Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[hands11]

I don't buy the peaking argument. Wall, Beal and Porter should all get considerably better...wall might get incrementally better as he approaches he moves past his mid 20s. Ariza/Webster will be who they are now for at least another 3-4 years as I suspect the same with Gortat. The issue is Nene...The FO needs to develop a plan to replace his production. I think Our young 3 top 3 picks increase in overall productivity might be offset by Nene's decline in 2 years (I think in some ways he is "declining" but he's still an above average player out there). So while I'm concerned that we don't have an Ersan or T. Young to replace Nene, I think it is something we can overcome this season if Porter proves to meet his pedigree and we maximize Ariza's trade value.

Of course we got to see how Porter plays out over the next month.

Oh, yeah and **** ERNIE UP THE ASS

It's not about our young players of Wall/Beal/Porter peaking, its about the collective team.

How does this team get better buy using all of the cap on veterans who aren't going to get any better? We also don't have a 1st rounder next year to add to the bench.

The allocation of resources is the reason why this franchise will take a step back next year and that may be when Ted finally realizes he has an idiot in the front office.

See, that's where you lose me. First, you don't know where their peak is this year. Nor do I. That's why the next 10 games are key. If they do as I projected, they are on a great path. Playoffs are in their sight. And "if" they can get out of the first round, then Wall and Beal would have experienced and learned a lot this year.

From there, they have two paths. One is keep it going. The other is a soft reboot to retool around Wall and Beal who are young still and who would have grown a lot by making it into the playoff battle. Beal is only 20. Taking a moderate step back isn't a failure. Its an option. I always outlined it that way so if I see them do that, I won't flip out like some here will.

This kind of rebuild was always going to present this fork in the road after this year. But regardless of which path they take, they still have Wall and Beal. Just so we are clear, other teams will need to make decisions as well.

I was mostly joking when I outlined Indy's issue, I figured more of you would catch that, but while writing that out, it did dawn on me that even they will have some tough choices to make. They will be at 66M and need to sign Lance or lose him. Plus they gave up their pick just like we did.

As for SA, yeah, they are awesome. Its no secret that I admire how they do things over there. We will see where they end up when they lose Duncan and Manu. Their production might not be what it once was but they are clearly leaders on that team.

[hands11]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

Don't forget, it's also very possible to miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Best of both worlds. And EG extended would cap another perfect season.

And right now where would you put those odds that we miss the playoff ?

[hands11]

I don't buy the peaking argument. Wall, Beal and Porter should all get considerably better...wall might get incrementally better as he approaches he moves past his mid 20s. Ariza/Webster will be who they are now for at least another 3-4 years as I suspect the same with Gortat. The issue is Nene...The FO needs to develop a plan to replace his production. I think Our young 3 top 3 picks increase in overall productivity might be offset by Nene's decline in 2 years (I think in some ways he is "declining" but he's still an above average player out there). So while I'm concerned that we don't have an Ersan or T. Young to replace Nene, I think it is something we can overcome this season if Porter proves to meet his pedigree and we maximize Ariza's trade value.

Of course we got to see how Porter plays out over the next month.

Oh, yeah and **** ERNIE UP THE ASS

It's not about our young players of Wall/Beal/Porter peaking, its about the collective team.

How does this team get better buy using all of the cap on veterans who aren't going to get any better? We also don't have a 1st rounder next year to add to the bench.

The allocation of resources is the reason why this franchise will take a step back next year and that may be when Ted finally realizes he has an idiot in the front office.

I'm not going to argue that the allocation of resources has been "good" or even average for that matter but regarding the other core pieces sans Nene, how much better do you expect them to be? Ariza is playing phenomenally well for his standards and webster seems still to be legit. While Gortat isn't a top 5 center he's holding his own and should do so for the next 3 seasons. What I do agree with is that has been a catastrophic failure in our drafting of bigs. We REALLY needed one of Seraphin/Jan/Booker to become starting quality players so they could offset Nene 3-4 years from now. They haven't, so we're semi screwed. EG would have to find a gem in the '15 class cause I figure we ought to be a little better next season then we are now so we may actually pick in the 20s.

I still think the future is salvageable though via an Ariza trade. They can go hard on win now mode and try to get a quality backup Center and PG or (what I would prefer) try to acquire Ersan or T. Young, both of whom, should be starting quality 4s for the next 4-5 years.

Pretty on track with what I was saying only, I don't see Ersan as the answer.

A big part in what gives me some confidence about what they can do this year has to do with the Nene/Gortat combination. Not sure you can credit one without the other but what Nene brings is huge. The way he powers to the basket and spins, getw fouled, etc very valuable. Specially when you add the way he passes. And he is one of the leaders on the team. Players like Howard are younger, can jump higher, etc., but I am no Howard fan. He is no leader. Replacing Nene is not going to be easy.

Eventually, they are going to have to draft well in the later picks to keep this going. Good news is, after this years record, they should be able to attract better front office help to do that.

Gortat was a 57th pick.
DeAndre Jordan was 35th

I see a to centers in the 2015 mock. That's good.

[hands11]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

And if the Zards resign Gortat they will have likely locked up a player who is more productive and more instrumental to building a contender than a mid-first round pick.

There's a lot of reasons to fire EG but I don't think the trade for Gortat is one of them.

Signing Gortat is completely independent of whether they traded for him or not. As bad as the east is this year, the Wizards could have kept Okafor, strive to win half their games which should be good enough to make the playoffs this year, and then sign Gortat in the off season. Had they done this, they would have had a pretty good shot at getting everything (ie, the playoffs, Gortat, and the first round pick).

Basically they are renting Gortat for a season to help them make the playoffs when they should be able to achieve that goal without him.

And here we go again. Back to the beginning of the logic circle. Because they wouldn't be winning without Gortat. That will lead to EG sucks because he didn't add the right talent to win. And since they wouldn't have won, Gortat would likely not have come here over better options. Wall would not have grown as much and likely never learned the pick and roll he runs so beautifully already. Nor would Beal have grown as much. Nor Otto.

Which is why they got Gortat and will actually be in the running to resign him.

[hands11]

I like Gortat, but we traded for him from a position of weakness -- that's why we were forced into giving up the pick.

Why were we in a position of weakness? Because we had no depth up front.

Why did we have no depth of up front? Because Seraphin, Vesely, and Booker have all been somewhere between horrible and mediocre, and because we gave the BAE to Eric Maynor when we could have given it to Dajuan Blair.

I like the Gortat acquisition in a vacuum, but it's a clear illustration of how poorly Ernie has managed assets. I am hoping that we get lucky such that losing one mid-first round pick doesn't come back to bite us in the ass all that hard.

If I had only read one more post before making mine.

[Ruzious]

Thank you, fishercob. Yes, things are going just as the naysayers predicted the moment we traded Shart for Okafor. Frankly, we are extremely lucky that things didn't go worse. We should have had the 8th pick in the draft, not the 3rd and we'd have ended up with KCP or McCollum. As the naysayers said over and over again, the smart move would have been to buy out Lewis, sign Ryan Anderson plus an amnestied stopgap big like Brand or Haywood. We would have had max cap room this past offseason plus a core player at PF already in place.

To riff off of something that PIF just said, How many times are we going to use Ryan Anderson to flog EG for the moves he made during the 2012 off season? Yes, MAYBE the smart move would have been to sign Anderson, but it's pure speculation to suggest that Anderson would have ended up signing with the Zards. And might Webster at $5 mil a season actually be a much better deal than Anderson at $8 mil?

The real question is - why do you bring up the exact same arguments so many times and expect different answers?

[hands11]

There's a 100% chance that luck will play a role. You can look at the fortunes of every team in the league and cite examples of how things went one way when they could have gone another. It's just the nature of life.

I do not agree that management implies a specific plan of action. How could it -- circumstances change, opportunities crop up, values fluctuate, etc. Your action plan just can't be that specific when you're planning for the long term. You have general guiding principles that you do your best to stay true to, but within that you react to the landscape.

Fine. Luck always plays a role. But there's good luck and bad luck.

From where we are now, given our future picks available, our future cap space available, the age of our players, and the management in place, I think the chances of bad things happening to diminish our future chances are now just as likely as the chances of good things happening to improve them. I therefore assert that we have peaked from a team building perspective. As such, I say that we need to seriously explore trades that maximize the height of that peak, i.e. trading developing prospects for prospects who are currently in their prime.

If you want to argue that Porter for Ilyasova is bad from a value perspective, that's fine. That's an argument that can persuade me. But if you want to argue that we shouldn't trade the 20 year old Porter for the 26 year old Ilyasova because it'll diminish our future prosperity, I'm unimpressed. I see a roughly 3-4 year plateau with this crew, I'd rather have that plateau be a little higher rather than a little longer. We can then reboot.

Your last two post lay out the two paths that are there. Which they take, we just don't know. But there are viable paths. And luck

And an option for a new GM as soon as this season or the end of it.

[LyricalRico]

I've asked you repeatedly, maybe this time you'll answer: why do you think Ernie G. is a good GM? You're obviously an intelligent person; you write well, you have interesting trade ideas, etc. Is it really not possible for you to say what you like about Ernie's work over the years? And if not, why?

As I've said before, I'm not going to rehash my thoughts on every move of EG's tenure. I haven't agreed with every move, but more often than not I've felt they were reasonable at the time. Feel free to go through the threads before you joined if you really want to see what I've posted over the years.

And if the team flops this year, I've already endorsed a change. Let's see if they can continue the current run they're on and then we'll see what the future holds.

Go Wiz!

[montestewart]

Charlotte currently has the eight spot in the east with an 8-11 record. That means it is conceivable that the Wizards could win 35 games, make the playoffs as the eight seed, and lose their first round pick as part of the Marcin Gortat trade. Can we please fire EG now.

Don't forget, it's also very possible to miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Best of both worlds. And EG extended would cap another perfect season.

And right now where would you put those odds that we miss the playoff ?

We will see what we will see.

[payitforward]

There's a 100% chance that luck will play a role. You can look at the fortunes of every team in the league and cite examples of how things went one way when they could have gone another. It's just the nature of life.

I do not agree that management implies a specific plan of action. How could it -- circumstances change, opportunities crop up, values fluctuate, etc. Your action plan just can't be that specific when you're planning for the long term. You have general guiding principles that you do your best to stay true to, but within that you react to the landscape.

Why did we trade two picks for Glen Rice Jr when we had Porter, Beal, Webster and Ariza in tow? For the same reason the Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins, right? The value was too good for them to pass up based on where he was picked. Maybe he becomes a chip in a trade -- or maybe he gets so good where we can trade Beal. That's simple opportunism. It may not work and our decision-makers certainly have a worse track record than lots of their peers, but hey, Martell Webster.

How many times do we get to use Martell Webster to defend decisions by our FO? Is that what you're doing? He is working out -- stay healthy, Martell! -- but tell me some other marvelous FA signing we've made please.

Your argument re: Rice proves the opposite of what you want it to prove, or so it seems to me -- we traded a guy who already looks better than Rice, along w/ another pick, to be opportunistic!

This is an odd response to one post that was part of a larger discussion.

My mention of Webster in this instance was not to defend anything -- it was a folksy shoulder shrug alluding something along the lines of nuts and blind squirrels.

As to Wolters-Rice, what types of conclusions are you comfortable drawing based on the sample size? Obviously the sample on Wolters is much larger, and he doesn't seem to be helping Milwaukee win so much.

Yeah, I didn't quite grok context.... sorry.

[payitforward]

I've asked you repeatedly, maybe this time you'll answer: why do you think Ernie G. is a good GM? You're obviously an intelligent person; you write well, you have interesting trade ideas, etc. Is it really not possible for you to say what you like about Ernie's work over the years? And if not, why?

As I've said before, I'm not going to rehash my thoughts on every move of EG's tenure. I haven't agreed with every move, but more often than not I've felt they were reasonable at the time. Feel free to go through the threads before you joined if you really want to see what I've posted over the years.

And if the team flops this year, I've already endorsed a change. Let's see if they can continue the current run they're on and then we'll see what the future holds.

Go Wiz!

I'm not interested in going back over what you've posted, and certainly not in your "rehash"ing anything. What I asked for was your analysis, your reasoning, and it's clearly something you are quite determined not to lay out.

I find it fascinating that you avoid this subject in such a blinkered way. And equally that the "endorsement" of change you refer to sets such a low bar to justify Ernie's retention. Hard not to feel there's some tie there between you and the organization or between you and Ernie or... something.

If that's the case, it's not a problem in itself; why shouldn't there be? And since nothing said here impacts any actual decision, there's not even a compelling issue of forthrightness.

It might be interesting to create a contrarian thread -- ask people to list a few good reasons to praise and retain Ernie. I wonder whether you'd participate. But I'm not going to create that thread, at least not right now.

[hands11]

I'm not interested in trading Beal, nor am I interested in trading Porter at the moment. But I'm open to anything.

And I think the "we're peaking and there's not much upside beyond this" crowd should consider trading Beal before trading Porter because Beal has so much more value on the open market right now. We're winning without Beal; he's not all that productive yet. MOving him could help us add a star player or close to a team that already has a strong top six.

Personally, I think such a move would be short-sited and it illustrates why trading Porter would be as well.

The problem I have with the "peaking" crowd is that many of them are the same people who thought the world was coming to an end when the Zards traded for Okafor/Ariza and that EG overpaid for Webster. I think they've been proven wrong on both counts. So I'm not to eager to see the Zards make personnel moves and decisions based on that crowd's analysis.

[montestewart]

I've asked you repeatedly, maybe this time you'll answer: why do you think Ernie G. is a good GM? You're obviously an intelligent person; you write well, you have interesting trade ideas, etc. Is it really not possible for you to say what you like about Ernie's work over the years? And if not, why?

As I've said before, I'm not going to rehash my thoughts on every move of EG's tenure. I haven't agreed with every move, but more often than not I've felt they were reasonable at the time. Feel free to go through the threads before you joined if you really want to see what I've posted over the years.

And if the team flops this year, I've already endorsed a change. Let's see if they can continue the current run they're on and then we'll see what the future holds.

Go Wiz!

I'm not interested in going back over what you've posted, and certainly not in your "rehash"ing anything. What I asked for was your analysis, your reasoning, and it's clearly something you are quite determined not to lay out.

I find it fascinating that you avoid this subject in such a blinkered way. And equally that the "endorsement" of change you refer to sets such a low bar to justify Ernie's retention. Hard not to feel there's some tie there between you and the organization or between you and Ernie or... something.

If that's the case, it's not a problem in itself; why shouldn't there be? And since nothing said here impacts any actual decision, there's not even a compelling issue of forthrightness.

It might be interesting to create a contrarian thread -- ask people to list a few good reasons to praise and retain Ernie. I wonder whether you'd participate. But I'm not going to create that thread, at least not right now.

PIF, I've never really gotten LyricalRico's affection for EG, but since he's about the nicest guy around and he was very welcoming when I first got here, I just accept it as a steadfast differing opinion that I don't understand. He probably doesn't get my pathological dislike of EG any better. After all, it takes many colors to make a Wizards rainbow.

[hands11]

Don't forget, it's also very possible to miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Best of both worlds. And EG extended would cap another perfect season.

And right now where would you put those odds that we miss the playoff ?

We will see what we will see.

Was just wondering what "very possible" translated to.

[montestewart]

Hands, you're right, in light of how hard EC teams are tanking and how the NYC teams seem to be imploding, it's not as likely that the Wizards miss the playoffs. I might have said 30-35% chance at the start, but I'm thinking more in the 20% range, and that would probably be due to some messed up injury luck. If they do miss the playoffs, they will probably just miss (there seems to be too much talent for them to fall much further) and they would then still lose the pick. I'll go with a 15-20% chance that happens, which is not a very good chance, but it would sure suck.

[payitforward]

As I've said before, I'm not going to rehash my thoughts on every move of EG's tenure. I haven't agreed with every move, but more often than not I've felt they were reasonable at the time. Feel free to go through the threads before you joined if you really want to see what I've posted over the years.

And if the team flops this year, I've already endorsed a change. Let's see if they can continue the current run they're on and then we'll see what the future holds.

Go Wiz!

I'm not interested in going back over what you've posted, and certainly not in your "rehash"ing anything. What I asked for was your analysis, your reasoning, and it's clearly something you are quite determined not to lay out.

I find it fascinating that you avoid this subject in such a blinkered way. And equally that the "endorsement" of change you refer to sets such a low bar to justify Ernie's retention. Hard not to feel there's some tie there between you and the organization or between you and Ernie or... something.

If that's the case, it's not a problem in itself; why shouldn't there be? And since nothing said here impacts any actual decision, there's not even a compelling issue of forthrightness.

It might be interesting to create a contrarian thread -- ask people to list a few good reasons to praise and retain Ernie. I wonder whether you'd participate. But I'm not going to create that thread, at least not right now.

PIF, I've never really gotten LyricalRico's affection for EG, but since he's about the nicest guy around and he was very welcoming when I first got here, I just accept it as a steadfast differing opinion that I don't understand. He probably doesn't get my pathological dislike of EG any better. After all, it takes many colors to make a Wizards rainbow.

You are right; a great guy and a great poster. We just have to be kind to him and hope he gets past this difficult spot in life and come to understand that Ernie must go... yesterday!

Even if not, he's a nice guy and one of the good colors of that Wiz rainbow you evoke!

[hands11]

Hands, you're right, in light of how hard EC teams are tanking and how the NYC teams seem to be imploding, it's not as likely that the Wizards miss the playoffs. I might have said 30-35% chance at the start, but I'm thinking more in the 20% range, and that would probably be due to some messed up injury luck. If they do miss the playoffs, they will probably just miss (there seems to be too much talent for them to fall much further) and they would then still lose the pick. I'll go with a 15-20% chance that happens, which is not a very good chance, but it would sure suck.

Yes, that would suck.

Speaking of suck. How is MIL this bad ?

[Nivek]

I wrote about this topic a few weeks ago over at the blog. I think nate is right about the Wizards basically peaking now. They're in a situation where they don't have a real way to ADD talent. Signing a "brand name" (high-priced) free agent will mean the departure of players that are part of their current core. There's just no way around it. This offseason they'll have to choose between re-signing their key free agents (Gortat and Ariza) or REPLACING them with other players. And, they probably won't have a first round pick next year.

Plus, there's no guarantee they can keep either of those guys -- they're both unrestricted free agents.

Any improvement the team makes will come from a) the marginal difference between Gortat, Ariza and the team's other departing free agents and the new players they're able to acquire, and/or b) better production from the young players currently on the roster.

One of the issues I addressed in my blog post was this: Why would a free agent sign with the Wizards? He cannot JOIN a playoff team -- his arrival will mean the departure of Gortat and/or Ariza. At best, he can only replace one (or both) of those guys. The team will still lack depth of talent. I guess the hope has to be that free agents might be attracted to the notion of playing with young players like Wall, Beal and Porter. That could happen. But, it's a narrow path to becoming a contender. Unnecessarily narrow, in my view.

The words that come to mind when I think of the team Grunfeld has constructed (and its long-term prospects): "house of cards."

You and I are almost always in agreement, Kev (proving what an intelligent fellow you are!), and your analysis is on the money. Yet... it's incomplete. We have limited flexibility, but there are always underestimated, solid players available to fill out a roster and keep improving. And Round 2 of the draft always contains gems. So there are ways to get younger and better.

But, they depend on a good GM, whereas we have an incompetent FO. More concretely, having blown the 2010 draft (after the pick of Wall), the 2011 draft (all 3 picks!), the 2012 round 2, and the 2013 round 2 -- we don't have the young core to propel us to be contenders. Having made idiotic trades and FA acquisitions (w/ a couple of exceptions to be sure...), we've thrown away most of the assets that could have made that possible.

Still.... An outstanding GM could rescue this situation.

Complete agreement on all counts. The team can still get contributors IF they draft well. Which they haven't done with the current management team, or if they can do a good job finding bargains in the free agency mid-range -- something else they haven't done very well. Since it's now looking more and more like Grunfeld will stay, there's no real reason to think they're going to do better drafting in the mid-first round or in the 2nd round. And there's not much reason to think they'll reliably find free agent bargains.

[jivelikenice]

There are gems in Rd 2, but you're not going to hit on Rd 2 picks every year so to say we blew Rd 2 picks every year from '10 on is arguing a point that wasn't realistic to occur anyways. That being said we also have no idea if our '12 Rd 2 pick was wasted yet and we also don't know about Glen Rice Jr. I don't know how you could include them in your analysis as "blown" picks. One guy has been on the roster a total of 16 games and the other guy is developing overseas and hasn't been brought over yet.

[Dat2U]

I wish this was our GM...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/ ... r-rebuild/

But the Raptors aren’t fooled by the easy lure of a playoff spot. If anything, that would complicate matters. A playoff spot would create the temptation or expectation to re-sign Lowry or extend Gay, not to mention yield a mid-to-late first-round pick in a season when the Raptors desperately need and want to be in the lottery.

No folks, the rebuild is underway.

...

Playoffs or bust isn’t the mantra. The goal is a long-term solution to years of on-court woes. There is an awareness that there is no quick fix.