for the next few years, you can't plan on finding difference making starters when you pick so low. I'd say the chances of us lucking to the upside are probably less than us lucking to the downside with some kind of career-ending injury or major regression to one of our core players.

I disagree with the notion that things can be "managed". Management implies there is a specific plan of action to get us from point A to point B. From where we are now, there's no realistic "plan" we could put together now that makes us materially better than we are now. All we can do is try to hold it together for a while and hope something falls into our laps from out of left field. There's no reason to be particularly optimistic.

I'm not saying it's a disaster. Certainly there are worse positions to be in than to have a top 20ish star player and 45-52 win team for the next few years. At least we're not in 35-win purgatory with no exciting stars to draw fans.