Official 2014 Offseason Thread

[Quake Griffin]

ima big boy.

I view Kemp as finished and not having any tool that earned him his deal.
Lee as a guy who will never see the majors with us...Chris Anderson will make it before him.
Seager as the guy people would want in the deal.

i viewed the potential of the deal as tieing up our loose ends at 3B, giving us a great defensive CF but most importantly....it would move a lot of money on Kemp's behalf...would give us more bargaining power and we wouldn't look as desperate when we tried to move Crawford's money.

i figure...if we can't get someone to take all of Kemp n Crawford's money...i'll settle with someone taking half of each...which would be around 100 million.

[Neddy]

Lee that you remember is probably the one a year ago, who constantly struggled through the minors and disappointing the expectations. Zach Lee of last season however, finally broke through and is a legitimate prospect who is close to the majors.

his WHIP a year ago between A+and AA 1.331. last season at AA, 1.171
his total innings a year ago, 121.0, last season at AA, 142.2
his FIP a year ago, 4.03 at A+, 3.89 at AA. last season at AA, 3.37

zach is not going to become an ace at the majors, but he is very close to what chad billingsley was at the same age, although chad was doing it at AAA. i think zach is going to be a decent #2, good #3, and a great 4 or 5 starter in the majors. with his contract being paid upfront, his first few years in the majors is going to be one of the most valuable contracts for a team with bloated, wasted contracts.

as far as kemp, i am okay with trading him if we get some assets back, but he is at all time low with his trade value, we would be selling very low. i think it's wiser to let him rest the next year and keep all outfielders, run ethier and joc out to center field and let crawford and van slyke platoon at LF. puig will man the RF. once ethier or joc boost up their trade value, we make a deal at the end of next year, bring back healthy and well rested kemp back for 2015 and see if he can get just 3/4 of his old self back and he should be worth his contract more than crawford or ethier. but that is just one of my many opinions.

[Quake Griffin]

Fair...we do have to figure out 3rd base though....that and dropping some salary.


Hanley says we're working on an extension.
he'll be 30 by the end of this year if he didn't just turn 30.
Lord, I don't want to sign him to a long term deal...but damn his bat was so elite last year...we practically didn't hit without him.

[Quake Griffin]

we did not tender Bellisario a contract.

feels good man.

[Neddy]

yeah good luck to him in chicago, and he even got a big raise.

things are turning up interesting, the Mariners got a 2 billion dollar TV rights money and they are spending. they signed Cano for 10 year deal (which i am 100% sure it won't end well) for 240 million, and after beltran going to the yanks, M's are still looking to sign OBP machine Choo. if M's do indeed sign Choo, they will not have a need to trade for Kemp or Ethier, and rather they will jump on the David Price trade AND Tanaka posting process.

here it the problem for the dodgers if what i proposed above happens.

#1, we can't dump kemp or ethier for a value. Mariners needed a middle of the order guy along with a better OBP table setters either in 1 or 2 in the lineup, Cano will allow Morales and Seager to drop down, and Choo will provide more than .100 OBP than miller, and more than .130 OBP than franklin on top of the order. also, they won't need nick franklin as Cano will take over at 2nd, and CHoo will also displace pea shooter saunders and endy chavez won't be needed, dustin ackley is their future CF and now, Choo goes to RF, they can bring back older yet still very productive Raul Ibanez at a very cheap deal without giving up a single prospect, and since Morales is their DH, there is no room or need for Kemp or Ethier anymore.

#2 now instead, we gained a dangerous rival in David Price trade. they have more of what the Rays want than we do. they are more willing to part with more, and better prospects than we do. Taijuan Walker is a much better prospect with higher ceiling that is more major league ready than any of our pitching prospects including Lee. they can ship out a bunch of young position players and bullpen pitchers who are already at the major level along with Walker for Price, and Taijuan is the most prized pitching prospect in the market that can replace Price in the future for the Rays. and the M's are willing to do this trade in a heartbeat since their #1 draft pick is protected this year, so they will only lose out the 2nd rounder.

#3. the new posting system between the US and Japan has created a major problem for us. instead of the old system where the highest bidder of the posting fee gets to negotiate with the player that is posted by the japanese club, now there is a 20 million dollar cap for all teams and the player gets to choose who he wants to negotiate with. the problem here is that the Rakueten Golden Eagles who holds Tanaka's rights for 2 more years, just lost out up to 80 million of the posting fees, from being discussed going up to 100 million for posting fee alone, now to capped posting fee of 20. they have already made news in Japan that they will not post Tanaka and will try to play him in Japan at least 1 more year and post again, but if they still don't like the return, they can still keep him there for yet 1 more season until they lose him to FA without anything in return. 20 million dollars for a taiwanese club would mean a lot, but for a Japanese club, that money doesn't do much and surely isn't worth losing your ace that just won the Japanese Championship for your franchise for the first time ever. but here is 1 catch. the parent company that owns the Mariners are none other than the Nintendo Corp. Rakueten Corp i believe is a software developing company, and have other business relationship with the Nintendo outside of the baseball. they can easily have an "under the table" handshake and do each other a favor and we will never know. possibly give away some lucrative contracts to rakeuten and the golden eagles give away Tanaka to M's? i think unless the Golden Eagles do not post Tanaka and hang on to him, the scenario above is very possible and we could potentially see the best rotation of the major league sprouting up in Seattle (Felix-Price-Iwakuma-Tanaka) instead of in dodger blue.

oh and BTW, Iwakuma and Tanaka are former teammates from the Rakeuten Golden Eagles, and Tanaka has been quoted in Japanese and Korean news outlets as having a great relationship with Iwakuma and credits him for being a part his own development.

[Quake Griffin]

i think we'll be able to move kemp as long as we take on some of his salary. He'd be the easiest to move because he's still under 30 and ppl might take him on because there might be some great baseball left in him.

wonder if the Angels will deal with us.
i wanna take a run at Howie Kendrick and move Guerrero to 3rd base.

[Neddy]

Angels needs pitching, not another overpaid center fielder who needs to move to a corner. they have hamilton who is on 9 digit contract who has underperformed, and mike trout who is outperforming that they need to worry about his raises through arbitrations and eventual extension. both plays center. they also have kole calhoun, who can crush the ball. he hit 8 HRs in 50 games last season. cole registered 800+ OPS. they still have JB Shuck who is a .300 batter. even mark trumbo can play some outfield and they are looking to trade him.

the more i am reading about the winter GM meeting, it looks like mariners aren't parting with taijuan walker for david price, and Ned is willing to part with zach lee and corey seager. uribe is most likely leaving for the state of florida where he has a 3 year offer and no state income tax. i think we need to go after JD's little brother stephen drew. hanley has already said he was very happy with the dodgers and willing to play any position we need him on, so move hanley to 3rd, keep guerrero at 2nd, and a defensive SS who bats left to fill the 7th or 8th in the order seems ideal to me.

also, i have been reading that it's not just 1 of our 4 outfielders Ned is shopping, but 2. both ethier and kemp are on the block. i guess that means we are going to see joc pederson come up next season to play CF or we are the darkhorse team in shinsoo choo's market.

[Quake Griffin]

my bad...i meant a farm arm for Kendrick...just one.
Guerrero to 3rd or SS.

Now that I know we've asked about David Price, I'll put that minor dream on hold and focus on this big fish. I would love to have David Price on my team....but he does need to be re-signed and he's gonna be worth $23-25 Ms per year. We'd have 3 pitchers at damn near $75 million. I mean. I can't say it wouldn't be great to have him. But say you just closed my eyes, didn't show me who the players were and told me we'd be spending nearly $100 Ms on starting pitching....id be totally against it.

with that said...IT'S NOT MY MONEY. When you get Christmas and Birthday gifts, it's rude to ask how much they cost. I'll take David Price.


Stephen Drew has a great glove...he has so much freaking range...but his at bats are just not competitive. I like AJ in our 8 hole....im confident in him and he'll pop out 10-12 HRs and draw walks from there. I don't want an automatic out there....but man, would Drew sure up the SS spot?.

Kemp's agent continues to stay in the media. He says talks at the winter meetings are active.
GREAT! just don't get swindled in a deal Ned.

[Quake Griffin]

Phillies fielding offers for Lee and Hamels.
White Sox listening on Sale.

BEAUTIFUL!
all left handers...should drive down the asking price for a David Price.

[Neddy]

i say forget david price at this point. they are insisting to include taijuan walker from the mariners' offer, that means they will demand not only both of our prized farm hands in zach lee and corey seager, but probably julio urias and more. that will immediately deplete our farm system for a few years.

better yet, i think it is wise to go for an older, but still lights out cliff lee. bring 35 years old, phillies won't expect more than say, zach lee and joc pederson, and possibly a major league ready back of the rotation guy like fife or magill. cliff lee measured to nearly 1.00 WHIP and below 3.00 ERA last season, and had better across the board stats than the year before, and i think with 3 years remaining on his contract, we can take that risk and sport Kershaw-Greinke-Lee-Ryu-Haren with Beckett and Billingsley as insurance for our rotation. i think that maybe the best in the majors.

as much as i love david price, i think his asking price is escalating each passing day, and i don't think he is worth the asking rate.

[Quake Griffin]

I'll give up Zach Lee...but not Joc Pederson. I'm srsly counting on the Dodgers getting that kid up to the majors this year.

btw, I can't remember if I was watching ESPN or MLB Network.
maybe ESPN. I think it was Olney who said the Dodgers aren't worried about how much of the contract teams take on when dealing our OFs, we just want a good prospect back.

after hearing that, I'm going to stop worrying about the money. If they aren't worried about the money, I won't be.

[Quake Griffin]

well, Ned says we aren't trading Kemp now.

nobody will touch Crawford.
goodnight sweet Ethier.

[Neddy]

well, i think we should be just as content to go into season with 4 OFers.

[Neddy]

while still searching for that old article i've read a year or so ago, i found this very disturbing article instead.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers ... trong.html

[Neddy]

Uribe is signed on for 2 more years. what are the odds that we see 2013 Uribe versus 2011-12 Uribe next season now that he has an extra year until his contract year again? we need to sign michael young for 1 year deal as an insurance to an insurance that is keeping the seat warm for Corey Seager whom BTW struggled at high A after moving up from low A last season. he has another year needed at high A, then move up to AA before he is even invited to a spring training. i hope he can gain some confidence and his swing back to be ready by the start of 2016.

[Quake Griffin]

If Juan is the Juan i know...he'll come into ST fat, out of shape and hurt his back and only play 50 games this season....maybe less.

i'll hold out a small percentage of hope for him because:
1) the loss to the cardinals should have us bitter
2) the culture of this team just seems great with these players...and I think him, puig and Hanley all rub off on each other...Particularly I think Hanley and Puig are just checked into this zone of intrinsic motivation. Hanley was incredible last year...AND HIS DEFENSIVE METRICS DIDNT SUCK at all if u check fan graphs.
3) cot damn, his glove was amazing last year...top 2 or 3 if not the best in the majors last year...please sure up that 3B bag again.


I'm kind of upset that Seager doesn't seem to be on the fast track like I thought he would be. But i dunno if that makes me actually worry about him as a player or just worry about the timing of him coming up in relation to Juan's contract.


still sort of upset that no OFs got dealt at the winter meetings.
we've basically said eff it and rolled the dice on Matt Kemp coming back to form.
if I'm the FO...i get to him early and say..."look, since we traded you...take your time rehabbing...we don't want you rushing back for ST just so u can suck"

don't want to see him play a baseball game until June man.

[Neddy]

hmmm... i don't remember saying Hanley's defense last year sucked, although he did suck a year before that.

anywho, Juan's glove has never been questioned, and i don't think it will disappear anytime soon. it is his conditioning, as you have mentioned, and his motivation that will be questioned. i think if juan can muster .250 or better BA with just above .300 OBP, and close to .400 SLG, he would be earning his paycheck. anything below, would require us having A) michael young play everyday 3rd base B)AAA player Daniel Mayora, (as Elian Herrera is playing for the Milwaukee Brewers, and no other infielder in minors who are major league ready as at least of a replacement player's value) or C) go out and sign a utility guy who can be an insurance to play everyday at 3rd, which is hard to find.

just gotta hope that Juan can find some motivation while horsing around with Puig, Hanley, and Ryu.

[Quake Griffin]

don't trip. I just thought i remembered you getting on him during the year about his defense.

the log jam at OF.
dont u think someone should go?
i mean...if ur not gonna move any of those guys...shouldnt u move Joc Pederson so u can get the most value for him?

[Neddy]

the one to go is crawford. .736 OPS and 108 OPS+ is not worth even half of his salary. the problem is, in order to move him, we would have to eat a half or more of his remaining 82.5 million dollars in salary. Andre Ethier's struggle against lefties is blown out of proportion, as his OPS+ is 122, which is on par with his career numbers. and he is much cheaper, and a little bit younger. if we are gonna sell Kemp, we need to let him recover and perform better so we can sell him higher than where he is right now, which is the rock bottom.

as far as Crawford being a leadoff hitter, he is grossly overrated because he haven't had a guy who could actually fill that roll well for a long time. Carl used to be a very good all around player, but that hasn't been the case for years now, and Joc does provide not only SB abilities and HR capacity, but his OBP is about .050 points higher than carl ever was at the same age/minor league level. Joc is definitely the leadoff type of the future.

[Quake Griffin]

i don't discuss trading Crawford because I don't assume that we can trade him.

he's not worth it and he has a stigma about him and his deal.
so i discuss Dre and Kemp.

but i want Joc up this year.